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•15 / THE ESC QUARTERLY VOL. 28 NO. 1-4 RESEARCH AND STATISTICS EDITION North Carolina State Raleigh Library W. fc nr\C.. CHAIRMAN'S COMMENTS Henry E. Kendall Chairman N. C. Employment Seen rit 11 Com miss/on KENDALL One of the most reputable sources of labor market information in North Carolina is the Employment Security Commission's Bureau of Employment Security Research—the topic of this issue of the ESC Quarterly. Directed by Donald Brande, BESR has approximately 40 labor market analysts, research analysts, statistical aides and clerical workers, and occupies almost the entire fourth floor of the Employment Security Com-mission central office in Raleigh. The bureau also has seven labor market analysts stationed in six standard metropolitan statistical areas to submit reports required by the U.S. Labor Department in Washington. Compiling data on almost every conceivable item within the insured and non-insured work force in North Carolina, BESR is a mainstay to industrial development in the State because it is the primary reference point for new employers seeking plant locations. Its studies of occupational shortages have also provided the basis for occupational training in North Carolina by the Depart-ment of Public Instruction and the community colleges system, and its figures on unemployment by region and county establish the allocation of federal funds. About a dozen articles in this issue of the Quarterly, written by research analysts and the directors of the Bureau, illustrated the diversity of BESR's activities, and also its value to the State as well as to the Commission. BESR provides information to numbers of State and private agencies, and with its statistics, North Carolina's economic situation is revealed. Last year's General Assembly passed a bill amending North Carolina's unemployment insurance law. Intro-duced to bring the State program into conformance with federal statutes, the bill was considered major legislation involving an insurance program over 30 years old. Important provisions to the law included extended unemployment insurance coverage to additional workers in North Carolina by establishing liability of each employer employing one or more workers in 20 calendar weeks. About 138,000 additional people were brought under the bill. For years coverage was extended only to employers of four or more workers. An additional 33,000 employers were brought under the law by the 1971 legislation. And for the first time, some State workers will be covered by unemployment insurance. Those employed in State hospitals and institutions of higher learning may begin accruing wage credits to provide jobless benefit payments during involuntary unemployment. Our BESR estimates that 20,000 State employees will be included in this new provision, and a story on the new UI law appears on page 33. An article about the JAVA decision, a unique judiciary move affecting the rights of UI claimants in all states, is included on page 25. A former college placement official expresses his opinions on job opportunities for college graduates, page 31, and the Public Employment Act, a federal program to provide jobs for unemployed and underemployed workers in public service positions, is explained on page 23. THE ESC QUARTERLY Volume 28, No. 1-4, 1972 Issued at Raleigh, N. C, by the EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION OF NORTH CAROLINA Commissioners P. R. Latta, Raleigh; Charles L. Hunley, Monroe; Henry E. Kendall, Raleigh; Samuel F. Teague, Raleigh; R. Archie Parker, Murfreesboro; Walter A. Orrell, Linwood; Harvey D. Heartley, Raleigh. State Advisory Council Public representatives: Hoyle T. Efird, Chairman, Gastonia; Way S. Abel, Canton; Sherwood Rober-son, Robersonville; Mrs. W. Arthur Tripp, Green-ville; Mrs. M. Edmund Aycoek, Raleigh. Employer representatives: Joseph D. Ross, Jr., Asheboro; G. Maurice Hill, Drexel. Employee representa-tives: Melvin Ward, Spencer, AFL. HENRY E. KENDALL Chairman R. FULLER MARTIN Director Unemployment Insurance Division JOHN B. FLEMING Director State Employment Service Division H. E. (Ted) DAVIS Editor Public Information Officer Sent free upon request to responsible individuals, -agencies, organizations and libraries Address: E.S.C. Information Service, P. O. Box 25903, Raleigh, N. C. The Employment Security Commis-sion administers two major State programs — Un-employment In-surance and the State Employ-ment Service. The Employment Ser-vice provides ex-pense free job placement to ap-plicants through 60 local offices of the Commission. Unemployment insurance covers approximately 1,738,000workers in North Carolina, providing them with benefit payments in case of involuntary unem-ployment. The Unemployment Insurance program is supported by payroll taxes contributed by approxi-mately 78,000 Tarheel employing companies, firms and corporations. The Commission has operated since the mid '30's when it was established by the General Assembly as the Unemployment Compensation Com-mission. ESC QUARTERLY I suppose that since our department is the only one in the Commission tagged with that much maligned title "Bureau," the "BESR" must be com-prised of the only true "bureaucrats" in our entire agency. In fact, there are few "bureaus" left in all State govern-ment. Despite its