State of the North Carolina Workforce : an assessment of the state's labor force demand and supply, 2007-2017

              State of the North Carolina Workforce
An Assessment of the State’s Labor Force
Demand and Supply
2007 – 2017
The North Carolina Commission
on Workforce Development
January 2007
The North Carolina Commission on Workforce Development
procured the services of the following organizations to
conduct this research
Table of Contents
Members of the Commission .................................................................................................. i
Executive Summary................................................................................................................ ii
Following are the eight key trends identified in the report:...................................................... iii
Many Traditional NC Manufacturing Industries Are Shedding Jobs ....................................... iii
North Carolina’s Traditional “ Middle Jobs” Are Disappearing ................................................. iv
New Job Creation Is Concentrating in Fast- growing Urban Areas ......................................... v
Many Areas Are Not Prospering ............................................................................................. v
Future Prosperity Depends on Achieving Higher Educational Attainment Levels .................. v
Baby- boom Retirements Will Deplete Labor Force Talent...................................................... vi
High Skill In- migrants Can Help Close the Skills Gap............................................................. vi
Low Skill In- migrants Present Opportunities and Challenges................................................. vii
Call to Action................................................................................................................. ......... vii
Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1
Defining Sub- state Units of Analysis....................................................................................... 2
Identifying a Rural- Urban Hierarchy.............................................................................. ......... 3
Defining North Carolina’s Three Primary Geographic Regions .................................... ......... 6
The Piedmont Region ............................................................................................................. 7
The Coastal Region ................................................................................................................ 8
The Mountain Region ............................................................................................................. 9
State Workforce Demand and Supply .................................................................................... 9
Workforce Demand................................................................................................................. 9
About the Data........................................................................................................................ 9
Industry Job Trends and Projections ...................................................................................... 12
Occupational Employment Trends and Projections ................................................................ 17
Summary of Key Demand Analysis ........................................................................................ 27
Workforce Supply.......................................................................................................... ......... 28
Demographic Analysis ............................................................................................................ 28
Summary of Key Supply Analysis ........................................................................................... 42
Employer Demand & Workforce Supply Gap Analysis ........................................................... 44
Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 48
Appendix 1: Summary of Existing Economic and Workforce Developments Studies and Plans II
Regional Vision Plans................................................................................................... ......... II
Vision Plan Strategies for Workforce, Education and Training ............................................... III
Selected Workforce Development Strategies Already in Place .................................... ......... VII
Appendix 2: 200 Fastest Growing Industries in North Carolina ............................................. X
Appendix 3: NC Selected Occupational Employment Projections ......................................... XVII
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North Carolina Commission on Workforce Development
Members
Sylvia Anderson
Guilford County Schools
Greensboro, NC
Dr. June Atkinson
NC Department of Public
Instruction
Raleigh, NC
Commissioner Cherie Berry
NC Department of Labor
Raleigh, NC
Lonnie H. Blizzard
Education Consultant
Kinston, NC
Ronnie Bugnar
Person County Schools
Roxboro, NC
Marianna Clampett
Clampett Enterprise
Raleigh, NC
H. Lee Clyburn
Grubbs & Ellis/ Thomas
Linderman
Raleigh, NC
Paul Combs
Paul Combs Enterprises
Boone, NC
Ray Deane
William Barnet & Son, LLC
Kinston, NC
Charley Donohoe
LifeSteps LLC
Winston- Salem, NC
Bill Downey
L. A. Downey & Son
Durham, NC
Sandy Drum
Nash- Rocky Mount Public
Schools
Nashville, NC
Secretary Jim Fain
NC Department of Commerce
Raleigh, NC
Bill Farmer
Time Warner Cable
Charlotte, NC
Ken Gregory
Durham Exchange Club Industries, Inc.
Durham, NC
Phrantceena Halres
Aelmings Human Resources Corp.
Raleigh, NC
Scott T. Hamilton
Henderson County Partnership for
Economic Development
Hendersonville, NC
Jim Henderson
Castle Worldwide Inc.
Morrisville, NC
Meredythe Holmes
Monarch Services
Durham, NC
Earl Jaggers
AFL- CIO ( BCT- 317- T)
Burlington, NC
Edward W. Kelly III
Greensboro, NC
President Martin Lancaster
NC Community College System
Raleigh, NC
Susan Lassiter
Roanoke- Chowan Hospital
Ahoskie, NC
Helga Mattei
Consultant
Raleigh, NC
Martha Matthews
Biogen Idec
RTP, NC
David McCune
McCune Technology
Fayetteville, NC
MaryBe McMillan
NC State AFL- CIO
Raleigh, NC
Sec. Carmen Hooker- Odom
NC Dept. Health & Human Services
Raleigh, NC
Michael Okun
NC AFL- CIO
Raleigh, NC
Chairman Harry Payne
Employment Security Commission
Raleigh, NC
Juanita Pilgrim
County of Cumberland
Fayetteville, NC
Bill Ragland
Ragland Electrical Supply
Brevard, NC
Alex Rankin
Concord Engineering & Surveying
Concord, NC
Chris Rolfe
Duke Energy Corporation
Charlotte, NC
Chip Roth
International Brotherhood of
Teamsters
Greensboro, NC
Mark Sorrells
Golden Leaf Foundation
Rocky Mount, NC
Terry A. Wethington
B. R. Retried, Union
New Bern, NC
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State of the North Carolina Workforce
An Assessment of the State’s Labor Force
Demand and Supply
2007 - 2017
Executive Summary
The North Carolina economy is transforming in many ways and on many levels. One key transformation
involves the State’s shift from an economy based on traditional manufacturing to a new economy driven
increasingly by knowledge- intensive, business services activities. In response to this transformation,
many firms are changing their products or production processes and offering expanded services as they
adapt new technologies and build closer ties with suppliers and customers. Just as important is
continued service sector growth, which is creating a large demand for both jobs requiring high skills and
offering high wages and jobs requiring minimal skills, leaving a significant gap in the demand for jobs in
the “ middle.” When viewed in the aggregate, economic and occupational shifts are having dramatic
impacts on the state’s workforce.
This “ State of the North Carolina Workforce” report seeks to shed light on statewide trends and to
unmask significant regional patterns in job creation and its impact on the demand for workers. In
particular, the study examines economic and workforce development patterns in the state’s urban areas,
small towns, and rural communities as well as North Carolina’s geographic regions– the Mountains,
Piedmont, and Coast. Based on an in- depth quantitative analysis of the current and projected labor
market supply and demand, the goal of the study is to describe North Carolina’s progress to date and the
challenges and opportunities for completing a successful economic transformation.
Important caveats should be noted related to this analysis. First, this analysis uses data calibrated to the
US Bureau of Economic Analysis ( BEA) definition for employment. The BEA combines employment data
from the North Carolina Employment Security Commission’s unemployment insurance administrative
records ( the most commonly used data source in counting jobs) with data on proprietors, farm workers,
and government workers. Second, the forecasts are based on both past trends and assumptions about
anticipated future developments, assuming no changes in policy or economic conditions. Thus, these
forecasts should be used in the spirit in which they are provided, as a tool for assessing likely future
growth patterns in the event that no policy action takes place to change that future and there are no
major unforeseen economic upheavals. Third, other analyses may differ slightly in their outlook for
certain industries or occupations. These differences come from using different projection tools and
models. However, the core predictions hold true across methodologies and represent an accurate
picture of the future, assuming current trends do not change.
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Following are the eight key trends identified in the report:
• Many of North Carolina’s traditional manufacturing industries continue to shed jobs as
part of an on- going economic transition.
• North Carolina’s traditional “ middle jobs”— those that paid a family- sustaining wage and
required minimal formal education or training— are disappearing as part of this transition.
• New job creation is concentrating in certain fast- growing metropolitan areas.
• Many areas of North Carolina are not prospering from the economic transformation.
• The future prosperity of all North Carolinians depends on achieving higher educational
attainment levels for all citizens.
• Impending baby- boom retirements will exacerbate an emerging skills gap among
experienced, skilled workers.
• High- skill in- migrants will help fill part, but not all, of this skills gap.
• Low- skill in- migrants present both opportunities and challenges in meeting the state’s
workforce needs.
This report reviews each of these trends, identifies key issues and challenges for North Carolina, and
examines both industry’s demand for labor and the supply of workers available to meet those needs. It
should be noted that while these trends are presented separately, many are integrally linked and are only
presented discretely for ease of assimilation. Policy actions should take into account the whole of the
picture and the relationship among the trends. Following is a brief discussion regarding the eight key
trends from the study.
Many Traditional NC Manufacturing Industries Are Shedding Jobs
Mature manufacturing industries still account for a sizable portion of the North Carolina economy, and
many are expected to continue shedding jobs during the next decade. For instance, certain industry
sectors— such as elements of textiles, apparel, furniture, and computer/ electronics— are shedding a large
number of jobs, offsetting employment gains in other industries. Losses in these industry sectors are
occurring throughout the state, but their greatest impacts are being felt in smaller communities that once
relied almost entirely on recently down- sized or closed manufacturing facilities.
Executive Summary Figure 1:
NC Employment in Selected Manufacturing Industries
North Carolina Employment 2002 2005
Δ Employ,
2002- 05 % Change
Textile and textile product mills 99,091 68,580 - 30,511 - 30.8%
Apparel 35,697 26,426 - 9,271 - 26.0%
Furniture & related products 67,695 59,280 - 8,415 - 12.4%
Computer & electronic products 46,741 39,215 - 7,526 - 16.1%
NC MFG Industries 662,354 590,346 - 72,008 - 10.9%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Executive Summary Figure 2:
US and NC Net New Jobs by Required Education ( Estimated Change 2007- 2017)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Percent of Total New Employment ( 2007- 17)
USA
NC
‘ Disappearing’
Traditional Middle Jobs
‘ New Middle’
Jobs
North Carolina’s Traditional “ Middle Jobs” Are Disappearing
The tragedy of the state’s manufacturing jobs loss is that many semi- skilled workers are finding they do
not have the skills to compete for jobs in high demand occupations. The difficulties facing these workers
are exacerbated by two facts: ( 1) those high demand jobs are disproportionately being created in a few
urban areas while the losses are occurring in other parts of the state, and ( 2) the level of skills needed to
be competitive for good paying jobs is rising dramatically with time. The lost manufacturing jobs
represented many of the ‘ traditional middle jobs’ that offered family- supporting wages but did not require
extensive education and training. Many of the state’s dislocated workers did not have a high school
education because manufacturers did not require a diploma. Dislocated or unprepared workers who do
not have the resources or inclination to obtain the skills required from significant investments in
education often must settle for low- skill jobs. Yet, available jobs offering middle- income pay now
demand more formal education, often beyond a high school degree. To compete for these ‘ new middle
jobs,’ workers must invest years in more education or re- training.
At the same time, the economy is creating many new high- skill, high- wage jobs but they are now
concentrated in a few major urban hubs. Creating opportunities for workers in less populated areas of
the state will take new and innovative approaches to economic development. It is clear, however, that
education levels must increase for these new approaches to gain any traction.
There simply are not enough skilled workers to fill the high- skill, high- wage jobs in the occupations where
they are now growing. Those being squeezed from their traditional middle jobs are not ready to compete
for available opportunities. Furthermore, few opportunities are available within easy commuting distance
of many displaced workers. Thus, it becomes even harder for the unprepared to gain access to higher
income jobs leaving them to compete primarily for low- skill, low- paying wages. The result is an
increasingly polarized workforce – those who have skills and access to good- paying jobs and those
without skills and only access to primarily lower- paying jobs.
Note: Gray areas indicate 2007 proportion of
NC employment within the ‘ traditional middle’
educational bands.
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New Job Creation Is Concentrating in Fast- growing Urban Areas
As North Carolina’s traditional economic base declines, the data reveal that the state’s overall economy
is becoming more diverse and more similar to the rest of the country. The state’s services sector is
expected to grow more rapidly in the coming decade, as a combination of high- skill, high value- added
services and low- skill, low value- added services replace the jobs lost in mature goods- producing sectors.
Whereas the state’s traditional manufacturers are often located in small towns, we see that the bulk of
these emerging new activities, particularly those that require higher skills and thus have higher pay are
concentrating in the state’s larger metropolitan areas. Many of the metropolitan counties of the Piedmont
region, for instance, enjoy the most dynamic economies. The companies in the Piedmont account for 64
percent of current jobs and 68 percent of new jobs projected to be created in the next decade.
Statewide, metropolitan counties have 74 percent of current jobs while 81 percent of projected new jobs
are expected to be created in these metropolitan areas.
