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Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 i Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 This document contains the technical support for North Carolina’s Division of Air Quality to request the Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point fine particulate matter nonattainment areas be redesignated as attainment for the annual fine particulate matter national ambient air quality standard pursuant to §§107(d)(3)(D) and (E) of the Clean Air Act, as amended. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 ii Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Fine particulate matter, also known as fine particles and PM2.5, refers to airborne particles less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers in diameter. Fine particles are treated as though they are a single pollutant, but they come from many different sources and are composed of many different compounds. PM2.5 exposure adversely affects human health, especially respiratory and cardiovascular systems. Individuals particularly sensitive to PM2.5 exposure include children, people with heart and lung disease, and older adults. A variety of meteorological and geographic factors influence the concentration levels of fine particles, including both the regional and local distribution of urbanized areas, primary and precursor emissions sources, and natural features such as oceans and forests. PM2.5 concentrations can also be high and exceed the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQSs) for fine particulate matter at any time of the year. Therefore, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) mandates the year round monitoring of PM2.5 concentrations throughout the country. The nonattainment designation was an action taken by the USEPA under Section 107(d) of the Clean Air Act (CAA). The CAA requires that some areas be designated as nonattainment if a monitor is found to be in violation of a NAAQS. The USEPA took designation action in 2005 based on the ambient data from 2001-2003. At that time, the design value for Hickory area (Catawba County) was 15.6 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m3) and the design value for the Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point area (Davidson and Guilford Counties, referred to as the Triad area) was 15.9 μg/m3. The most recent three years of fine particulate monitoring data (2006-2008) for both the Hickory and Triad PM2.5 nonattainment areas demonstrate compliance with the annual fine particulate matter NAAQS. The three year design value at the Hickory monitor is 14.2 μg/m3. In the Triad nonattainment area, the three year design value at the Lexington monitor is 14.5 μg/m3 and the three year design value at the Mendenhall monitor is 12.9 μg/m3. Additionally, the annual design values at all three sites are trending downward. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 iii Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The State of North Carolina has implemented permanent and enforceable reductions in sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which are precursors to fine particulates. These actions include implementing the on-board diagnostic vehicle inspection and maintenance program that began on July 1, 2002, and an open burning ban during air quality action days. In addition, there have been several State rules that have resulted in reductions in emissions within and surrounding the nonattainment area. These State actions include the NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call, the Clean Smokestacks Act legislation, and heavy-duty engine stop-gap rule for model years 2005 and 2006. Finally, several actions at the Federal level by the USEPA have resulted in lower emissions throughout the eastern portion of the country. These Federal actions include the Tier 2 engine standards for light and medium duty vehicles, heavy-duty engine standards, the low sulfur gasoline and diesel requirements, and off-road engine standards. This combination of State and Federal actions has resulted in cleaner air in the PM2.5 nonattainment areas, and the anticipated future benefits from these programs are expected to result in continued maintenance of the 1997 annual PM2.5 NAAQS in this region. A baseline year emissions inventory for NOx, SO2, and direct PM2.5 was developed for 2008, since the design value for the 2006-2008 period showed attainment of the 1997 annual PM2.5 NAAQS. Future year emissions inventories were also developed for the interim years 2011, 2014, 2017, and a final year emission inventory was developed for 2021. The future year emissions were lower than the 2008 emissions in all cases. This demonstrates that the PM2.5 nonattainment areas are expected to maintain the 1997 annual PM2.5 NAAQS through 2021, since in no future year are the emissions expected to be greater than they were in the baseline year. The areas are also in compliance with Section 110 and Part D requirements of the CAA. Based on the information above and criteria established in Section 107(d)(3)(E) of the CAA, North Carolina is requesting that the USEPA redesignate the Hickory and Greensboro/Winston- Salem/High Point fine particulate matter nonattainment areas to attainment. The monitoring data clearly shows that the region has attained the annual fine particulate matter standard, and the maintenance demonstration shows that the future emission inventories are expected to be lower than the attainment year inventory through the implementation of the various control measures listed above. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 iv Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ ii 1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 WHAT IS FINE PARTICULATE MATTER? ................................................................. 1-1 1.2 CLEAN AIR ACT OF 1990 .............................................................................................. 1-2 1.3 AIR QUALITY HISTORY ............................................................................................... 1-2 1.4 CLEAN AIR ACT REDESIGNATION CRITERIA ........................................................ 1-3 2.0 AIR QUALITY ...................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 HISTORIC AIR QUALITY (1999 – 2007) ...................................................................... 2-1 2.2 RECENT AIR QUALITY VALUES (2006 –2008) ......................................................... 2-3 2.3 PERMANENT AND ENFORCEABLE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ........................... 2-4 3.0 MAINTENANCE PLAN ....................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 CONCEPT OF NORTH CAROLINA'S MAINTENANCE PLAN ................................. 3-1 3.2 FOUNDATION CONTROL PROGRAM ........................................................................ 3-2 3.2.1 Federal Control Measures .......................................................................................... 3-2 3.2.2 State Control Measures .............................................................................................. 3-5 3.2.3 Additional Programs Supporting Maintenance .......................................................... 3-9 3.3 EMISSIONS INVENTORIES AND MAINTENANCE DEMONSTRATION ............. 3-10 3.3.1 Theory of Approach ................................................................................................. 3-10 3.3.2 Emission Inventories ................................................................................................ 3-11 3.3.3 Summary of Emissions ............................................................................................ 3-15 3.3.4 Maintenance Demonstration .................................................................................... 3-16 3.4 CONTINGENCY PLAN ................................................................................................. 3-17 3.4.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. 3-17 3.4.2 Primary and Secondary Triggers ............................................................................. 3-18 3.4.3 Action Resulting From Trigger Activation .............................................................. 3-19 3.4.4 Tracking Program for Ongoing Maintenance .......................................................... 3-20 4.0 MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS BUDGET FOR CONFORMITY ................................... 4-1 4.1 TRANSPORTATION CONFORMITY ............................................................................ 4-1 4.2 POLLUTANTS TO BE CONSIDERED ........................................................................... 4-1 4.2.1 Precursor Pollutants NOx, VOC, and Ammonia ........................................................ 4-2 4.2.2 Reentrained Road Dust .............................................................................................. 4-2 4.2.3 Precursor Pollutant SO2 ............................................................................................. 4-3 4.2.4 Direct PM2.5 Emissions .............................................................................................. 4-5 4.3 SAFETY MARGIN ........................................................................................................... 4-7 4.4 MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGETS ................................................................... 4-7 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 v Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 4.5 NEW SAFETY MARGINS ............................................................................................ 4-10 5.0 STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN APPROVAL ............................................................. 5-1 5.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 5-1 5.2 EVIDENCE OF COMPLIANCE ...................................................................................... 5-1 6.0 STATE COMPLIANCE WITH CLEAN AIR ACT REQUIREMENTS.............................. 6-1 7.0 CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................................... 7-1 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 vi Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 APPENDIX A: CORRESPONDENCE AND GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS APPENDIX B: STAKEHOLDER CORRESPONDENCE REGARDING MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGETS APPENDIX C.1: POINT SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY DOCUMENTATION APPENDIX C.2: AREA SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY DOCUMENTATION APPENDIX C.3: ON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY DOCUMENTATION APPENDIX C.4: NONROAD MOBILE SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY DOCUMENTATION APPENDIX D: MENDENHALL DATA REPLACEMENT DOCUMENTATION APPENDIX E: PUBLIC NOTICE REPORT, COMMENTS RECEIVED AND RESPONSES Table 2-1 Historic PM2.5 Annual Averages (1999-2007) ............................................................ 2-2 Table 2-2 Historic PM2.5 Design Values (2000 – 2007) .............................................................. 2-3 Table 2-3 Current PM2.5 Data (2006 -2008) ................................................................................ 2-4 Table 2-4. Annual Emissions from NC Sources in USEPA Acid Rain Database ....................... 2-7 Table 2-5. Annual SO2 Emissions for Utilities Near the PM2.5 Nonattainment areas (tons/year) 2-9 Table 3-1 OBDII Phase-in Effective Dates ................................................................................. 3-6 Table 3-2 I/M NOx Benefits by County ....................................................................................... 3-6 Table 3-3 Estimated Emission Reductions from Open Burning Regulation ............................... 3-8 Table 3-4. Point Source NOx Emissions (tons per year) ............................................................ 3-11 Table 3-5 Point Source SO2 Emissions (tons per year) ............................................................. 3-12 Table 3-6. Point Source PM2.5 Emissions (tons per year) .......................................................... 3-12 Table 3-7. Area Source NOx Emissions (tons per year) ............................................................ 3-12 Table 3-8. Area Source SO2 Emissions (tons per year) ............................................................. 3-13 Table 3-9. Area Source PM2.5 Emissions (tons per year) .......................................................... 3-13 Table 3-10. On-road Mobile Source NOx Emissions (tons per year) ........................................ 3-13 Table 3-11. On-road Mobile Source SO2 Emissions (tons per year) ......................................... 3-14 Table 3-12. On-road Mobile Source PM2.5 Emissions (tons per year) ...................................... 3-14 Table 3-13. Nonroad Mobile Source NOx Emissions (tons per year) ........................................ 3-14 Table 3-14. Nonroad Mobile Source SO2 Emissions (tons per year) ........................................ 3-15 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 vii Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Table 3-15. Nonroad Mobile Source PM2.5 Emissions (tons per year) ...................................... 3-15 Table 3-16. Total Man-Made NOx Emissions (tons per year) ................................................... 3-15 Table 3-17. Total Man-Made SO2 Emissions (tons per year) .................................................... 3-15 Table 3-18. Total Man-Made PM2.5 Emissions (tons per year) ................................................. 3-16 Table 3-19 Maintenance Demonstration for Hickory PM2.5 Nonattainment Area ................... 3-16 Table 3-20 Maintenance Demonstration for Triad PM2.5 Nonattainment Area ........................ 3-16 Table 3-21 Safety Margin for Hickory PM2.5 Nonattainment Area .......................................... 3-17 Table 3-22 Safety Margin for Triad PM2.5 Nonattainment Area ............................................... 3-17 Table 4-1. On-Road Mobile Source PM2.5 Emissions ................................................................ 4-8 Table 4-2. On-Road Mobile Source NOx Emissions .................................................................. 4-9 Table 4-3 Catawba County MVEB ............................................................................................. 4-9 Table 4-4 Davidson County MVEB ........................................................................................... 4-9 Table 4-5 Guilford County MVEB ........................................................................................... 4-10 Table 4-6 New Safety Margins for the Hickory PM2.5 nonattainment area .............................. 4-10 Table 4-7 New Safety Margins for the Triad PM2.5 nonattainment area .................................. 4-11 Figure 1-1. USEPA Designated Annual PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas in North Carolina ........... 1-3 Figure 2-1. PM2.5 Monitor Locations in the PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas................................... 2-1 Figure 2-3. Location of Power Plants in the Vicinity of the PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas .......... 2-8 Figure 3-1. North Carolina’s Inspection & Maintenance (I/M) Phase-In Map .......................... 3-5 Figure 4-1. Speciated Data for the Hickory area (left) and the Triad area (right) ....................... 4-3 Figure 4-2. North Carolina’s 2009 Statewide SO2 Emissions .................................................... 4-4 Figure 4-3. Hickory Area 2009 Primary PM2.5 Emissions ........................................................... 4-6 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 viii Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Acronym Definition ºF Degrees Fahrenheit CAA Clean Air Act CAAA Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 CERR Consolidated Emissions Reporting Rule CFR Code of Federal Regulations CO Carbon Monoxide E-GAS 5.0 Economic Growth Analysis System version 5.0 FR Federal Register FRM Federal Reference Method GUAMPO Greensboro Urban Area Metropolitan Planning Organization HC Hydrocarbons I/M Inspection and Maintenance MVEB Motor Vehicle Emission Budget NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard NCCSA North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Act NCDAQ North Carolina Division of Air Quality NCDENR North Carolina Department of Natural Resources NCDOT North Carolina Department of Transportation NOx Nitrogen Oxides PM Particulate Matter PM2.5 Fine Particulate Matter ppm Parts per million QA Quality Assure SAFETY-LU Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users SIP State Implementation Plan SO2 Sulfur Dioxide SOx Sulfur Oxides SUV Sports Utility Vehicle TIP Transportation Improvement Program TPD Tons per Day TSP Total Suspended Particulates USEPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled VOC Volatile Organic Compounds μg/m3 Micrograms per cubic meter μm Micrometer Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 1-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Fine particulate matter, also known as fine particles and PM2.5, refers to airborne particles less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (μm) in diameter. Fine particles are treated as though they are a single pollutant, but they come from many different sources and are composed of many different compounds. PM2.5 exposure adversely affects human health, especially respiratory and cardiovascular systems. Individuals particularly sensitive to PM2.5 exposure include children, people with heart and lung disease, and older adults. PM2.5 can be liquid, solid, or can have a solid core surrounded by liquid. PM2.5 can include material produced by combustion, photochemical reactions, and can contain salt from sea spray and soil-like particles. Particles are distinguished based on the method of formation. Primary particles are particles directly emitted into the atmosphere and retain the same chemical composition as when they were released. Secondary particles are those formed through chemical reactions involving atmospheric oxygen, water vapor, hydroxyl radical, nitrates, sulfur dioxide (SO2), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and organic gases from natural and anthropogenic sources. PM2.5 can therefore be composed of varying amounts of different species, including: • Sulfates • Nitrates (usually found in the form of ammonium nitrate) • Ammonium • Hydrogen ion • Particle bound water • Elemental carbon • Organic compounds Primary organic species (from cooking and combustion) Secondary organic compounds • Crustal material (includes calcium, aluminum, silicon, magnesium, and iron) • Sea salt (generally only found at coastal monitoring sites) • Transitional metals • Potassium (generally from wood burning or cooking) Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 1-2 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The most significant sources of PM2.5 and its precursors are coal-fired power plants, industrial boilers and other combustion sources. These emissions are often transported over large distances. Other sources of PM2.5 emissions include mobile sources, area sources, fires, windblown dust, and biogenic, i.e., naturally occurring emissions such as sea salt from oceans and organics from trees. A variety of meteorological and geographic factors influence the concentration levels of fine particles, including both the regional and local distribution of urbanized areas, primary and precursor emissions sources, and natural features such as oceans and forests. PM2.5 concentrations can also be high and exceed the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQSs) for fine particulate matter at any time of the year. Therefore, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) mandates in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) the year round monitoring of PM2.5 concentrations throughout the country (40 CFR 58.App. D, 4.7). In 1997, the USEPA promulgated the primary (health) and secondary (welfare) NAAQSs for PM2.5 (40 CFR 50.7), setting the standard at a 15.0 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m3) annual average and at a 65 μg/m3 daily or 24-hour average. A violation of the annual PM2.5 NAAQS occurs when the annual average PM2.5 concentration averaged over a three consecutive year period is equal to or greater than 15.1 μg/m3. A violation of the daily PM2.5 NAAQS occurs when the annual 98th percentile of daily PM2.5 concentration averaged over a three consecutive year period is equal to or greater than 66 μg/m3. The annual or daily PM2.5 design value for a nonattainment area is the highest design value for any monitor in that area. Since the 1977 amendments to the Clean Air Act (CAA), areas of the country that had not attained the ambient standard for a particular pollutant were formally designated as nonattainment for that pollutant. This formal designation concept was retained in the 1990 CAA Amendments (CAAA). With the implementation of the PM2.5 standard, areas could be designated under Section 172 of the CAAA (subpart 1) and have five years from designation to attain the standard. On January 5, 2005, the USEPA designated the Hickory area (Catawba County) and the Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point area (referred to as the Triad area and consisting of Davidson and Guilford Counties) as “subpart 1” nonattainment for the annual PM2.5 standard based on the ambient data from 2001-2003 (Figure 1-1). At that time, the design values for the Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 1-3 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas were 15.6 μg/m3 and 15.9 μg/m3, respectively. The official designation and classification was published in the Federal Register (FR) on January 5, 2005 (70 FR 944) and became effective on April 5, 2005. Prior to the implementation of the new PM2.5 standard, these areas had been in attainment of the coarse particulate matter (PM10) and total suspended particulate matter (TSP) standards. All areas of North Carolina met the 1997 daily PM2.5 standard. All violating monitors were attaining the annual PM2.5 standard with the inclusion of the 2008 ambient data. The 2006-2008 design values for the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas are 14.2 μg/m3 and 14.5 μg/m3, respectively. Both areas continue to attain the daily PM2.5 standard. Section 107(d) (3) (E) of the CAA, as amended, states an area can be redesignated to attainment if the following conditions are met: 1. The USEPA has determined that the NAAQS have been attained. For fine particulate matter, the areas must show that the average of the annual average values from three (3) consecutive calendar years of quality-assured air quality monitoring data must be 15.0 μg/m3 or lower. 2. The applicable implementation plan has been fully approved by the USEPA under section 110(k). Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 1-4 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 3. The USEPA has determined that the improvement in air quality is due to permanent and enforceable reductions in emissions. To demonstrate this, the State should estimate the percent reduction (from the year used to determine the design value for designation and classification) achieved from Federal, State, and local measures. 4. The State has met all applicable requirements for the area under Section 110 and Part D. 5. The USEPA has fully approved a maintenance plan, including a contingency plan, for the areas under section 175A. In the sections to follow, the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Division of Air Quality (NCDAQ) will provide the technical data necessary to show that both the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas have attained and are expected to maintain the annual fine particulate matter standard, and have met the requirements for redesignation set forth above. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The NCDAQ has collected ambient monitoring data for Catawba, Davidson, and Guilford Counties since 1999. At the time of fine particulate matter designations, there were three Federal Reference Method (FRM) monitors for fine particulate matter in the three counties; Hickory, Lexington, and Mendenhall (Figure 2-1). In late 2007, another PM2.5 FRM monitor was installed in Guilford County, located in Colfax which is located just west of Greensboro. These monitors were installed in accordance with the 40 CFR 58. Data from the fourth quarter of 2006 at Mendenhall is incomplete due to construction at the monitoring site and complications in relocating the site. The NCDAQ had to move the site since the school where the monitoring site is located constructed a two-story field house immediately adjacent to the monitoring site (letter to USEPA Region 4, Appendix D). The school had not notified the NCDAQ of its intention to build the field house. During a routine site visit, the NCDAQ discovered that construction had started within four meters of the monitoring site. At that point, the monitor no longer met the ambient monitoring siting criteria and had to be shut down and moved. A new site was promptly found and appropriate permits were applied for. It took the NCDAQ four months (instead of an estimated 3 weeks) to resolve all the necessary permits and complete Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-2 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 the relocation of the monitor. This unfortunate circumstance resulted in most of the fourth quarter to go unmonitored. The USEPA guidance does not address missing monitoring data for an entire quarter. The NCDAQ decided the best option was to develop regressive analysis between Mendenhall and surrounding monitors. Data from surrounding monitors was incorporated into the regressive analysis to obtain a best estimate for the fourth quarter at Mendenhall. Please see Appendix D for more details. The Mendenhall monitor has never violated the PM2.5 standards and has consistently had annual averages that were 1 – 2 μg/m3 below the annual PM2.5 NAAQS. The NCDAQ is confident that had the monitor been operating during the 2006 fourth quarter, the ambient air quality levels would have been consistent with the estimated values the NCDAQ has developed. The USEPA has also proposed to determine that the Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point nonattainment area has attained the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS (74 FR 51249). Tables 2-1 and 2-2 below show the air quality data and corresponding design values, respectively, for the monitors in the both the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas from 1999 to 2006. Table 2-2 indicates that the Hickory and Lexington monitors were in violation of the PM2.5 NAAQS for this period, while the Mendenhall monitor was consistently below the annual PM2.5 standard. Monitor Fine Particulate Matter Annual Average (μg/m3) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Hickory Nonattainment Area Hickory AIRS ID #37-035-0004 Catawba County 17.42 17.63 15.98 15.36 15.04 15.00 15.95 15.17 14.54 Triad Nonattainment Area Lexington AIRS ID #37-057-0002 Davidson County 17.34 18.04 16.45 15.88 15.17 15.18 15.40 15.13 14.64 Mendenhall AIRS ID #37-081-0013 Guilford County 13.72 13.32 13.97 14.01 14.06* 13.05 *Estimated fourth quarter data Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-3 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Monitor Design Value (μg/m3) 99-01 00-02 01-03 02-04 03-05 04-06 05-07 Hickory Nonattainment Area Hickory AIRS ID #37-035-0004 Catawba County Triad Nonattainment Area Lexington AIRS ID #37-057-0002 Davidson County Mendenhall AIRS ID #37-081-0013 Guilford County 13.7 13.8 14.0* 13.7* Note: Bolded values represent violations of the annual fine particulate matter standard. *Estimated fourth quarter 2006 data used in Design Value calculation. The most recent three years of PM2.5 monitoring data (2006-2008) for both the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas demonstrate compliance with the annual fine particulate matter NAAQS. Table 2-3 is a summary of the annual averages for the monitors located in the nonattainment areas for 2006-2008 and their respective design values. The Colfax monitor only has data for 2008 and therefore does not have sufficient data to calculate a design value. However, the 2008 annual average is significantly below the annual PM2.5 standard. Therefore, the NCDAQ is confident the area is in compliance of the NAAQS. The 2008 PM2.5 monitoring data for both the Hickory and the Triad areas have been fully quality assured and were officially submitted to the USEPA on May 9, 2009. As noted in the previous section, the fourth quarter data for 2006 at the Mendenhall monitoring site is incomplete. After an extensive analysis, the NCDAQ is confident that the Mendenhall monitor is not in violation of the PM2.5 NAAQS (see Appendix D). It should be noted that the Mendenhall monitor has never violated the annual PM2.5 NAAQS in the history of its operation. