Overview of North Carolina's economy : report |
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Labor & Economic Analysis Division; January 2013 Report In December, the North Carolina economy continued to slowly improve as it headed into 2013. The unemployment rate increased 0.1 of a percentage point in December to 9.2 percent while the national rate remained at 7.8 percent. Total nonfarm employment gained 7,900 jobs in December, mainly in the Education and Health Services industry, which added 5,900 jobs over the month, and 6.3 percent since the start of the recession. The average manufacturing workweek increased to 41.2 hours from 40.7 hours in November exceeding more than 41 hours for the first time since April 2012. In December, online advertised vacancies in North Carolina rose by 1,400 (seasonally adjusted) and 24,700 (or 21%) from December 2011. December’s monthly level of labor demand in North Carolina exceeded the prerecession high in 2007. The state’s November 2012 labor supply/demand rate stood at 3.08 (indicating there are litle more than three unemployed persons for every job advertised online). This is one point higher than the prerecession level but comparable to neighboring states. Demand for Registered Nurses, First Line Supervisors (for both retail and food preparation) and Retail Sales occupations together accounted for nearly one-quarter of the total increase. Vacancies for Registered Nurses rose 48 percent, making them the largest occupation in demand. North Carolina personal income grew by 0.4 percent in the third quarter 2012; slightly slower than the national rate of 0.5 percent. The largest contributions to earnings growth came from professional services, management and healthcare. North Carolina manufacturing added $302 million in earnings in the third quarter 2012 and was 27 percent of total state earnings. Echoing a national trend, financial services was a large drag on growth, declining by $369 million for the quarter. Similar rates of decline were felt in financial states like New York and New Jersey. There was a slight dip in North Carolina housing activity In November, but it continued to greatly outpace 2011. The number of North Carolina residential building permits was nearly 43 percent higher than November 2011. November existing home sales in North Carolina jumped by 30 percent when compared to November 2011. Existing home sales price levels plateaued in the fall but are 5.4 percent higher over the year. The average North Carolina existing home sale price was $202,933 in November. In November, North Carolina ranked 15th in the nation in the value of its exports and 5th among the 12 states in the Southeast region. North Carolina’s exports in November totaled $2.4 billion, up 6 percent over the same period last year. The increase was due to the rising outbound shipments of transportation equipment, machinery, and agricultural products. Machinery was the state’s largest export, followed closely by chemical products — both accounted for 30 percent of the state’s overall exports in November. However, chemical exports fell 11 percent from the same period last year, mainly due to the decrease in demand of basic chemicals in Japan. Canada remains the state’s largest export destination with November exports totaling $568.8 million, distantly followed by Mexico and China. Compared to the same period last year, exports to Canada and Mexico rose 2 percent and 28 percent, respectively, while exports to China declined 22 percent as China’s economic growth continued to slow. Statewide, the hotel/motel occupancy rate increased in November 2012 to 53.5, which was 1.6 percent higher than November 2011. These rates are the highest levels of November occupancy since 2007. November room rates rose nearly three percent from 2011, and 4.6 percent year-to-date through November. The Southeast Region posted the highest demand growth in the state during November, gaining 8.0 percent from 2011. Room revenues in the Southeast Region grew 9.0 percent in November. The Charlote, Triad, and Western Regions also showed strong growth in lodging revenues during the month as compared to 2011. KEY INDICATORS AT A GLANCE NC Unemployment Rate increased to 9.2% from 9.1% NC Total Nonfarm Employment increased 7,900 jobs NC Manufacturing Weekly Hours increased 0.5 hours NC Help Wanted Online increased by 1,400 online job openings NCSU Index of Leading Indicators increased 0.3% US Consumer Confidence Index fell to 65.1 from 71.5 NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMIC OVERVIEW: January 2013 Department of Commerce NORTH CAROLINA Labor & Economic Analysis Division; January 2013 Report The NCSU Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators (the “Index”), a forecast of the economy’s direction four to six months ahead, continued its late-year improvement by rising 0.3 percent in November. The Index is now at its highest level in almost five years. Among the individual components, improvements were registered for initial jobless claims, manufacturing hours, and manufacturing earnings, while the national index and building permits retreated. Based on the Index’s trend in the last two months (October and November), an acceleration of North Carolina’s economic growth rate may be developing for early 2013. The NCSU Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators was developed by Dr. Michael Walden at NC State University. Dr. Walden has a PhD in economics and more than 30 years of experience studying North Carolina’s economy. Special thanks to Dr. Walden for allowing the reproduction of the Index (December 2012, volume 3, number 12) in this publication. The National Economy The fiscal clif legislation that passed on New Year’s Day may reduce the possibility of a recession this year, but does not eliminate continuing political uncertainty. According to the Congressional Budget Ofice’s fiscal clif legislation report, relative to what would have occurred under the laws previously