Many Areas Are Not Prospering
In contrast to the success in the Piedmont, especially around Charlotte and the Research Triangle,
relatively slower growth has occurred throughout much of the rest of the state, especially in the
Mountains and Coastal regions. While many of the largest metropolitan areas are growing rapidly,
smaller urban ( or “ micropolitan”) areas and rural counties are creating fewer jobs, many of which include
lower wage consumer services or temporary jobs. In addition, the Piedmont Triad has also not yet
gained traction in finding a new economic base to replace its declining manufacturing industries.
Overall, about 40 percent of the state’s new jobs will require little more than short- term training ( see
“ Below GED” in Executive Summary Figure 2), but in the micropolitan and rural areas, that figure is
closer to 50 percent. Unfortunately, these low- skill jobs pay approximately 60 percent of the state’s
current average earnings.
The metro areas are enduring labor supply shortages even though they offer higher average wages.
Increasingly, they are tapping the workforce in nearby micropolitan and rural labor markets for the best
and brightest talent, requiring either relocation or extended commuting patterns.
Quite simply, the state’s micropolitan and rural economies are not creating enough high- and middle-income
jobs to meet all of their local employment needs. For some workers, the option is to settle for
underemployment or no employment.
Future Prosperity Depends on Achieving Higher Educational Attainment Levels
Even in the most successful regions, North Carolina’s earnings trail the rest of the country. Not only is
this true statewide, but also in the state’s high earning metro counties and Piedmont region where
average earnings trail the US by 4 percent. Based on the mix of industries and occupations projected to
grow the fastest in North Carolina, this relative earnings pattern will not change during the coming
decade. To close that gap, the future prosperity of North Carolinians relies heavily upon further
enhancing workers’ education and skills.
Simply put, the more education that an occupation demands, the higher the average earnings. Workers
with no post- secondary education or certification are finding it increasingly difficult to compete for jobs in
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high wage occupations. The highest wage occupations require an advanced degree and pay 106
percent greater than the state average. Those requiring a bachelor’s degree pay 90 percent greater than
the state average. Those occupations requiring some college or an associate’s degree offer earnings 15
percent higher than the state average. Even jobs that required some college or at least one year of
training and experience paid about 5 percent above average.
The good news is that, overall, the state’s educational attainment levels are rising. In 1990, 70 percent of
North Carolina adults aged 25 and older held a high school degree, increasing to 84 percent by 2005.
Likewise, in 1990, only 17 percent of adult North Carolinians held a bachelor’s degree or higher, but this
rate increased to 27 percent by 2005. Even with this significant progress during the past 15 years, the
state continues to trail the nation in educational attainment and still has far to go to ensure that workers
without a formal post- secondary education, especially those without access to or the resources to take
advantage of education opportunities, do not fall farther behind.
Baby- boom Retirements Will Deplete Labor Force Talent
Global demographic shifts will create additional challenges in meeting North Carolina’s future workforce
needs. Perhaps most pressing is the impending retirement of the first wave of the baby- boom generation
( those born between 1946 and 1955). If this segment of the workforce is lost en masse, it could create
tremendous upheaval in the workplace.
While the boomers are retiring, the state is projected to add about 30,000 new adults each year as
potential workers, enough to replace the retirees but not enough to fill the new jobs being created. With
70,000 new jobs being created each year during the next 10 years, 40,000 net new jobs could go
begging for workers annually. The retirement of one- quarter of the workforce, especially many of the
state’s most experienced workers, in just 13 years has the potential to leave a gaping hole in the supply
of workers during the next two decades.
High Skill In- migrants Can Help Close the Skills Gap
Fortunately, new in- migrating workers are helping to mitigate the state’s current labor shortages. New
North Carolinians represent several key cohorts – including highly- prized college- educated, young adults
( especially those aged 20- 29). In addition, Hispanics, Asians, and foreign- born residents are also
common in- migrants to North Carolina. While the state’s overall age structure is relatively similar to the
US, in- migrants are, on average, about seven years younger. In- migrants provide potential solutions to
the demand for workers for both high- skill and low- skill occupations.
Attracting young talent is not the only solution for closing the state’s skill gap. The state is also attracting
retirees and, importantly, ‘ pre- retirees’ ( aged 50- 64). These pre- retirees are often looking for their
eventual retirement destination, but they are not yet ready to leave the workforce. Nearly one in four
retirement and pre- retirement age in- migrants chose to move to Charlotte during the last decade. The
Raleigh- Durham area has also served as a major destination for pre- retirees. Certainly, Asheville has
also benefited from in- migrations among this group, with 9 percent of all 50- and- older in- migrants to
North Carolina choosing the Asheville metropolitan area as their new home.
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Low Skill In- migrants Present Opportunities and Challenges
Just as experienced in- migrants help in closing the state’s skills gap, the state is also attracting a large
number of unskilled or semi- skilled in- migrants. One of the largest cohorts within this group of in-migrants
is Hispanic workers. This cohort of new North Carolinians poses new challenges for the state’s
workforce development leaders. Growth in the state’s Hispanic population continues to far outpace the
national average. In 2005, North Carolina was ranked 11th for total number of Hispanic residents, and
official estimates put that number at over 600,000. However, recent research on unauthorized at the
Pew Hispanic Center ( www. pewhispanic. org) of unauthorized migrants suggests that the total may
actually be as high as 1 million ( or 11 percent) North Carolinians are of Hispanic origin.
The large scale influx of low- skill Hispanic workers provides a significant source of workers for many
industries, including construction, agriculture, food processing and a number of other services.
Nevertheless, this population also poses several real challenges for the state’s education, workforce and
social services providers. Many low- skill workers, especially persons whose first language is not English,
could inhibit growth of the state’s standard of living. Efforts to acculturate this new in- migrant community
will be critically important to the state’s economic success.
Call to Action
North Carolina’s changing economy will demand an adaptable workforce. During the past decade,
jobs losses in traditional manufacturing sectors have resulted in significant economic hardship across the
state. Many of those dislocated workers settled for lower paying, low- skill jobs because they did not
qualify for the new jobs that offered better wages, but demanded higher skills or better education.
Furthermore, many dislocated workers lacked access to educational resources, could not afford to take
advantage of those educational opportunities, or simply were not inclined to disrupt their lives any further
by going back to school. These issues continue in those basic sectors as certain manufacturing
industries shed more jobs in the future, but North Carolina’s future economy will look very different. New
industries are emerging, many of which offer high wages to those with the most skills. Consequently,
North Carolina finds itself with a widening gap: on one end is a growing shortage of high skill talent
needed to fill emerging well paying jobs and on the other end are many low skill workers settling for jobs
that do not offer a family- sustaining wage.
The state’s workforce and education system faces the challenge of preparing an increasingly larger
proportion of North Carolinians for better- paying, higher skill jobs. This challenge is made more daunting
by the large existing pool of workers that lack the most basic skills or credentials ( e. g., a high school
degree or post- secondary training and education) necessary for these new higher quality jobs. As a
result, North Carolina must seek to provide the state’s existing workforce with better access to longer-term
training and education to meet the needs of its fast- growing industries. Importantly the State must
also create opportunities throughout all of North Carolina.
As leaders review the key trends facing the state, North Carolina must consider the implications for state
policy. How do we respond most effectively to the painful transitions caused by worker dislocations in
our traditional industries? How do we prepare workers for emerging, fast- growing industries? How do
we help the entire state to prosper while encouraging the state’s fast- growing urban economies to
continue operating at their fullest capacity? How do we help our citizens to value education more highly
viii
to ensure that they are fully prepared for the opportunities that fast- growing new industries offer? These
are some of the questions raised key challenges facing our state.
State and local policy makers and practitioners involved in workforce development, education, and
economic development must all participate fully in developing the solutions to address these challenges
effectively. The responses from these existing networks and the state’s multi- billion dollar investment in
education, workforce development and economic development should be directed to efforts that create
an environment in which the economy continues to develop and allows all citizens to contribute as valued
members of that economy. These solutions must recognize that North Carolina is no longer a source for
low- cost, low- skill labor for global markets. Our success will be based on innovation, new ideas,
entrepreneurial behaviors, and continuously advancing education levels. How we achieve these ideals
and create a more integrated system of life- long learning are at the heart of whether North Carolina can
continue to prosper and truly become “ The State of Minds.”
To access the complete State of the Workforce Report electronically, please visit:
http:// www. nccommerce. com/ workforce/ swr
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North Carolina State of the Workforce:
An Assessment of the
State’s Labor Force Demand and Supply
Introduction
North Carolina’s economy is undergoing a critical economic transformation. For decades, the state
depended on agriculture and manufacturing industries for its middle- income, family- sustaining jobs.
Increasingly, North Carolinians are finding those jobs subsumed by an economy that is much more
globally oriented, knowledge- driven, and service- based. During the past several years, numerous
studies and strategies have characterized these challenges and identified potential policy responses.
Appendix 1 summarizes several of the state’s key regional economic development plans, as well as
representative workforce studies conducted in various state regions.
The transformation occurring in North Carolina has significant implications for the state’s businesses
and workers, changing what they do and how they compete in a globally integrated economy. This
analysis explores how far North Carolina has traveled in the transformation process and looks to the
future to identify the jobs that will provide family- supporting wages. Not only is the goal of this analysis to
examine projections of where jobs will be in the future, but the analysis also explores the readiness of
North Carolina’s workforce to fill those jobs. What kinds of jobs can the state expect to be available?
Will North Carolina have the workers required to fill these jobs? How might the state’s public education
and training system prepare for North Carolina’s economy as it continues this historic shift during the
next ten years?
In looking to the future, we must rely on economic forecasts, which are, at best, educated guesses
about what the future holds. Forecasts, such as the one offered in this report, provide users with a sense
of the state’s direction as well as information about expected growth patterns should no policy action be
taken to change the future. However, it is critical to note that forecasts rely on information about recent
trends and assumptions about future behaviors. Furthermore, not all economists agree on what these
trends mean or what assumptions should be made. In addition, these trends are subject to unforeseen
events as well as the concerted efforts of policy makers to address the state’s challenges. In fact, the
most important reason for examining these past and projected patterns is to help policymakers determine
how best to invest resources to change undesirable trends. This study of the state’s workforce is
designed primarily to provide policy makers with information about the state’s growth path, in order to
help leaders understand what may happen if the economy follows its current trajectory.
In making strategic investments or critical policy choices, leaders can, of course, help dramatically
redirect economic and workforce development trends. In North Carolina, leaders make many of these
strategic choices at the regional and local level without a single statewide vision. Assuming access to
resources that can influence development, this approach is appropriate in a state, such as North
Carolina, with many regional economies bound together by a single political border. Clearly, the
economies of the Piedmont metropolitan areas of Charlotte and Raleigh- Durham are very different from
the Mountain or Coastal regions. Policies that will influence growth and development in these fast-growing
metropolitan economies should differ substantially from those that create opportunity in
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stagnating rural areas. Even so, this report will define the similarities among those sub- state regional
economies, as much as it confirms some of the differences that we expect to find.
In the following pages, the report examines both North Carolina’s labor market demand and supply.
Labor market demand is determined by assessing which industry sectors are growing and what
occupations those industries require. This analysis projects the number of jobs required today and in ten
years to meet the state’s economic demands. It also examines the education and training requirements
demanded by those industries and occupations. Following this analysis of worker demand, the report
explores the labor market supply so as to determine which people are available ( and will likely be
available) to fill the jobs being created in the state’s economy. The focus of the discussion is on
identifying the skills necessary to meet the market’s need for workers.
The study concludes with an analysis of the existing education and training system’s capacity to meet
the demand by adapting the supply of workers to meet those needs. It also offers key findings and
conclusions that will better allow the State’s Workforce Commission to determine appropriate
recommendations for action. In the next section, the report focuses on how and why the state’s
economy has been subdivided in the analysis, and provides a glimpse of what kind of data were used in
this assessment.
Defining Sub- state Units of Analysis
North Carolina possesses a significant amount of economic diversity, and therefore the issues facing
its workforce differ widely across the state. In places like Charlotte and the Research Triangle, firms
require highly- skilled workers to support activities in rapidly growing economic sectors such as financial
services, information technology, and biosciences. While the Charlotte and Research Triangle regions
are two of the nation’s most economically dynamic regions, other parts of the state struggle to face the
challenges of transforming in response to the needs of an increasingly knowledge- driven economy. In
western North Carolina, for instance, industries that once employed many of the region’s workers,
including textiles, apparel and furniture, no longer provide enough viable employment options. Similarly,
in eastern North Carolina, textiles and tobacco no longer drive employment and economic growth. If the
regions lack the competitive advantage to support emerging knowledge- driven sectors, they are seeking
alternative economic drivers, frequently relying on solutions designed to attract tourists or new residents.