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-4 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Monitor Year PM2.5 Annual Average (μg/m3) Design Value (μg/m3) 2006-2008 Hickory Nonattainment Area Hickory AIRS ID #37-035-0004 Catawba County 2006 15.17 2007 14.54 14.2 2008 12.85 Triad Nonattainment Area Lexington AIRS ID #37-057-0002 Davidson County 2006 15.13 2007 14.64 14.5 2008 13.66 Mendenhall AIRS ID #37-081-0013 Guilford County 2006 14.06* 2007 13.05 12.9* 2008 11.45 Colfax AIRS ID #37-081-0141 Guilford County 2006 N/A 2007 N/A N/A 2008 12.21 *Estimated fourth quarter 2006 data used in Design Value calculation. There are several State and Federal measures that have been enacted in recent years that are resulting in permanent emissions reductions. Most of these emission reductions are due to regulations and thus are enforceable. However, a few measures are non-regulatory but will still result in emission reductions. A list of those measures that contributed to the permanent emission reductions are listed below and are more fully described in Section 3.2. The federal measures that have been implemented include: • Tier 2 vehicle standards: In addition to NOx controls, the Tier 2 rule also reduced the sulfur content of gasoline to 30 parts per million (ppm) starting in January of 2006. Most gasoline sold in North Carolina prior to January 2006 had a sulfur content of about 300 ppm. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. • Heavy-duty gasoline and diesel highway vehicle standards: Second phase of standards and testing procedures, which began in 2007, will reduce particulate matter from heavy-duty highway engines, and will also reduce highway diesel fuel sulfur content to 15 ppm since the sulfur damages emission control devices. The total • • • • • • • • • • Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-7 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Year Annual SO2 Emissions (Tons) Annual NOx Emissions (Tons) 2002 462,993 145,706 2003 462,041 135,879 2004 472,320 124,079 2005 500,936 114,300 2006 462,143 108,584 2007 370,827 64,770 2008* 227,030 61,669 *Data from 2008 is considered preliminary. As mentioned in Section 1.1, PM2.5 is composed of many species from varying sources. Figure 2-2 presents the North Carolina statewide averaged PM2.5 speciation data from the speciation trends network (STN) monitors for the year 2004. The figure presents sulfates and organic carbons as the main contributors to PM2.5, each with 29% of the total PM2.5 mass. The “other” portion of the PM2.5 that accounts for 17% of the mass can be attributed to water, sea salts, and other trace materials captured with the STN monitors. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-8 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Organic carbon is predominately attributed to biogenic emission sources and sulfate is associated with SO2 emissions. When evaluated across North Carolina and also throughout both nonattainment areas and surrounding regions, the SO2 is primarily from the point source sector. For this reason, reductions in SO2 emissions will provide the greatest reductions in PM2.5 ambient concentrations. Figure 2-3 displays the location of the major power plants located near the PM2.5 nonattainment areas. Table 2-5 presents the SO2 emissions from these nine power plants as reported from the USEPA acid rain database. It is clearly demonstrated that the annual emissions from these facilities have significantly decreased since 2005, with over 250,000 tons of SO2 emission reduction in the 2008 compared to 2005. This is over a 50% reduction in utility SO2 emissions that are permanent and enforceable. These reductions have taken place beginning in 2006, which includes the first year of the attaining 3-year design value. Since the final compliance date for the NCCSA SO2 emissions caps is 2013, future design values are expected to continue to decline below the 2006-2008 attaining design values. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-9 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Facility County 2005 2006 2007 2008 Belews Creek Rockingham 96,813 95,290 86,388 17,252 Buck Rowan 9,582 9,560 10,261 7,353 Cliffside Rutherford 28,209 29,128 27,566 29,421 Dan River Stokes 4,248 7,068 7,672 6,687 Allen Gaston 45,424 45,395 50,550 49,578 Marshall Catawba 100,540 85,050 24,754 6,174 Mayo Person 27,076 24,499 22,811 20,072 Riverbend Gaston 13,964 15,148 15,907 15,942 Roxboro Person 101,444 94,627 65,247 24,436 Total 427,301 405,765 311,155 176,914 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The State's plan for maintaining compliance with the ambient air quality standard for annual fine particulate matter in the Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point nonattainment areas consists of three major parts: a foundation control program, a maintenance demonstration, and a contingency plan. The foundation control program consists of the current Federal and State control measures already in effect, as well as the future benefits of the federal cleaner engine programs, and low sulfur gasoline and low sulfur diesel fuel programs. Additionally, although the federal Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) has been remanded back to the USEPA, a replacement rule is expected to be promulgated in 2011. This new rule is expected to be as stringent as CAIR. The NCDAQ has implemented programs that will remain enforceable and are hereby submitted as the plan to ensure that maintenance of the annual fine particulate matter standard will continue. Sources are prohibited from reducing emission controls (anti-backsliding) following the redesignation of the area unless such a change is first approved by the USEPA as a revision to the North Carolina SIP that is consistent with Section 110(l) of the Clean Air Act. For the maintenance demonstration, the base year of 2008 was chosen since it is a year that falls within the attaining design value period of 2006-2008 and some emissions inventory data was already developed for this year. The interim years chosen were: 2011, 2014, and 2017 since the USEPA recommends three-year increments for interim years. The final year of the maintenance demonstration is 2021, since the CAA requires maintenance for at least ten years after redesignation. The maintenance demonstration consists of a comparison between the 2008 baseline emissions inventory and the projected emissions inventories (for 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021), which consider economic and population growth as well as expected controls. The comparison shows that the total emissions in each of the interim years and the final year will be lower than in the base year, which demonstrates maintenance of the annual PM2.5 standard. The reductions in emissions are due to the foundation control programs outlined below. The North Carolina contingency plan involves tracking and triggering mechanisms to determine when contingency measures are needed and a process of implementing appropriate control measures. The primary trigger of the contingency plan will be a violation of the ambient air quality standard for annual PM2.5. The secondary trigger will be a monitored air quality pattern that suggests an actual annual PM2.5 NAAQS violation may be imminent, such as repeated exceedances of the daily fine particulate matter standard. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-2 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The main element of the maintenance plan is the foundation control program. The foundation control program contains the controls necessary to maintain the ambient air quality standards. The purpose of the foundation control program is to prevent the ambient air quality standards from being violated and thereby eliminate the need for more costly controls being imposed on industry and the general public. Each component of the State's foundation control program is essential in demonstrating maintenance of the air quality standards. The foundation control program consists of Federal and State measures. The Federal measures include the cleaner fuel programs and the federal highway motor vehicle and off-road equipment control program and controls on power plants. State measures include the I/M program, the NOx SIP Call rule, the NCCSA, and open burning and idle reduction regulations. The state measures also include additional programs that support maintenance of the PM2.5 standard. Most of these emission reductions are due to regulations and thus are enforceable. However, a few measures are non-regulatory but will still result in emission reductions. All of these programs have already been implemented or are in the process of being implemented. Tier 2 Vehicle Standards Federal Tier 2 vehicle standards require all passenger vehicles in a manufacturer’s fleet, including light-duty trucks and Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs), to meet an average standard of 0.07 grams of NOx per mile. Implementation began in 2004, with full compliance required by 2007. The Tier 2 standards also cover passenger vehicles over 8,500 pounds gross vehicle weight rating (the larger pickup trucks and SUVs), which are not covered by the Tier 1 regulations. For these vehicles, the standards were phased in beginning in 2008, with full compliance required by 2009. The new standards require vehicles to be 77% to 95% cleaner. The Tier 2 rule also reduced the sulfur content of gasoline to 30 ppm starting in January of 2006. Most gasoline sold in North Carolina prior to January 2006 had a sulfur content of about 300 ppm. Sulfur occurs naturally in gasoline and interferes with the operation of catalytic converters on vehicles, which results in higher NOx emissions. Lower-sulfur gasoline is necessary to achieve the Tier 2 vehicle emission standards. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-3 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Heavy-Duty Gasoline and Diesel Highway Vehicles Standards The USEPA standards designed to reduce NOx and VOC emissions from heavy-duty gasoline and diesel highway vehicles began to take effect in 2004. The second phase of the standards and testing procedures began in 2007 and will reduce particulate matter from heavy-duty highway engines, and reduces highway diesel fuel sulfur content to 15 ppm since the sulfur damages emission control devices. The total program is expected to achieve a 90% reduction in PM emissions and a 95% reduction in NOx emissions for the new engines using low sulfur diesel, compared to engines using higher-content sulfur diesel. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. Large Nonroad Diesel Engines Rule In May 2004, the USEPA promulgated new rules for large nonroad diesel engines, such as those used in construction, agricultural, and industrial equipment, to be phased in between 2008 and 2014. The nonroad diesel rules also reduce the allowable sulfur in nonroad diesel fuel by over 99%. Prior to the fuel standard change, nonroad diesel fuel averaged about 3,400 ppm sulfur. The rule limits nonroad diesel sulfur content to 500 ppm by 2006 and 15 ppm by 2010. The combined engine and fuel rules is expected to reduce NOx and PM emissions from large nonroad diesel engines by over 90%, compared to current nonroad engines using higher-content sulfur diesel. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. Nonroad Spark-Ignition Engines and Recreational Engines Standard The nonroad spark-ignition and recreational engine standards, effective in July 2003, regulates NOx, hydrocarbons (HC) and CO for groups of previously unregulated nonroad engines. These engine standards apply to all new engines sold in the United States and imported after these standards began and applies to large spark-ignition engines (forklifts and airport ground service equipment), recreational vehicles (off-highway motorcycles and all-terrain-vehicles), and recreational marine diesel engines. The regulation varies based upon the type of engine or vehicle. The large spark-ignition engines contribute to ozone formation and ambient CO and PM levels in urban areas. Tier 1 of this standard was implemented in 2004 and Tier 2 started in 2007. Like the large spark-ignition, recreational vehicles contribute to ozone formation and ambient CO and PM levels. For the off-highway motorcycles and all-terrain-vehicles, the exhaust emissions standard was phased-in. Fifty percent of model year 2006 engines had to meet the standard and for model years 2007 and later, all engines must meet the standard. Recreational marine diesel engines over 37 kilowatts are used in yachts, cruisers, and other types of pleasure craft. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-4 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Recreational marine engines contribute to ozone formation and PM levels, especially in marinas. Depending on the size of the engine, the standard began phasing-in in 2006. When all of the nonroad spark-ignition and recreational engine standards are fully implemented, an overall 72% reduction in HC, 80% reduction in NOx, and 56% reduction in CO emissions are expected by 2020. These controls will help reduce ambient concentrations of ozone, CO, and PM2.5. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. NOx SIP Call in Surrounding States In October 1998, the USEPA made a finding of significant contribution of NOx emissions from certain states and published a rule that set ozone season (May to September) NOx budgets for the purpose of reducing regional transport of ozone (63 FR 57356). This rule, referred to as the NOx SIP Call, required ozone season controls to be put on utility and industrial boilers, as well as internal combustion engines, in 22 states in the Eastern United States. A NOx emissions budget was set for each state and the states were required to develop rules that would assure that each state met its budget. A NOx trading program was established, allowing sources to buy credits to meet their NOx budget as opposed to actually installing controls. The emission budgets were to be met by the beginning of 2004. Even with the trading program, the amount of ozone season NOx emissions has decreased significantly in and around North Carolina. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. Clean Air Interstate Rule On May 12, 2005, the USEPA promulgated the “Rule To Reduce Interstate Transport of Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone (Clean Air Interstate Rule); Revisions to Acid Rain Program; Revisions to the NOx SIP Call”, referred to as CAIR. This rule established the requirement for States to adopt rules limiting the emissions of NOx and SO2 and a model rule for the states to use in developing their rules. The purpose of the CAIR is to reduce interstate transport of precursors of fine particulate and ozone. This rule provides annual state caps for NOx and SO2 for large fossil-fuel-fired electric generating units in two phases, with the Phase I caps for NOx and SO2 starting in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Phase II caps become effective in 2015. The USEPA is allowing the caps to be met through a cap and trade program if a state so chooses to participate in the program. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Due to court challenges of CAIR in 2008, the USEPA will be making changes to the program by 2011. However, the existing CAIR rules will remain in place until the USEPA promulgates changes to the program. Additionally, the revisions to the CAIR program are expected to be as stringent as the existing program. North Carolina has adopted a number of regulations, legislation, and voluntary programs to address pollution issues across the State. These are summarized below. Clean Air Bill The 1999 Clean Air Bill expanded the vehicle emissions I/M program in North Carolina from 9 counties to 48 counties, between July 1, 2002 through January 1, 2006 (Figure 3-1). Vehicles are tested using the onboard diagnostic system (OBDII), an improved method of testing, which ensures proper emission system operation for vehicles and light trucks during their lifetime by monitoring emission-related components and systems for malfunction and/or deterioration. An important aspect of OBDII is its ability to notify the driver of malfunction and/or deterioration by illuminating the "check engine light". If the vehicle is taken to a repair shop in a timely fashion, it can be properly repaired before any significant and prolonged emission increase occurs. The previously used tailpipe test (i.e., idle test) did not measure NOx emissions; it only tested for VOC and CO emissions. By utilizing the OBDII test method, the NOx emissions as well as other pollutants from motor vehicles are reduced. The effective dates for the counties in the PM2.5 nonattainment area are listed below. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-8 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 the Triad area are subject to this rule Alamance Caswell Davidson Davie Forsyth Guilford Randolph Rockingham and Stokes. The open burning regulation reduces PM, NOx, SO2, VOC, and CO emissions and are state enforceable. The estimated emission reductions through the attainment and maintenance period are presented in Table 3-3. For a full explanation of how these emission reductions were estimated, please refer to Appendix C.2, the Area Source Emissions Inventory Documentation. Hickory Area Catawba 56 66 76 85 100 Triad Area Davidson 94 109 126 141 167 Guilford 79 91 105 119 140 Triad Total 173 200 231 260 307 Hickory Area Catawba 10 11 12 14 17 Triad Area Davidson 16 18 21 23 28 Guilford 13 15 17 20 23 Triad Total 29 33 38 43 51 Hickory Area Catawba 326 380 438 493 581 Triad Area Davidson 541 632 729 819 965 Guilford 454 530 612 688 809 Triad Total 995 1162 1341 1507 1774 Idle Reduction Regulation The EMC adopted the Heavy-Duty Vehicle Idling Restrictions rule to reduce unnecessary idling of heavy-duty trucks on July 9, 2009. This rule has received several letters of objection and will undergo a legislative review in the Spring of 2010 before becoming effective. Once in effect, Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-9 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 this rule will be state enforceable and generally prevent any person who operates a heavy-duty vehicle to cause, let, permit, suffer or allow idling for a period of time in excess of 5 consecutive minutes in any 60 minute period. The expected emissions from this regulation were not included in the mobile source emissions estimated for this maintenance plan because of the uncertainty of the regulations. Air Awareness Program The North Carolina Air Awareness Program is a public outreach and education program of the NCDAQ. The goal of the program is to reduce air pollution though voluntary actions by individuals and organizations. The program seeks to educate individuals about (1) the sources of air pollution; (2) the health effects of air pollution and how these effects can be mitigated by modification of outdoor activities on air quality action days; and (3) simple "action tips", such as carpooling, vehicle maintenance, and energy conservation, that reduce individual contributions to air pollution. One of the major program components is the year round daily air quality forecast. The NCDAQ produces a daily fine particulate matter forecasts and corresponding air quality index for the Hickory forecast area, while the Forsyth County Environmental Affairs Department provides daily fine particulate matter forecasts and the corresponding air quality index for the Triad region. Transportation Conformity The NCDAQ works closely with the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) and local transportation agencies to assure that Transportation Improvement Programs (TIPs) in the nonattainment areas are consistent with and conform to the State's air quality program, including the SIP, and meet the Federal requirements on transportation conformity. This conformity review is performed for all federally funded and all other major projects contained in TIPs, regardless of source of funding. Technical analysis of transportation plans, programs, and projects for conformity are done cooperatively by the Statewide Planning Branch of the NCDOT and the NCDAQ. In the event that the NCDAQ disagrees with the NCDOT on a conformity determination or other conformity related issue, the NCDAQ and the NCDOT will present the issue to the Governor for resolution. The public and interested parties are given an early and reasonable opportunity to comment on transportation plans, programs, projects and proposed conformity determinations in accordance with procedures adopted by metropolitan planning organizations pursuant to the requirements of • • Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-18 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 will be a rolling 12 quarter average that exceeds the annual PM2.5 NAAQS. The tertiary trigger will be a monitored annual average that exceeds the annual PM2.5 NAAQS. Upon either the primary or secondary triggers being activated, the NCDAQ will commence analyses to determine what additional measures, if any, will be necessary to attain or maintain the annual PM2.5 standard. If activation of either the primary or secondary triggers occurs, this plan provides a regulatory adoption process for revising emission control strategies. Activation of the tertiary trigger will result in an analysis to understand the cause of the exceedance and to identify voluntary measures if needed. In addition, there will be a tracking mechanism that requires a comparison of the actual emissions inventory submitted under the Federal Consolidated Emissions Reporting Rule (CERR) and Air Emissions Reporting Rule (AERR) to the projected inventory, and to the attainment year inventory contained in this maintenance plan. The CERR and AERR reporting years coincide with the baseline, interim and final years of the emission inventory in this maintenance demonstration. The primary trigger of the contingency plan will be a violation of the annual PM2.5 standard, or when the three-year average of the average annual ambient concentration is greater than 15.0 μg/m3 at any monitor in the PM2.5 nonattainment areas. The trigger date will be 60 days from the date that the State observes an annual average concentration that, when averaged with the two previous annual average PM2.5 concentrations, would result in a three-year average greater than 15.0 μg/m3. The secondary trigger will apply where no actual violation of the annual PM2.5 standard has occurred, but where the State finds that the rolling 12-quarter average monitored PM2.5 levels exceed the PM2.5 NAAQS. A pattern will be deemed to exist when the average PM2.5 concentrations of any 12 consecutive quarters is greater than 15.0 μg/m3 at any monitor within the PM2.5 nonattainment areas. The trigger date will be 60 days from the date that the State observes a rolling 12-quarter average greater than 15.0 μg/m3 at any monitor. Similarly, the tertiary trigger will not be an actual violation of the annual PM2.5 standard. This trigger will be a first alert as to a potential air quality problem on the horizon. The trigger will be activated when a monitor in either of the PM2.5 nonattainment areas has an annual average greater than 15.0 μg/m3, starting the first year after the maintenance plan has been approved. The trigger date will be 60 days from the date that the State observes an annual average greater than 15.0 μg/m3 at any monitor. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-19 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 There are a number of programs that are still being implemented in North Carolina that will continue to reduce fine particulate matter and its precursors. The NCCSA has a final compliance year of 2013 by which the public utilities in North Carolina must meet their SO2 emissions caps. It is estimated that an additional 133,320 tons of SO2 will be reduced from the 2008 emission levels for the sources subject to the NCCSA. Additionally, the NCDAQ is still awarding grants for retrofits, replacement or repowering of diesel engines for on-road and nonroad mobile sources. Since it is possible that the speciation composition of fine particulate matter may change in the future years, it is important that the NCDAQ identify the pollutant or pollutants for which further reductions are needed in order to maintain the annual PM2.5 NAAQS. Once the primary or secondary trigger is activated, the Planning Section of the NCDAQ shall commence analyses including trajectory analyses of high PM2.5 days, and emissions inventory assessment to determine those emission control measures that will be required for attaining or maintaining the annual PM2.5 standard. Additionally, the PM2.5 speciation data from the STN monitors will be reviewed to determine which species are the more predominant components for the period where a violation or exceedance of the NAAQS was observed. If it is determined that the cause of the violation or exceedance of the PM2.5 NAAQS is due to sources outside of North Carolina, then the NCDAQ will commence discussion with regulatory authorities responsible for upwind sources to determine additional actions to be implemented. The State of North Carolina has already filed a Section 126 petition in order to ensure that neighboring states reduce their utility emissions in a timely manner. As a result of the recent court decision in the State of North Carolina vs. Tennessee Valley Authority, additional emissions reductions are anticipated for upwind TVA sources. If it is determined that the violation or exceedance occurred due to sources within North Carolina, then by November 1 of the year following the year in which the primary or secondary trigger has been activated, North Carolina will complete sufficient analyses to begin adoption of necessary rules for ensuring attainment and maintenance of the annual PM2.5 NAAQS. If the rules are still needed, then rules would become State effective by the following July 1, unless legislative review is required. Each adopted rule will include a schedule that will require compliance with the rule no later than 2 years after adoption of the rule. The measures that will be considered for adoption upon a trigger of the contingency plan include: Reasonably Available Control Technology on stationary sources in the PM2.5 nonattainment area counties, diesel inspection and maintenance program, implementation of Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-20 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 diesel retrofit programs, including incentives for performing retrofits, and additional controls in upwind areas. Once the tertiary trigger is activated, the Planning Section of the NCDAQ shall commence analyses including meteorological evaluation, trajectory analyses of high PM2.5 days, and emissions inventory assessment to understand why an annual exceedance of the standard has occurred. Once the analyses are completed, the NCDAQ will work with the local air awareness program and develop an outreach plan to identify any additional voluntary measures that can be implemented. NCDAQ will work with the local air awareness coordinator to implement the plan for the following summer. In addition to the measures listed above, emissions inventory comparisons will be carried out. The large stationary sources are required to submit an emissions inventory annually to the NCDAQ. The NCDAQ will commit to review these emissions inventories to determine if an unexpected growth in NOx, SO2 or primary particulate matter emissions in the PM2.5 nonattainment areas may endanger the maintenance of the annual PM2.5 standard. Additionally, as new VMT data is provided by the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), the NCDAQ commits to review this data and determine if any unexpected growth in VMT may endanger the maintenance of the annual PM2.5 standard. Additionally, under the CERR and AERR the NCDAQ is required to develop a comprehensive, annual, statewide emissions inventory every three years and is due twelve to eighteen months after the completion of the inventory year. The CERR and AERR inventory years coincide with the baseline, interim and final years of the maintenance plan. Therefore, the NCDAQ commits to compare these inventories as they are developed with the maintenance plan to determine if additional steps are necessary for continued maintenance of the annual PM2.5 standard in this area. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The purpose of transportation conformity is to ensure that Federal transportation actions occurring in nonattainment and maintenance areas do not hinder the area from attaining and maintaining the annual fine particulate matter standard. This means that the level of emissions estimated by the NCDOT or the metropolitan planning organizations for the TIP and Long Range Transportation Plan must not exceed the motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEBs) as defined in this maintenance plan. 40 CFR 93.119(f)(7) through (10) identifies the pollutants for PM2.5 that regional emissions analysis needs to be performed for transportation conformity purposes. These parts of the rule are listed below: Only primary, or direct PM2.5, tailpipe emissions must be considered for transportation conformity regional emissions analysis. The other precursor pollutants and reentrained road dust only need to be considered if the State air agency and/or the USEPA have deemed the pollutant as a significant contributor to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem. The following sections discuss Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-2 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 the significance of the precursor pollutants and reentrained road dust to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem. The PM2.5 precursor NOx is presumed to be a significant contributor to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem by the USEPA. The NCDAQ has determined that NOx is a relatively minor contributor to the PM2.5 concentrations in North Carolina. However, the NCDAQ is not asserting that NOx is an insignificant precursor for the 1997 PM2.5 standard. Therefore, the NCDAQ will establish county level MVEBs for NOx for all three PM2.5 nonattainment counties. For the purpose of this attainment demonstration, VOC and ammonia are presumed to be insignificant contributors to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem by the USEPA. The NCDAQ agrees with the USEPA that both VOC and ammonia are insignificant contributors to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem in North Carolina. Since these precursors have been deemed insignificant, no MVEBs are being established for VOC or ammonia. An affirmative insignificance finding from the USEPA only relieves the transportation partners from a regional emissions analysis for PM2.5 emissions for these areas and does not relieve them of the other transportation conformity requirements. The transportation partners will need to note the VOC and Ammonia insignificance finding (if found adequate and approved by the USEPA) in future conformity determinations. The majority of the roads in North Carolina are paved so there is minimum road dust due to the paved roads. The factor to calculate reentrained road dust on paved roads is very small. What dust is generated, has been shown in the literature, , to be inconsequential. This fact is affirmed by the small crustal component in the PM2.5 speciated data which measures only 3% at Hickory monitoring site (Catawba County) in 2002 and only 2% at Lexington monitoring site (Davidson County) in 2004 (see Figure 4-1 below). Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-3 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Since the reentrained road dust is not a significant contributor to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem, the NCDAQ will not be establishing MVEBs for this source category. An affirmative insignificance finding from the USEPA only relieves the transportation partners from a regional emissions analysis for reentrained road dust emissions for these areas and does not relieve them of the other transportation conformity requirements. The transportation partners will need to note the reentrained road dust insignificance finding (if found adequate and approved by the USEPA) in future conformity determinations. The PM2.5 precursor SO2 could not be deemed insignificant to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem. However, the NCDAQ has determined that SO2 emitted by the mobile source sector is insignificant. The USEPA in its Federal Register notice for PM2.5 does not address the mobile sector in its listing of significant emissions. North Carolina agrees with the following statements addressing SO2 from on-road mobile emissions as published in the May 6, 2005, Federal Register, (70 FR 24283): Nitrate 6% Sulfate 30% Ammonium 10% Organic carbon 32% Elemental carbon 4% Crustal component 3% Other 15% Nitrate 7% Sulfate 29% Ammonium 10% Organic carbon 28% Elemental carbon 4% Crustal component 2% Other 20% Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-4 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Although sulfate is a significant component to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem in North Carolina, the majority of the SO2 emissions in 2009 come from the stationary point source sector (see Figure 4-2). The mobile source sector only contributes one half of one percent (0.5 %) of the 2009 statewide SO2 emissions. This is consistent with what the USEPA stated above. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Since the mobile source SO2 contribution is insignificant, the NCDAQ is not establishing MVEBs for this precursor. An affirmative insignificance finding from the USEPA only relieves the transportation partners from a regional emissions analysis for SO2 emissions for these areas and does not relieve them of the other transportation conformity requirements. The transportation partners will need to note the SO2 insignificance finding (if found adequate and approved by the USEPA) in future conformity determinations. 40 CFR 93.109(k) in the Transportation Conformity Rule Amendments for the new 8-hour ozone and fine particulate matter NAAQSs addresses areas with insignificant motor vehicle emissions as follows, The rule suggests that such a finding would be based on a number of factors, including the percentage of motor vehicle emissions in the context of the total SIP inventory, the current state of air quality as determined by monitoring data for that NAAQS, the absence of SIP motor vehicle control measures, and historical trends and future projections of the growth of motor vehicle emissions. Although there is an inspection and maintenance program in the nonattainment areas, this control measure does not control primary PM2.5, but rather is in place to reduce the ozone precursors. The NCDAQ believes strongly that the primary PM2.5 emissions from mobile sources do not contribute significantly to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem. However, the USEPA has indicated they will not approve a SIP that does not set MVEBs for primary PM2.5 for the Triad nonattainment area. Therefore, the NCDAQ will establish county level MVEBs for primary PM2.5 for the Triad area. The sections that follow discuss the insignificance of PM2.5 emissions. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-6 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The attainment modeling for the Hickory and the Triad PM2.5 nonattainment areas was submitted to the USEPA on August 21, 2009. In conjunction with that modeling the NCDAQ examined the sources of PM2.5 emissions and their contribution to PM2.5 formation in the nonattainment counties. This was accomplished using the 2009 emissions inventories developed for the attainment demonstration modeling. Figure 4-3 provides the percent contributions from point, area, nonroad mobile and on-road mobile source sectors for the Hickory nonattainment area. The 2009 on-road mobile PM2.5 emissions contributed only 1.6% of the total PM2.5 emissions for the Hickory area. Therefore, it is demonstrated that the PM2.5 emissions compared to the total PM2.5 emissions are insignificant. It should be noted that the mobile source PM2.5 emissions slightly decrease from 2002 to 2009 despite an increase in VMT. The NCDAQ performed sensitivity modeling in order to address the challenge of Section 93.109(k) in the Transportation Conformity Rule Amendments, The sensitivity modeling showed that with a doubling of the mobile source PM2.5 emissions there was no change in the air quality modeling results. This sensitivity modeling is discussed in more detail in Appendix C.3. Based on the information discussed above, the NCDAQ believes that the on-road mobile PM2.5 emissions are insignificant contributors to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem. Emission estimates indicate that the on-road mobile PM2.5 emissions are a small percentage of the total PM2.5 emissions in the Hickory nonattainment area. On-road mobile PM2.5 emissions are projected to 1.59% 68.70% 1.49% 28.22% Mobile Point Area Nonroad Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-7 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 decrease into the future notwithstanding VMT increases. Air quality modeling sensitivities show that doubling the mobile source PM2.5 emissions has very little effect on the future design values. The NCDAQ considers it unreasonable to expect that the Hickory PM2.5 nonattainment area will experience enough motor vehicle PM2.5 emissions growth for a future PM2.5 violation to occur due to mobile sources. Due to above analysis and agreement from the USEPA, budgets for direct PM2.5 will not be set for the Hickory nonattainment area. An affirmative insignificance finding from the USEPA only relieves the transportation partners from a regional emissions analysis for PM2.5 emissions for this area and does not relieve them of the other transportation conformity requirements. The transportation partners will need to note the PM2.5 insignificance finding (if found adequate and approved by the USEPA) in future conformity determinations. As stated in Section 3.3.4, a safety margin is the difference between the attainment level of emissions from all source categories (i.e., point, area, on-road mobile and nonroad mobile) and the projected level of emissions from all source categories. The safety margins for both the Hickory and Triad areas are listed in Table 3-21 and 3-22. The State may choose to allocate some of the safety margin to the MVEB, for transportation conformity purposes, so long as the total level of emissions from all source categories remains below the attainment level of emissions. The NCDAQ has decided to allocate a portion of the safety margin to the MVEB to allow for unanticipated growth in VMT, changes to vehicle mix assumptions, etc. that will influence the emission estimations. Since NOx is a precursor to ozone, the NCDAQ has decided to limit the amount of the safety margin allocated to the MVEBs. For 2011 and 2021, the NCDAQ has added an additional 10% and 20%, respectively, to the NOx MVEBs. This is consistent with how the NCDAQ has handled NOX MVEBs in ozone maintenance plans. Since the NCDAQ does not believe that mobile source PM2.5 emissions are a significant contributor to PM2.5 nonattainment, the 2011 and 2021 MVEBs for the Triad nonattainment area will be set at the 2008 mobile source PM2.5 emission levels. As part of the consultation process on setting MVEBs, the NCDAQ sent out a request for comment on setting the geographic extent of the MVEBs to all of the transportation partners. A Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 5-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 For an area to be redesignated and have an approved maintenance plan, the SIP must include evidence of compliance with the rules relied on to show maintenance of the standard. This section provides the evidence of compliance with such rules for the Hickory and Triad PM2.5 nonattainment area. The following rules regulating emissions of SO2 and/or NOx in PM2.5 nonattainment area counties have been approved, or have been submitted with a request to be approved, as part of the SIP: 15A NCAC 2D .0530, Prevention of Significant Deterioration 15A NCAC 2D .1000, Motor Vehicle Emission Control Standards 15A NCAC 2D .1200, Control and Emissions from Incinerators 15A NCAC 2D .1409(b), Stationary Internal Combustion Engines 15A NCAC 2D .1416 - .1423, NOx SIP rules 15A NCAC 2D .1600, General Conformity 15A NCAC 2D .1900, Open Burning 15A NCAC 2D .2000, Transportation Conformity 15A NCAC 2D .2400 Clean Air Interstate Rules Section 15A NCAC 2D .1000 also regulates emissions from motor vehicles in the counties near the Hickory and Triad nonattainment area and requires the use of the on board diagnostic system, which will indicate NOx emissions as well as other pollutants. Section 15A NCAC 2D .1200 regulates the controls and emissions from incinerators. Part of this rule has been submitted as part of the SIP, while .1205, .1206 and .1210 are part of the CAA Section 111(d) plans. Two rules are conformity related, 15A NCAC 2D .1600 and .2000. General conformity related projects are covered under Section .1600, while transportation conformity related projects are covered under Section .2000. Although neither of these rules require reduction in emissions, they do ensure that federal actions do not hinder attainment or maintenance of the NAAQS. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 5-2 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 North Carolina has adopted an open burning rule, 15A NCAC 2D .1900, which prohibits open burning of vegetative material during Air Quality Action Days of Code Orange or higher in forecasted areas of the State. Particle pollution forecasts are issued for the Hickory and Triad areas year-round; therefore this area is covered by this rule. Section 15A NCAC 2D .2400 regulates nitrogen oxide emissions from electric generating units with a nameplate capacity of 25 megawatts or more producing electricity for sale. Section 15A NCAC 2D .2400 also covers industrial boilers that are covered under the NOx SIP Call rules. This Section replaces the NOx SIP Call rules beginning January 1, 2009. Another important set of rules that may result in control of some particulates that are air toxics in North Carolina in these counties is Section 15A NCAC 2D .1100, Control of Toxic Air Pollutants. These rules, however, have not been submitted to the USEPA to be approved as part of the SIP. There are two other rules that control emissions of some particulates in these areas. They are 15A NCAC 2D .0524, New Source Performance Standards. Also, rule 2D.1111, Maximum Achievable Control Technology applies to control of emissions of HAP, some of which are particulates. They are not part of the SIP, but the USEPA has delegated the State enforcement authority for standards that have been adopted by the State. (The standards adopted by the State are state-enforceable regardless of the USEPA delegation.) Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 6-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Section 107(d)(3)(E)(v) of the CAA requires that the provisions of Section 110 and Part D of the Act be met within the area to be redesignated. This means that North Carolina must meet all requirements, if any, that had come due as of the date of the redesignation request. The USEPA in its latest guidance on meeting redesignation requirements as contained in a memorandum from John Calcagni, Director, Air Quality Management Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards to the USEPA Regional Offices dated September 4, 1992, (See Appendix A), states that "For the purposes of redesignation, a State must meet all requirements of Section 110 and Part D that were applicable prior to submittal of the complete redesignation request. When evaluating a redesignation request, Regions should not consider whether the State has met requirements that come due under the Act after submittal of a complete redesignation request." Monitoring is one of the requirements of Section 110. The NCDAQ commits to continue operating the current fine particulate matter monitors in the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas, providing sufficient funding is available for continued operation. Any monitor shutdowns or relocations will only be made with the approval of the USEPA. No plans are underway to discontinue operation, relocation or otherwise affect the integrity of the ambient monitoring network in place. The current monitors are operated consistent with 40 CFR Part 58 and any changes will only be made if they are consistent with 40 CFR Part 58. NCDAQ believes that North Carolina has met all of the requirements of Section 110 and Part D. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 7-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The most recent three years of fine particulate matter monitoring data for the both the Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point (Triad) nonattainment areas demonstrate compliance with the NAAQS for annual fine particulate matter. Since the 1990’s, there have been major programs enacted in North Carolina that have led to significant actual, enforceable emissions reductions, which have led to improvements in the air quality in both the Hickory and Triad areas. Additionally, the maintenance plan demonstrates that the projected emissions inventories for 2021, the final year of the maintenance plan and ten years beyond the expected redesignation year, as well as the interim years, are all less than the base year emissions inventory. Therefore, maintenance of the annual fine particulate matter NAAQS has also been demonstrated. This redesignation demonstration and maintenance plan has been prepared to meet the requirements of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. Point Source Emission Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Errata to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 10 Appendix C.1 December 22, 2010 Point Source Emission Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Errata to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 11 Appendix C.1 December 22, 2010 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 12 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 13 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 14 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 13310 6976 6189 10549 6975 6187 10548 6975 6186 10548 6973 6184 10548 6971 6183 Point Source Emission Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Errata to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 15 Appendix C.1 December 22, 2010 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 16 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 17 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 18 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 19 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 20 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 21 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 22 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 23 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 24 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 25 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 26 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 3 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 4 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 5 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 6 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 7 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 8 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 9 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 10 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 11 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 12 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 13 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 14 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 17 Appendix E December 22, 2010 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 18 Appendix E December 22, 2010 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 19 Appendix E December 22, 2010 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 20 Appendix E December 22, 2010 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 21 Appendix E December 22, 2010 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 22 Appendix E December 22, 2010 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 23 Appendix E December 22, 2010 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation i Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE ............................................................................................. 1 2.0 OVERALL METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................ 1 2.1 Emission Estimation Approach ........................................................................................... 1 3.0 QUALITY ASSURANCE MEASURES .................................................................................. 2 4.0 DISCUSSION OF ON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES .............................................................. 3 4.1 Introduction and Scope ........................................................................................................ 3 4.2 MOVES Input Assumptions ................................................................................................ 4 4.2.1 Speed Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 4 4.2.2 Vehicle Age Distribution ............................................................................................. 10 4.2.3 Vehicle Mix Assumptions ............................................................................................ 11 4.2.4 Disaggregating State Specific Information .................................................................. 12 4.2.5 Vehicles/Equipment: On-Road Vehicle Equipment ................................................... 16 4.2.6 Road Type ................................................................................................................... 17 4.2.7 Pollutants and Processes ............................................................................................. 18 4.2.8 Temperature, Relative Humidity and Barometric Pressure Assumptions ................... 18 4.2.9 Source Type Population .............................................................................................. 18 4.2.10 Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Program Assumptions .................................... 21 4.2.11 Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) Assumptions ................................................................. 21 4.2.12 Diesel Sulfur Content Assumptions ........................................................................... 22 4.2.13 Fuel (Formulation and Supply) ................................................................................. 22 4.3 VMT Assumptions .............................................................................................................. 22 4.4 Estimated Emissions From Mobile Sources ...................................................................... 25 4.5 Motor Vehicle Emissions Budget for Conformity ............................................................. 26 4.5.1 Transportation Conformity .......................................................................................... 26 4.5.2 Pollutants to be Considered ......................................................................................... 26 4.5.3 Safety Margin ............................................................................................................... 33 4.5.4 Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets ................................................................................ 35 5.0 DATA USED ......................................................................................................................... 39 5.1 North Carolina’s Vehicle Mix ........................................................................................... 39 5.1.1 2008 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 39 5.1.2 2011 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 40 5.1.3 2014 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 41 5.1.4 2017 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 42 5.1.5 2021 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 43 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation ii Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 5.2 Meteorology ........................................................................................................................ 44 5.2.1 Catawba County Temperature and Relative Humidity ................................................ 44 5.2.2 Davidson and Guilford County Temperature and Relative Humidity ......................... 50 Table 4.2.1-1 Modeled Area Speeds for Davidson County (miles/hour) ...................................... 5 Table 4.2.1-2 Rural Area Speeds for Davidson County (miles/hour) ............................................ 5 Table 4.2.1-3 Modeled Area Speeds for Guilford County (miles/hour) ........................................ 6 Table 4.2.1-4 Modeled Area Speeds for Catawba County (miles/hour) ........................................ 6 Table 4.2.1-5 Rural Area Speeds for Catawba County (miles/hour) ............................................. 7 Table 4.2.4-1 Mapping of HPMS data to MOBILE6.2 Categories .............................................. 12 Table 4.2.4-2 Calculation of New 2008 Statewide Rural Interstate Vehicle Mix ....................... 14 Table 4.2.4-3 Calculation of 2008 Statewide Rural Interstate Vehicle Mix ................................ 16 Table 4.3-1 Modeled Vehicle Miles Traveled for Davidson County ........................................... 23 Table 4.3-2 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Davidson County Rural Donut Area ............................. 23 Table 4.3-3 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Guilford County ............................................................ 24 Table 4.3-4 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Catawba County Modeled Portion ................................ 24 Table 4.3-5 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Catawba County Rural Donut Area .............................. 25 Table 4.4-1 Emissions by County and year .................................................................................. 25 Table 4.5.3-1 Safety Margin for Hickory PM2.5 Nonattainment Area ......................................... 34 Table 4.5.3-2 Safety Margin for Triad PM2.5 Nonattainment Area ............................................. 34 Table 4.5.4-1 On-Road Mobile Source PM2.5 Emissions ............................................................ 35 Table 4.5.4-2 On-Road Mobile Source NOx Emissions............................................................... 36 Table 4.5.4-3 Catawba County MVEB ........................................................................................ 36 Table 4.5.4-4 Davidson County MVEB ...................................................................................... 36 Table 4.5.4-5 Guilford County MVEB ........................................................................................ 37 Table 4.5.4-6 County Level PM2.5 MVEB Safety Margin for 2011 and 2021 ............................ 37 Table 4.5.4-7 County Level NOx MVEB Safety Margin for 2011 and 2021 .............................. 37 Table 4.5.4-8 New Safety Margins for the Hickory PM2.5 nonattainment area ........................... 38 Table 4.5.4-9 New Safety Margins for the Triad PM2.5 nonattainment area ............................... 38 Figure 4.5.2-2. North Carolina’s 2009 Statewide SO2 Emissions .............................................. 30 Figure 4.5.2-3. Hickory Area 2009 Primary PM2.5 Emissions ..................................................... 31 Figure 4.5.2-4. Catawba County Hourly PM2.5 Emissions ........................................................... 