4-0у/л:/
N0RrH CAROLINA STATE LIBRARY
“ PHSB STUDIES
n. a
Doc.
«ЙЮ
1 5 to/d
A Special Report Series by the N.C. Department of Human Resources, Division of
Health Services, Public Health Statistics Branch, P.0. Box 2091, Raleigh, N.C.
No. 1 January 1977
DIVORCE, MARRIAGE AND REMARRIAGE
PROBABILITIES IN NORTH CAROLINA
(With Implications for Fertility)
As custodian of the official records of all marriages and divorces occurring in
North Carolina, the Division of Health Services routinely reports county-specific
numbers and rates and, during the past year, prepared a descriptive report of the
characteristics of persons involved in these proceedings (1). We have not, however,
previously computed marriage and divorce probabilities due to the fact that, except
for Census years, we lacked population bases specific for marital status.
The situation has now been remedied by virtue of using the geometric growth
formula (2) to produce intercensal and postcensal population estimates specific for
age, race, sex and marital status. While these estimates are known to be associated
with some error (due to accelerated changes in marital behavior), we believe the
growth formula minimizes the errors. Still, the reader should keep in mind that
divorce probabilities presented here are probably understated while some marriage
probabilities would tend to be overstated.
The reader should also be aware that marriage and divorce data are for N.C.
occurrences rather than events to N.C. residents. In the case of divorce, the plain¬
tiff (by law) must reside in the State but neither party to marriage is required to
be a resident. Thus, probabilities of this paper are subject to bias to the extent
that occurrences to out-of-state residents are not offset by out-of-state occurrences
to N.C. residents. The extent of this bias is unknown, but the 1975 marriage file
shows that both bride and groom were N.C. residents S]% of the time; one or the other
was a resident an additional 8 % of the time (l).
Trends
MARRIAGE ANO DIVORCE RATES
PER 1,000 POPULATION
NORTH CAROLINA, 1965-1975
According to provisional statistics for
the first 9 months of 1976, North Carolina has
just experienced its tenth year of uninter¬
rupted increase in the divorce rate and its
fifth year of decline in the marriage rate.
These trends raise questions as to the changing
probabilities for divorce, marriage and remar¬
riage among different age-race-sex groups of
the State's population and correspond i ng effects
upon such crucial planning indices as the fer¬
tility rate.
Unfortunately, N.C. divorce registrations
do not provide age, race and sex detail except
for race of the plaintiff. These data are used in Table 1 to compare divorce prob-
abilties in 1975 to those observed in 1965. Entries are the number of divorces per
1,000 women, specific for race of the plaintiff. Results show that while the prob¬
ability of divorce is still greater for whites than for nonwhites, the nonwhite popu¬
lation appears to have experienced the greater increase in probability over the past
decade .
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
65
DIVORCE RATE
66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75