However, these new solutions often result in creating consumer service jobs that typically pay workers
less than the jobs being shed from declining industries.
Clearly, assessing these trends at the state- wide level is necessary but not sufficient for
understanding the full range of dynamic change affecting North Carolina. One approach to consider sub-state
differences would be to focus at the individual county level. Of course, county level distinctions are
an important part of the North Carolina culture; counties often tackle problems independently of the state
or one another. However, frequently adjacent counties face many similar political, social, and economic
challenges and could equally benefit from opportunities to collaborate regionally. Consequently, the
study opts to assess relevant patterns and trends at a multi- county level of analysis.
There are several ways to conduct a multi- county analysis – some focus on grouping counties
through adjacent geographies while others focus on grouping counties with similar characteristics. One
approach, for instance, compares the observed economic dynamism and prosperity in the Piedmont with
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the identified poverty and unemployment in the Mountains and along the Coast. This is relevant
because, at that geographic scale, multiple ( and sometimes disparate) challenges face the different parts
of North Carolina.
Another approach recognizes that these adjacent counties may not always share common
challenges. Why, for instance, is Watauga County doing so well economically while surrounding
counties struggle? Why has Durham County not been able to take as much of an advantage of the
success of the Research Triangle Park as have Wake and Orange counties? What has caused the
economic struggles of the Piedmont’s micropolitan areas while nearby metro areas flourish? Why are
several eastern counties, such as Lenoir and Edgecombe, experiencing population declines while nearby
counties enjoy growth?
The conventional wisdom is that the west and east both are suffering economically while the state’s
large metropolitan areas continue to grow. It is important not only to validate this perception, but also to
better appreciate the nuanced challenges facing North Carolina’s industries and workforce in different
parts of the state. Consequently, this report must look beyond the obvious regional breakdowns to find
the key issues that inhibit the state from enjoying more balanced economic development.
After detailed assessments of possible regional configurations, the project team collaborated with
the state Workforce Commission’s Policy Research and Assessment Committee ( PRAC) to identify
several regional distinctions for study. These distinctions focused on the rural- urban nature of the state’s
population as well as the traditional view that the state is composed of three major regions – the Coast,
the Piedmont, and the Mountains. The analysis also recognizes the critical role for counties as well as
the potential role the legislatively defined regional economic partnerships might play in developing
greater demand for labor. Thus the analysis is consciously built on units that respect the partnership
boundaries.
Identifying a Rural- Urban Hierarchy
The state’s urban- rural dichotomy explains some of the differences in economic performance.
Traditionally, North Carolina has been a state of small towns and rural places. Its agrarian culture was
celebrated for generations. The rise of the textile industry in small communities across the state at the
turn of the 20th century marked the initial shift of a large portion of the state’s economy toward
manufacturing. During the past generation, the state’s growth was concentrated in its larger urban
centers. The state may have reached a tipping point with the emergence of three major urban areas with
more than one million people– Charlotte, the Piedmont Triad, and the Research Triangle. About half of
the state’s population now lives in one of these three regions, frequently called the “ Golden Crescent.”
Large cities, small cities, towns, and rural areas all face different kinds of workforce challenges and
opportunities. Figure 1 shows North Carolina’s metropolitan, micropolitan and rural counties. 1 The
definition established by the US Office of Management and Budget identifies metropolitan counties as
those with an urban area of 50,000 people or more. These areas include adjacent counties in which 25
percent or more of the population commutes to the urban center. Micropolitan counties are those with
10,000 to 50,000 people. For the purposes of simplicity, counties that are not classified as either
metropolitan or micropolitan are identified as “ rural counties” in this report. Rural counties are defined as
1 Regional distinctions provided by the US Office of Management and Budget, 2003 and updates; Calculations by CREC based
on US Census Bureau 2005 population estimates.
4
those without an urban center of 10,000 people or more and in which less than 25 percent of the
population commutes to a metropolitan or micropolitan area.
There are many varying definitions in North Carolina for “ rural,” and most of the state’s counties
contain both urban and rural elements. However, the three designations – metropolitan, micropolitan,
and rural – provide a straightforward, useful framework for distinguishing among different types of
counties in the state. The distinctions provide a way to group counties together that may not be
geographically proximate but may be similar in terms of their population density and their relationship to
nearby urban centers.
Roughly 6.2 million people, or 70 percent of all North Carolinians, live in the 40 counties that make up
the state’s officially designated metropolitan areas. Businesses, governments, and nonprofits in the
metropolitan areas offer 3.8 million jobs, about 74 percent of the 5.15 million jobs available.
Approximately 2 million people live in the 31 counties in micropolitan areas. These areas are frequently
built around North Carolina’s “ small town” growth centers and account for almost 970,000 jobs. The
micropolitan areas represent 23 percent of the state’s people, but only 19 percent of the state’s
employment.
Twenty- nine North Carolina counties are defined for this analysis as part of neither the state’s
metropolitan nor micropolitan areas. Unsurprisingly, these counties have relatively few residents and
small employment levels. These rural counties have about 600,000 people and approximately 340,000
jobs, representing 7 percent of the population and 7 percent of the state’s employment.
Most North Carolinians work in the metropolitan areas, and they also earn more on average than in
micropolitan and rural areas. Combined, people in metropolitan counties have projected average
Figure 1
Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
Metropolitan and
Micropolitan Areas
in North Carolina
Metropolitan Area
Micropolitan Area
Rural Area
2005 Population Estimates
Metro Area: 6.2 million
Micro Area: 2.0 million
Rural Area: 0.6 million
* Source: US Census Bureau
* Hickory- Lenoir- Morganton, NC
* Jacksonville, NC
* Raleigh- Cary, NC
* Rocky Mount, NC
* Virginia Beach- Norfolk- Newport News, VA- NC
* Wilmington, NC
* Winston- Salem, NC
* Asheville, NC
* Burlington, NC
* Charlotte- Gastonia- Concord, NC- SC
* Durham, NC
* Fayetteville, NC
* Goldsboro, NC
* Greensboro- High Point, NC
* Greenville, NC
Metropolitan Statistical Areas
* Mount Airy, NC
* New Bern, NC
* North Wilkesboro, NC
* Roanoke Rapids, NC
* Rockingham, NC
* Salisbury, NC
* Sanford, NC
* Shelby, NC
* Southern Pines- Pinehurst, NC
* Statesville- Mooresville, NC
* Thomasville- Lexington, NC
* Washington, NC
* Wilson, NC
* Albemarle, NC
* Boone, NC
* Brevard, NC
* Dunn, NC
* Elizabeth City, NC
* Forest City, NC
* Henderson, NC
* Kill Devil Hills, NC
* Kinston, NC
* Laurinburg, NC
* Lincolnton, NC
* Lumberton, NC
* Morehead City, NC
Micropolitan Statistical Areas
5
earnings2 for 2007 of $ 42,784 which is about $ 3,000 more ( 7 percent higher) than the statewide average
of $ 39,953. Conversely counties in micropolitan and rural counties have below average earnings at
$ 32,836 and $ 27,944 respectively.
Figure 2 shows industry employment in each of North Carolina’s metropolitan and micropolitan
statistical areas. The Charlotte- Gastonia- Concord, NC- SC Metropolitan Statistical Area ( MSA) is the
state’s largest with an estimated 938,000 jobs available in the North Carolina counties. The combined
MSAs of Raleigh- Cary and Durham are roughly the same size with an estimated 926,000 jobs. The two
major metropolitan areas in the Piedmont Triad region — Greensboro- High Point and Winston- Salem —
account for a combined 706,000 employment.
Outside the core metro counties of the Piedmont, each of several regional metro areas, including
Asheville, Jacksonville, Hickory- Morganton- Lenoir and Wilmington, has roughly 100,000 to 200,000 jobs.
The state’s largest micropolitan areas include Thomasville- Lexington, Statesville- Mooresville and New
Bern. Each of these areas has about 70,000 jobs. As the three major metropolitan areas ( Charlotte,
Piedmont Triad, and Research Triangle) continue to grow, it is likely that many micropolitan and small
metropolitan areas will become subsumed into adjacent metro areas as more workers opt to commute to
relatively higher paying jobs found in those large metro areas.
2 Earnings include not only wages and salaries but also other compensation accrued to workers in the form of supplements such
as paid health insurance, day care, transportation, and Social Security taxes, as well as proprietors' income
Figure 2
Source: Regional Dynamics Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
Charlotte- Gastonia-
Concord, NC- SC
Asheville, NC
Hickory- Morganton-
Lenoir, NC
Winston- Salem, NC
Greensboro-
High Point, NC
Burlington, NC
Durham, NC
Raleigh- Cary, NC
Fayetteville, NC
Goldsboro, NC
Jacksonville, NC
Greenville, NC
Rocky Mount, NC
Virginia Beach- Norfolk-
Newport News, VA- NC
Wilmington, NC
Metropolitan Area
Micropolitan Area
50K
200K
600K
Industry Employment
Industry Employment in North Carolina
Metropolitan and Micropolitan Areas ( est. 2007)
* Employment for North Carolina counties only
** Only metropolitan areas identified
6
Defining North Carolina’s Three Primary Geographic Regions
In addition to metropolitan, micropolitan and rural distinctions, this study also explores differences
among the state’s geographic regions. The most traditional way to sub- divide North Carolina is to
examine its three major land regions focused around the Appalachian Mountains, the Piedmont and the
Coastal Plain/ Tidewater areas. While there are conventional methods for assigning these counties to
regions, 3 this study also seeks to align the regional designations with the state’s economic development
partnerships as the foundation for drawing economic distinctions and perhaps later for exploring potential
policy solutions.
Figure 3 illustrates the state’s three primary regions using the partnerships as the basic unit for
grouping counties. The 23 counties of the Advantage West Regional Partnership provide the foundation
for classifying counties as part of the Mountain region. The 37 counties that comprise the three urban
regional partnerships ( the Charlotte, Piedmont Triad, and Research Triangle Regional Partnerships) form
the basis for the Piedmont region. Finally, the 40 counties of the three eastern partnerships ( North
Carolina’s Northeast Region, North Carolina’s Eastern Region and North Carolina’s Southeast Region)
constitute the Coastal region.
It should be noted that using the partnership geographies to divide the state creates some minor
analytical challenges. None of the three primary regions represents a single natural economic area.
Advantage West’s 23 counties encompass an area roughly the size of Maryland and has at least four
3 Dept. of Geography and Earth Sciences, The University of North Carolina at Charlotte, < www. ncatlasrevisited. org>
Figure 3
95
95
40
85
77
26
40
40
85
Miles
0 70
Johnston
Wilson
Clay
Swain
Macon
Transylvania
Polk
Madison
Buncombe
Mc-
Dowell
Mitchell
Watauga Ashe
Alleghany
Wilkes
Burke
Ruther
- ford Cleve
- land
Lincoln
Catawba
Alex-ander
Iredell
Surry Stokes
Yadkin
Davie
Rowan
Cabar
- rus
Mecklenburg Union Anson
Forsyth
David
- son
Rock-ingham
Guilford
Randolph
Stanly Mont-gomery
Richmond
Scotland
Cas-well
Alam
- ance
Chatham
Lee
Moore
Dur
- ham
Wake
Harnett
Hoke
Robeson
Columbus
Brunswick
Bladen
Cumber
- land Sampson
New Hanover
Pender
Duplin
Onslow Carteret
Jones
Lenoir Craven
Gre
- ene
Pitt
Nash
Franklin
Warren
Halifax
North-ampton
Edge-combe
Beaufort Hyde
Tyrrell Dare
Wash-ington
Hertford
Chowan
Gates
Perquimans
Pasquotank
Currituck
Hender
- son
Mountain region
Piedmont region
Coastal region
2005 Population Estimates
Piedmont: 5.3 million
Coast: 2.4 million
Mountains: 1.1 million
* Source: Estimate based on 2000
Census and 2004 data from AGS
Demographics
North Carolina’s Primary Regions
7
economic sub- areas. 4 Likewise, the Coastal region includes ten different economic sub- areas, many
centered on metro and micro areas. The Piedmont region includes three overlapping economic areas
roughly equivalent to the urban partnerships. The map in Figure 4 shows commuting patterns
throughout North Carolina, reflecting the most significant commuting flows. The map clearly illustrates
the interconnections among the Piedmont’s three large metro areas.