33 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 1 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 This fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on-road mobile source documentation covers the Hickory PM2.5 nonattainment area (Catawba County) and the Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point PM2.5 nonattainment area (referred to as the Triad area and consisting of Davidson and Guilford Counties). On-road mobile sources produce nitrogen oxides (NOx), particles less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM2.5), and sulfur dioxide (SO2), along with a host of other pollutants. Emissions of these pollutants are estimated in the mobile source inventory required for the maintenance plan. Mobile sources comprise about 74% of the NOx emissions in the Hickory and Triad fine particulate matter nonattainment areas. The scope of this document covers only the procedures associated with on-road mobile sources. Mobile source emissions are estimated by the methodologies suggested in the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) documents Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations, Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for State Implementation Plan Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other Purposes EPA- 420-B-09-046, December 2009), and Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity EPA-420-B-10-023, April 2010). In December 2009, the USEPA released a new model for mobile sources. MOVES (MOtor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) is a computer program designed by the USEPA to estimate air pollution emissions from mobile sources. MOVES2010 (hereafter referred to as MOVES) replaces the USEPA’s previous emissions model for on-road mobile sources, MOBILE6.2. MOVES is used to estimate exhaust and evaporative emissions as well as brake and tire wear emissions from all types of on-road vehicles. Compared to MOBILE6.2, MOVES incorporates substantial new emissions test data and accounts for changes in vehicle technology and regulations as well as improved understanding of in-use emission levels and the factors that influence them. Also, MOVES has a completely new database-centered software framework. On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 2 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 There is currently a two year grace period for transportation conformity purposes for use of MOVES as the new regulatory model. However, the North Carolina Division of Air Quality (NCDAQ) committed to provide supplemental data to the Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan when MOVES was released and approved for regulatory purposes. The estimation of emissions from mobile sources involves multiplying an activity level by an emission factor. Previously this was done using MOBILE6.2 to calculate an emissions factor and multiplying it by the vehicle miles travelled (VMT). One important new feature of MOVES is the option to calculate emissions either as inventory estimates (total emissions in units of mass) or, emission rates (emissions per unit of distance for running emissions or per vehicle for starts, extended idle and resting evaporative emissions) in a look-up table format. Use of the inventory option simplifies the post-processing of MOVES output compared to MOBILE6.2, but it requires VMT and vehicle population data as an input to MOVES. When using the emission rates option, VMT and vehicle population are applied during post-processing external to MOVES. Either approach can be used to develop emissions estimates for state implementation plans (SIPs) and regional conformity analyses. If inventory option is selected, MOVES provides emissions estimates as mass, using VMT and vehicle population entered by the user. If emission rate option is selected, MOVES provides emission rates as mass per unit of activity. The emission rates option produces a look-up table of emission rates that must be post-processed to produce an inventory. The NCDAQ is electing to run the model in the inventory mode due to faster model run times and fewer post-processing requirements. The USEPA has performed preliminary comparison of MOVES2010 to MOBILE6.2 using local data for several different urban areas, varying the local data used by fleet distribution, fraction of light- and heavy-duty VMT, local fuel specifications, meteorology, and other input factors. In general, volatile organic carbon (VOC) emissions are lower when using MOVES2010 when compared to MOBILE6.2, while NOx and particulate matter (PM) emissions are higher. The quality assurance (QA) for the highway mobile source category can be broken into two components: 1) input files and 2) MOVES outputs/summaries. Each of these components is detailed in the paragraphs below. After the speed and VMT information is acquired from the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), the speed information is checked for reasonableness against previous On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 3 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 sets of speeds for the areas. Once the speeds are deemed reasonable, the NCDAQ enters the speed information into MOVES input files. In addition to the speed information, the user enters data to characterize local meteorology, fleet and activity information. All input files are checked against a “key” with the original source of the information. This QA step is always performed by a person other than the one who generated the input files. If any discrepancies are found, they are noted back to the person who generated the input files for correction. Once the input files have passed through the QA procedure, MOVES is run to generate emissions. On-road mobile sources produce NOx, PM2.5, and SO2, along with a host of other pollutants. Emissions of these three pollutants are estimated in the on-road mobile source inventory for the maintenance plan. The objective of the following section is to describe the source category, the input files, and the emissions estimation procedures. This section also includes tables summarizing the estimated emissions for the projection years by county. On-road mobile sources are considered as those vehicles that travel on the roadways. On-road mobile sources are a major contributor to NOx emissions in North Carolina and a less significant contributor to primary PM2.5 and SO2. Emissions from motor vehicles occur throughout the day while the vehicle is in motion, at idle, parked, and during refueling. All of these emissions processes need to be estimated in order to properly reflect the total emissions from this source category. On-road mobile source emissions comprise a small percentage of the total fine particulate matter emissions for all of North Carolina. Particulate emissions from motor vehicles only occur while the vehicle is moving or idling. These emissions are direct tailpipe (from both gas and diesel fuel vehicles), sulfate, tire wear, and brake wear. Only direct particulate emissions processes will be estimated in order to properly reflect the total fine particulate matter emissions from this source category. A very important component of the highway mobile emission estimation process is interagency consultation. The primary transportation partners involved in the Hickory and Triad redesignation interagency consultation process included: NCDOT, USEPA, Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Greensboro Urban Area Municipal Planning Organization (MPO), On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 4 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 High Point Urban Area MPO, Piedmont Triad Rural Planning Organization (RPO), and Greater Hickory MPO. Specifically the NCDOT was consulted for input data such as speeds and VMT for the rural counties where the Hickory and Triad Urban Travel Demand Models (TDMs) did not cover. An interagency call was held April 19, 2010 to discuss the need to update the motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEBs) for the Greater Hickory and Triad areas. The NCDAQ had the data originally provided for the redesignation for the years 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021. The NCDAQ received updated speeds and VMT for the Triad (Davidson and Guilford Counties), in February 2009, as well as, updated speeds and VMT for Catawba County from NCDOT in April 2009. The NCDAQ discussed the differences anticipated in the emissions by running the MOVES model and the possible necessity to update the MVEBs in the Redesignation Package before the MOVES model would be required to be used for conformity purposes. The interagency partners agreed that the activity data that the NCDAQ had were the latest and should be used as inputs to the MOVES model. Due to the size and the complexity of the MOVES input and output files, the MOVES input files and output files will be provided electronically. Vehicle power, speed, and acceleration have a significant effect on vehicle emissions. MOVES models those emission effects by assigning activity to specific drive cycles or operating mode distributions. The distribution of vehicle hours traveled (VHT) by average speed is used to determine an appropriate operating mode distribution. The Average Speed Distribution importer in MOVES calls for a speed distribution in VHT in 16 speed bins, by each road type, source type, and hour of the day included in the analysis. The methodology used to develop the average speed distribution inputs is documented below. The speeds for the urban areas covered by a TDM were provided by the MPOs. Piedmont Authority for Regional Transportation (PART) provided modeled speeds for the entire county of Guilford and the modeled portion of Davidson County for the desired maintenance plan years. Speeds for rural areas in Davidson and the urban and rural areas in Catawba were generated by NCDOT. Modeled speeds for urban areas of Catawba County were received for the years 2007, 2015, 2025, and 2035, and interpolated to the years needed. Tables 4.2.1-1 through 4.2.1-5 provide a summary of the average speeds in miles per hour (mph). On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 5 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 68 68 68 68 67 Urban Freeway or Expressway 57 57 56 56 55 Urban Other Principal Arterial 39 39 38 38 39 Urban Minor Arterial 40 40 40 40 39 Urban Collector 42 41 42 42 41 Urban Local 46 45 45 45 44 Rural Interstate 69 68 68 68 68 Rural Other Principal Arterial --- --- --- 35 35 Rural Minor Arterial 51 51 51 51 50 Rural Major Collector 43 43 42 42 41 Rural Minor Collector 49 48 48 48 48 Rural Local 49 49 48 48 48 Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 62 63 62 62 62 Urban Freeway or Expressway 56 56 56 56 56 Urban Other Principal Arterial 28 29 28 28 29 Urban Minor Arterial 32 32 32 32 32 Urban Collector 31 31 31 31 31 Urban Local 31 31 31 31 31 Rural Interstate 65 66 65 65 65 Rural Other Principal Arterial 45 46 45 45 45 Rural Minor Arterial 44 44 44 44 44 Rural Major Collector 43 43 43 43 43 Rural Minor Collector 42 42 42 42 42 Rural Local 42 42 42 42 42 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 6 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 55 55 56 56 55 Urban Freeway or Expressway 51 51 50 50 51 Urban Other Principal Arterial 39 39 39 39 39 Urban Minor Arterial 37 37 38 38 38 Urban Collector 37 37 37 37 37 Urban Local 34 34 34 34 34 Rural Interstate 60 59 58 58 57 Rural Other Principal Arterial 47 48 50 50 49 Rural Minor Arterial 43 42 44 44 46 Rural Major Collector 46 46 46 46 45 Rural Minor Collector 47 47 47 47 46 Rural Local 43 42 46 46 45 Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 60 59 57 55 52 Urban Freeway or Expressway 46 46 45 45 44 Urban Other Principal Arterial 34 33 32 31 30 Urban Minor Arterial 34 33 32 31 30 Urban Collector 36 35 34 33 32 Urban Local 38 37 36 35 33 Rural Interstate 64 63 62 60 56 Rural Other Principal Arterial 59 59 58 58 57 Rural Minor Arterial 42 41 40 39 38 Rural Major Collector 43 43 42 42 41 Rural Minor Collector 37 36 35 35 34 Rural Local 42 42 41 41 40 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 7 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 63 63 63 63 63 Urban Freeway or Expressway 56 56 56 56 56 Urban Other Principal Arterial 29 29 29 29 29 Urban Minor Arterial 32 32 32 32 32 Urban Collector 31 31 31 31 31 Urban Local 31 31 31 31 31 Rural Interstate 63 63 63 63 63 Rural Other Principal Arterial 46 46 46 46 46 Rural Minor Arterial 44 44 44 44 44 Rural Major Collector 43 43 43 43 43 Rural Minor Collector 42 42 42 42 42 Rural Local 42 42 42 42 42 MOVES uses four different roadway type categories that are affected by the average speed distribution input: rural restricted access, rural unrestricted access, urban restricted access, and urban unrestricted access (these road types are discussed in more detail in Section 4.2.6). In MOVES, local roadways are included with arterials and collectors in the urban and rural unrestricted access roads category. In MOBILE6.2, local roadways were a separate category with a fixed speed of 12.9 mph. For MOVES, the USEPA recommends that the average speed distribution for local roadway activity be included as part of a weighted distribution of average speed across all unrestricted roads along with the distribution of average speeds for arterials and connectors. When only a single average speed is available for a specific road type and that average speed is not identical to the average speed in a particular speed bin, MOVES guidance stipulates that users should apply the following formula for creating the appropriate speed distribution among two adjacent speed bins. The general formula is: VHT Fraction A in Speed Bin with closest average speed lower than observed average speed + VHT Fraction B in Speed Bin with closest average speed higher that observed average speed = 1 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 8 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 VHT Fraction A(low bin) = 1 – [(observed average speed – average speed of lower speed bin) / (average speed of higher speed bin – average speed of lower speed bin)] VHT Fraction B(high bin) = 1- [(average speed of higher speed bin – observed average speed) / (average speed of higher speed bin – average speed of lower speed bin)] Or more simply: VHT Fraction B = 1 – VHT fraction A The following is an example of applying the above equations. If the single average speed for a roadway is 58 miles per hour, the average speed distribution will be split between the 55 and 60 mph speed bins. The appropriate VHT fractions are found with the following equations: VHT fraction A(low bin) = 1 – [(58 mph Avg. Speed – 55 mph (Bin Speed)) / (60 mph (Bin Speed) – 55 mph (Bin Speed)] = 0.4 VHT fraction B(high bin) = 1 – [(60 mph (Bin Speed) – 58 mph Avg. Speed) / (60 mph (Bin Speed) – 55 mph (Bin Speed)] = 0.6 VHT Fraction A(low bin) + VHT Fraction B(high bin) = 1 0.4 + 0.6 = 1 As stated above, MOVES uses only four different roadway types: rural restricted access, rural unrestricted access, urban restricted access and urban unrestricted access. This means that the speeds for multiple roadway types need to be combined into the appropriate speed bins. To create the speed bin fractions for combined roadways the VMT for each road way is used to weight the speed bin fraction. For example, below are speeds and VMT for urban restricted access road types: Road type Speed (miles/hour) VMT (hourly miles) Urban Interstate 63 250,000 Urban Freeway 56 100,000 The first step is to determine the speed bin fractions for each road type separately. For the urban interstate road type, the speed 63 is split between the MOVES speed bins of 60 and 65 as described above, which results in the VHT fractions of 0.4 and 0.6 for speed bins 60 and 65, respectively. Similarly, the speed for the urban freeway road type (56 miles/hour) is split On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 9 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 between the MOVES speed bins of 55 and 60 and results in the VHT fractions of 0.8 and 0.2, respectively. The next step requires road type VMT to weigh the VHT Fractions so that the final MOVES speed bin fractions can be developed. The VHT Fraction, specific to the road type and speed bin, are multiplied by the corresponding hourly VMT. These hourly totals are divided by the total VMT for that hour for the road type category (in this example, urban restricted access includes urban interstate and urban freeway). The following equation is used to calculate the combined speed bin fractions: Where: RT = the HPMS road type In this example, the HPMS road types are urban interstate (UI) and urban freeway (UF) and the speed bins are 55, 60 and 65. The table below summarizes the speed bin fractions for this example. HPMS Road Type Speed Bin 55 Speed Bin 60 Speed Bin 65 Urban Interstate 0.0 0.4 0.6 Urban Freeway 0.8 0.2 0.0 Using the equation below, the final MOVES speed bin fractions are calculated for the urban restricted access road type. VHT(Speed Bin X) = [(VHT Fraction(UI) * hourly VMT(UI)) + (VHT Fraction(UF) * hourly VMT(UF))] (hourly VMT(UI) + hourly VMT(UF)) VHT(Speed Bin 55) = [(0.0 * 250,000) + (0.8 * 100,000)] (250,000 + 100,000) VHT(Speed Bin 55) = 0.2286 VHT(Speed Bin 60) = [(0.4 * 250,000) + (0.2 * 100,000)] (250,000 + 100,000) VHT(Speed Bin 60) = 0.3428 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 10 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 VHT(Speed Bin 65) = [(0.6 * 250,000) + (0.0 * 100,000)] (250,000 + 100,000) VHT(Speed Bin 65) = 0.4286 The sum of the VHT fractions for all speed bins within a road type category must add up to 1.0. The hourly VHT fractions by speed bin and road type are then processed through a MOVES supplied converter to develop the speed distribution file by hour and road type. The age distribution of vehicle fleets can vary significantly from area to area. Fleets with a higher percentage of older vehicles will have higher emissions for two reasons. Older vehicles have typically been driven more miles and have experienced more deterioration in emission control systems. Additionally, a higher percentage of older vehicles also implies that there are more vehicles in the fleet that do not meet newer, more stringent emissions standards. Surveys of registration data indicate considerable local variability in vehicle age distributions. For SIP and conformity purposes, the USEPA recommends and encourages states to develop local age distributions. The MOVES model categorizes the vehicle fleet into different vehicle classes and more model years than MOBILE6.2. A typical vehicle fleet includes a mix of vehicles of different ages. MOVES covers a 31 year range of vehicle ages, with vehicles 30 years and older grouped together. MOVES allows the user to specify the fraction of vehicles in each of 30 vehicle ages for each of the 13 source types in the model. Local age distributions can be estimated from local vehicle registration data. The vehicle age distribution comes from annual registration data for North Carolina from the NCDOT. For this analysis, the age distribution was generated based on 2008 data, the latest available count data at the time. The NCDOT provided the data based on the number of vehicle types per year from 1975 through 2008. The data obtained from the NCDOT has the vehicles greater than 25 years old combined and included as the 25th model year. Additionally, the NCDOT data has the vehicle count information provided for nine vehicle types; light duty gas vehicles (LDGV), light duty diesel vehicles (LDDV), light duty gas trucks 1 (LDGT1), light duty gas trucks 2 (LDGT2), light duty diesel trucks 1 (LDDT1), light duty diesel trucks 2 (LDDT2), heavy duty gas vehicles (HDGV), heavy duty diesel vehicles (HDDV) and motorcycles (MC). LDDT1 and LDDT2 are combined and labeled as light duty diesel trucks (LDDT). Since MOVES categorizes the vehicle fleet into different vehicle classes and more model years, the USEPA has created data converters On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 11 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 that take registration distribution input files created for MOBILE6.2 and converts them to the appropriate age distribution input tables for MOVES. Vehicle mix or VMT mix is used by MOVES to convert annual VMT to VMT by HPMS class, VMT fractions by hour, and VMT by road type distribution. The vehicle mix is developed by the same method used in MOBILE6.2, as outlined below. The resulting file is then used in a MOVES supplied converter to develop the VMT by HPMS class, VMT fractions by hour, and VMT by road type distribution. The vehicle mix refers to the percentage of different vehicle types on each of the 12 FHWA road types. These road types are listed above in the speed assumptions section. It is critical for estimating on-road mobile source emissions in an area to use data that accurately reflects the vehicles types traveling on each of these different road types. In August 2004, the USEPA released the guidance document EPA420-R-04-013 Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation, which outlines how to convert the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) traffic count data to MOBILE6.2 vehicle mix data Outlined below is the methodology used to convert the 13 HPMS vehicle types count data reported to FHWA and generate a state specific vehicle mix. The North Carolina HPMS data used to generate the new statewide vehicle mix was based on 2008 data counts. This is the latest available statewide count information at the time of the modeling. Table 4.2.3-1 shows the percent of vehicles per vehicle type for each of the 12 road classes. On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 12 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Section 4.1.5 of Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation, illustrates how to map the HPMS statewide vehicle data to general MOBILE6.2 vehicle categories. This mapping is outlined in Table 4.2.4-1 below: Motorcycle Motorcycle (MC) Passenger Car Passenger Car (LDV) Other 2-Axel, 4-Tire Vehicles Light Truck (LDT) Busses Bus (HDB) All Other Trucks: Single unit, 2-axel, 6-tire Single unit, 3-axel Single unit, 4 or more axel Single trailer, 4 or fewer axel Single trailer, 5-axel Single trailer, 6 or more axel Multi-trailer, 5 or fewer axel Multi-trailer, 6-axel Multi-trailer, 7 or more axel Heavy Duty Truck (HDV) The HPMS data in Table 4.2.3-1 was grouped into these five general categories for each road type. In order to expand the five general categories to the 16 vehicle types used in MOBILE6.2, the national average VMT fractions by each vehicle class were used. The 2008 fractions were used since the state specific data is from 2008. The national average data was obtained from Table 4.1.2 in Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation. An example for rural interstates is illustrated below: From Table 4.2.3-1 above: Passenger Cars = 60.13% 5 axel Trailer = 17.65% Pickup Trucks = 13.72% 6 axel Trailer = 0.66% Bus = 1.04% 5 axel Multi Trailer = 0.51% 2 axel Trucks = 2.86% 6 axel Multi Trailer = 0.23% 3 axel Trucks = 0.75% 7 axel Multi Trailer = 0.15% 4 axel Trucks = 0.05% Motorcycles = 0.38% 4 axel Trailer = 1.86% On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 13 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Therefore, the five general categories are: Motorcycles = 0.38% Light Duty Vehicles = 60.13% Light Duty Trucks = 13.72% Heavy Duty Buses = 1.04% Heavy Duty Vehicles = 24.73% From Table 4.1.2 in Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation, the 2008 national average vehicle mix for light duty trucks, buses and heavy duty trucks are: Light Duty Trucks Heavy Duty Trucks LDT1 = 0.0846 LDT2 = 0.2817 LDT3 = 0.0868 LDT4 = 0.0399 Buses Using the methodology described in Section 4.1.5 in Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation the new 2008 North Carolina statewide mix was developed. The basic formula for developing the mix is shown below, Vehicle Type = (2008 M6.2 fraction for vehicle) X (2008 State total for group) . (2008 M6.2 total for subcategory) Table 4.2.4-2 displays the calculation for each vehicle type for the 2008 rural interstate vehicle mix. HDV2B = 0.0388 HDV3 = 0.0038 HDV4 = 0.0031 HDV5 = 0.0024 HDV6 = 0.0087 HDV7 = 0.0102 HDV8A = 0.0111 HDBS = 0.0020 HDV8B = 0.0397 HDBT = 0.0009 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 14 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Vehicle Type Calculation New 2008 Mix LDV = LDV = 0.6013 MC = MC = 0.0038 Light Duty Trucks LDT1 = 0.0846 x (0.1372/0.4930) = 0.0235 LDT2 = 0.2817 x (0.1372/0.4930) = 0.0784 LDT3 = 0.0868 x (0.1372/0.4930) = 0.0242 LDT4 = 0.0399 x (0.1372/0.4930) = 0.0111 Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV2B = 0.0388 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0815 HDV3 = 0.0038 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0080 HDV4 = 0.0031 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0065 HDV5 = 0.0024 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0050 HDV6 = 0.0087 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0183 HDV7 = 0.0102 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0214 HDV8A = 0.0111 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0233 HDV8B = 0.0397 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0833 Buses HDBS = 0.0020 x (0.0104/0.0029) = 0.0072 HDBT = 0.0009 x (0.0104/0.0029) = 0.0032 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2021 Statewide Vehicle Mix Once the 2008 new vehicle mix was generated, the other years were created using the methodology described in Section 4.1.4 in Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation. This method grouped light duty vehicles, light duty trucks and motorcycles together and heavy duty buses, heavy duty trucks and heavy duty vehicles together. The combined percentages for these groupings are listed below. Light Duty Vehicles = 74.23% Heavy Duty Vehicles = 25.77% On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 15 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 The MOBILE6.2 vehicle mix fractions for the year being developed were obtained from Table 4.1.2 in Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation. The MOBILE6.2 vehicle fractions for 2008 are listed below. Light Duty Vehicles Heavy Duty Vehicles The North Carolina 2008 vehicle mix was normalized to the MOBILE6.2 fractions using the following formula: Vehicle Type = (2008 M6 fraction for vehicle) X (2008 State total for group) (2008 M6 total for group) Table 4.2.4-3 below displays the calculations used to generate the 2008 North Carolina vehicle mix for rural interstate. LDV = 0.3807 LDT1 = 0.0846 LDT2 = 0.2817 LDT3 = 0.0868 LDT4 = 0.0399 MC = 0.0056 HDV2B = 0.0388 HDV3 = 0.0038 HDV4 = 0.0031 HDV5 = 0.0024 HDV6 = 0.0087 HDV7 = 0.0102 HDV8A = 0.0111 HDV8B = 0.0397 HDBS = 0.0020 HDBT = 0.0009 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 16 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Vehicle Type Calculation 2008 State Mix Light Duty Vehicles LDV = 0.3807 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.3219 LDT1 = 0.0846 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.0715 LDT2 = 0.2817 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.2381 LDT3 = 0.0868 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.0734 LDT4 = 0.0399 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.0337 MC = 0.0038 Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV2B = 0.0388 x (0.2472/0.1178) = 0.0814 HDV3 = 0.0038 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0080 HDV4 = 0.0031 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0065 HDV5 = 0.0024 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0050 HDV6 = 0.0087 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0183 HDV7 = 0.0102 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0214 HDV8A = 0.0111 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0233 HDV8B = 0.0397 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0833 HDBS = 0.0020 x (0.0104/0.0029) = 0.0072 HDBT = 0.0009 x (0.0104/0.0029) = 0.0032 This method was used to generate all of the future year vehicle mixes that were needed to compute the emission factors. The North Carolina transportation partners consider the statewide vehicle mix to be the best representation of the vehicle population in the Hickory and Triad nonattainment area. The vehicle mixes for all years can be found in Section 5.1 of this appendix. As stated earlier in this section, vehicle mix or VMT mix is used in MOVES converters to develop VMT by HPMS class, VMT fractions by hour, and VMT by road type distribution, which are inputs to the model. The Vehicles/Equipment menu item and panel is used to specify the vehicle types that are included in the MOVES run. MOVES allows the user to select from among 13 “source use On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 17 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 types” (the terminology that MOVES uses to describe vehicle types), and four different fuel types (gasoline, diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), and electricity). For SIP and regional conformity analyses, users must select the appropriate fuel and vehicle type combinations in the On Road Vehicle Equipment panel to reflect the full range of vehicles that will operate in the county. For this analysis all valid diesel, gasoline, and CNG (only transit buses) vehicle and fuel combinations were selected. The Road Type Panel is used to define the types of roads that are included in the run. MOVES defines five different Road Types: • Off-Network (roadtype 1) – all locations where the predominant activity is vehicle starts, parking and idling (parking lots, truck stops, rest areas, freight or bus terminals) • Rural Restricted Access (2) – rural highways that can only be accessed by an on-ramp • Rural Unrestricted Access (3) – all other rural roads (arterials, connectors, and local streets) • Urban Restricted Access (4) – urban highways or freeways that can only be accessed by an on-ramp • Urban Unrestricted Access (5) – all other urban roads (arterials, connectors, and local streets) Users should select the road types present in the area being analyzed. The determination of rural or urban road types should be based on the HPMS classification of the roads in the county being analyzed. The NCDAQ followed the USEPA guidance that states that all SIP and regional conformity analyses must include the Off-Network road type in order to account for emissions from vehicle starts, extended idle activity, and evaporative emissions (for hydrocarbons). The Off-Network road type is automatically selected when start or extended idle pollutant processes are chosen and must be selected for all evaporative emissions to be quantified. Off-Network activity in MOVES is primarily determined by the Source Type Population input, which is described in Section 4.2.9 of this document. Some evaporative emissions are estimated on roadways (i.e., roadtypes 2, 3, 4, and 5) to account for evaporative emissions that occur when vehicles are driving. All roads types are automatically selected when Refueling emission processes are selected. On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 18 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 MOVES uses Road Type to assign default drive cycles to activity on road types 2, 3, 4, and 5. For example, for unrestricted access road types, MOVES uses drive cycles that assume stop and go driving, including multiple accelerations, decelerations, and short periods of idling. For restricted access road types, MOVES uses drive cycles that include a higher fraction of cruise activity with less time spent accelerating or idling, although some ramp activity is also included. In MOVES, pollutant refers to particular types of pollutants or precursors of the pollutant, such as PM or NOx, while process refers to the mechanism by which emissions are created, such as running exhaust or start exhaust. Users must select all processes associated with a particular pollutant in order to account for all emissions of that pollutant. For example, there are 11 separate pollutant processes in MOVES fo
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Title | Redesignation demonstration and maintenance plan for the Hickory (Catawba County) and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point (Davidson and Guilford Counties) fine particulate matter nonattainment areas |
Other Title | Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point annual PM2.5 : redesignation demonstration and maintenance plan; Redesignation demonstration and maintenance plan |
Contributor | North Carolina. Division of Air Quality. |
Date | 2010-12-22 |
Subjects |
Air quality--North Carolina--Hickory Air quality--North Carolina--Greensboro Air quality--North Carolina--Winston-Salem Air quality--North Carolina--High Point |
Place |
Hickory, Catawba County, North Carolina, United States Greensboro, Guilford County, North Carolina, United States Winston-Salem, Forsyth County, North Carolina, United States High Point, Guilford County, North Carolina, United States |
Description | Rev. ed.; "December 18, 2009, revised December 22, 2010." |
Publisher | North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Division of Air Quality |
Agency-Current | North Carolina Division of Air Quality, Department of Environmental Quality |
