|J|oUTH N9W
| Program on Southern
Politics, Media and
Public Life
The Center for the Study
of the American South
The University
of North Carolina
at Chapel Hill
AUGUST 2004 • NUMBER 37
WWW.SOUTHNOW.ORG
Thad Beyle
Editor & Associate Director
beyle@iemail.unc.edu
|ohn Quinterno
Managing Editor & Assistant Director
jq@unc.edu
Ferrel Guillory
Publisher& Director
guilbry@unc.edu
Ferrel Guillory directs the Program on
Southern Politics, Media and Public
Lite and serves as a Lecturer in the
School ot Journalism and Mass
Communication at The University ot
North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
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In This Issue
2 North Carolina Voter Trends
4 NC Congressional Elections
6 1988 and 1992 Select General
Election Results
7 1996 and 2000 Select General
Election Results
9 Campaign Expenditures
10 Historical Voting Returns
11 Political Geography
■ NORTH CAROLINA
data-net
2004 North Carolina Election Primer
Thad Beyle, Pearsall professor of political science, UNC-Chapel Hill
John Quinterno, assistant director, Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life
This fall. North Carolinians will cast ballots for U.S.
President, U.S. Senator, 13 U.S. Representatives,
Governor, nine members of the Council of State.
170 state legislators, 5 appellate-level judges, and
numerous local officials.
The presence of U.S. Sen. John Edwards on the
Democratic ticket as the vice-presidential nominee
will add a different dimension to Election 2004.
Edwards is the first Tar Heel resident to receive a
major party's vice-presidential nomination since
1852, when the Whig Party nominated William
Alexander Graham.
November's elections will occur in a state with a
political climate and geography that has changed
rapidly over the last 30 years. To help journalists,
scholars, citizens, and public leaders better follow
the campaigns and analyze November's results, this
issue of North Carolina Data Net offers information
on the political and demographic trends that have
molded the state's political context.
Here are some findings to guide your reading of
the data:
♦ The number of registered voters in North Carolina
now numbers 5.1 million, up 147 percent since
1968. Meanwhile, the number of people actually
voting continues to grow. Slightly more than 3 mil¬
lion Tar Heels cast ballots in 2000 — a 90 percent
increase from 1968.
♦ Neither political party in North Carolina commands
a majority of popular support. The fastest growing
segment of the electorate in recent years has
been unaffiliated voters, who now comprise 18.1
percent of the electorate. Today, the percentage
of unaffiliated voters in North Carolina exceeds
the percentage of Republican voters who lived in
the state in 1966.
♦ Political parity characterizes the two major parties
in North Carolina. One U.S. Senator is a Republican,
the other a Democrat. Similarly, 7 U.S. Representa¬
tives are Republicans, and 6 are Democrats. On
the state level, the North Carolina House of
Representatives is divided equally between the
two parties, while Democrats hold a slight
majority in the state Senate.
♦ Metropolitan areas drive statewide elections. In the
2000 presidential contest, 15 counties — almost all
of which were located in the Piedmont — cast 51.1
percent of the vote. The continued growth of metros
has resulted in a relative decline in the importance
of the state's rural vote and an increased emphasis
on metropolitan needs and issues.
♦ The political lineage of this year's contested U.S.
Senate seat traditionally has had a distinct western
tinge since 1872. Yet no westerner has been
elected to the seat since Sen. Sam Ervin from
Burke County won his last term in 1968.
♦ Between 1972 and 1998, Republicans won every
U.S. Senate race in the presidential election
years. In the off-presidential years Democrats
won the Senate races, except when Jesse Helms
was on the ballot. In 2002, Republican Elizabeth
Dole picked up where Helms left off, winning
the seat Helms vacated in an off-presidential
year. The 2004 Senate election will test the trend
of Republicans winning in presidential years.
♦ Though the partisan line-up of North Carolina's
delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives
is unlikely to change, there will be at least three
new U.S. Representatives. Rep. Richard BurrfR-
5th District) has chosen to run for the U.S. Senate
rather than stand for reelection, while neither
Rep. Cass Ballenger (R-1 0th District) nor Rep. Frank
Ballance (D-1st District) is seeking reelection.
According to NCFREE, a nonpartisan, pro-business
research group based in Raleigh, only one con¬
gressional district — the 8th District — rates as
a swing district, meaning that either party could
capture the seat currently held by Republican
Rep. Robin Hayes.
SEE 2004 ELECTION PRIMER ON PAGE 12 •