In examining the map closely, there are two particular examples where the primary region boundaries
split naturally occurring economic areas, in Hickory and Fayetteville. Part of the Hickory area, largely
included in the Charlotte partnership area, also includes the Advantage West counties of Burke and
Caldwell. A similar division occurs in the southeast where the boundary between the Research Triangle
and the Southeast partnership regions separates the Fayetteville metro area’s Harnett County from
Cumberland County. Consequently, Harnett is assigned to the Piedmont region while Cumberland is
assigned to the Coastal region even though a single labor market unites these two counties. It is also
important to note that a significant flow of workers commute from South Carolina counties near Charlotte
and these workers are critical components of Charlotte’s workforce although North Carolina’s workforce
development organizations and educational institutions may have only a limited role in ensuring that they
are appropriately trained and educated for future jobs.
The Piedmont Region
Each of the three urban partnerships represents a relatively coherent economic region and the
communities within those partnership areas enjoy considerable economic interaction. In examining the
commuting patterns illustrated in Figure 4, it is difficult to identify where one metropolitan area ends and
4 Advantage West Vision Plan
Figure 4
95
1
2
3
4 5
6
7
8
9
12
10
11
95
40
85
77
26
40
40
85
1 Asheville
2 Hickory
3 Charlotte
4 Winston- Salem
5 Greensboro
6 Durham
7 Raleigh
8 Fayetteville
9 Rocky Mount
10 Wilmington
11 Greenville
12 New Bern
40,000+ Commuters
20,000 to 39,999 Commuters
10,000 to 19,999 Commuters
5,000 to 9,999 Commuters
2,500 to 4,999 Commuters
1,500 to 2,499 Commuters
Miles
0 70
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000
North Carolina Inter- county Commuting Patterns
8
another begins. Incorporating the state’s largest urban areas, the Piedmont drives much of North
Carolina’s economy. Roughly 60 percent ( 5.3 million) of the state’s population resides in the region.
About 3.3 million people work in the Piedmont region, representing 64 percent of the state’s workers.
The Piedmont’s average earnings are $ 43,077 per year, exceeding the state average of $ 39,953 by
almost 8 percent. Even though, the regions’ partnerships are relatively inter- connected, their economies
each tend to focus on a different set of activities.
The 12- county Charlotte Regional Partnership includes the Charlotte metropolitan area as well as
several smaller satellite cities. The region’s economy not only includes declining industries like textiles
and furniture, but also advanced and emerging growth segments like financial services and motor sports.
The Piedmont Triad includes the Winston Salem- Greensboro- High Point center, but it also includes a
number of less urbanized rural counties. The Piedmont Triad area, more so than other parts of the
Piedmont region, traditionally relied on mature industries such as furniture, apparel, textiles and tobacco
for its economic base. As a result, the Piedmont Triad’s economy has been slower than the other two
urban regions in making the necessary economic transformations. Similarly, the Research Triangle
region’s center is Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill, but there are a number of outlying rural communities
that also historically relied on textiles, apparel, and tobacco. The Research Triangle’s economic base has
developed so that it now relies heavily on high value- added activities such as biotechnology, information
technology and higher education. Raleigh’s role as the state capital also makes government employment
and related activities a particularly significant component of the region’s economy.
The Coastal Region
Roughly 2.4 million people live and 1.3 million people work in the Coastal region. This represents
about 27 percent of the state’s population and 25 percent of the workforce. The Coastal region’s
average earnings, at $ 35,706 per year, represent only 89 percent of the state average and trail the state
average by more than $ 4,000 annually. Tourism represents an important component of the region’s
economy, building on assets such as the state’s barrier islands and the Atlantic coast. The tourism
industry, however, tends to pay lower than average wages and offers jobs that are typically more
seasonal in nature.
The Coast has also been one of the state’s leading agricultural regions, relying on tobacco, pork and
poultry. Tobacco has historically been one of the region’s leading agricultural products, but livestock
production also employs large numbers of workers. Manufacturing and distribution operations,
particularly along I- 95, offer another source of regional employment. The northeastern part of the region
is especially dependent on tourism and agriculture. The low wages and seasonality of the work are part
of the reason why it is one of North Carolina’s poorest regions.
The region’s significant military presence plays an important role in its economy. About one in nine
workers, or 140,000 people, are employed at one of the Coastal region’s major military installations ( i. e.,
Fort Bragg, Pope Air Force Base, Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, Cherry Point Naval Air Depot, and
Camp Lejeune). The relatively good paying jobs associated with these bases help raise the region’s
average earnings. Anecdotal evidence, based on interviews with military leaders, suggest that while
some retiring military professionals stay in the area upon their retirement, many others leave the area
due to the limited post- military occupational opportunities available for themselves or their spouses. That
9
said, the Coastal region, especially communities near the ocean, is becoming a destination for new
residents seeking second or retirement homes.
The Mountain Region
Of the three main geographic regions, the Mountain region has both the smallest population and the
lowest overall average earnings. The region has slightly more than one million residents and 570,821
jobs. Consequently, the area has 13 percent of the state’s people but only 11 percent of the state’s
employment. Average earnings in the Mountains are $ 31,561 per year, or 79 percent of the state
average. The Asheville metropolitan area is the region’s largest with roughly 400,000 people. Portions of
the Hickory- Morganton- Lenoir metropolitan area located in the region also represent an important urban
hub for the Foothills.
Communities in the Mountains are undergoing a significant economic transformation. Industries such
as textiles and furniture manufacturing historically provided much of the region’s economic base,
particularly in the Foothills area. These industries are in decline, creating economic hardships for workers
and curtailing opportunities for those seeking new careers in the area.
Much like the Coast, tourism is one of the Mountain region’s fastest growing industries.
Unfortunately, the work’s low wages and seasonal nature do not typically translate into economic
prosperity for a large number of people. The area has also proven to be an attractive destination for
retirees and second home buyers. These new residents bring money into the region and have
contributed to a growing demand for jobs in key industries such as residential construction and retail.
State Workforce Demand and Supply
Workforce Demand
This section examines the current industrial and occupational composition of the North Carolina
economy. The goal is to examine detailed geographic differences and long- term projected trends in the
demand for new workers. The research focuses on estimated employment for 2007 and net new
employment between 2007 and 2017 in order to identify future demand trends. The study also examines
relevant geographic differences as well as explores detailed trends in the mix of industries and
occupations.
About the Data
To accomplish the study’s intended goals, data used were developed and provided through the
ReDYN economic forecasting model, published by Regional Dynamics. 5 The analysts use this model in
lieu of data provided by the North Carolina Employment Security Commission ( NCESC), in part, because
the proprietary model defines employment more broadly, projects employment for detailed industries and
occupations through 2017, and estimates employment at the five- digit North American Industry
Classification System ( NAICS) level for all 100 North Carolina counties.
5 Unless otherwise described, employment estimates and projections were developed using an econometric model developed
by Regional Dynamics, an economic forecasting firm. The model was developed by researchers at the University of Georgia for
tax, transportation, and economic planning The base data set used in developing the estimates is the US Bureau of Economic
Analysis with data estimates calibrated using US Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Census Bureau County Business Patterns
( CBP). The ReDYN model includes employment estimates and projections of wage and salaried employment, proprietorships,
military, farm, government, and certain private education institutions.
10
This workforce analysis recognizes the comprehensive definition of employment used by the US
Bureau of Economic Analysis ( BEA). The BEA definition builds on NCESC’s very sound snapshot of
wage and salary employment and adds other kinds of employment not included in the NCESC reports.
Under the US Bureau of Labor Statistics ( BLS)- sponsored national labor market information program,
NCESC reports employment using data from its administrative records created for the unemployment
insurance program. Each quarter, the NCESC does a census of employees and payroll for companies
participating in the program to compare the data against the taxes paid monthly. The Quarterly Census
of Employment and Wages ( QCEW) data collection program, sponsored by BLS, provides monthly
updates based on firm payroll employment and taxes reports and offers the timeliest snapshot of state
employment. Consequently, it is one of the most useful data sources in tracking current NC employment
and wage patterns. NCESC does not, however, typically report information about employment for
proprietors or other enterprises that do not participate in the unemployment insurance program. Even
so, NCESC’s estimates represent about 80 to 85 percent of all employment within nine months of
the initial business report to the government. Furthermore, the proportion of employees represented in
the QCEW report is particularly high in certain sectors— such as manufacturing— but it is somewhat
lower in others like construction, real estate, and government ( especially military employment). NCESC
provides the most vital foundation estimate for determining North Carolina’s employment estimates.
NCESC data is integral to many other data estimates, but the US BEA measures a larger share of the
total employment picture.
Annually, approximately 12 to 18 months after the end of the reporting year, the BEA reports all
employment by industry using a variety of data sources including labor market information provided by
NCESC and its sister agencies in other states, Internal Revenue Service proprietorship tax filings, and a
variety of other data sources to develop the employment and earnings data required for calculating the
national Gross Domestic Product and other BEA data products. In addition to proprietorships, BEA
employment estimates data for farmers and farm workers, railroad workers, military personnel, and
certain government agency employees that do not participate in the unemployment insurance program.
NCESC data is extremely valuable for describing the patterns and challenges facing many traditional
employers. It is also useful in examining large geographic areas or broad industry groupings; however,
one of the most significant drawbacks in using this data for this study’s purposes is that NCESC is
precluded by law from releasing data at sufficient geographic or industry- level detail to meet the needs of
this study. NCESC is legally restricted from disclosing data that could potentially reveal
information about a specific firm. Thus, the publicly available information for certain industries with
particularly large firms or related to county- level employment includes suppressions designed to protect
the confidentiality of reporting firms.
This analysis required constructing multi- county data tables that required detailed data be available
at an individual county level. Data suppressions in NCESC- provided reports are particularly problematic
in obtaining industry detail for most North Carolina counties. Several proprietary enterprises encounter
these challenges on a regular basis and have created algorithms designed to estimate the number of
workers in a specific county and/ or industry where data disclosure issues arise. The data used for this
analysis was derived from one such model.
NCESC also provides very useful and soundly developed employment projections that recognize the
broader employment definitions described earlier. The data available at the time of this analysis included
11
NCESC’s projections from 2002 to 2012. More recent data, based on 2004 employment estimates and
including projections to 2014 were due for release by January 2007. Unfortunately, these NCESC
projections also suffer from the data suppression limitations noted earlier. Furthermore, sub- state
projections are made only at the workforce development board level. Thus, the projections available
were not well aligned with the study’s needs since this analysis was aimed at understanding projected
employment changes at the metropolitan, micropolitan, or rural area level as well as the economic
development partnership level.
The Workforce Commission’s Policy Research and Assessment Committee ( PRAC) and the
consulting team felt that the broader US BEA definition of employment was most appropriate for this
analysis. This decision was based on recent shifts in the North Carolina economy from its traditional
dependence on manufacturing to services, the growing importance of entrepreneurial enterprises as an
employment source, and the critical role of military employment as an economic driver. The PRAC and
consultants also felt that the projection period for this analysis should be at least 10 years into the future
in order to help educational institutions, the State Workforce Commission, and local area workforce
boards consider longer- term strategies for adjusting to the state’s changing economic realities. Finally,
the PRAC and consultants were very interested in examining patterns and projections in detailed
industries and geographies that could not be revealed by NCESC data due to state and federal data
disclosure laws. Thus, the PRAC and consultants opted to utilize a data source that builds on NCESC
data while also making efforts to address the acknowledged data limitations and concerns.
The US BEA does not make industry projections, and the data detail US BEA makes available at the
sub- state level is limited. Thus, the PRAC and consulting team opted to explore the use of at least two
proprietary data sets. Both benchmarked their estimates to the data provided by the US Bureau of
Economic Analysis. Researchers who developed the ReDYN ® model, which provides much of the
projections data used in this report, calibrate their individual county- level industry estimates to BEA
benchmarks using a combination of data sources, including the US Census Bureau County Business
Patterns annual business survey data ( which reports ranges of employment for industries where
disclosure issues arise), North Carolina Employment Security Commission and US Bureau of Labor
Figure 5
Regional Employment and Average Earnings
Region Total Est.
Employment 2007
Est. Net New
Employment 2007- 17
Average Earnings
2007
United States 179,670,548 30,284,512 $ 44,815
North Carolina 5,152,411 698,247 $ 39,953
METRO Area Counties 3,840,922 573,283 $ 42,784
MICRO Area Counties 969,766 91,029 $ 32,836
RURAL Area Counties 341,723 33,934 $ 27,944
NC Mountains 570,821 70,917 $ 31,561
NC Piedmont 3,290,455 473,629 $ 43,075
NC Coast 1,291,135 152,498 $ 35,706
Source: Regional Dynamics
12
Statistics forecasts, as well as data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis’s Regional Economic
Information Systems data.