Rights | State Document see http://digital.ncdcr.gov/u?/p249901coll22,63754 |
Physical Characteristics | 175 p. of electronic text : digital, PDF file. |
Collection | North Carolina State Documents Collection. State Library of North Carolina |
Type | Text |
Language | English |
Format | Documents |
Digital Characteristics-A | 2757 KB; 175 p. |
Digital Collection | North Carolina Digital State Documents Collection |
Digital Format | application/pdf |
Related Items | http://worldcat.org/oclc/819443648/viewonline |
Audience | All |
Pres File Name-M | pubs_redesignationdemonstrationmaintenance201012.pdf |
Pres Local File Path-M | \Preservation_content\StatePubs\pubs_borndigital\images_master\ |
Full Text | Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 i Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 This document contains the technical support for North Carolina’s Division of Air Quality to request the Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point fine particulate matter nonattainment areas be redesignated as attainment for the annual fine particulate matter national ambient air quality standard pursuant to §§107(d)(3)(D) and (E) of the Clean Air Act, as amended. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 ii Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Fine particulate matter, also known as fine particles and PM2.5, refers to airborne particles less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers in diameter. Fine particles are treated as though they are a single pollutant, but they come from many different sources and are composed of many different compounds. PM2.5 exposure adversely affects human health, especially respiratory and cardiovascular systems. Individuals particularly sensitive to PM2.5 exposure include children, people with heart and lung disease, and older adults. A variety of meteorological and geographic factors influence the concentration levels of fine particles, including both the regional and local distribution of urbanized areas, primary and precursor emissions sources, and natural features such as oceans and forests. PM2.5 concentrations can also be high and exceed the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQSs) for fine particulate matter at any time of the year. Therefore, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) mandates the year round monitoring of PM2.5 concentrations throughout the country. The nonattainment designation was an action taken by the USEPA under Section 107(d) of the Clean Air Act (CAA). The CAA requires that some areas be designated as nonattainment if a monitor is found to be in violation of a NAAQS. The USEPA took designation action in 2005 based on the ambient data from 2001-2003. At that time, the design value for Hickory area (Catawba County) was 15.6 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m3) and the design value for the Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point area (Davidson and Guilford Counties, referred to as the Triad area) was 15.9 μg/m3. The most recent three years of fine particulate monitoring data (2006-2008) for both the Hickory and Triad PM2.5 nonattainment areas demonstrate compliance with the annual fine particulate matter NAAQS. The three year design value at the Hickory monitor is 14.2 μg/m3. In the Triad nonattainment area, the three year design value at the Lexington monitor is 14.5 μg/m3 and the three year design value at the Mendenhall monitor is 12.9 μg/m3. Additionally, the annual design values at all three sites are trending downward. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 iii Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The State of North Carolina has implemented permanent and enforceable reductions in sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which are precursors to fine particulates. These actions include implementing the on-board diagnostic vehicle inspection and maintenance program that began on July 1, 2002, and an open burning ban during air quality action days. In addition, there have been several State rules that have resulted in reductions in emissions within and surrounding the nonattainment area. These State actions include the NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call, the Clean Smokestacks Act legislation, and heavy-duty engine stop-gap rule for model years 2005 and 2006. Finally, several actions at the Federal level by the USEPA have resulted in lower emissions throughout the eastern portion of the country. These Federal actions include the Tier 2 engine standards for light and medium duty vehicles, heavy-duty engine standards, the low sulfur gasoline and diesel requirements, and off-road engine standards. This combination of State and Federal actions has resulted in cleaner air in the PM2.5 nonattainment areas, and the anticipated future benefits from these programs are expected to result in continued maintenance of the 1997 annual PM2.5 NAAQS in this region. A baseline year emissions inventory for NOx, SO2, and direct PM2.5 was developed for 2008, since the design value for the 2006-2008 period showed attainment of the 1997 annual PM2.5 NAAQS. Future year emissions inventories were also developed for the interim years 2011, 2014, 2017, and a final year emission inventory was developed for 2021. The future year emissions were lower than the 2008 emissions in all cases. This demonstrates that the PM2.5 nonattainment areas are expected to maintain the 1997 annual PM2.5 NAAQS through 2021, since in no future year are the emissions expected to be greater than they were in the baseline year. The areas are also in compliance with Section 110 and Part D requirements of the CAA. Based on the information above and criteria established in Section 107(d)(3)(E) of the CAA, North Carolina is requesting that the USEPA redesignate the Hickory and Greensboro/Winston- Salem/High Point fine particulate matter nonattainment areas to attainment. The monitoring data clearly shows that the region has attained the annual fine particulate matter standard, and the maintenance demonstration shows that the future emission inventories are expected to be lower than the attainment year inventory through the implementation of the various control measures listed above. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 iv Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ ii 1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 WHAT IS FINE PARTICULATE MATTER? ................................................................. 1-1 1.2 CLEAN AIR ACT OF 1990 .............................................................................................. 1-2 1.3 AIR QUALITY HISTORY ............................................................................................... 1-2 1.4 CLEAN AIR ACT REDESIGNATION CRITERIA ........................................................ 1-3 2.0 AIR QUALITY ...................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 HISTORIC AIR QUALITY (1999 – 2007) ...................................................................... 2-1 2.2 RECENT AIR QUALITY VALUES (2006 –2008) ......................................................... 2-3 2.3 PERMANENT AND ENFORCEABLE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ........................... 2-4 3.0 MAINTENANCE PLAN ....................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 CONCEPT OF NORTH CAROLINA'S MAINTENANCE PLAN ................................. 3-1 3.2 FOUNDATION CONTROL PROGRAM ........................................................................ 3-2 3.2.1 Federal Control Measures .......................................................................................... 3-2 3.2.2 State Control Measures .............................................................................................. 3-5 3.2.3 Additional Programs Supporting Maintenance .......................................................... 3-9 3.3 EMISSIONS INVENTORIES AND MAINTENANCE DEMONSTRATION ............. 3-10 3.3.1 Theory of Approach ................................................................................................. 3-10 3.3.2 Emission Inventories ................................................................................................ 3-11 3.3.3 Summary of Emissions ............................................................................................ 3-15 3.3.4 Maintenance Demonstration .................................................................................... 3-16 3.4 CONTINGENCY PLAN ................................................................................................. 3-17 3.4.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. 3-17 3.4.2 Primary and Secondary Triggers ............................................................................. 3-18 3.4.3 Action Resulting From Trigger Activation .............................................................. 3-19 3.4.4 Tracking Program for Ongoing Maintenance .......................................................... 3-20 4.0 MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS BUDGET FOR CONFORMITY ................................... 4-1 4.1 TRANSPORTATION CONFORMITY ............................................................................ 4-1 4.2 POLLUTANTS TO BE CONSIDERED ........................................................................... 4-1 4.2.1 Precursor Pollutants NOx, VOC, and Ammonia ........................................................ 4-2 4.2.2 Reentrained Road Dust .............................................................................................. 4-2 4.2.3 Precursor Pollutant SO2 ............................................................................................. 4-3 4.2.4 Direct PM2.5 Emissions .............................................................................................. 4-5 4.3 SAFETY MARGIN ........................................................................................................... 4-7 4.4 MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGETS ................................................................... 4-7 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 v Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 4.5 NEW SAFETY MARGINS ............................................................................................ 4-10 5.0 STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN APPROVAL ............................................................. 5-1 5.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 5-1 5.2 EVIDENCE OF COMPLIANCE ...................................................................................... 5-1 6.0 STATE COMPLIANCE WITH CLEAN AIR ACT REQUIREMENTS.............................. 6-1 7.0 CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................................... 7-1 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 vi Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 APPENDIX A: CORRESPONDENCE AND GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS APPENDIX B: STAKEHOLDER CORRESPONDENCE REGARDING MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGETS APPENDIX C.1: POINT SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY DOCUMENTATION APPENDIX C.2: AREA SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY DOCUMENTATION APPENDIX C.3: ON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY DOCUMENTATION APPENDIX C.4: NONROAD MOBILE SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY DOCUMENTATION APPENDIX D: MENDENHALL DATA REPLACEMENT DOCUMENTATION APPENDIX E: PUBLIC NOTICE REPORT, COMMENTS RECEIVED AND RESPONSES Table 2-1 Historic PM2.5 Annual Averages (1999-2007) ............................................................ 2-2 Table 2-2 Historic PM2.5 Design Values (2000 – 2007) .............................................................. 2-3 Table 2-3 Current PM2.5 Data (2006 -2008) ................................................................................ 2-4 Table 2-4. Annual Emissions from NC Sources in USEPA Acid Rain Database ....................... 2-7 Table 2-5. Annual SO2 Emissions for Utilities Near the PM2.5 Nonattainment areas (tons/year) 2-9 Table 3-1 OBDII Phase-in Effective Dates ................................................................................. 3-6 Table 3-2 I/M NOx Benefits by County ....................................................................................... 3-6 Table 3-3 Estimated Emission Reductions from Open Burning Regulation ............................... 3-8 Table 3-4. Point Source NOx Emissions (tons per year) ............................................................ 3-11 Table 3-5 Point Source SO2 Emissions (tons per year) ............................................................. 3-12 Table 3-6. Point Source PM2.5 Emissions (tons per year) .......................................................... 3-12 Table 3-7. Area Source NOx Emissions (tons per year) ............................................................ 3-12 Table 3-8. Area Source SO2 Emissions (tons per year) ............................................................. 3-13 Table 3-9. Area Source PM2.5 Emissions (tons per year) .......................................................... 3-13 Table 3-10. On-road Mobile Source NOx Emissions (tons per year) ........................................ 3-13 Table 3-11. On-road Mobile Source SO2 Emissions (tons per year) ......................................... 3-14 Table 3-12. On-road Mobile Source PM2.5 Emissions (tons per year) ...................................... 3-14 Table 3-13. Nonroad Mobile Source NOx Emissions (tons per year) ........................................ 3-14 Table 3-14. Nonroad Mobile Source SO2 Emissions (tons per year) ........................................ 3-15 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 vii Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Table 3-15. Nonroad Mobile Source PM2.5 Emissions (tons per year) ...................................... 3-15 Table 3-16. Total Man-Made NOx Emissions (tons per year) ................................................... 3-15 Table 3-17. Total Man-Made SO2 Emissions (tons per year) .................................................... 3-15 Table 3-18. Total Man-Made PM2.5 Emissions (tons per year) ................................................. 3-16 Table 3-19 Maintenance Demonstration for Hickory PM2.5 Nonattainment Area ................... 3-16 Table 3-20 Maintenance Demonstration for Triad PM2.5 Nonattainment Area ........................ 3-16 Table 3-21 Safety Margin for Hickory PM2.5 Nonattainment Area .......................................... 3-17 Table 3-22 Safety Margin for Triad PM2.5 Nonattainment Area ............................................... 3-17 Table 4-1. On-Road Mobile Source PM2.5 Emissions ................................................................ 4-8 Table 4-2. On-Road Mobile Source NOx Emissions .................................................................. 4-9 Table 4-3 Catawba County MVEB ............................................................................................. 4-9 Table 4-4 Davidson County MVEB ........................................................................................... 4-9 Table 4-5 Guilford County MVEB ........................................................................................... 4-10 Table 4-6 New Safety Margins for the Hickory PM2.5 nonattainment area .............................. 4-10 Table 4-7 New Safety Margins for the Triad PM2.5 nonattainment area .................................. 4-11 Figure 1-1. USEPA Designated Annual PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas in North Carolina ........... 1-3 Figure 2-1. PM2.5 Monitor Locations in the PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas................................... 2-1 Figure 2-3. Location of Power Plants in the Vicinity of the PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas .......... 2-8 Figure 3-1. North Carolina’s Inspection & Maintenance (I/M) Phase-In Map .......................... 3-5 Figure 4-1. Speciated Data for the Hickory area (left) and the Triad area (right) ....................... 4-3 Figure 4-2. North Carolina’s 2009 Statewide SO2 Emissions .................................................... 4-4 Figure 4-3. Hickory Area 2009 Primary PM2.5 Emissions ........................................................... 4-6 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 viii Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Acronym Definition ºF Degrees Fahrenheit CAA Clean Air Act CAAA Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 CERR Consolidated Emissions Reporting Rule CFR Code of Federal Regulations CO Carbon Monoxide E-GAS 5.0 Economic Growth Analysis System version 5.0 FR Federal Register FRM Federal Reference Method GUAMPO Greensboro Urban Area Metropolitan Planning Organization HC Hydrocarbons I/M Inspection and Maintenance MVEB Motor Vehicle Emission Budget NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standard NCCSA North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Act NCDAQ North Carolina Division of Air Quality NCDENR North Carolina Department of Natural Resources NCDOT North Carolina Department of Transportation NOx Nitrogen Oxides PM Particulate Matter PM2.5 Fine Particulate Matter ppm Parts per million QA Quality Assure SAFETY-LU Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users SIP State Implementation Plan SO2 Sulfur Dioxide SOx Sulfur Oxides SUV Sports Utility Vehicle TIP Transportation Improvement Program TPD Tons per Day TSP Total Suspended Particulates USEPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled VOC Volatile Organic Compounds μg/m3 Micrograms per cubic meter μm Micrometer Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 1-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Fine particulate matter, also known as fine particles and PM2.5, refers to airborne particles less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (μm) in diameter. Fine particles are treated as though they are a single pollutant, but they come from many different sources and are composed of many different compounds. PM2.5 exposure adversely affects human health, especially respiratory and cardiovascular systems. Individuals particularly sensitive to PM2.5 exposure include children, people with heart and lung disease, and older adults. PM2.5 can be liquid, solid, or can have a solid core surrounded by liquid. PM2.5 can include material produced by combustion, photochemical reactions, and can contain salt from sea spray and soil-like particles. Particles are distinguished based on the method of formation. Primary particles are particles directly emitted into the atmosphere and retain the same chemical composition as when they were released. Secondary particles are those formed through chemical reactions involving atmospheric oxygen, water vapor, hydroxyl radical, nitrates, sulfur dioxide (SO2), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and organic gases from natural and anthropogenic sources. PM2.5 can therefore be composed of varying amounts of different species, including: • Sulfates • Nitrates (usually found in the form of ammonium nitrate) • Ammonium • Hydrogen ion • Particle bound water • Elemental carbon • Organic compounds Primary organic species (from cooking and combustion) Secondary organic compounds • Crustal material (includes calcium, aluminum, silicon, magnesium, and iron) • Sea salt (generally only found at coastal monitoring sites) • Transitional metals • Potassium (generally from wood burning or cooking) Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 1-2 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The most significant sources of PM2.5 and its precursors are coal-fired power plants, industrial boilers and other combustion sources. These emissions are often transported over large distances. Other sources of PM2.5 emissions include mobile sources, area sources, fires, windblown dust, and biogenic, i.e., naturally occurring emissions such as sea salt from oceans and organics from trees. A variety of meteorological and geographic factors influence the concentration levels of fine particles, including both the regional and local distribution of urbanized areas, primary and precursor emissions sources, and natural features such as oceans and forests. PM2.5 concentrations can also be high and exceed the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQSs) for fine particulate matter at any time of the year. Therefore, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) mandates in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) the year round monitoring of PM2.5 concentrations throughout the country (40 CFR 58.App. D, 4.7). In 1997, the USEPA promulgated the primary (health) and secondary (welfare) NAAQSs for PM2.5 (40 CFR 50.7), setting the standard at a 15.0 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m3) annual average and at a 65 μg/m3 daily or 24-hour average. A violation of the annual PM2.5 NAAQS occurs when the annual average PM2.5 concentration averaged over a three consecutive year period is equal to or greater than 15.1 μg/m3. A violation of the daily PM2.5 NAAQS occurs when the annual 98th percentile of daily PM2.5 concentration averaged over a three consecutive year period is equal to or greater than 66 μg/m3. The annual or daily PM2.5 design value for a nonattainment area is the highest design value for any monitor in that area. Since the 1977 amendments to the Clean Air Act (CAA), areas of the country that had not attained the ambient standard for a particular pollutant were formally designated as nonattainment for that pollutant. This formal designation concept was retained in the 1990 CAA Amendments (CAAA). With the implementation of the PM2.5 standard, areas could be designated under Section 172 of the CAAA (subpart 1) and have five years from designation to attain the standard. On January 5, 2005, the USEPA designated the Hickory area (Catawba County) and the Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point area (referred to as the Triad area and consisting of Davidson and Guilford Counties) as “subpart 1” nonattainment for the annual PM2.5 standard based on the ambient data from 2001-2003 (Figure 1-1). At that time, the design values for the Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 1-3 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas were 15.6 μg/m3 and 15.9 μg/m3, respectively. The official designation and classification was published in the Federal Register (FR) on January 5, 2005 (70 FR 944) and became effective on April 5, 2005. Prior to the implementation of the new PM2.5 standard, these areas had been in attainment of the coarse particulate matter (PM10) and total suspended particulate matter (TSP) standards. All areas of North Carolina met the 1997 daily PM2.5 standard. All violating monitors were attaining the annual PM2.5 standard with the inclusion of the 2008 ambient data. The 2006-2008 design values for the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas are 14.2 μg/m3 and 14.5 μg/m3, respectively. Both areas continue to attain the daily PM2.5 standard. Section 107(d) (3) (E) of the CAA, as amended, states an area can be redesignated to attainment if the following conditions are met: 1. The USEPA has determined that the NAAQS have been attained. For fine particulate matter, the areas must show that the average of the annual average values from three (3) consecutive calendar years of quality-assured air quality monitoring data must be 15.0 μg/m3 or lower. 2. The applicable implementation plan has been fully approved by the USEPA under section 110(k). Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 1-4 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 3. The USEPA has determined that the improvement in air quality is due to permanent and enforceable reductions in emissions. To demonstrate this, the State should estimate the percent reduction (from the year used to determine the design value for designation and classification) achieved from Federal, State, and local measures. 4. The State has met all applicable requirements for the area under Section 110 and Part D. 5. The USEPA has fully approved a maintenance plan, including a contingency plan, for the areas under section 175A. In the sections to follow, the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Division of Air Quality (NCDAQ) will provide the technical data necessary to show that both the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas have attained and are expected to maintain the annual fine particulate matter standard, and have met the requirements for redesignation set forth above. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The NCDAQ has collected ambient monitoring data for Catawba, Davidson, and Guilford Counties since 1999. At the time of fine particulate matter designations, there were three Federal Reference Method (FRM) monitors for fine particulate matter in the three counties; Hickory, Lexington, and Mendenhall (Figure 2-1). In late 2007, another PM2.5 FRM monitor was installed in Guilford County, located in Colfax which is located just west of Greensboro. These monitors were installed in accordance with the 40 CFR 58. Data from the fourth quarter of 2006 at Mendenhall is incomplete due to construction at the monitoring site and complications in relocating the site. The NCDAQ had to move the site since the school where the monitoring site is located constructed a two-story field house immediately adjacent to the monitoring site (letter to USEPA Region 4, Appendix D). The school had not notified the NCDAQ of its intention to build the field house. During a routine site visit, the NCDAQ discovered that construction had started within four meters of the monitoring site. At that point, the monitor no longer met the ambient monitoring siting criteria and had to be shut down and moved. A new site was promptly found and appropriate permits were applied for. It took the NCDAQ four months (instead of an estimated 3 weeks) to resolve all the necessary permits and complete Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-2 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 the relocation of the monitor. This unfortunate circumstance resulted in most of the fourth quarter to go unmonitored. The USEPA guidance does not address missing monitoring data for an entire quarter. The NCDAQ decided the best option was to develop regressive analysis between Mendenhall and surrounding monitors. Data from surrounding monitors was incorporated into the regressive analysis to obtain a best estimate for the fourth quarter at Mendenhall. Please see Appendix D for more details. The Mendenhall monitor has never violated the PM2.5 standards and has consistently had annual averages that were 1 – 2 μg/m3 below the annual PM2.5 NAAQS. The NCDAQ is confident that had the monitor been operating during the 2006 fourth quarter, the ambient air quality levels would have been consistent with the estimated values the NCDAQ has developed. The USEPA has also proposed to determine that the Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point nonattainment area has attained the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS (74 FR 51249). Tables 2-1 and 2-2 below show the air quality data and corresponding design values, respectively, for the monitors in the both the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas from 1999 to 2006. Table 2-2 indicates that the Hickory and Lexington monitors were in violation of the PM2.5 NAAQS for this period, while the Mendenhall monitor was consistently below the annual PM2.5 standard. Monitor Fine Particulate Matter Annual Average (μg/m3) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Hickory Nonattainment Area Hickory AIRS ID #37-035-0004 Catawba County 17.42 17.63 15.98 15.36 15.04 15.00 15.95 15.17 14.54 Triad Nonattainment Area Lexington AIRS ID #37-057-0002 Davidson County 17.34 18.04 16.45 15.88 15.17 15.18 15.40 15.13 14.64 Mendenhall AIRS ID #37-081-0013 Guilford County 13.72 13.32 13.97 14.01 14.06* 13.05 *Estimated fourth quarter data Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-3 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Monitor Design Value (μg/m3) 99-01 00-02 01-03 02-04 03-05 04-06 05-07 Hickory Nonattainment Area Hickory AIRS ID #37-035-0004 Catawba County Triad Nonattainment Area Lexington AIRS ID #37-057-0002 Davidson County Mendenhall AIRS ID #37-081-0013 Guilford County 13.7 13.8 14.0* 13.7* Note: Bolded values represent violations of the annual fine particulate matter standard. *Estimated fourth quarter 2006 data used in Design Value calculation. The most recent three years of PM2.5 monitoring data (2006-2008) for both the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas demonstrate compliance with the annual fine particulate matter NAAQS. Table 2-3 is a summary of the annual averages for the monitors located in the nonattainment areas for 2006-2008 and their respective design values. The Colfax monitor only has data for 2008 and therefore does not have sufficient data to calculate a design value. However, the 2008 annual average is significantly below the annual PM2.5 standard. Therefore, the NCDAQ is confident the area is in compliance of the NAAQS. The 2008 PM2.5 monitoring data for both the Hickory and the Triad areas have been fully quality assured and were officially submitted to the USEPA on May 9, 2009. As noted in the previous section, the fourth quarter data for 2006 at the Mendenhall monitoring site is incomplete. After an extensive analysis, the NCDAQ is confident that the Mendenhall monitor is not in violation of the PM2.5 NAAQS (see Appendix D). It should be noted that the Mendenhall monitor has never violated the annual PM2.5 NAAQS in the history of its operation. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-4 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Monitor Year PM2.5 Annual Average (μg/m3) Design Value (μg/m3) 2006-2008 Hickory Nonattainment Area Hickory AIRS ID #37-035-0004 Catawba County 2006 15.17 2007 14.54 14.2 2008 12.85 Triad Nonattainment Area Lexington AIRS ID #37-057-0002 Davidson County 2006 15.13 2007 14.64 14.5 2008 13.66 Mendenhall AIRS ID #37-081-0013 Guilford County 2006 14.06* 2007 13.05 12.9* 2008 11.45 Colfax AIRS ID #37-081-0141 Guilford County 2006 N/A 2007 N/A N/A 2008 12.21 *Estimated fourth quarter 2006 data used in Design Value calculation. There are several State and Federal measures that have been enacted in recent years that are resulting in permanent emissions reductions. Most of these emission reductions are due to regulations and thus are enforceable. However, a few measures are non-regulatory but will still result in emission reductions. A list of those measures that contributed to the permanent emission reductions are listed below and are more fully described in Section 3.2. The federal measures that have been implemented include: • Tier 2 vehicle standards: In addition to NOx controls, the Tier 2 rule also reduced the sulfur content of gasoline to 30 parts per million (ppm) starting in January of 2006. Most gasoline sold in North Carolina prior to January 2006 had a sulfur content of about 300 ppm. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. • Heavy-duty gasoline and diesel highway vehicle standards: Second phase of standards and testing procedures, which began in 2007, will reduce particulate matter from heavy-duty highway engines, and will also reduce highway diesel fuel sulfur content to 15 ppm since the sulfur damages emission control devices. The total • • • • • • • • • • Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-7 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Year Annual SO2 Emissions (Tons) Annual NOx Emissions (Tons) 2002 462,993 145,706 2003 462,041 135,879 2004 472,320 124,079 2005 500,936 114,300 2006 462,143 108,584 2007 370,827 64,770 2008* 227,030 61,669 *Data from 2008 is considered preliminary. As mentioned in Section 1.1, PM2.5 is composed of many species from varying sources. Figure 2-2 presents the North Carolina statewide averaged PM2.5 speciation data from the speciation trends network (STN) monitors for the year 2004. The figure presents sulfates and organic carbons as the main contributors to PM2.5, each with 29% of the total PM2.5 mass. The “other” portion of the PM2.5 that accounts for 17% of the mass can be attributed to water, sea salts, and other trace materials captured with the STN monitors. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-8 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Organic carbon is predominately attributed to biogenic emission sources and sulfate is associated with SO2 emissions. When evaluated across North Carolina and also throughout both nonattainment areas and surrounding regions, the SO2 is primarily from the point source sector. For this reason, reductions in SO2 emissions will provide the greatest reductions in PM2.5 ambient concentrations. Figure 2-3 displays the location of the major power plants located near the PM2.5 nonattainment areas. Table 2-5 presents the SO2 emissions from these nine power plants as reported from the USEPA acid rain database. It is clearly demonstrated that the annual emissions from these facilities have significantly decreased since 2005, with over 250,000 tons of SO2 emission reduction in the 2008 compared to 2005. This is over a 50% reduction in utility SO2 emissions that are permanent and enforceable. These reductions have taken place beginning in 2006, which includes the first year of the attaining 3-year design value. Since the final compliance date for the NCCSA SO2 emissions caps is 2013, future design values are expected to continue to decline below the 2006-2008 attaining design values. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 2-9 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Facility County 2005 2006 2007 2008 Belews Creek Rockingham 96,813 95,290 86,388 17,252 Buck Rowan 9,582 9,560 10,261 7,353 Cliffside Rutherford 28,209 29,128 27,566 29,421 Dan River Stokes 4,248 7,068 7,672 6,687 Allen Gaston 45,424 45,395 50,550 49,578 Marshall Catawba 100,540 85,050 24,754 6,174 Mayo Person 27,076 24,499 22,811 20,072 Riverbend Gaston 13,964 15,148 15,907 15,942 Roxboro Person 101,444 94,627 65,247 24,436 Total 427,301 405,765 311,155 176,914 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The State's plan for maintaining compliance with the ambient air quality standard for annual fine particulate matter in the Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point nonattainment areas consists of three major parts: a foundation control program, a maintenance demonstration, and a contingency plan. The foundation control program consists of the current Federal and State control measures already in effect, as well as the future benefits of the federal cleaner engine programs, and low sulfur gasoline and low sulfur diesel fuel programs. Additionally, although the federal Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) has been remanded back to the USEPA, a replacement rule is expected to be promulgated in 2011. This new rule is expected to be as stringent as CAIR. The NCDAQ has implemented programs that will remain enforceable and are hereby submitted as the plan to ensure that maintenance of the annual fine particulate matter standard will continue. Sources are prohibited from reducing emission controls (anti-backsliding) following the redesignation of the area unless such a change is first approved by the USEPA as a revision to the North Carolina SIP that is consistent with Section 110(l) of the Clean Air Act. For the maintenance demonstration, the base year of 2008 was chosen since it is a year that falls within the attaining design value period of 2006-2008 and some emissions inventory data was already developed for this year. The interim years chosen were: 2011, 2014, and 2017 since the USEPA recommends three-year increments for interim years. The final year of the maintenance demonstration is 2021, since the CAA requires maintenance for at least ten years after redesignation. The maintenance demonstration consists of a comparison between the 2008 baseline emissions inventory and the projected emissions inventories (for 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021), which consider economic and population growth as well as expected controls. The comparison shows that the total emissions in each of the interim years and the final year will be lower than in the base year, which demonstrates maintenance of the annual PM2.5 standard. The reductions in emissions are due to the foundation control programs outlined below. The North Carolina contingency plan involves tracking and triggering mechanisms to determine when contingency measures are needed and a process of implementing appropriate control measures. The primary trigger of the contingency plan will be a violation of the ambient air quality standard for annual PM2.5. The secondary trigger will be a monitored air quality pattern that suggests an actual annual PM2.5 NAAQS violation may be imminent, such as repeated exceedances of the daily fine particulate matter standard. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-2 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The main element of the maintenance plan is the foundation control program. The foundation control program contains the controls necessary to maintain the ambient air quality standards. The purpose of the foundation control program is to prevent the ambient air quality standards from being violated and thereby eliminate the need for more costly controls being imposed on industry and the general public. Each component of the State's foundation control program is essential in demonstrating maintenance of the air quality standards. The foundation control program consists of Federal and State measures. The Federal measures include the cleaner fuel programs and the federal highway motor vehicle and off-road equipment control program and controls on power plants. State measures include the I/M program, the NOx SIP Call rule, the NCCSA, and open burning and idle reduction regulations. The state measures also include additional programs that support maintenance of the PM2.5 standard. Most of these emission reductions are due to regulations and thus are enforceable. However, a few measures are non-regulatory but will still result in emission reductions. All of these programs have already been implemented or are in the process of being implemented. Tier 2 Vehicle Standards Federal Tier 2 vehicle standards require all passenger vehicles in a manufacturer’s fleet, including light-duty trucks and Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs), to meet an average standard of 0.07 grams of NOx per mile. Implementation began in 2004, with full compliance required by 2007. The Tier 2 standards also cover passenger vehicles over 8,500 pounds gross vehicle weight rating (the larger pickup trucks and SUVs), which are not covered by the Tier 1 regulations. For these vehicles, the standards were phased in beginning in 2008, with full compliance required by 2009. The new standards require vehicles to be 77% to 95% cleaner. The Tier 2 rule also reduced the sulfur content of gasoline to 30 ppm starting in January of 2006. Most gasoline sold in North Carolina prior to January 2006 had a sulfur content of about 300 ppm. Sulfur occurs naturally in gasoline and interferes with the operation of catalytic converters on vehicles, which results in higher NOx emissions. Lower-sulfur gasoline is necessary to achieve the Tier 2 vehicle emission standards. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-3 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Heavy-Duty Gasoline and Diesel Highway Vehicles Standards The USEPA standards designed to reduce NOx and VOC emissions from heavy-duty gasoline and diesel highway vehicles began to take effect in 2004. The second phase of the standards and testing procedures began in 2007 and will reduce particulate matter from heavy-duty highway engines, and reduces highway diesel fuel sulfur content to 15 ppm since the sulfur damages emission control devices. The total program is expected to achieve a 90% reduction in PM emissions and a 95% reduction in NOx emissions for the new engines using low sulfur diesel, compared to engines using higher-content sulfur diesel. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. Large Nonroad Diesel Engines Rule In May 2004, the USEPA promulgated new rules for large nonroad diesel engines, such as those used in construction, agricultural, and industrial equipment, to be phased in between 2008 and 2014. The nonroad diesel rules also reduce the allowable sulfur in nonroad diesel fuel by over 99%. Prior to the fuel standard change, nonroad diesel fuel averaged about 3,400 ppm sulfur. The rule limits nonroad diesel sulfur content to 500 ppm by 2006 and 15 ppm by 2010. The combined engine and fuel rules is expected to reduce NOx and PM emissions from large nonroad diesel engines by over 90%, compared to current nonroad engines using higher-content sulfur diesel. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. Nonroad Spark-Ignition Engines and Recreational Engines Standard The nonroad spark-ignition and recreational engine standards, effective in July 2003, regulates NOx, hydrocarbons (HC) and CO for groups of previously unregulated nonroad engines. These engine standards apply to all new engines sold in the United States and imported after these standards began and applies to large spark-ignition engines (forklifts and airport ground service equipment), recreational vehicles (off-highway motorcycles and all-terrain-vehicles), and recreational marine diesel engines. The regulation varies based upon the type of engine or vehicle. The large spark-ignition engines contribute to ozone formation and ambient CO and PM levels in urban areas. Tier 1 of this standard was implemented in 2004 and Tier 2 started in 2007. Like the large spark-ignition, recreational vehicles contribute to ozone formation and ambient CO and PM levels. For the off-highway motorcycles and all-terrain-vehicles, the exhaust emissions standard was phased-in. Fifty percent of model year 2006 engines had to meet the standard and for model years 2007 and later, all engines must meet the standard. Recreational marine diesel engines over 37 kilowatts are used in yachts, cruisers, and other types of pleasure craft. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-4 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Recreational marine engines contribute to ozone formation and PM levels, especially in marinas. Depending on the size of the engine, the standard began phasing-in in 2006. When all of the nonroad spark-ignition and recreational engine standards are fully implemented, an overall 72% reduction in HC, 80% reduction in NOx, and 56% reduction in CO emissions are expected by 2020. These controls will help reduce ambient concentrations of ozone, CO, and PM2.5. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. NOx SIP Call in Surrounding States In October 1998, the USEPA made a finding of significant contribution of NOx emissions from certain states and published a rule that set ozone season (May to September) NOx budgets for the purpose of reducing regional transport of ozone (63 FR 57356). This rule, referred to as the NOx SIP Call, required ozone season controls to be put on utility and industrial boilers, as well as internal combustion engines, in 22 states in the Eastern United States. A NOx emissions budget was set for each state and the states were required to develop rules that would assure that each state met its budget. A NOx trading program was established, allowing sources to buy credits to meet their NOx budget as opposed to actually installing controls. The emission budgets were to be met by the beginning of 2004. Even with the trading program, the amount of ozone season NOx emissions has decreased significantly in and around North Carolina. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. Clean Air Interstate Rule On May 12, 2005, the USEPA promulgated the “Rule To Reduce Interstate Transport of Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone (Clean Air Interstate Rule); Revisions to Acid Rain Program; Revisions to the NOx SIP Call”, referred to as CAIR. This rule established the requirement for States to adopt rules limiting the emissions of NOx and SO2 and a model rule for the states to use in developing their rules. The purpose of the CAIR is to reduce interstate transport of precursors of fine particulate and ozone. This rule provides annual state caps for NOx and SO2 for large fossil-fuel-fired electric generating units in two phases, with the Phase I caps for NOx and SO2 starting in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Phase II caps become effective in 2015. The USEPA is allowing the caps to be met through a cap and trade program if a state so chooses to participate in the program. These emission reductions are federally enforceable. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Due to court challenges of CAIR in 2008, the USEPA will be making changes to the program by 2011. However, the existing CAIR rules will remain in place until the USEPA promulgates changes to the program. Additionally, the revisions to the CAIR program are expected to be as stringent as the existing program. North Carolina has adopted a number of regulations, legislation, and voluntary programs to address pollution issues across the State. These are summarized below. Clean Air Bill The 1999 Clean Air Bill expanded the vehicle emissions I/M program in North Carolina from 9 counties to 48 counties, between July 1, 2002 through January 1, 2006 (Figure 3-1). Vehicles are tested using the onboard diagnostic system (OBDII), an improved method of testing, which ensures proper emission system operation for vehicles and light trucks during their lifetime by monitoring emission-related components and systems for malfunction and/or deterioration. An important aspect of OBDII is its ability to notify the driver of malfunction and/or deterioration by illuminating the "check engine light". If the vehicle is taken to a repair shop in a timely fashion, it can be properly repaired before any significant and prolonged emission increase occurs. The previously used tailpipe test (i.e., idle test) did not measure NOx emissions; it only tested for VOC and CO emissions. By utilizing the OBDII test method, the NOx emissions as well as other pollutants from motor vehicles are reduced. The effective dates for the counties in the PM2.5 nonattainment area are listed below. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-8 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 the Triad area are subject to this rule Alamance Caswell Davidson Davie Forsyth Guilford Randolph Rockingham and Stokes. The open burning regulation reduces PM, NOx, SO2, VOC, and CO emissions and are state enforceable. The estimated emission reductions through the attainment and maintenance period are presented in Table 3-3. For a full explanation of how these emission reductions were estimated, please refer to Appendix C.2, the Area Source Emissions Inventory Documentation. Hickory Area Catawba 56 66 76 85 100 Triad Area Davidson 94 109 126 141 167 Guilford 79 91 105 119 140 Triad Total 173 200 231 260 307 Hickory Area Catawba 10 11 12 14 17 Triad Area Davidson 16 18 21 23 28 Guilford 13 15 17 20 23 Triad Total 29 33 38 43 51 Hickory Area Catawba 326 380 438 493 581 Triad Area Davidson 541 632 729 819 965 Guilford 454 530 612 688 809 Triad Total 995 1162 1341 1507 1774 Idle Reduction Regulation The EMC adopted the Heavy-Duty Vehicle Idling Restrictions rule to reduce unnecessary idling of heavy-duty trucks on July 9, 2009. This rule has received several letters of objection and will undergo a legislative review in the Spring of 2010 before becoming effective. Once in effect, Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-9 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 this rule will be state enforceable and generally prevent any person who operates a heavy-duty vehicle to cause, let, permit, suffer or allow idling for a period of time in excess of 5 consecutive minutes in any 60 minute period. The expected emissions from this regulation were not included in the mobile source emissions estimated for this maintenance plan because of the uncertainty of the regulations. Air Awareness Program The North Carolina Air Awareness Program is a public outreach and education program of the NCDAQ. The goal of the program is to reduce air pollution though voluntary actions by individuals and organizations. The program seeks to educate individuals about (1) the sources of air pollution; (2) the health effects of air pollution and how these effects can be mitigated by modification of outdoor activities on air quality action days; and (3) simple "action tips", such as carpooling, vehicle maintenance, and energy conservation, that reduce individual contributions to air pollution. One of the major program components is the year round daily air quality forecast. The NCDAQ produces a daily fine particulate matter forecasts and corresponding air quality index for the Hickory forecast area, while the Forsyth County Environmental Affairs Department provides daily fine particulate matter forecasts and the corresponding air quality index for the Triad region. Transportation Conformity The NCDAQ works closely with the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) and local transportation agencies to assure that Transportation Improvement Programs (TIPs) in the nonattainment areas are consistent with and conform to the State's air quality program, including the SIP, and meet the Federal requirements on transportation conformity. This conformity review is performed for all federally funded and all other major projects contained in TIPs, regardless of source of funding. Technical analysis of transportation plans, programs, and projects for conformity are done cooperatively by the Statewide Planning Branch of the NCDOT and the NCDAQ. In the event that the NCDAQ disagrees with the NCDOT on a conformity determination or other conformity related issue, the NCDAQ and the NCDOT will present the issue to the Governor for resolution. The public and interested parties are given an early and reasonable opportunity to comment on transportation plans, programs, projects and proposed conformity determinations in accordance with procedures adopted by metropolitan planning organizations pursuant to the requirements of • • Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-18 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 will be a rolling 12 quarter average that exceeds the annual PM2.5 NAAQS. The tertiary trigger will be a monitored annual average that exceeds the annual PM2.5 NAAQS. Upon either the primary or secondary triggers being activated, the NCDAQ will commence analyses to determine what additional measures, if any, will be necessary to attain or maintain the annual PM2.5 standard. If activation of either the primary or secondary triggers occurs, this plan provides a regulatory adoption process for revising emission control strategies. Activation of the tertiary trigger will result in an analysis to understand the cause of the exceedance and to identify voluntary measures if needed. In addition, there will be a tracking mechanism that requires a comparison of the actual emissions inventory submitted under the Federal Consolidated Emissions Reporting Rule (CERR) and Air Emissions Reporting Rule (AERR) to the projected inventory, and to the attainment year inventory contained in this maintenance plan. The CERR and AERR reporting years coincide with the baseline, interim and final years of the emission inventory in this maintenance demonstration. The primary trigger of the contingency plan will be a violation of the annual PM2.5 standard, or when the three-year average of the average annual ambient concentration is greater than 15.0 μg/m3 at any monitor in the PM2.5 nonattainment areas. The trigger date will be 60 days from the date that the State observes an annual average concentration that, when averaged with the two previous annual average PM2.5 concentrations, would result in a three-year average greater than 15.0 μg/m3. The secondary trigger will apply where no actual violation of the annual PM2.5 standard has occurred, but where the State finds that the rolling 12-quarter average monitored PM2.5 levels exceed the PM2.5 NAAQS. A pattern will be deemed to exist when the average PM2.5 concentrations of any 12 consecutive quarters is greater than 15.0 μg/m3 at any monitor within the PM2.5 nonattainment areas. The trigger date will be 60 days from the date that the State observes a rolling 12-quarter average greater than 15.0 μg/m3 at any monitor. Similarly, the tertiary trigger will not be an actual violation of the annual PM2.5 standard. This trigger will be a first alert as to a potential air quality problem on the horizon. The trigger will be activated when a monitor in either of the PM2.5 nonattainment areas has an annual average greater than 15.0 μg/m3, starting the first year after the maintenance plan has been approved. The trigger date will be 60 days from the date that the State observes an annual average greater than 15.0 μg/m3 at any monitor. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-19 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 There are a number of programs that are still being implemented in North Carolina that will continue to reduce fine particulate matter and its precursors. The NCCSA has a final compliance year of 2013 by which the public utilities in North Carolina must meet their SO2 emissions caps. It is estimated that an additional 133,320 tons of SO2 will be reduced from the 2008 emission levels for the sources subject to the NCCSA. Additionally, the NCDAQ is still awarding grants for retrofits, replacement or repowering of diesel engines for on-road and nonroad mobile sources. Since it is possible that the speciation composition of fine particulate matter may change in the future years, it is important that the NCDAQ identify the pollutant or pollutants for which further reductions are needed in order to maintain the annual PM2.5 NAAQS. Once the primary or secondary trigger is activated, the Planning Section of the NCDAQ shall commence analyses including trajectory analyses of high PM2.5 days, and emissions inventory assessment to determine those emission control measures that will be required for attaining or maintaining the annual PM2.5 standard. Additionally, the PM2.5 speciation data from the STN monitors will be reviewed to determine which species are the more predominant components for the period where a violation or exceedance of the NAAQS was observed. If it is determined that the cause of the violation or exceedance of the PM2.5 NAAQS is due to sources outside of North Carolina, then the NCDAQ will commence discussion with regulatory authorities responsible for upwind sources to determine additional actions to be implemented. The State of North Carolina has already filed a Section 126 petition in order to ensure that neighboring states reduce their utility emissions in a timely manner. As a result of the recent court decision in the State of North Carolina vs. Tennessee Valley Authority, additional emissions reductions are anticipated for upwind TVA sources. If it is determined that the violation or exceedance occurred due to sources within North Carolina, then by November 1 of the year following the year in which the primary or secondary trigger has been activated, North Carolina will complete sufficient analyses to begin adoption of necessary rules for ensuring attainment and maintenance of the annual PM2.5 NAAQS. If the rules are still needed, then rules would become State effective by the following July 1, unless legislative review is required. Each adopted rule will include a schedule that will require compliance with the rule no later than 2 years after adoption of the rule. The measures that will be considered for adoption upon a trigger of the contingency plan include: Reasonably Available Control Technology on stationary sources in the PM2.5 nonattainment area counties, diesel inspection and maintenance program, implementation of Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 3-20 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 diesel retrofit programs, including incentives for performing retrofits, and additional controls in upwind areas. Once the tertiary trigger is activated, the Planning Section of the NCDAQ shall commence analyses including meteorological evaluation, trajectory analyses of high PM2.5 days, and emissions inventory assessment to understand why an annual exceedance of the standard has occurred. Once the analyses are completed, the NCDAQ will work with the local air awareness program and develop an outreach plan to identify any additional voluntary measures that can be implemented. NCDAQ will work with the local air awareness coordinator to implement the plan for the following summer. In addition to the measures listed above, emissions inventory comparisons will be carried out. The large stationary sources are required to submit an emissions inventory annually to the NCDAQ. The NCDAQ will commit to review these emissions inventories to determine if an unexpected growth in NOx, SO2 or primary particulate matter emissions in the PM2.5 nonattainment areas may endanger the maintenance of the annual PM2.5 standard. Additionally, as new VMT data is provided by the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), the NCDAQ commits to review this data and determine if any unexpected growth in VMT may endanger the maintenance of the annual PM2.5 standard. Additionally, under the CERR and AERR the NCDAQ is required to develop a comprehensive, annual, statewide emissions inventory every three years and is due twelve to eighteen months after the completion of the inventory year. The CERR and AERR inventory years coincide with the baseline, interim and final years of the maintenance plan. Therefore, the NCDAQ commits to compare these inventories as they are developed with the maintenance plan to determine if additional steps are necessary for continued maintenance of the annual PM2.5 standard in this area. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The purpose of transportation conformity is to ensure that Federal transportation actions occurring in nonattainment and maintenance areas do not hinder the area from attaining and maintaining the annual fine particulate matter standard. This means that the level of emissions estimated by the NCDOT or the metropolitan planning organizations for the TIP and Long Range Transportation Plan must not exceed the motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEBs) as defined in this maintenance plan. 40 CFR 93.119(f)(7) through (10) identifies the pollutants for PM2.5 that regional emissions analysis needs to be performed for transportation conformity purposes. These parts of the rule are listed below: Only primary, or direct PM2.5, tailpipe emissions must be considered for transportation conformity regional emissions analysis. The other precursor pollutants and reentrained road dust only need to be considered if the State air agency and/or the USEPA have deemed the pollutant as a significant contributor to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem. The following sections discuss Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-2 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 the significance of the precursor pollutants and reentrained road dust to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem. The PM2.5 precursor NOx is presumed to be a significant contributor to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem by the USEPA. The NCDAQ has determined that NOx is a relatively minor contributor to the PM2.5 concentrations in North Carolina. However, the NCDAQ is not asserting that NOx is an insignificant precursor for the 1997 PM2.5 standard. Therefore, the NCDAQ will establish county level MVEBs for NOx for all three PM2.5 nonattainment counties. For the purpose of this attainment demonstration, VOC and ammonia are presumed to be insignificant contributors to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem by the USEPA. The NCDAQ agrees with the USEPA that both VOC and ammonia are insignificant contributors to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem in North Carolina. Since these precursors have been deemed insignificant, no MVEBs are being established for VOC or ammonia. An affirmative insignificance finding from the USEPA only relieves the transportation partners from a regional emissions analysis for PM2.5 emissions for these areas and does not relieve them of the other transportation conformity requirements. The transportation partners will need to note the VOC and Ammonia insignificance finding (if found adequate and approved by the USEPA) in future conformity determinations. The majority of the roads in North Carolina are paved so there is minimum road dust due to the paved roads. The factor to calculate reentrained road dust on paved roads is very small. What dust is generated, has been shown in the literature, , to be inconsequential. This fact is affirmed by the small crustal component in the PM2.5 speciated data which measures only 3% at Hickory monitoring site (Catawba County) in 2002 and only 2% at Lexington monitoring site (Davidson County) in 2004 (see Figure 4-1 below). Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-3 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Since the reentrained road dust is not a significant contributor to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem, the NCDAQ will not be establishing MVEBs for this source category. An affirmative insignificance finding from the USEPA only relieves the transportation partners from a regional emissions analysis for reentrained road dust emissions for these areas and does not relieve them of the other transportation conformity requirements. The transportation partners will need to note the reentrained road dust insignificance finding (if found adequate and approved by the USEPA) in future conformity determinations. The PM2.5 precursor SO2 could not be deemed insignificant to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem. However, the NCDAQ has determined that SO2 emitted by the mobile source sector is insignificant. The USEPA in its Federal Register notice for PM2.5 does not address the mobile sector in its listing of significant emissions. North Carolina agrees with the following statements addressing SO2 from on-road mobile emissions as published in the May 6, 2005, Federal Register, (70 FR 24283): Nitrate 6% Sulfate 30% Ammonium 10% Organic carbon 32% Elemental carbon 4% Crustal component 3% Other 15% Nitrate 7% Sulfate 29% Ammonium 10% Organic carbon 28% Elemental carbon 4% Crustal component 2% Other 20% Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-4 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Although sulfate is a significant component to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem in North Carolina, the majority of the SO2 emissions in 2009 come from the stationary point source sector (see Figure 4-2). The mobile source sector only contributes one half of one percent (0.5 %) of the 2009 statewide SO2 emissions. This is consistent with what the USEPA stated above. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Since the mobile source SO2 contribution is insignificant, the NCDAQ is not establishing MVEBs for this precursor. An affirmative insignificance finding from the USEPA only relieves the transportation partners from a regional emissions analysis for SO2 emissions for these areas and does not relieve them of the other transportation conformity requirements. The transportation partners will need to note the SO2 insignificance finding (if found adequate and approved by the USEPA) in future conformity determinations. 40 CFR 93.109(k) in the Transportation Conformity Rule Amendments for the new 8-hour ozone and fine particulate matter NAAQSs addresses areas with insignificant motor vehicle emissions as follows, The rule suggests that such a finding would be based on a number of factors, including the percentage of motor vehicle emissions in the context of the total SIP inventory, the current state of air quality as determined by monitoring data for that NAAQS, the absence of SIP motor vehicle control measures, and historical trends and future projections of the growth of motor vehicle emissions. Although there is an inspection and maintenance program in the nonattainment areas, this control measure does not control primary PM2.5, but rather is in place to reduce the ozone precursors. The NCDAQ believes strongly that the primary PM2.5 emissions from mobile sources do not contribute significantly to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem. However, the USEPA has indicated they will not approve a SIP that does not set MVEBs for primary PM2.5 for the Triad nonattainment area. Therefore, the NCDAQ will establish county level MVEBs for primary PM2.5 for the Triad area. The sections that follow discuss the insignificance of PM2.5 emissions. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-6 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The attainment modeling for the Hickory and the Triad PM2.5 nonattainment areas was submitted to the USEPA on August 21, 2009. In conjunction with that modeling the NCDAQ examined the sources of PM2.5 emissions and their contribution to PM2.5 formation in the nonattainment counties. This was accomplished using the 2009 emissions inventories developed for the attainment demonstration modeling. Figure 4-3 provides the percent contributions from point, area, nonroad mobile and on-road mobile source sectors for the Hickory nonattainment area. The 2009 on-road mobile PM2.5 emissions contributed only 1.6% of the total PM2.5 emissions for the Hickory area. Therefore, it is demonstrated that the PM2.5 emissions compared to the total PM2.5 emissions are insignificant. It should be noted that the mobile source PM2.5 emissions slightly decrease from 2002 to 2009 despite an increase in VMT. The NCDAQ performed sensitivity modeling in order to address the challenge of Section 93.109(k) in the Transportation Conformity Rule Amendments, The sensitivity modeling showed that with a doubling of the mobile source PM2.5 emissions there was no change in the air quality modeling results. This sensitivity modeling is discussed in more detail in Appendix C.3. Based on the information discussed above, the NCDAQ believes that the on-road mobile PM2.5 emissions are insignificant contributors to the PM2.5 nonattainment problem. Emission estimates indicate that the on-road mobile PM2.5 emissions are a small percentage of the total PM2.5 emissions in the Hickory nonattainment area. On-road mobile PM2.5 emissions are projected to 1.59% 68.70% 1.49% 28.22% Mobile Point Area Nonroad Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 4-7 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 decrease into the future notwithstanding VMT increases. Air quality modeling sensitivities show that doubling the mobile source PM2.5 emissions has very little effect on the future design values. The NCDAQ considers it unreasonable to expect that the Hickory PM2.5 nonattainment area will experience enough motor vehicle PM2.5 emissions growth for a future PM2.5 violation to occur due to mobile sources. Due to above analysis and agreement from the USEPA, budgets for direct PM2.5 will not be set for the Hickory nonattainment area. An affirmative insignificance finding from the USEPA only relieves the transportation partners from a regional emissions analysis for PM2.5 emissions for this area and does not relieve them of the other transportation conformity requirements. The transportation partners will need to note the PM2.5 insignificance finding (if found adequate and approved by the USEPA) in future conformity determinations. As stated in Section 3.3.4, a safety margin is the difference between the attainment level of emissions from all source categories (i.e., point, area, on-road mobile and nonroad mobile) and the projected level of emissions from all source categories. The safety margins for both the Hickory and Triad areas are listed in Table 3-21 and 3-22. The State may choose to allocate some of the safety margin to the MVEB, for transportation conformity purposes, so long as the total level of emissions from all source categories remains below the attainment level of emissions. The NCDAQ has decided to allocate a portion of the safety margin to the MVEB to allow for unanticipated growth in VMT, changes to vehicle mix assumptions, etc. that will influence the emission estimations. Since NOx is a precursor to ozone, the NCDAQ has decided to limit the amount of the safety margin allocated to the MVEBs. For 2011 and 2021, the NCDAQ has added an additional 10% and 20%, respectively, to the NOx MVEBs. This is consistent with how the NCDAQ has handled NOX MVEBs in ozone maintenance plans. Since the NCDAQ does not believe that mobile source PM2.5 emissions are a significant contributor to PM2.5 nonattainment, the 2011 and 2021 MVEBs for the Triad nonattainment area will be set at the 2008 mobile source PM2.5 emission levels. As part of the consultation process on setting MVEBs, the NCDAQ sent out a request for comment on setting the geographic extent of the MVEBs to all of the transportation partners. A Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 5-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 For an area to be redesignated and have an approved maintenance plan, the SIP must include evidence of compliance with the rules relied on to show maintenance of the standard. This section provides the evidence of compliance with such rules for the Hickory and Triad PM2.5 nonattainment area. The following rules regulating emissions of SO2 and/or NOx in PM2.5 nonattainment area counties have been approved, or have been submitted with a request to be approved, as part of the SIP: 15A NCAC 2D .0530, Prevention of Significant Deterioration 15A NCAC 2D .1000, Motor Vehicle Emission Control Standards 15A NCAC 2D .1200, Control and Emissions from Incinerators 15A NCAC 2D .1409(b), Stationary Internal Combustion Engines 15A NCAC 2D .1416 - .1423, NOx SIP rules 15A NCAC 2D .1600, General Conformity 15A NCAC 2D .1900, Open Burning 15A NCAC 2D .2000, Transportation Conformity 15A NCAC 2D .2400 Clean Air Interstate Rules Section 15A NCAC 2D .1000 also regulates emissions from motor vehicles in the counties near the Hickory and Triad nonattainment area and requires the use of the on board diagnostic system, which will indicate NOx emissions as well as other pollutants. Section 15A NCAC 2D .1200 regulates the controls and emissions from incinerators. Part of this rule has been submitted as part of the SIP, while .1205, .1206 and .1210 are part of the CAA Section 111(d) plans. Two rules are conformity related, 15A NCAC 2D .1600 and .2000. General conformity related projects are covered under Section .1600, while transportation conformity related projects are covered under Section .2000. Although neither of these rules require reduction in emissions, they do ensure that federal actions do not hinder attainment or maintenance of the NAAQS. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 5-2 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 North Carolina has adopted an open burning rule, 15A NCAC 2D .1900, which prohibits open burning of vegetative material during Air Quality Action Days of Code Orange or higher in forecasted areas of the State. Particle pollution forecasts are issued for the Hickory and Triad areas year-round; therefore this area is covered by this rule. Section 15A NCAC 2D .2400 regulates nitrogen oxide emissions from electric generating units with a nameplate capacity of 25 megawatts or more producing electricity for sale. Section 15A NCAC 2D .2400 also covers industrial boilers that are covered under the NOx SIP Call rules. This Section replaces the NOx SIP Call rules beginning January 1, 2009. Another important set of rules that may result in control of some particulates that are air toxics in North Carolina in these counties is Section 15A NCAC 2D .1100, Control of Toxic Air Pollutants. These rules, however, have not been submitted to the USEPA to be approved as part of the SIP. There are two other rules that control emissions of some particulates in these areas. They are 15A NCAC 2D .0524, New Source Performance Standards. Also, rule 2D.1111, Maximum Achievable Control Technology applies to control of emissions of HAP, some of which are particulates. They are not part of the SIP, but the USEPA has delegated the State enforcement authority for standards that have been adopted by the State. (The standards adopted by the State are state-enforceable regardless of the USEPA delegation.) Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 6-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 Section 107(d)(3)(E)(v) of the CAA requires that the provisions of Section 110 and Part D of the Act be met within the area to be redesignated. This means that North Carolina must meet all requirements, if any, that had come due as of the date of the redesignation request. The USEPA in its latest guidance on meeting redesignation requirements as contained in a memorandum from John Calcagni, Director, Air Quality Management Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards to the USEPA Regional Offices dated September 4, 1992, (See Appendix A), states that "For the purposes of redesignation, a State must meet all requirements of Section 110 and Part D that were applicable prior to submittal of the complete redesignation request. When evaluating a redesignation request, Regions should not consider whether the State has met requirements that come due under the Act after submittal of a complete redesignation request." Monitoring is one of the requirements of Section 110. The NCDAQ commits to continue operating the current fine particulate matter monitors in the Hickory and Triad nonattainment areas, providing sufficient funding is available for continued operation. Any monitor shutdowns or relocations will only be made with the approval of the USEPA. No plans are underway to discontinue operation, relocation or otherwise affect the integrity of the ambient monitoring network in place. The current monitors are operated consistent with 40 CFR Part 58 and any changes will only be made if they are consistent with 40 CFR Part 58. NCDAQ believes that North Carolina has met all of the requirements of Section 110 and Part D. Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 7-1 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 18, 2009 The most recent three years of fine particulate matter monitoring data for the both the Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point (Triad) nonattainment areas demonstrate compliance with the NAAQS for annual fine particulate matter. Since the 1990’s, there have been major programs enacted in North Carolina that have led to significant actual, enforceable emissions reductions, which have led to improvements in the air quality in both the Hickory and Triad areas. Additionally, the maintenance plan demonstrates that the projected emissions inventories for 2021, the final year of the maintenance plan and ten years beyond the expected redesignation year, as well as the interim years, are all less than the base year emissions inventory. Therefore, maintenance of the annual fine particulate matter NAAQS has also been demonstrated. This redesignation demonstration and maintenance plan has been prepared to meet the requirements of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. Point Source Emission Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Errata to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 10 Appendix C.1 December 22, 2010 Point Source Emission Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Errata to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 11 Appendix C.1 December 22, 2010 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 12 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 13 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 14 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 13310 6976 6189 10549 6975 6187 10548 6975 6186 10548 6973 6184 10548 6971 6183 Point Source Emission Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Errata to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 15 Appendix C.1 December 22, 2010 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 16 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 17 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 18 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 19 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 20 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 21 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 22 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 23 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 24 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 25 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Point Source Emissions Inventory Documentation Hickory and Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point Annual-PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 26 Appendix C.1 December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 3 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 4 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 5 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 6 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 7 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 8 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 9 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 10 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 11 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 12 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 13 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 14 Appendix E December 18, 2009 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 17 Appendix E December 22, 2010 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 18 Appendix E December 22, 2010 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 19 Appendix E December 22, 2010 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 20 Appendix E December 22, 2010 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 21 Appendix E December 22, 2010 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 22 Appendix E December 22, 2010 Public Notice Report, Comments Received, and Responses Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Annual PM2.5 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan 23 Appendix E December 22, 2010 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation i Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE ............................................................................................. 1 2.0 OVERALL METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................ 1 2.1 Emission Estimation Approach ........................................................................................... 1 3.0 QUALITY ASSURANCE MEASURES .................................................................................. 2 4.0 DISCUSSION OF ON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES .............................................................. 3 4.1 Introduction and Scope ........................................................................................................ 3 4.2 MOVES Input Assumptions ................................................................................................ 4 4.2.1 Speed Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 4 4.2.2 Vehicle Age Distribution ............................................................................................. 10 4.2.3 Vehicle Mix Assumptions ............................................................................................ 11 4.2.4 Disaggregating State Specific Information .................................................................. 12 4.2.5 Vehicles/Equipment: On-Road Vehicle Equipment ................................................... 16 4.2.6 Road Type ................................................................................................................... 17 4.2.7 Pollutants and Processes ............................................................................................. 18 4.2.8 Temperature, Relative Humidity and Barometric Pressure Assumptions ................... 18 4.2.9 Source Type Population .............................................................................................. 18 4.2.10 Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Program Assumptions .................................... 21 4.2.11 Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) Assumptions ................................................................. 21 4.2.12 Diesel Sulfur Content Assumptions ........................................................................... 22 4.2.13 Fuel (Formulation and Supply) ................................................................................. 22 4.3 VMT Assumptions .............................................................................................................. 22 4.4 Estimated Emissions From Mobile Sources ...................................................................... 25 4.5 Motor Vehicle Emissions Budget for Conformity ............................................................. 26 4.5.1 Transportation Conformity .......................................................................................... 26 4.5.2 Pollutants to be Considered ......................................................................................... 26 4.5.3 Safety Margin ............................................................................................................... 33 4.5.4 Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets ................................................................................ 35 5.0 DATA USED ......................................................................................................................... 39 5.1 North Carolina’s Vehicle Mix ........................................................................................... 39 5.1.1 2008 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 39 5.1.2 2011 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 40 5.1.3 2014 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 41 5.1.4 2017 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 42 5.1.5 2021 State Vehicle Mix .............................................................................................. 43 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation ii Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 5.2 Meteorology ........................................................................................................................ 44 5.2.1 Catawba County Temperature and Relative Humidity ................................................ 44 5.2.2 Davidson and Guilford County Temperature and Relative Humidity ......................... 50 Table 4.2.1-1 Modeled Area Speeds for Davidson County (miles/hour) ...................................... 5 Table 4.2.1-2 Rural Area Speeds for Davidson County (miles/hour) ............................................ 5 Table 4.2.1-3 Modeled Area Speeds for Guilford County (miles/hour) ........................................ 6 Table 4.2.1-4 Modeled Area Speeds for Catawba County (miles/hour) ........................................ 6 Table 4.2.1-5 Rural Area Speeds for Catawba County (miles/hour) ............................................. 7 Table 4.2.4-1 Mapping of HPMS data to MOBILE6.2 Categories .............................................. 12 Table 4.2.4-2 Calculation of New 2008 Statewide Rural Interstate Vehicle Mix ....................... 14 Table 4.2.4-3 Calculation of 2008 Statewide Rural Interstate Vehicle Mix ................................ 16 Table 4.3-1 Modeled Vehicle Miles Traveled for Davidson County ........................................... 23 Table 4.3-2 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Davidson County Rural Donut Area ............................. 23 Table 4.3-3 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Guilford County ............................................................ 24 Table 4.3-4 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Catawba County Modeled Portion ................................ 24 Table 4.3-5 Vehicle Miles Traveled for Catawba County Rural Donut Area .............................. 25 Table 4.4-1 Emissions by County and year .................................................................................. 25 Table 4.5.3-1 Safety Margin for Hickory PM2.5 Nonattainment Area ......................................... 34 Table 4.5.3-2 Safety Margin for Triad PM2.5 Nonattainment Area ............................................. 34 Table 4.5.4-1 On-Road Mobile Source PM2.5 Emissions ............................................................ 35 Table 4.5.4-2 On-Road Mobile Source NOx Emissions............................................................... 36 Table 4.5.4-3 Catawba County MVEB ........................................................................................ 36 Table 4.5.4-4 Davidson County MVEB ...................................................................................... 36 Table 4.5.4-5 Guilford County MVEB ........................................................................................ 37 Table 4.5.4-6 County Level PM2.5 MVEB Safety Margin for 2011 and 2021 ............................ 37 Table 4.5.4-7 County Level NOx MVEB Safety Margin for 2011 and 2021 .............................. 37 Table 4.5.4-8 New Safety Margins for the Hickory PM2.5 nonattainment area ........................... 38 Table 4.5.4-9 New Safety Margins for the Triad PM2.5 nonattainment area ............................... 38 Figure 4.5.2-2. North Carolina’s 2009 Statewide SO2 Emissions .............................................. 30 Figure 4.5.2-3. Hickory Area 2009 Primary PM2.5 Emissions ..................................................... 31 Figure 4.5.2-4. Catawba County Hourly PM2.5 Emissions ........................................................... 