in efect, the legislation will increase budget deficits in coming years. However, relative to what would have occurred if most tax and spending policies that were in efect in 2012 were continued, this legislation will reduce budget deficits. Regardless, the looming debt ceiling and budget-cuting sequestrations may add political uncertainty heading into spring. This uncertainty weighed on business optimism and consumer confidence in December before the deal was passed. Small business optimism crept up 0.5 percent over November’s historically low report. The 88.0 point reading was still the second lowest since March 2010 and was partially caused by owners who still expect business conditions to worsen in the next six months. An important indicator of future capital investment and hiring, CEO confidence increased in the fourth quarter to 46 from 42 in the third quarter. Despite the uncertainty, 23 percent of business leaders expected economic conditions to improve in the next six months, up from 14 percent in the third quarter. E-commerce spending totaled $42.3 billion online during the entire November-December holiday shopping season, marking a 14-percent increase from 2011. While the holiday season started of with strong growth, a decline in consumer confidence gave way to softer than expected buying during the critical shopping weeks in early to mid-December, from which growth rates never fully recovered. December retail sales totaled $416 billion, 4.7 percent above December 2011. As spending increased, it appears consumer borrowing did also. In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.0 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of just 1.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.5 percent. Economic Indicators If you would like to be added to the distribution list, please contact Tim Aylor at (timothy.aylor@nccommerce.com). Previous Monthly Overviews are available on Commerce’s website by clicking here. 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% Percent of Persons Unemployed NC Unemployment Rate Source: Local Area Unemploymenet Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted 3,880 3,900 3,920 3,940 3,960 3,980 4,000 4,020 Jobs NC Total Employment Source: Current Employment Statistics 39.0 39.5 40.0 40.5 41.0 41.5 Hours NC Manufacturing Weekly Hours Source: Current Employment Statistics 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Number of Home Sales NC Existing Home Sales Source: NC Assocation of Realtors 100,000 105,000 110,000 115,000 120,000 125,000 130,000 135,000 140,000 145,000 Advertised Vacancies NC HWOL Advertised Vacancies Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine, Seasonally Adjusted 344 346 348 350 352 354 356 358 360 Billions of Dollars NC Personal Income Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Object Description
Description
Title | Overview of North Carolina's economy : report |
Other Title | North Carolina economic overview; Monthly overview of North Carolina's economy |
Date | 2013-01 |
Description | January 2013 |
Digital Characteristics-A | 433 KB; 2 p. |
Digital Format |
application/pdf |
Pres File Name-M | pubs_serial_nceconomyoverview201301.pdf |
Full Text | Labor & Economic Analysis Division; January 2013 Report In December, the North Carolina economy continued to slowly improve as it headed into 2013. The unemployment rate increased 0.1 of a percentage point in December to 9.2 percent while the national rate remained at 7.8 percent. Total nonfarm employment gained 7,900 jobs in December, mainly in the Education and Health Services industry, which added 5,900 jobs over the month, and 6.3 percent since the start of the recession. The average manufacturing workweek increased to 41.2 hours from 40.7 hours in November exceeding more than 41 hours for the first time since April 2012. In December, online advertised vacancies in North Carolina rose by 1,400 (seasonally adjusted) and 24,700 (or 21%) from December 2011. December’s monthly level of labor demand in North Carolina exceeded the prerecession high in 2007. The state’s November 2012 labor supply/demand rate stood at 3.08 (indicating there are litle more than three unemployed persons for every job advertised online). This is one point higher than the prerecession level but comparable to neighboring states. Demand for Registered Nurses, First Line Supervisors (for both retail and food preparation) and Retail Sales occupations together accounted for nearly one-quarter of the total increase. Vacancies for Registered Nurses rose 48 percent, making them the largest occupation in demand. North Carolina personal income grew by 0.4 percent in the third quarter 2012; slightly slower than the national rate of 0.5 percent. The largest contributions to earnings growth came from professional services, management and healthcare. North Carolina manufacturing added $302 million in earnings in the third quarter 2012 and was 27 percent of total state earnings. Echoing a national trend, financial services was a large drag on growth, declining by $369 million for the quarter. Similar rates of decline were felt in financial states like New York and New Jersey. There was a slight dip in North Carolina housing activity In November, but it continued to greatly outpace 2011. The number of North Carolina residential building permits was nearly 43 percent higher than November 2011. November existing home sales in North Carolina jumped by 30 percent when compared to November 2011. Existing home sales price levels plateaued in the fall but are 5.4 percent higher over the year. The average North Carolina existing home sale price was $202,933 in November. In November, North Carolina ranked 15th in the nation in the value of its exports and 5th among the 12 states in the Southeast region. North Carolina’s exports in November totaled $2.4 billion, up 6 percent over the same period last year. The increase was due to the rising outbound shipments of transportation