Figure 5 shows the employment, change in employment, and average earnings for the US, North
Carolina and each of the major sub- regions. Several trends clearly emerge. Most of North Carolina’s
economic growth is expected to occur in metropolitan counties, especially those in the Piedmont region.
Whereas metropolitan areas account for 74 percent of North Carolina’s current employment, they are
expected to create 81 percent of the projected new jobs. Similarly, the Piedmont region accounts for 64
percent of current employment, but during the next decade will contribute 68 percent of North Carolina’s
projected new jobs.
In particular, the Piedmont region’s growth is concentrated in two partnership regions – Charlotte and
the Research Triangle. In 2007, 46 percent of employment will be in these two regions, but 55 percent of
the state’s new job creation will be there. This demonstrates the Triad’s economic weakness relative to
the two other urban regions. While the Triad accounts for 18 percent of state employment in 2007, only
13 percent of new jobs are expected to be created in that region during the next decade. These data are
markedly similar to growth prospects in the state’s micropolitan areas.
As might be expected, earnings also vary throughout the state. This is particularly true for counties in
rural areas where earnings trailed other areas, representing only 70 percent of the state average.
Earnings in the Coastal and Mountain counties also trailed the state average. However, the Coastal area
outpaced the Mountains in average earnings primarily due to the significant military presence in the
Coastal counties.
Industry Job Trends and Projections
The 2007 projected number of jobs in North Carolina is roughly 5.15 million; the state is expected to
add almost 700,000 more jobs by 2017. North Carolina’s economy relies more on government
( especially the military) and manufacturing ( especially textiles, apparel, and furniture) than the rest of the
Figure 6
Percent of Jobs in US and NC by Sector ( Projected 2007 and 2017)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
FIRE
Information
Transportation & Utilities
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Natural Resources and Minerals
Industry Sector
Percent of Total Industry Employment ( Est. 2007)
US
NC
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
FIRE
Information
Transportation & Utilities
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Natural Resources and Minerals
Industry Sector
Percent of Total Industry Employment ( Est. 2017)
US
NC
2007 2017
13
US. Figure 6 shows that whereas manufacturing accounts for 8.7 percent of all jobs nationwide, it
represents 12 percent of all jobs in North Carolina. This reliance on manufacturing is even more
pronounced in the state’s micropolitan and rural areas, where manufacturing employment contributes
14.9 percent and 16.5 percent of all employment, respectively. Manufacturing in the Piedmont Triad
represents 15.6 percent of all employment. According to both the forecasted data provided here and
additional analysis using US Bureau of Economic Analysis data, the military represents about 16 percent
of all government employment in North Carolina while the military represents about 8.5 percent of
government employment nationally.
As North Carolina continues growing, its economy should become increasingly similar to the US
economy. Forecasts suggest that service activities will contribute an increasingly larger proportion to
both the US and the state’s jobs. As illustrated in Figure 7, the state’s estimated professional and
business services employment will likely grow faster than the US average during the coming decade
while growth in the manufacturing and government sectors is slower. In urban locations, the state’s
economy already looks much like the US economy. For instance, the employment share of finance,
insurance and real estate, and professional and business services in the Piedmont region already
surpasses the US share in those service sectors.
Figure 7
Percent of Jobs in NC by Sector ( Est. 2007 and 2017)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
FIRE
Information
Transportation & Utilities
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Natural Resources and Minerals
Industry Sector
Percent of Total Industry Employment
2007
2017
14
Many of these economic trends become clearer when examining the state’s fastest growing
industries. Figure 8 shows the 25 industries that are projected to gain the most net new jobs between
2007 and 2017. 6 These 25 fast growing industries currently account for 39 percent of all North
Carolina’s employment, and 57 percent of all the projected net new employment over the next decade.
These data reflect the economy’s continued shift toward services. Eight of the 25 fastest growing
industries are found in the health and education services sector, and another seven are found in
professional and business services industries. One of every ten net new jobs will be in the temporary
help services or employee leasing industry, reflecting an increasing reliance on part- time and temporary
services as a way to handle short- term cyclical demand for products and services. Twelve of these top
25 industries provide earnings for workers that are less than 80 percent of the state’s overall average.
Only five offer earnings to workers that are 120 percent or higher than the state average.
North Carolina’s economic mainstay during the past generation has been a variety of manufacturing
industries. However, no manufacturing industry is among the state’s 25 fastest growing industries. In
fact, only one manufacturing industry— animal slaughtering and processing — is expected to be among
the state’s 50 fastest growing industries between 2007 and 2017. At the same time, manufacturing
industries are quite prominent among the industries shedding the most jobs. Over the next decade, 21 of
the 25 fastest declining industries in terms of projected employment losses are manufacturing- related.
6 The “ Exporting”, “ Locally- Serving” and “ Requires Import” designations are explained in greater detail in footnote 8 on page 19.
Figure 8
North Carolina’s 25 Fastest Growing Industries ( Est. 2007 and 2017)
Sector Industry Name Employment
2007
Emp Change
07- 17
Avg Earnings
2007 Industry Type
Professional & Business Services Temporary Help Services 130,831 63,589 $ 22,964 Exporting
Government State and Local Government, NEC 336,792 35,388 $ 44,327 Locally- Serving
Professional & Business Services Computer Systems Design and Related Services 46,450 23,531 $ 65,033 Locally- Serving
Government State and Local Government, Education 229,249 23,284 $ 44,379 Locally- Serving
Education & Health Services Offices of Physicians 64,520 21,808 $ 70,086 Locally- Serving
Other Services Religious Organizations 107,698 20,649 $ 18,627 Exporting
Leisure & Hospitality Full- Service Restaurants 136,476 19,226 $ 15,373 Locally- Serving
Education & Health Services General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 135,009 18,063 $ 47,298 Locally- Serving
Leisure & Hospitality Limited- Service Eating Places 126,770 17,096 $ 14,928 Locally- Serving
Education & Health Services Community Care Facilities for the Elderly 29,532 14,600 $ 22,815 Exporting
Professional & Business Services Management Consulting Services 25,240 12,779 $ 62,929 Locally- Serving
Education & Health Services Child Day Care Services 33,813 12,736 $ 17,522 Locally- Serving
Education & Health Services Nursing Care Facilities 51,375 12,208 $ 25,995 Locally- Serving
Education & Health Services Home Health Care Services 29,464 11,801 $ 32,433 Locally- Serving
Wholesale & Retail Trade Supermarkets and Other Grocery ( except
Convenience) Stores 94,035 10,762 $ 26,628 Locally- Serving
Transportation & Utilities General Freight Trucking, Long- Distance 44,486 10,443 $ 39,648 Exporting
Education & Health Services Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools 35,932 9,391 $ 39,108 Locally- Serving
Professional & Business Services Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and
Payroll Services 39,685 8,794 $ 33,275 Locally- Serving
Wholesale & Retail Trade Department Stores 71,552 8,015 $ 27,008 Locally- Serving
Professional & Business Services Management of Companies and Enterprises 68,988 7,820 $ 80,047 Exporting
Leisure & Hospitality Golf Courses and Country Clubs 27,408 7,757 $ 14,140 Exporting
Professional & Business Services Janitorial Services 36,346 7,674 $ 19,278 Locally- Serving
Education & Health Services Offices of Dentists 20,758 7,011 $ 69,969 Locally- Serving
Professional & Business Services Employee Leasing Services 13,116 6,872 $ 27,351 Requires Import
Construction Plumbing, Heating, and Air- Conditioning
Contractors 55,018 6,828 $ 39,257 Exporting
Source: Regional Dynamics forecasts
15
Fourteen of these industries are related to textiles and apparel. Furthermore, industries related to
tobacco ( crop production, tobacco product manufacturing, and tobacco stemming and re- drying) and
furniture ( logging, sawmills and wood preservation) are also projected to decline, as are many
technology- intensive manufacturing sectors ( e. g. semiconductor and other electronic equipment
manufacturing).
The decline in manufacturing has had significant consequences for many North Carolinians. These
industries were typically viewed as paying family- supporting wages for those in the state with relatively
low levels of education. As the twin forces of globalization and technology force industries to change the
way they do business, companies have eliminated thousands of these jobs during the past decade. In
the past four years alone, North Carolina’s economy has shed 72,000 manufacturing jobs, three- quarters
of which have been in textiles, apparel, furniture, and computer electronics ( see Figure 9).
Today, new challenges face a large segment of North Carolina’s workforce. The state’s industries
are creating few jobs that can employ this dislocated workforce without substantial changes in
their skill sets. New jobs in knowledge- intensive industries require workers to have far greater levels of
education than the current average. Industries that can utilize the existing skills of dislocated workers
tend to pay lower wages. In the top 25 industries, those industries that pay less than 80 percent of
average earnings represent 43 percent of the new jobs likely to be created in the next 10 years.
Temporary help services ranks as the fastest growing of these industries. 7 By contrast, only 11 percent
of the new jobs being created among the top 25 industries pay more than 120 percent of the state
average earnings. Overall, the average earnings for these top industries are $ 37,728, about 6 percent
lower than the average earnings for all industries. This suggests that the resulting growth pattern over
the next ten years is likely to continue showing lower than average earnings.
It should be noted that manufacturing’s diminishing role in the North Carolina economy is felt
unevenly throughout the state because some areas are structurally more dependent on manufacturing
than others. For instance, manufacturing accounts for 14.9 percent of employment in micropolitan areas,
and 16.5 percent of employment in rural areas. Even within the state’s thriving Piedmont region, the
Piedmont Triad area remains heavily dependent on manufacturing. Whereas in 2007, manufacturing
accounts for an estimated 13 percent of Charlotte’s employment and 9.5 percent of Research Triangle’s
7 Although it includes a wide variety of activities, the temporary help services industry consists largely of occupations paying below the US
median wage of $ 18.21 per hour, according to the most recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics ( May 2005). The BLS reports that
75.6 percent of temporary help workers are employed in occupations that earn, on average, less than 80 percent of the US median hourly wage.
Only 9.2 percent of temporary help workers are employed in occupations that earn more than 120 percent of the US median wage.
Figure 9:
NC Employment in Selected Manufacturing Industries
North Carolina Employment 2002 2005
Δ Employ,
2002- 05 % Change
Textile and textile product mills 99,091 68,580 - 30,511 - 30.8%
Apparel 35,697 26,426 - 9,271 - 26.0%
Furniture & related products 67,695 59,280 - 8,415 - 12.4%
Computer & electronic products 46,741 39,215 - 7,526 - 16.1%
NC MFG Industries 662,354 590,346 - 72,008 - 10.9%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
16
employment, this sector still represents 15.6 percent of the Piedmont Triad’s total industry employment.
Of course, these manufacturing jobs are not all in the traditional manufacturing industries of tobacco
production, textiles, apparel, and furniture. However, even excluding those industries, the Piedmont
Triad still has a greater proportion of manufacturing- related employment than any other area in the state.
Structurally, the Piedmont Triad’s economic sectoral composition closely resembles many of the state’s
micropolitan areas, and not surprisingly the area is enduring many of the same transitional challenges as
smaller manufacturing- dependent communities.
Appendix 2 lists North Carolina’s 200 fastest growing industries. Some of these industries have a
higher concentration of employees in North Carolina than nationally. 8 These highly concentrated
industries are said to have enough workers to produce more than enough of their goods or services to
serve the state’s needs so it is expected that they export beyond the state boundaries. These “ exporting”
industries are particularly interesting for economic development purposes because their relatively high
concentration is a sign that the state may have a competitive advantage in attracting and retaining
companies in those economic sectors. In selling their goods or services outside the state, exporting
industries bring new money into the state.
North Carolina’s exporting industries include those related to animal slaughtering and processing, as
well as pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing. Slightly more than 26 percent of the 2007 projected
jobs in the top 200 industries are categorized as export- oriented. This group is expected to grow faster
than other parts of the economy, accounting for 29 percent of the new jobs created during the next
decade. Exporting oriented industries offer above average earnings at $ 43,029, but the fastest growing
exporting industries offer average earnings of only $ 37,427. Most of this discrepancy is driven by the
anticipated growth in temporary help services, religious organizations, and elderly care facilities.
Other industries leak wealth because so few workers are involved in them that state businesses and
consumers are expected to have to “ import” the industry’s goods or services from elsewhere. Economic
developers are concerned about these industries because they represent potential increased economic
activity that could improve the competitiveness of local firms or serve local businesses or residents.