33 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 1 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 This fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on-road mobile source documentation covers the Hickory PM2.5 nonattainment area (Catawba County) and the Greensboro/Winston Salem/High Point PM2.5 nonattainment area (referred to as the Triad area and consisting of Davidson and Guilford Counties). On-road mobile sources produce nitrogen oxides (NOx), particles less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM2.5), and sulfur dioxide (SO2), along with a host of other pollutants. Emissions of these pollutants are estimated in the mobile source inventory required for the maintenance plan. Mobile sources comprise about 74% of the NOx emissions in the Hickory and Triad fine particulate matter nonattainment areas. The scope of this document covers only the procedures associated with on-road mobile sources. Mobile source emissions are estimated by the methodologies suggested in the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) documents Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations, Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for State Implementation Plan Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other Purposes EPA- 420-B-09-046, December 2009), and Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity EPA-420-B-10-023, April 2010). In December 2009, the USEPA released a new model for mobile sources. MOVES (MOtor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) is a computer program designed by the USEPA to estimate air pollution emissions from mobile sources. MOVES2010 (hereafter referred to as MOVES) replaces the USEPA’s previous emissions model for on-road mobile sources, MOBILE6.2. MOVES is used to estimate exhaust and evaporative emissions as well as brake and tire wear emissions from all types of on-road vehicles. Compared to MOBILE6.2, MOVES incorporates substantial new emissions test data and accounts for changes in vehicle technology and regulations as well as improved understanding of in-use emission levels and the factors that influence them. Also, MOVES has a completely new database-centered software framework. On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 2 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 There is currently a two year grace period for transportation conformity purposes for use of MOVES as the new regulatory model. However, the North Carolina Division of Air Quality (NCDAQ) committed to provide supplemental data to the Annual PM2.5 Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan when MOVES was released and approved for regulatory purposes. The estimation of emissions from mobile sources involves multiplying an activity level by an emission factor. Previously this was done using MOBILE6.2 to calculate an emissions factor and multiplying it by the vehicle miles travelled (VMT). One important new feature of MOVES is the option to calculate emissions either as inventory estimates (total emissions in units of mass) or, emission rates (emissions per unit of distance for running emissions or per vehicle for starts, extended idle and resting evaporative emissions) in a look-up table format. Use of the inventory option simplifies the post-processing of MOVES output compared to MOBILE6.2, but it requires VMT and vehicle population data as an input to MOVES. When using the emission rates option, VMT and vehicle population are applied during post-processing external to MOVES. Either approach can be used to develop emissions estimates for state implementation plans (SIPs) and regional conformity analyses. If inventory option is selected, MOVES provides emissions estimates as mass, using VMT and vehicle population entered by the user. If emission rate option is selected, MOVES provides emission rates as mass per unit of activity. The emission rates option produces a look-up table of emission rates that must be post-processed to produce an inventory. The NCDAQ is electing to run the model in the inventory mode due to faster model run times and fewer post-processing requirements. The USEPA has performed preliminary comparison of MOVES2010 to MOBILE6.2 using local data for several different urban areas, varying the local data used by fleet distribution, fraction of light- and heavy-duty VMT, local fuel specifications, meteorology, and other input factors. In general, volatile organic carbon (VOC) emissions are lower when using MOVES2010 when compared to MOBILE6.2, while NOx and particulate matter (PM) emissions are higher. The quality assurance (QA) for the highway mobile source category can be broken into two components: 1) input files and 2) MOVES outputs/summaries. Each of these components is detailed in the paragraphs below. After the speed and VMT information is acquired from the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), the speed information is checked for reasonableness against previous On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 3 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 sets of speeds for the areas. Once the speeds are deemed reasonable, the NCDAQ enters the speed information into MOVES input files. In addition to the speed information, the user enters data to characterize local meteorology, fleet and activity information. All input files are checked against a “key” with the original source of the information. This QA step is always performed by a person other than the one who generated the input files. If any discrepancies are found, they are noted back to the person who generated the input files for correction. Once the input files have passed through the QA procedure, MOVES is run to generate emissions. On-road mobile sources produce NOx, PM2.5, and SO2, along with a host of other pollutants. Emissions of these three pollutants are estimated in the on-road mobile source inventory for the maintenance plan. The objective of the following section is to describe the source category, the input files, and the emissions estimation procedures. This section also includes tables summarizing the estimated emissions for the projection years by county. On-road mobile sources are considered as those vehicles that travel on the roadways. On-road mobile sources are a major contributor to NOx emissions in North Carolina and a less significant contributor to primary PM2.5 and SO2. Emissions from motor vehicles occur throughout the day while the vehicle is in motion, at idle, parked, and during refueling. All of these emissions processes need to be estimated in order to properly reflect the total emissions from this source category. On-road mobile source emissions comprise a small percentage of the total fine particulate matter emissions for all of North Carolina. Particulate emissions from motor vehicles only occur while the vehicle is moving or idling. These emissions are direct tailpipe (from both gas and diesel fuel vehicles), sulfate, tire wear, and brake wear. Only direct particulate emissions processes will be estimated in order to properly reflect the total fine particulate matter emissions from this source category. A very important component of the highway mobile emission estimation process is interagency consultation. The primary transportation partners involved in the Hickory and Triad redesignation interagency consultation process included: NCDOT, USEPA, Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Greensboro Urban Area Municipal Planning Organization (MPO), On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 4 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 High Point Urban Area MPO, Piedmont Triad Rural Planning Organization (RPO), and Greater Hickory MPO. Specifically the NCDOT was consulted for input data such as speeds and VMT for the rural counties where the Hickory and Triad Urban Travel Demand Models (TDMs) did not cover. An interagency call was held April 19, 2010 to discuss the need to update the motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEBs) for the Greater Hickory and Triad areas. The NCDAQ had the data originally provided for the redesignation for the years 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021. The NCDAQ received updated speeds and VMT for the Triad (Davidson and Guilford Counties), in February 2009, as well as, updated speeds and VMT for Catawba County from NCDOT in April 2009. The NCDAQ discussed the differences anticipated in the emissions by running the MOVES model and the possible necessity to update the MVEBs in the Redesignation Package before the MOVES model would be required to be used for conformity purposes. The interagency partners agreed that the activity data that the NCDAQ had were the latest and should be used as inputs to the MOVES model. Due to the size and the complexity of the MOVES input and output files, the MOVES input files and output files will be provided electronically. Vehicle power, speed, and acceleration have a significant effect on vehicle emissions. MOVES models those emission effects by assigning activity to specific drive cycles or operating mode distributions. The distribution of vehicle hours traveled (VHT) by average speed is used to determine an appropriate operating mode distribution. The Average Speed Distribution importer in MOVES calls for a speed distribution in VHT in 16 speed bins, by each road type, source type, and hour of the day included in the analysis. The methodology used to develop the average speed distribution inputs is documented below. The speeds for the urban areas covered by a TDM were provided by the MPOs. Piedmont Authority for Regional Transportation (PART) provided modeled speeds for the entire county of Guilford and the modeled portion of Davidson County for the desired maintenance plan years. Speeds for rural areas in Davidson and the urban and rural areas in Catawba were generated by NCDOT. Modeled speeds for urban areas of Catawba County were received for the years 2007, 2015, 2025, and 2035, and interpolated to the years needed. Tables 4.2.1-1 through 4.2.1-5 provide a summary of the average speeds in miles per hour (mph). On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 5 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 68 68 68 68 67 Urban Freeway or Expressway 57 57 56 56 55 Urban Other Principal Arterial 39 39 38 38 39 Urban Minor Arterial 40 40 40 40 39 Urban Collector 42 41 42 42 41 Urban Local 46 45 45 45 44 Rural Interstate 69 68 68 68 68 Rural Other Principal Arterial --- --- --- 35 35 Rural Minor Arterial 51 51 51 51 50 Rural Major Collector 43 43 42 42 41 Rural Minor Collector 49 48 48 48 48 Rural Local 49 49 48 48 48 Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 62 63 62 62 62 Urban Freeway or Expressway 56 56 56 56 56 Urban Other Principal Arterial 28 29 28 28 29 Urban Minor Arterial 32 32 32 32 32 Urban Collector 31 31 31 31 31 Urban Local 31 31 31 31 31 Rural Interstate 65 66 65 65 65 Rural Other Principal Arterial 45 46 45 45 45 Rural Minor Arterial 44 44 44 44 44 Rural Major Collector 43 43 43 43 43 Rural Minor Collector 42 42 42 42 42 Rural Local 42 42 42 42 42 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 6 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 55 55 56 56 55 Urban Freeway or Expressway 51 51 50 50 51 Urban Other Principal Arterial 39 39 39 39 39 Urban Minor Arterial 37 37 38 38 38 Urban Collector 37 37 37 37 37 Urban Local 34 34 34 34 34 Rural Interstate 60 59 58 58 57 Rural Other Principal Arterial 47 48 50 50 49 Rural Minor Arterial 43 42 44 44 46 Rural Major Collector 46 46 46 46 45 Rural Minor Collector 47 47 47 47 46 Rural Local 43 42 46 46 45 Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 60 59 57 55 52 Urban Freeway or Expressway 46 46 45 45 44 Urban Other Principal Arterial 34 33 32 31 30 Urban Minor Arterial 34 33 32 31 30 Urban Collector 36 35 34 33 32 Urban Local 38 37 36 35 33 Rural Interstate 64 63 62 60 56 Rural Other Principal Arterial 59 59 58 58 57 Rural Minor Arterial 42 41 40 39 38 Rural Major Collector 43 43 42 42 41 Rural Minor Collector 37 36 35 35 34 Rural Local 42 42 41 41 40 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 7 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Functional Class 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 Urban Interstate 63 63 63 63 63 Urban Freeway or Expressway 56 56 56 56 56 Urban Other Principal Arterial 29 29 29 29 29 Urban Minor Arterial 32 32 32 32 32 Urban Collector 31 31 31 31 31 Urban Local 31 31 31 31 31 Rural Interstate 63 63 63 63 63 Rural Other Principal Arterial 46 46 46 46 46 Rural Minor Arterial 44 44 44 44 44 Rural Major Collector 43 43 43 43 43 Rural Minor Collector 42 42 42 42 42 Rural Local 42 42 42 42 42 MOVES uses four different roadway type categories that are affected by the average speed distribution input: rural restricted access, rural unrestricted access, urban restricted access, and urban unrestricted access (these road types are discussed in more detail in Section 4.2.6). In MOVES, local roadways are included with arterials and collectors in the urban and rural unrestricted access roads category. In MOBILE6.2, local roadways were a separate category with a fixed speed of 12.9 mph. For MOVES, the USEPA recommends that the average speed distribution for local roadway activity be included as part of a weighted distribution of average speed across all unrestricted roads along with the distribution of average speeds for arterials and connectors. When only a single average speed is available for a specific road type and that average speed is not identical to the average speed in a particular speed bin, MOVES guidance stipulates that users should apply the following formula for creating the appropriate speed distribution among two adjacent speed bins. The general formula is: VHT Fraction A in Speed Bin with closest average speed lower than observed average speed + VHT Fraction B in Speed Bin with closest average speed higher that observed average speed = 1 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 8 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 VHT Fraction A(low bin) = 1 – [(observed average speed – average speed of lower speed bin) / (average speed of higher speed bin – average speed of lower speed bin)] VHT Fraction B(high bin) = 1- [(average speed of higher speed bin – observed average speed) / (average speed of higher speed bin – average speed of lower speed bin)] Or more simply: VHT Fraction B = 1 – VHT fraction A The following is an example of applying the above equations. If the single average speed for a roadway is 58 miles per hour, the average speed distribution will be split between the 55 and 60 mph speed bins. The appropriate VHT fractions are found with the following equations: VHT fraction A(low bin) = 1 – [(58 mph Avg. Speed – 55 mph (Bin Speed)) / (60 mph (Bin Speed) – 55 mph (Bin Speed)] = 0.4 VHT fraction B(high bin) = 1 – [(60 mph (Bin Speed) – 58 mph Avg. Speed) / (60 mph (Bin Speed) – 55 mph (Bin Speed)] = 0.6 VHT Fraction A(low bin) + VHT Fraction B(high bin) = 1 0.4 + 0.6 = 1 As stated above, MOVES uses only four different roadway types: rural restricted access, rural unrestricted access, urban restricted access and urban unrestricted access. This means that the speeds for multiple roadway types need to be combined into the appropriate speed bins. To create the speed bin fractions for combined roadways the VMT for each road way is used to weight the speed bin fraction. For example, below are speeds and VMT for urban restricted access road types: Road type Speed (miles/hour) VMT (hourly miles) Urban Interstate 63 250,000 Urban Freeway 56 100,000 The first step is to determine the speed bin fractions for each road type separately. For the urban interstate road type, the speed 63 is split between the MOVES speed bins of 60 and 65 as described above, which results in the VHT fractions of 0.4 and 0.6 for speed bins 60 and 65, respectively. Similarly, the speed for the urban freeway road type (56 miles/hour) is split On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 9 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 between the MOVES speed bins of 55 and 60 and results in the VHT fractions of 0.8 and 0.2, respectively. The next step requires road type VMT to weigh the VHT Fractions so that the final MOVES speed bin fractions can be developed. The VHT Fraction, specific to the road type and speed bin, are multiplied by the corresponding hourly VMT. These hourly totals are divided by the total VMT for that hour for the road type category (in this example, urban restricted access includes urban interstate and urban freeway). The following equation is used to calculate the combined speed bin fractions: Where: RT = the HPMS road type In this example, the HPMS road types are urban interstate (UI) and urban freeway (UF) and the speed bins are 55, 60 and 65. The table below summarizes the speed bin fractions for this example. HPMS Road Type Speed Bin 55 Speed Bin 60 Speed Bin 65 Urban Interstate 0.0 0.4 0.6 Urban Freeway 0.8 0.2 0.0 Using the equation below, the final MOVES speed bin fractions are calculated for the urban restricted access road type. VHT(Speed Bin X) = [(VHT Fraction(UI) * hourly VMT(UI)) + (VHT Fraction(UF) * hourly VMT(UF))] (hourly VMT(UI) + hourly VMT(UF)) VHT(Speed Bin 55) = [(0.0 * 250,000) + (0.8 * 100,000)] (250,000 + 100,000) VHT(Speed Bin 55) = 0.2286 VHT(Speed Bin 60) = [(0.4 * 250,000) + (0.2 * 100,000)] (250,000 + 100,000) VHT(Speed Bin 60) = 0.3428 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 10 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 VHT(Speed Bin 65) = [(0.6 * 250,000) + (0.0 * 100,000)] (250,000 + 100,000) VHT(Speed Bin 65) = 0.4286 The sum of the VHT fractions for all speed bins within a road type category must add up to 1.0. The hourly VHT fractions by speed bin and road type are then processed through a MOVES supplied converter to develop the speed distribution file by hour and road type. The age distribution of vehicle fleets can vary significantly from area to area. Fleets with a higher percentage of older vehicles will have higher emissions for two reasons. Older vehicles have typically been driven more miles and have experienced more deterioration in emission control systems. Additionally, a higher percentage of older vehicles also implies that there are more vehicles in the fleet that do not meet newer, more stringent emissions standards. Surveys of registration data indicate considerable local variability in vehicle age distributions. For SIP and conformity purposes, the USEPA recommends and encourages states to develop local age distributions. The MOVES model categorizes the vehicle fleet into different vehicle classes and more model years than MOBILE6.2. A typical vehicle fleet includes a mix of vehicles of different ages. MOVES covers a 31 year range of vehicle ages, with vehicles 30 years and older grouped together. MOVES allows the user to specify the fraction of vehicles in each of 30 vehicle ages for each of the 13 source types in the model. Local age distributions can be estimated from local vehicle registration data. The vehicle age distribution comes from annual registration data for North Carolina from the NCDOT. For this analysis, the age distribution was generated based on 2008 data, the latest available count data at the time. The NCDOT provided the data based on the number of vehicle types per year from 1975 through 2008. The data obtained from the NCDOT has the vehicles greater than 25 years old combined and included as the 25th model year. Additionally, the NCDOT data has the vehicle count information provided for nine vehicle types; light duty gas vehicles (LDGV), light duty diesel vehicles (LDDV), light duty gas trucks 1 (LDGT1), light duty gas trucks 2 (LDGT2), light duty diesel trucks 1 (LDDT1), light duty diesel trucks 2 (LDDT2), heavy duty gas vehicles (HDGV), heavy duty diesel vehicles (HDDV) and motorcycles (MC). LDDT1 and LDDT2 are combined and labeled as light duty diesel trucks (LDDT). Since MOVES categorizes the vehicle fleet into different vehicle classes and more model years, the USEPA has created data converters On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 11 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 that take registration distribution input files created for MOBILE6.2 and converts them to the appropriate age distribution input tables for MOVES. Vehicle mix or VMT mix is used by MOVES to convert annual VMT to VMT by HPMS class, VMT fractions by hour, and VMT by road type distribution. The vehicle mix is developed by the same method used in MOBILE6.2, as outlined below. The resulting file is then used in a MOVES supplied converter to develop the VMT by HPMS class, VMT fractions by hour, and VMT by road type distribution. The vehicle mix refers to the percentage of different vehicle types on each of the 12 FHWA road types. These road types are listed above in the speed assumptions section. It is critical for estimating on-road mobile source emissions in an area to use data that accurately reflects the vehicles types traveling on each of these different road types. In August 2004, the USEPA released the guidance document EPA420-R-04-013 Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation, which outlines how to convert the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) traffic count data to MOBILE6.2 vehicle mix data Outlined below is the methodology used to convert the 13 HPMS vehicle types count data reported to FHWA and generate a state specific vehicle mix. The North Carolina HPMS data used to generate the new statewide vehicle mix was based on 2008 data counts. This is the latest available statewide count information at the time of the modeling. Table 4.2.3-1 shows the percent of vehicles per vehicle type for each of the 12 road classes. On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 12 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Section 4.1.5 of Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation, illustrates how to map the HPMS statewide vehicle data to general MOBILE6.2 vehicle categories. This mapping is outlined in Table 4.2.4-1 below: Motorcycle Motorcycle (MC) Passenger Car Passenger Car (LDV) Other 2-Axel, 4-Tire Vehicles Light Truck (LDT) Busses Bus (HDB) All Other Trucks: Single unit, 2-axel, 6-tire Single unit, 3-axel Single unit, 4 or more axel Single trailer, 4 or fewer axel Single trailer, 5-axel Single trailer, 6 or more axel Multi-trailer, 5 or fewer axel Multi-trailer, 6-axel Multi-trailer, 7 or more axel Heavy Duty Truck (HDV) The HPMS data in Table 4.2.3-1 was grouped into these five general categories for each road type. In order to expand the five general categories to the 16 vehicle types used in MOBILE6.2, the national average VMT fractions by each vehicle class were used. The 2008 fractions were used since the state specific data is from 2008. The national average data was obtained from Table 4.1.2 in Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation. An example for rural interstates is illustrated below: From Table 4.2.3-1 above: Passenger Cars = 60.13% 5 axel Trailer = 17.65% Pickup Trucks = 13.72% 6 axel Trailer = 0.66% Bus = 1.04% 5 axel Multi Trailer = 0.51% 2 axel Trucks = 2.86% 6 axel Multi Trailer = 0.23% 3 axel Trucks = 0.75% 7 axel Multi Trailer = 0.15% 4 axel Trucks = 0.05% Motorcycles = 0.38% 4 axel Trailer = 1.86% On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 13 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Therefore, the five general categories are: Motorcycles = 0.38% Light Duty Vehicles = 60.13% Light Duty Trucks = 13.72% Heavy Duty Buses = 1.04% Heavy Duty Vehicles = 24.73% From Table 4.1.2 in Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation, the 2008 national average vehicle mix for light duty trucks, buses and heavy duty trucks are: Light Duty Trucks Heavy Duty Trucks LDT1 = 0.0846 LDT2 = 0.2817 LDT3 = 0.0868 LDT4 = 0.0399 Buses Using the methodology described in Section 4.1.5 in Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation the new 2008 North Carolina statewide mix was developed. The basic formula for developing the mix is shown below, Vehicle Type = (2008 M6.2 fraction for vehicle) X (2008 State total for group) . (2008 M6.2 total for subcategory) Table 4.2.4-2 displays the calculation for each vehicle type for the 2008 rural interstate vehicle mix. HDV2B = 0.0388 HDV3 = 0.0038 HDV4 = 0.0031 HDV5 = 0.0024 HDV6 = 0.0087 HDV7 = 0.0102 HDV8A = 0.0111 HDBS = 0.0020 HDV8B = 0.0397 HDBT = 0.0009 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 14 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Vehicle Type Calculation New 2008 Mix LDV = LDV = 0.6013 MC = MC = 0.0038 Light Duty Trucks LDT1 = 0.0846 x (0.1372/0.4930) = 0.0235 LDT2 = 0.2817 x (0.1372/0.4930) = 0.0784 LDT3 = 0.0868 x (0.1372/0.4930) = 0.0242 LDT4 = 0.0399 x (0.1372/0.4930) = 0.0111 Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV2B = 0.0388 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0815 HDV3 = 0.0038 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0080 HDV4 = 0.0031 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0065 HDV5 = 0.0024 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0050 HDV6 = 0.0087 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0183 HDV7 = 0.0102 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0214 HDV8A = 0.0111 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0233 HDV8B = 0.0397 x (0.2473/0.1178) = 0.0833 Buses HDBS = 0.0020 x (0.0104/0.0029) = 0.0072 HDBT = 0.0009 x (0.0104/0.0029) = 0.0032 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017 and 2021 Statewide Vehicle Mix Once the 2008 new vehicle mix was generated, the other years were created using the methodology described in Section 4.1.4 in Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation. This method grouped light duty vehicles, light duty trucks and motorcycles together and heavy duty buses, heavy duty trucks and heavy duty vehicles together. The combined percentages for these groupings are listed below. Light Duty Vehicles = 74.23% Heavy Duty Vehicles = 25.77% On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 15 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 The MOBILE6.2 vehicle mix fractions for the year being developed were obtained from Table 4.1.2 in Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission Inventory Preparation. The MOBILE6.2 vehicle fractions for 2008 are listed below. Light Duty Vehicles Heavy Duty Vehicles The North Carolina 2008 vehicle mix was normalized to the MOBILE6.2 fractions using the following formula: Vehicle Type = (2008 M6 fraction for vehicle) X (2008 State total for group) (2008 M6 total for group) Table 4.2.4-3 below displays the calculations used to generate the 2008 North Carolina vehicle mix for rural interstate. LDV = 0.3807 LDT1 = 0.0846 LDT2 = 0.2817 LDT3 = 0.0868 LDT4 = 0.0399 MC = 0.0056 HDV2B = 0.0388 HDV3 = 0.0038 HDV4 = 0.0031 HDV5 = 0.0024 HDV6 = 0.0087 HDV7 = 0.0102 HDV8A = 0.0111 HDV8B = 0.0397 HDBS = 0.0020 HDBT = 0.0009 On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 16 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 Vehicle Type Calculation 2008 State Mix Light Duty Vehicles LDV = 0.3807 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.3219 LDT1 = 0.0846 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.0715 LDT2 = 0.2817 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.2381 LDT3 = 0.0868 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.0734 LDT4 = 0.0399 x (0.7386/0.8737) = 0.0337 MC = 0.0038 Heavy Duty Vehicles HDV2B = 0.0388 x (0.2472/0.1178) = 0.0814 HDV3 = 0.0038 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0080 HDV4 = 0.0031 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0065 HDV5 = 0.0024 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0050 HDV6 = 0.0087 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0183 HDV7 = 0.0102 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0214 HDV8A = 0.0111 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0233 HDV8B = 0.0397 x (0. 2472/0.1178) = 0.0833 HDBS = 0.0020 x (0.0104/0.0029) = 0.0072 HDBT = 0.0009 x (0.0104/0.0029) = 0.0032 This method was used to generate all of the future year vehicle mixes that were needed to compute the emission factors. The North Carolina transportation partners consider the statewide vehicle mix to be the best representation of the vehicle population in the Hickory and Triad nonattainment area. The vehicle mixes for all years can be found in Section 5.1 of this appendix. As stated earlier in this section, vehicle mix or VMT mix is used in MOVES converters to develop VMT by HPMS class, VMT fractions by hour, and VMT by road type distribution, which are inputs to the model. The Vehicles/Equipment menu item and panel is used to specify the vehicle types that are included in the MOVES run. MOVES allows the user to select from among 13 “source use On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 17 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 types” (the terminology that MOVES uses to describe vehicle types), and four different fuel types (gasoline, diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), and electricity). For SIP and regional conformity analyses, users must select the appropriate fuel and vehicle type combinations in the On Road Vehicle Equipment panel to reflect the full range of vehicles that will operate in the county. For this analysis all valid diesel, gasoline, and CNG (only transit buses) vehicle and fuel combinations were selected. The Road Type Panel is used to define the types of roads that are included in the run. MOVES defines five different Road Types: • Off-Network (roadtype 1) – all locations where the predominant activity is vehicle starts, parking and idling (parking lots, truck stops, rest areas, freight or bus terminals) • Rural Restricted Access (2) – rural highways that can only be accessed by an on-ramp • Rural Unrestricted Access (3) – all other rural roads (arterials, connectors, and local streets) • Urban Restricted Access (4) – urban highways or freeways that can only be accessed by an on-ramp • Urban Unrestricted Access (5) – all other urban roads (arterials, connectors, and local streets) Users should select the road types present in the area being analyzed. The determination of rural or urban road types should be based on the HPMS classification of the roads in the county being analyzed. The NCDAQ followed the USEPA guidance that states that all SIP and regional conformity analyses must include the Off-Network road type in order to account for emissions from vehicle starts, extended idle activity, and evaporative emissions (for hydrocarbons). The Off-Network road type is automatically selected when start or extended idle pollutant processes are chosen and must be selected for all evaporative emissions to be quantified. Off-Network activity in MOVES is primarily determined by the Source Type Population input, which is described in Section 4.2.9 of this document. Some evaporative emissions are estimated on roadways (i.e., roadtypes 2, 3, 4, and 5) to account for evaporative emissions that occur when vehicles are driving. All roads types are automatically selected when Refueling emission processes are selected. On-road Mobile Source Emission Inventory Documentation 18 Hickory and Greensboro/Winston-Salem/Highpoint Annual PM2.5 Appendix C.3 Supplement to the Redesignation Demonstration and Maintenance Plan December 22, 2010 MOVES uses Road Type to assign default drive cycles to activity on road types 2, 3, 4, and 5. For example, for unrestricted access road types, MOVES uses drive cycles that assume stop and go driving, including multiple accelerations, decelerations, and short periods of idling. For restricted access road types, MOVES uses drive cycles that include a higher fraction of cruise activity with less time spent accelerating or idling, although some ramp activity is also included. In MOVES, pollutant refers to particular types of pollutants or precursors of the pollutant, such as PM or NOx, while process refers to the mechanism by which emissions are created, such as running exhaust or start exhaust. Users must select all processes associated with a particular pollutant in order to account for all emissions of that pollutant. For example, there are 11 separate pollutant processes in MOVES fo |
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