equipment, machinery, and agricultural products. Machinery was the state’s largest export, followed closely by chemical products — both accounted for 30 percent of the state’s overall exports in November. However, chemical exports fell 11 percent from the same period last year, mainly due to the decrease in demand of basic chemicals in Japan. Canada remains the state’s largest export destination with November exports totaling $568.8 million, distantly followed by Mexico and China. Compared to the same period last year, exports to Canada and Mexico rose 2 percent and 28 percent, respectively, while exports to China declined 22 percent as China’s economic growth continued to slow. Statewide, the hotel/motel occupancy rate increased in November 2012 to 53.5, which was 1.6 percent higher than November 2011. These rates are the highest levels of November occupancy since 2007. November room rates rose nearly three percent from 2011, and 4.6 percent year-to-date through November. The Southeast Region posted the highest demand growth in the state during November, gaining 8.0 percent from 2011. Room revenues in the Southeast Region grew 9.0 percent in November. The Charlote, Triad, and Western Regions also showed strong growth in lodging revenues during the month as compared to 2011. KEY INDICATORS AT A GLANCE NC Unemployment Rate increased to 9.2% from 9.1% NC Total Nonfarm Employment increased 7,900 jobs NC Manufacturing Weekly Hours increased 0.5 hours NC Help Wanted Online increased by 1,400 online job openings NCSU Index of Leading Indicators increased 0.3% US Consumer Confidence Index fell to 65.1 from 71.5 NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMIC OVERVIEW: January 2013 Department of Commerce NORTH CAROLINA Labor & Economic Analysis Division; January 2013 Report The NCSU Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators (the “Index”), a forecast of the economy’s direction four to six months ahead, continued its late-year improvement by rising 0.3 percent in November. The Index is now at its highest level in almost five years. Among the individual components, improvements were registered for initial jobless claims, manufacturing hours, and manufacturing earnings, while the national index and building permits retreated. Based on the Index’s trend in the last two months (October and November), an acceleration of North Carolina’s economic growth rate may be developing for early 2013. The NCSU Index of North Carolina Leading Economic Indicators was developed by Dr. Michael Walden at NC State University. Dr. Walden has a PhD in economics and more than 30 years of experience studying North Carolina’s economy. Special thanks to Dr. Walden for allowing the reproduction of the Index (December 2012, volume 3, number 12) in this publication. The National Economy The fiscal clif legislation that passed on New Year’s Day may reduce the possibility of a recession this year, but does not eliminate continuing political uncertainty. According to the Congressional Budget Ofice’s fiscal clif legislation report, relative to what would have occurred under the laws previously in efect, the legislation will increase budget deficits in coming years. However, relative to what would have occurred if most tax and spending policies that were in efect in 2012 were continued, this legislation will reduce budget deficits. Regardless, the looming debt ceiling and budget-cuting sequestrations may add political uncertainty heading into spring. This uncertainty weighed on business optimism and consumer confidence in December before the deal was passed. Small business optimism crept up 0.5 percent over November’s historically low report. The 88.0 point reading was still the second lowest since March 2010 and was partially caused by owners who still expect business conditions to worsen in the next six months. An important indicator of future capital investment and hiring, CEO confidence increased in the fourth quarter to 46 from 42 in the third quarter. Despite the uncertainty, 23 percent of business leaders expected economic conditions to improve in the next six months, up from 14 percent in the third quarter. E-commerce spending totaled $42.3 billion online during the entire November-December holiday shopping season, marking a 14-percent increase from 2011. While the holiday season started of with strong growth, a decline in consumer confidence gave way to softer than expected buying during the critical shopping weeks in early to mid-December, from which growth rates never fully recovered. December retail sales totaled $416 billion, 4.7 percent above December 2011. As spending increased, it appears consumer borrowing did also. In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.0 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of just 1.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.5 percent. Economic Indicators If you would like to be added to the distribution list, please contact Tim Aylor at (timothy.aylor@nccommerce.com). Previous Monthly Overviews are available on Commerce’s website by clicking here. 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% Percent of Persons Unemployed NC Unemployment Rate Source: Local Area Unemploymenet Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted 3,880 3,900 3,920 3,940 3,960 3,980 4,000 4,020 Jobs NC Total Employment Source: Current Employment Statistics 39.0 39.5 40.0 40.5 41.0 41.5 Hours NC Manufacturing Weekly Hours Source: Current Employment Statistics 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Number of Home Sales NC Existing Home Sales Source: NC Assocation of Realtors 100,000 105,000 110,000 115,000 120,000 125,000 130,000 135,000 140,000 145,000 Advertised Vacancies NC HWOL Advertised Vacancies Source: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine, Seasonally Adjusted 344 346 348 350 352 354 356 358 360 Billions of Dollars NC Personal Income Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis |
OCLC number | 693901082 |