Industries that seem to be particularly underdeveloped in North Carolina include employee leasing
services; outpatient care centers; vocational rehabilitation services; data processing services; services
for the elderly and persons with disabilities; machinery equipment rental; and telephone call centers.
These industries are growing at some of the fastest rates, sometimes to meet the growing demand of the
local population as well as to capture leakages from the state’s economy. These and similar industries
account for about 3 percent of the top 200 jobs, but will represent about 5 percent of the new jobs being
created during the next decade. On average, these jobs are projected to pay about $ 45,735 in 2007
estimated earnings, but the fastest growing industries tend to pay much lower with average earnings
expected to be $ 36,127.
A third category of industry, designated as “ locally serving,” generates employment as a share of the
total economy at a ratio that resembles the national share. Locally serving industries create employment,
but they are more apt to capture existing money recycling through the economy than to bring new money
8 These industry concentrations are frequently referred to as “ location quotients” or LQs. LQs represent a ratio of each North Carolina industry
as a share of the state’s employment compared with a similar ratio of that same industry’s national employment total as a share of all US
employment. An LQ of 1.2 or higher was used to designate “ exporting” industries and an LQ of 0.6 was used to designate “ requires importing”
industries. Industries with LQs between 0.6 and 1.2 represent the group identified as “ locally serving.” Each of the top 200 industries is
categorized in Appendix 1.
17
into the state. In addition, their growth tends to be most closely correlated to population growth.
Activities such as healthcare and retail are frequently considered locally serving industries. However, on
occasions, these sectors may differ in certain communities. For instance, large factory outlet malls or
retail targeted to tourists such as Concord Mills may attract shopping dollars from people who live
outside the region. Specialized healthcare facilities or advanced hospitals like the Duke or UNC medical
centers may provide very specialized care and therefore attract patients from across the nation. On the
whole, however, these examples represent exceptions to the norm.
Locally serving industries account for 71 percent of all jobs in the top 200 industries, but only about
two- thirds of the jobs being created during the next decade. These industries are sizable and many are
growing at a moderate pace, driven by the state’s population growth rather than by any comparative
economic advantage. Not surprisingly, the state’s locally serving industries tend to grow most and
fastest where the population is large and growing fastest— mainly the metropolitan areas and the
Piedmont region. Overall, average earnings for locally serving industries are slightly below average at a
projected $ 38,077 for 2007.
This approach to categorizing the industries of the economy into three broad areas is useful as a way
to help economic and workforce developers better understand their respective differences. From the
workforce perspective, the interest is in finding a large number of jobs that require moderate skills or
moderate training to improve the skills of the workforce, no matter the industry. Thus, their efforts
frequently focus on supporting locally serving industries where the number of jobs being created is
higher, and the pay for new jobs is expected to be slightly higher. From the economic development
perspective, the efforts focus on identifying the largest and best paying sectors that export goods and
services or that replace goods and services currently being imported into the state. The job numbers
associated with these industries may well be relatively small because the focus is on new wealth creation
or retention. Due to their differing goals, the industries and occupations of interest to economic and
workforce developers are not always the same.
Occupational Employment Trends and Projections
The occupational data mirror many of the trends illustrated in the industry data. Notably, the
projections show strong growth in healthcare and services- related occupations and steep declines in the
occupations related to traditional manufacturing industries such as textiles and apparel. These data also
show a strong relationship between educational attainment and earnings. To demonstrate these trends,
we organized the occupational data according to the 11 different categories used by the US Bureau of
Labor Statistics ( BLS). These categories identify the most common educational attainment requirements
for each of several hundred occupations. 9 Seven of these categories involve formalized postsecondary
education, while the other four categories are based on work experience and on- the- job training ( OJT).
In some cases, high school completion is a pre- requisite for training while in others high school
completion is not required to receive training. For our purposes, however, eleven categories were too
many. Consequently, we collapsed the 11 BLS categories into six different ‘ education bands’ designed
to allow us to make comparisons with available labor supply categorizations made by the Census
Bureau. Census gathers data on educational attainment for potential workers among citizens age 25
and older. The bands used for analyzing occupational trends and projections are:
9 For more detail about these 11 occupational education requirements see: http:// www. bls. gov/ emp/ optd/ optd004. pdf.
18
• Band 1: Advanced Degree — Occupations requiring advanced degrees ( e. g., Ph. D., MA/ MS) or
professional degrees ( e. g., MD, JD)
• Band 2: Four- year College Degree — Occupations requiring either a baccalaureate degree or a
bachelor’s degree plus experience
• Band 3: Tech- Some Post — Occupations requiring either an associate degree or some kind of
postsecondary vocational award or certification as well as those that typically require some college but may
not require a degree
• Band 4: High School Diploma/ GED and Some Experience — Occupations requiring at least a high
school diploma or a general educational development ( GED) degree and significant work experience and
more than a year of on- the- job training ( OJT)
• Band 5: High School Diploma/ GED Entry Level — Occupations requiring at least a high school diploma
or GED plus moderate- term OJT ( typically more than one month, but less than one year)
• Band 6: Below GED — Occupations requiring short- term OJT ( less than one month); few of these
occupations require a high school diploma
The first two bands are considered the best, high wage jobs. These bands include the knowledge-intensive
jobs associated with an economy increasingly driven by high- end business services.
Conversely, the jobs in the last band ‘ Below GED’ are those that require little skill or training and often
pay well below average. Therefore, workers often face difficulty earning a family- sustaining wage while
working one of these jobs.
Bands 4 and 5— GED- Some Experience and GED Entry Level— have traditionally been the
occupations that were the backbone of North Carolina’s workforce. These ‘ Traditional Middle Jobs’
typically provided decent wages for people with relatively limited levels of educational attainment.
Unfortunately, many of these occupations are found in mature industries such as textiles, apparel and
furniture manufacturing. They continue to be important to the state, but globalization and technological
changes have reduced the demand for jobs in these occupations significantly.
Consequently, growth is occurring rapidly among the higher end jobs and those in occupations in
Band 3. Combined, the occupations in Band 3 and 4 constitute what one might describe as the ’ New
Middle Jobs.’ These occupations increasingly require advanced skills so workers need more training to
attain and keep their jobs. For instance, the growing prevalence of advanced manufacturing techniques
demands more technology skills and knowledge for people in production occupations. Similarly, the use
of just- in- time delivery systems requires workers in logistics and distribution occupations to increase their
math and IT skills. New middle jobs requires workers who may be currently employed in traditional
middle jobs to invest in significant up- skilling to retain their employment or to move into the new middle
jobs. Those that do not make the investment or whose companies do not adapt, run the risk of falling
behind. Increasingly, those that do not adapt are losing their jobs and settling for re- employment
opportunities in one of the low skill occupations in Band 6— Below GED.
Key Occupations by Employment Band
By allocating occupations to each of these six bands, workforce professionals can project which
types of occupations will need to be filled, the level of compensation likely to be available, and the
number of workers that will be required over the next ten years at each educational level. Figure 10
provides a snapshot summary of the proportion of the state and national workforce found in occupations
at each of these educational bands.
19
About 34 percent of the jobs currently available in North Carolina do not require a high school
diploma, slightly below the average for the US job market. These jobs typically require a month or less of
on- the- job training. However, when compared with the US, a larger share of North Carolina jobs, about
25 percent, require between one month and one- year of training and typically demand a high school
degree or equivalent. Unfortunately, these jobs are concentrated in industries and occupations that are
being squeezed by globalization and technological change. Skill requirements are increasing for the jobs
in these occupations. Among those occupations projected to increase, employers are also demanding
more education and training from their workers. Examining the occupational data through the lens of
these education bands reveals several key trends. Trends for each of these educational bands and
examples of key occupations in each band are highlighted below.
Advanced Degree Occupations
Many of the fastest growing occupations require advanced degrees and reward workers with high
pay. Lawyers, post- secondary health specialties teachers, and pharmacists are among the fastest
growing occupations in this education band, and all have average earnings over $ 100,000 annually.
Clergy is another fast growing occupation in this education band, but though it pays less—$ 47,704 in
average annual earnings— it is still 20 percent higher than the state average earnings.
Four- Year Degree Occupations
Almost one in four new jobs projected to be created in North Carolina over the next ten years will
require workers to have at least a four- year degree. The fastest growing occupations that require a
bachelor’s degree include general and operations managers, elementary school teachers, business
operations specialists, accountants and auditors and computer software engineers. Much like other
occupations requiring an advanced degree, most of these jobs offer compensation well above the state
Figure 10
US and NC Employment by Required Education ( est. 2007)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Advanced
Degree
4- year College
Degree
Tech- Some Post GED Some
Experience
GED/ Entry Below GED
Education Band
Percent of Total Employment ( 2007)
USA
NC
Source: Regional Dynamics forecasts
20
average. Although the growth of Charlotte’s financial sector adds to the number of accountants and
auditors and Research Triangle’s information technology industry boosts the number of software
engineers, employment growth for occupations like managers and teachers will depend on the state’s
continued population growth.
Technical Degree and Some Post- Secondary Education Degree Occupations
Given the healthcare industry’s rapid growth, it should surprise no one that many of the fastest
growing occupations in this education band relate to that industry. For instance, Registered Nurses
( RNs) represent the fastest growing occupational category among those requiring at least a two- year
degree or some kind of postsecondary vocational award. 10 Currently, the state employs an estimated
90,916 RNs and will need to add another 24,308 over the next decade to meet its projected demand. To
put this in context, these forecasts suggest that registered nurses will account for 3.5 percent of the
state’s net new jobs between 2007 and 2017. With average earnings of $ 61,347, RNs are also one of
the best paying occupations within this education band. The growing demand for healthcare workers
includes a call for new RNs and Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses ( LPN/ LVNs). There
are currently an estimated 20,147 LPN/ LVNs working in the state, with a demand for 4,430 more
LPN/ LVNs over the next decade.
Healthcare- related occupations are not the only fast growing occupations in this education band. In
addition to health care workers, North Carolina will need more than 13,000 new preschool teachers. The
state will also require more than 5,300 net new computer support specialists. It will also require roughly
5,300 automotive service technicians and mechanics and 2,200 bus and truck mechanics and diesel
engine specialists. Moreover, there will be a growing demand for many workers— such as electrical and
electronic engineering technicians-- necessary to support the state’s increasingly sophisticated
manufacturing industry. These occupations represent a significant component of the state’s new middle
jobs.
High School Diploma/ GED and Some Experience
The occupations within the three education bands described above all require workers to possess
some kind of postsecondary training. The next three education bands require varying degrees of work-related
experience and on- the- job training ( OJT). The fastest growing occupations that fall in this
“ GED/ Some Experience” education band include team- supervisor or skilled- trades occupations. Four of
the six fastest growing occupations in this education band are supervisors and managers in areas such
as construction, retail, food preparation, and maintenance. Construction trades supervisors ( at an
average of $ 53,210 in 2007) earn nearly two- thirds more than food service supervisors ( at an average of
$ 31,652). In addition, two other fast growing occupations are carpenters and electricians. The state will
need an estimated 6,428 net new carpenters and 3,688 net new electricians over the next decade.
These trades occupations typically require long- term work experience and they represent, much like the
jobs requiring a 2- year degree, a large segment of the state’s new middle jobs. The workers in these
occupations are vital for the state to maintain its current pace of growth as well as preserving many
workers’ standard of living. That said, this band also includes many of the fastest declining occupations,
10 This represents the minimum degree required for many nursing positions. According to a 2005 US Bureau of Labor Statistics
survey, 58% of nurses aged 25- 44 have a bachelor’s degree or higher. In addition, many employers are increasingly requiring
four- year nursing degrees of their job applicants.
21
and most are expected to continue their decline into the next ten years. Corresponding with declines in
the state’s textile industry, one occupation alone – textile knitting and weaving machine setters,
operators, and tenders – is projected to lose another 38,000 jobs in the next ten years.
High School Diploma/ GED Entry Level
Unlike the majority of the occupations described above, most of the occupations falling within the
GED/ Entry Level education band pay below the state average earnings. One notable exception is heavy
and tractor- trailer truck drivers. North Carolina now has an estimated 78,832 truck drivers and will need
another 19,029 net new truck drivers over the next ten years. The average earnings for truck drivers are
$ 40,659 per year, roughly $ 1,000 more than the state average. Other fast growing occupations in this
educational band include customer service representatives, general installation and repair workers, and
team assemblers. In fact, team assemblers comprise the state’s fastest growing production- related
occupation, as represented by the increased hiring for major facilities like Dell in the Triad area. Not
surprisingly, certain occupations within the “ High School/ GED Entry- Level” education occupation band
are projected to decline. North Carolina manufacturers are expected to shed another 56,000 of the
155,000 remaining machine operator and tender jobs in the textile and apparel industries during the next
ten years.
Below GED Occupations
Occupations within the “ Below GED” education band are among the state’s fastest growing. Many of
these jobs are found in retail occupations, where the state will add roughly 25,000 net new salespersons
between 2007 and 2017. Food service employees are also high growth occupations. Healthcare
employment growth will also be responsible for generating a large number of new low- skill jobs. For
instance, the state will add approximately 21,150 home health aides and 13,115 nursing aides, orderlies,
and attendants over the next decade. There are also several occupations in this education band that are
expected to decline, again related to losses in the manufacturing sector. The anticipated losses in these
occupations are not nearly as dramatic as the textiles- related losses anticipated in the two bands
discussed earlier. Instead, occupations such as utility meter readers or order clerks are losing jobs as a
direct result of automation.
In general, the majority of America’s and North Carolina’s jobs can be found in the last two
educational bands (“ High School/ GED Entry- Level” and “ Below GED” occupations), but a growing
number of jobs require formal college experience or long- term job training. The greatest job losses are
occurring among jobs that do not require formal college education. When compared with the United
States, North Carolina has a higher concentration of its workforce in these occupations. The evidence
suggests that new jobs being created are more likely to require higher education and will demand more
from their workers in terms of education levels. Appendix 3 provides more detail about the fastest
growing and declining occupations.
22
Occupational Trends by Employment Band
An examination of these education bands at a greater level of aggregation begins to reveal some
important issues facing the changing nature of North Carolina’s workforce. Figure 11 compares the
education requirements for projected new jobs being created during the next decade in both North
Carolina and the United States. One key pattern that emerges is that a smaller proportion of North
Carolina’s jobs are being created in occupations that require a post- secondary degree than in the overall
US job market. Nationally, 28.6 percent of all jobs require workers to have at least a two- year college
degree, but in North Carolina, only 23.6 percent of all jobs require this level of education. Conversely,
North Carolina has a greater proportion of jobs that require significant OJT. Whereas 35 percent of all
jobs nationally require at least a GED and some experience, for North Carolina that figure is 41 percent.
These ‘ middle jobs’ are often found in production or skilled trades occupations, many of which are
serving the manufacturing sector. These jobs have traditionally represented the backbone of North
Carolina’s employment.
As noted earlier, the data show that manufacturing- related occupations will continue growing more
slowly ( if at all) than the rest of the economy and will decrease as a percentage of total employment. This
trend will continue to affect the state’s occupational profile significantly as more jobs require post-secondary
education and many of those who do not have technical skills slip into the only jobs they will
be able to do — lower wage, lower skill jobs. As shown earlier in Figure 11, nationally there will be a
shift towards occupations requiring more skills and training. There will be fewer ‘ middle jobs’ and a slight
increase in the number of low- skill jobs. North Carolina’s middle jobs associated with manufacturing are
disappearing quickly. In their place, the projections show an increase both in the number of jobs requiring
Figure 11
US and NC Net New Jobs by Required Education ( Estimated Change 2007- 2017)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Advanced
Degree
4- year College
Degree
Tech- Some Post GED Some
Experience
GED/ Entry Below GED
Education Band
Percent of Total New Employment ( 2007- 17)
USA
NC
‘ Disappearing’
Traditional Middle Jobs
‘ New Middle’
Jobs
NC Net New Jobs Total = 700K Source: Regional Dynamics forecasts
Note: Gray areas indicate 2007 proportion of NC employment within the traditional middle educational bands.
23
post- secondary degrees and those lower paying jobs that require just short term OJT.
The projected new employment will place a growing premium on higher education. In 2007, roughly
17 percent of North Carolina’s jobs are expected to require workers to possess at least a bachelor’s
degree; nationally, that figure is 20 percent. In the coming decade, 26 percent of all new US jobs will
need workers with at least a bachelor’s degree while 25 percent of North Carolina’s new jobs will require
a bachelor’s degree. Similar trends hold true for jobs requiring a two- year degree or postsecondary
vocational training. Nationally, an estimated 8.4 percent of the workforce will be in occupations requiring
an associate’s degree or technical training in 2007, but in North Carolina that share is slightly lower at 7.7
percent. However, during the next ten years, 13.1 percent of the new jobs created in North Carolina will
require an associate’s degree compared to 11.1 percent nationally. For North Carolina, this requires an
increase of almost 90,000 net new jobs in this one education band. Given these projections, the state’s
community colleges will play a vital role in preparing workers for future jobs.
While North Carolina’s ongoing economic transformation will require more knowledge intensive jobs,
these economic shifts also are expected to increase the state’s share of jobs that require low skills and
offer low wages. Nationally, occupations requiring short- term OJT will account for 36 percent of US
employment in 2007, but only 34 percent of new jobs between 2007 and 2017. Similarly, these low- skill
occupations represent 34 percent of North Carolina’s 2007 jobs, but will constitute more than 40 percent
of the state’s projected new employment created between 2007 and 2017. While nationally, the share of
low skill jobs will decline slightly, North Carolina’s current industry mix suggests that it will actually
demand MORE low skill workers as a share of total employment, working to drive down average
earnings relative to the US average.
The jobs losses among traditional middle jobs and the continued growth in high- end and low-skill
occupations are creating an increasingly polarized workforce. This shift is occurring nationally,
but the patterns are more pronounced in North Carolina. As companies continue to shed many traditional
semi- skilled and low- skilled “ middle jobs,” there will be fewer opportunities for low- skilled workers to gain
upward mobility. This polarization becomes readily apparent when examining the average estimated
earnings for each education band. Figure 12 shows that the returns to individuals on their education can
be significant. North Carolina’s average earnings in occupations that require a four- year degree is
$ 77,005. For those workers in occupations requiring an advanced degree, the average earnings are
$ 83,785.
Figure 12
NC Net New Jobs and Earnings by Required Education ( Est. 2007 and 2017)
Educational Band Emp 2007
Net New Jobs
( 07- 17)
Average Earnings
2007
% Total Emp
( 2007)
% New Jobs
( 07- 17)
Advanced Degree 160,572 36,560 $ 83,785 3.2% 5.3%
4- year College Degree 687,536 134,808 $ 77,005 13.7% 19.7%
Tech- Some Post 386,614 89,452 $ 46,774 7.7% 13.1%
GED Some Experience 801,703 58,980 $ 42,952 15.9% 8.6%
GED/ Entry 1,263,563 88,085 $ 34,123 25.1% 12.9%
Below GED 1,732,747 276,598 $ 24,405 34.4% 40.4%
Total 5,032,734 684,484 $ 40,598 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Regional Dynamics
North Carolina
24
Occupations requiring a two- year degree or long- term OJT pay above average wages, indicating a
payoff from investment in education and training. These above average earnings also demonstrate the
importance of moving people from the traditional middle jobs into the new middle jobs. Occupations
requiring two- year degrees have average earnings of $ 46,774, and those requiring long- term OJT pay
$ 42,952 per year. However, the majority ( roughly 60 percent) of North Carolina’s jobs continue to be in
occupations that require moderate or short- term training and pay below average wages. For the large
share of North Carolinians with little more than short- term OJT, the average earnings— at $ 24,405 per
year— are only 60 percent of the state average.
Regional Differences by Education Band
Within the state, several key regional differences emerge. Most of the new jobs created over the next
decade will be in the state’s more urban regions. Metropolitan counties account for 74 percent of the
projected employment in 2007. More importantly, these counties are expected to be the location of 81
percent of all the projected new jobs created between 2007 and 2017. Meanwhile, micropolitan counties
represent about 19 percent of total employment and only 14 percent of new jobs being created during
the next decade. The remaining rural counties represent about 7 percent of total statewide employment,
but only 5 percent projected new employment growth in the state. While the educational requirements for
occupations in the state’s metropolitan areas run close to the state averages, the counties in the rural
and micropolitan areas differ significantly.
Figure 13 illustrates the current workforce composition in the state’s metro, micro and rural areas by
education band. The micropolitan and rural areas have traditionally relied on employment in the
manufacturing sectors so the traditional middle jobs ( i. e., occupations that require GED/ Some
Figure 13
Metro, Micro and Rural Jobs by Required Education ( Est. 2007)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Advanced
Degree
4- year College
Degree
Tech- Some Post GED Some
Experience
GED/ Entry Below GED
Education Band
Percent of TOTAL Employment ( 2007)
Metro
Micro
Rural 2007
Source: Regional Dynamics forecasts
25
Experience and GED/ Entry) are more predominant than in the metro areas. Higher end occupations are
somewhat more concentrated in the metropolitan areas.
Figure 14 illustrates the educational requirements of occupations that will create the most new jobs
during the next decade. The percentage of traditional middle jobs in all three areas ( metro, micro, and
rural) will decline significantly as a share of total employment. This decline is most notable in the state’s
micropolitan and rural areas. The number of low- wage, low- skill jobs will grow rapidly at the same time
that more jobs will require two- and four- year college degrees. During the next decade, almost 50
percent of the new jobs created in micropolitan and rural areas will require only short- term OJT and
those projected new jobs come with pay well below the state average. Average earnings for these low-skill
jobs are only about half ( 51 percent) of the overall average earnings for workers in micropolitan
areas and below half ( 45 percent) of average earnings for workers statewide. Clearly, the growth of
these jobs will have significant consequences for the economic well- being of the citizens in the state’s
more rural areas.
Examining the state’s geographic regions reveals additional differences in the demand for educated
and trained workers. Figure 15 and 16 illustrate the current workforce composition in the Mountain,
Piedmont and Coastal regions by education band as well as the educational requirements for the
projected new jobs created between 2007 and 2017. The Piedmont region more closely resembles the
state and national averages than does the Coastal and Mountain regions. As might be expected, the
Research Triangle has a higher proportion of jobs requiring a four- year degree. While roughly 16
percent of all jobs in North Carolina in 2007 will require at least a bachelor’s degree, more than 20
percent of the jobs in the Research Triangle require similar qualifications.
Figure 14
Metro, Micro and Rural Net New Jobs by Required Education ( Est. 2007 and 2017)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Advanced
Degree
4- year College
Degree
Tech- Some Post GED Some
Experience
GED/ Entry Below GED
Education Bands
Percent of NET NEW Employment ( 2007- 17)
Metro
Micro
Rural
Net New Jobs,
2007- 2017
Source: Regional Dynamics forecasts
26
However, the state’s golden crescent has a weak middle: the education requirement for employment
and new employment growth in the Piedmont Triad more closely resembles the state’s micropolitan and
rural areas. More so than the Charlotte or Research Triangle regions, the Piedmont Triad has been more
dependent on mature manufacturing industries like textiles, tobacco, and furniture. As these industries
have declined, so too has the proportion of middle jobs available to lower- skilled workers. Workers
Figure 15
Mountain, Piedmont and Coastal Region Employment by Required Education ( Est. 2007)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Advanced
Degree
4- year College
Degree
Tech- Some Post GED Some
Experience
GED/ Entry Below GED
Education Band
Percent of TOTAL Employment ( 2007)
Mountains
Piedmont
Coast 2007
Source: Regional Dynamics forecasts
Figure 16
Mountain, Piedmont and Coastal Region Net New Jobs by Required Education, ( Est. 2007 and 2017)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Advanced
Degree
4- year College
Degree
Tech- Some Post GED Some
Experience
GED/ Entry Below GED
Education Band
Percent of NET NEW Employment ( 2007- 17)
Mountains
Piedmont
Coast
Net New Jobs,
2007- 2017
Source: Regional Dynamics forecasts
27
dislocated from jobs in these industries and occupations that have not been prepared to move toward
higher skill employment are left with only lower skill, lower paying jobs as the only employment
alternative. Moreover, these jobs are available because so many of the new jobs in the Piedmont Triad
are being created in low- skill, low- wage occupations. To illustrate, almost 46 percent of the new jobs
created in the Piedmont Triad region will require no more than short- term on- the- job training. This
certainly represents a recipe for a vicious cycle in which low skill job creation begets the creation of even
more low skill jobs.
Although slightly more skewed toward lower wages and lower skilled jobs, the Coastal region also
closely resembles the state and national trends. Some parts of the Coastal region are struggling more
than others. For example, very much like Piedmont Triad and the state’s micropolitan regions, 45
percent of the new jobs created in the Coastal area will require just short- term OJT. Offsetting this trend,
the southern part of the Coastal region benefits from a significant military presence that buoys the
economy and raises the area’s average earnings.
The Mountain’s job creation trends closely resemble the trends found in the state’s rural areas. The
region’s economy was once dominated by manufacturing jobs in textiles and furniture, but jobs in many
manufacturing- related occupations are disappearing rapidly. As a result, the relatively high proportion of
middle jobs is diminishing and many of those workers now must accept the growing number of low- skill,
low wage jobs being created. More than 44 percent of projected new Mountain- area jobs created during
the next decade will require only short- term OJT.
Summary of Key Demand Analysis
Jobs are currently concentrating in the state’s urban areas, especially in the Piedmont metro areas of
Charlotte, the Triad, and the Triangle. While 70 percent of people live in metro North Carolina, 74
percent of the state’s jobs are found there. Furthermore, the trend is expected to continue with 81
percent of new jobs located in the state’s metro areas.
Not only are most jobs located in the metro areas, but also most good jobs are located there as well.
Average earnings are nearly $ 10,000 ( or 30 percent) higher in metro areas than micro areas and nearly
$ 15,000 ( or more than 50 percent) higher in metro areas than in rural areas. This is due in part to higher
wages offered but also to the mix of emerging new job opportunities available at higher skills. It should
come as no surprise that the state’s metropolitan counties drive economic and job growth.
The Piedmont region, which is made up of the state’s three largest metro areas, represents the core
of that job growth. It represents 64 percent of the state’s population and 68 percent of its workforce.
Average earnings in the area are slightly higher than the overall average for the state’s metropolitan
areas. The wage differential between the Coastal and Mountain regions is significant, but that difference
would probably be even greater without 140,000 people working in the Coastal region’s military
installations.
The state’s employment is expected to grow by 14 percent during the next decade. More than half of
that employment growth is anticipated among the 25 fastest growing industries. Fifteen of those
industries are in healthcare, education, and professional and business services. Only a few of these
industries pay significantly higher than average, and the average earnings of the fastest growing
industries is about 6 percent below the current average earnings. Given current employment projections,
28
average earnings are likely to decline in real terms during the next ten years unless the state is able to
create a significant shift in the mix of jobs available.
The reason that average earnings are likely to decline is that the state is creating low- wage,
low- skill jobs at a faster pace than it is creating higher paying, high skill jobs. Four of ten new jobs
being created during the next decade will not require a high school degree, increasing from the current
job mix ( in which 36 percent require only short- term on- the- job training). This increased number of low
skill jobs is significantly higher than the US trends in low skill job creation. The problem is further
exacerbated because the proportion of jobs requiring a minimum two- year degree is increasing at a
faster rate in North Carolina than in the US as a whole. The bifurcation of the job market means that
employers seeking increasingly skilled workers will have fewer job opportunities for workers that are high
school drop- outs and that once could find employment in the state’s factories and farms. These trends
are intensified in the state’s lagging areas ( e. g., micropolitan and rural areas as well as in the Mountain
and Coast regions) where relatively fewer employment opportunities will be available. Thus, the
projected new employment trends will create a demand for workers with post- secondary education and
training, and the wage gap between those who have an education and those who do not could potentially
deepen the social, political, and economic challenges facing the state.
Workforce Supply
The previous section provided an overview of the demand for workers, based on the state’s current
mix of industries and occupations as well as the projected future mix of industries and occupations. This
analysis includes a summary of the key occupations to be filled. The following section examines the
supply of potential workers. Then, the report looks at the population and demographic shifts anticipated
in the coming decade. The study also examines the current and potential workforce to better understand
the state’s existing skill sets and challenges.
Demographic Analysis
Population Growth
The amount, rate, and patterns of population growth in North Carolina can significantly affect the
state’s economy as well as its needs for infrastructure, services, and supportive social institutions. From
1990 to 2000, the population increased by 21 percent ( or 2 percent annually), making it the United
States’ 9th fastest growing state. The 1990s saw an increase of 1.4 million North Carolinians. While the
growth rate slowed during the early 2000s to 1.5 percent annually, the state maintained its 9th place
ranking and continued adding people at a rate nearly 50 percent faster than the nation. Between 2000
and 2007, the state population increased by roughly 800,000 and is projected to increase by another 1.4
percent annually or 900,000 in the decade to come.
Looking ahead, the state’s population growth is expected to be far from uniform. Between 2007 and
2017, the Piedmont region will drive much of the growth, increasing by 13.5 percent as illustrated in
Figure 17. Population increases in the Research Triangle and Charlotte areas are growing fastest of all
seven partnership regions. The Coastal and Mountain regions are expected to lag considerable behind
the state and Piedmont region, adding 4.7 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, more people.
29
Populations grow or shrink as a result of natural increase ( births minus deaths) combined with shifts
in net migration ( people moving into the state minus people moving out of it). From 1995 to 2000, North
Carolina had the fourth highest rate of net domestic in- migration behind Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.
The total net migration to North Carolina was 337,900 between 1995 and 2000, and an estimated
389,000 more people moved to the state between 2000 and 2005.
Migration came from both the Northeast and the South with states in those regions contributing most
of the 919,000 new residents to North Carolina. There were nearly equal numbers from New York and
Florida, and smaller numbers from California, South Carolina, and Virginia. These new residents tended
to settle in the state’s cities as illustrated in Figure 18. Between 2000 and 2005, the Piedmont region
added a net of 311,000 residents as a result of in- migration. As Figure 19 illustrates, a recent Census
Bureau study indicated that the two metropolitan areas, Charlotte and Raleigh- Durham, ( and especially
Wake and Mecklenberg Counties) were more likely to attract new young, single, and educated residents
– a critical group of skilled workers. 11
11 US Census Bureau, “ Migration for the Young, Single, and College Educated for the United States, Regions, States, and
Metropolitan Areas: 2000,” ( PHC- T- 34), April 2004. The young are those who were aged 25 to 39 in 2000; the single are those
who were never married, or were widowed or divorced in 2000; and college educated are those people who had at least a
bachelor's degree in 2000.
Figure 17
Population Growth Projections, 2007 to 2017
3.9%
13.5%
4.7%
12.3%
6.5%
4.7%
3.9%
14.5%
2.3%
4.4%
7.3%
17.5%
7.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Mountains
Piedmont
Coastal
Metro
Micro
Rural
Advantage West
Charlotte
Eastern Region
Northeast
Piedmont Triad
Research Triangle
Southeast
Source: AGS Demographics
Projected Growth
North Carolina Growth Rate= 10.2%
30
The moderate growth that occurred in the Mountain region is almost solely due to in- migration, but of
a different kind. From 2000 to 2005, 93 percent of the region’s population growth was due to existing
North Carolina residents moving into the area. The in- migration was to the Asheville metropolitan area’s
two largest counties— Buncombe and Henderson. Although the Asheville MSA was also the only metro
area outside the Piedmont region to add young, single and educated people through in- migration
between 1995 and 2000, most of Asheville’s increase was due to the influx of retirees. Without the
positive net migration to the Asheville MSA, the Mountain region actually runs the risk of population
decline.
Figure 18
Source: US Census Bureau Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
Net Migration in North Carolina Counties
( 1995- 2000)
Counties with positive net new migration
Counties with negative net new migration
* Circles shown only for counties with positive or
negative net new migration greater than 1,000
+ 5K
+ 15K
+ 30K
- 5K
- 15K
- 30K
Net New Migration
Miles
0 70
31
The Coastal region added 39 percent to its population as a result of net in- migration. The biggest
contributor to that increase has historically been military families. The region is much more heavily
Figure 19
Net Migration of Young, Single, College Educated People
to North Carolina Metropolitan Areas, 1995- 2000
- 1,157
- 946
- 462
- 393
- 143
45
71
558
2,194
10,091
- 3,000 - 1,500 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 10,500 12,000
Greenville
Greensboro- Winston- Salem-
High Point
Fayetteville
Wilmington
Rocky Mount
Hickory- Morganton- Lenoir
Goldsboro
Asheville
Raleigh- Durham- Chapel Hill
Charlotte- Gastonia- Rock Hill
Net Number of Young, Single, College Educated In- migrants ( 1995- 2000)
Source: US Census Bureau
Figure 20
Distribution of Population by Race,
2007 Estimate
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
White Black American Indian Asian Other % Non- White
Population
Source: U. S. Census Bureau, AGS Demographics % of Population
U. S.
North Carolina
Mountains
Piedmont
Coastal
32
dependent on existing residents and natural population increases than other parts of the state. While in-migration
occurred at modest rates in the region, five counties within North Carolina’s Eastern Region
economic development partnership region ( representing the central counties of the Coastal region)
actually experienced a net out- migration of more than 1,000 people between 1995 and 2000.
Population Diversity
North Carolina’s racial and ethnic changes are having a significant impact on the labor market today
and will likely continue to do so as the future make- up of the workforce changes. Figure 20 shows that
the state’s population is diverse in terms of more people from a variety of ethnic backgrounds. Rapid
growth in some ethnic and minority groups is changing the composition of the workforce. Assimilating
this new demographic mix of workers will likely require parallel changes in the workplace, educational
institutions, and communities as a whole. In particular, rapid growth among minority populations has
been and will continue to be marked by an increasing diversity in language and culture.
North Carolina is somewhat more diverse than the nation, but not uniformly and not in the same
ways. In the state as a whole, the ethnic composition of North Carolina’s residents is 72 percent White,
21.6 percent Black, 1.4 percent Asian, and 1.2 percent American Indian. In addition, about 6.9 percent
of the state’s people are Hispanic. While the ethnic composition of the Piedmont resembles the state as
a whole, the Mountains and Coastal regions vary significantly. The Mountain population is the least
diverse with Whites constituting nearly 92 percent of area residents. The Coastal region is much more
ethnically diverse, with Blacks making up more than 30 percent of the population and other non- white
groups composing an additional 9 percent of the population. The diversity is greatest in the Northeast
partnership region, where the Black population accounts for more than 40 percent of the population.
Emerging Importance of Hispanics
As North Carolina enters the 21st century, it was already more ethnically diverse than the nation as a
whole in large part because it has a significantly larger Black population than does the rest of the nation.
North Carolina’s growing Hispanic population is making the state even more diverse.
Figure 21 illustrates that the proportion of Hispanics in North Carolina is lower than the nation as a
whole.
Demographics projections from the US Census suggest that the Hispanic population as a proportion
of all North Carolinians will to continue to climb at a rate that far exceeds the national average. In 2005,
North Carolina was ranked 11th for total number of Hispanic residents; the 2007 population estimate put
that number at more than 600,000. Recent research suggests that the state’s 2005 Hispanic population
may be as much as 300,000 to 400,000 more people than official Census estimates as a result of
unauthorized or undocumented migrants. 12 If these estimates are correct, the actual estimated Hispanic
population could be as high as 900,000 or 1 million ( between 9 and 11 percent of the state’s total
population).
12Pew Hispanic Center, “ Estimates of the Unauthorized Migrants for States,” April 2006. Data are based on the March 2005
Current Population Survey and are found at http:// pewhispanic. org/ files/ factsheets/ 17. pdf.
33
Before 1990, Hispanics were dispersed across the state, filling many agricultural jobs in rural areas.
During the 1990s, the Hispanic population increased, but the greatest concentration of new in- migrants
was in the Piedmont and Coastal regions. During that period, the Hispanic population typically migrated
to the state’s urban crescent. The Hispanic population density maps in Figure 22 illustrate the early
concentration in certain parts of the state, and the more recent density analysis of 2000 data confirms the
Hispanic population has increased and expanded across the state.
In the 1990s, the Mountain region had a net increase of Hispanic residents, but the growth was much
slower than the significant growth levels in the Piedmont and Coastal regions. The 600,000 Hispanic
residents in the state are younger, poorer, and more likely to be male than the rest of the state. For
instance, 25 percent of the state’s population is between the ages of 18 and 34, while 46 percent of the
state’s Hispanics are in this age range. Sixty percent of Hispanics in the state are men while overall
women slightly outnumber men. The estimated median household income of Hispanic families was about
$ 31,773 in 2005, about 78 percent of the state average of $ 40,729.13
13 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005.
Figure 21
Hispanics as a % of Total Population, by Region, 2007
15.5%
6.9%
4.0%
8.5%
4.4%
7.6%
5.0%
6.2%
4.0%
8.1%
5.0%
1.7%
8.1%
9.2%
4.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
U. S.
North Carolina
Mountains
Piedmont
Coastal
Metro
Micro
Rural
Adva