rather ostentatious title, the Bureau of Employment Security Research in reality is one of several "joint service" departments of the Commission. Our chief function is to compile and coordinate most (not all) of the reporting programs for the agency, especially the seemingly never-ending series of reports that ultimately are transmitted to the depositories of the Manpower Administration of the U.S. Depart-ment of Labor in Washington. Being "joint" in character simply means that BESR serves both the Unemployment Insurance and the Employment Service Divisions in reporting matters. While the reporting of the agency's activities has always been our main "tour de force," the years have pro-duced a gradual evolution of the Bureau from a mere reporting unit to a rather diversified research organiza- LABOR FORCE STATISTICIANS BUREAU of EMPLOYMENT SECU RESEARCH By DAVE GARRISON Assistant Director Bureau of Employment Security Research GARRISON tion. In the early years our department was known as "Research and Statis-tics." But when some wag once remarked that "the only things statistics will support are statisticians," we decided to drop the word statistics from our title. The diversification of BESR activi-ties is adequately depicted in the many articles prepared by various members of our staff for this issue of the Quarterly. They have attempted to tell the reader what BESR is all about, and even a perfunctory review of these articles will show that BESR is involved in a variety of programs — many of which have far-reaching influence on the social and economic development of North Carolina. Even so, not all of the functions and responsibilities of the Bureau are covered by articles. Much research goes on behind the scenes, some of which is not generally recognized as having been the product of the BESR, and some of which is never publicly disseminated. For example, research relating to legislative changes is con-ducted as necessary. The benefit formula and the experience rating tax structure of the Employment Security Law didn't get the way they are by "happenstance." Administrative recommendations to the General Assembly are based on alternative costing research studies conducted by the Bureau. Currently the Bureau staff consists of 41 persons. Five additional staff members will join the unit early in 197 2 when the new Occupational Statistics program becomes opera-tional. For the most part, the day to day work performed by the Bureau staff is of the hard-nosed, practical variety. There isn't a single Ph.D. on the staff! Much of what we produce, however, is widely used by economists and researchers all over the country So perhaps in that sense we do help "support statisticians" after all. ESC QUARTERLY Bureau Keeps Tab On Tarheel Workforce By RUTH CRAVEN Employment Security Research Analyst The Labor Market information unit of the Bureau of Employment Security Research is responsible for compiling work force data for all counties of the State. Outstationed labor market analysts in the Asheville, Charlotte, Durham, Greensboro, High Point and Winston-Salem local offices compile current monthly data for nine counties and analysts in the central office compile data for the 91 other counties and for North Carolina. Each year a publication is prepared which shows final employment with industry detail, unemployment, and work force estimates for the 100 counties, the defined multi-county labor areas, and the State. The publica-tion is entitled North Carolina Work Force Estimates by County, Area and State and is released in August of each year. Each edition contains quarterly and annual average data for the most recent calendar year and annual average data for the prior six years. The publication is designed to be a reference source for managers of local offices to use in answering questions concerning employment and unem-ployment in their administrative areas. The publication is distributed to regional and community planning groups, state and federal agencies, research groups, libraries, and private agencies who need employment and unemployment data for making plan-ning decisions. The data compiled for the work force publication are used by the Bureau of Employment Security Research in keeping abreast of unemployment development in all counties. Since federal assistance is provided counties with high unemployment under numerous pro-grams, it is important that these coun-ties be identified. In North Carolina there are current-ly 11 counties classified by the U.S. Department of Labor as areas of persistent unemployment, i.e., unem-ployment above six percent for three out of four of the last calendar years. Thirteen counties are classified as areas of substantial unemployment, i.e., unemployment above six percent for the most recent calendar year and anti-cipated to remain above six percent for the near future. These 24 counties are eligible for benefits under the Public Works and Economic Develop-ment Act administered by the U.S. Department of Commerce as well as for benefits under various other programs of aid for depressed areas. In order for an area to be classified as an area of high unemployment, a report must be submitted to the U.S. Department of Labor describing economic conditions in the area and showing current and anticipated employment and unemployment trends. If the U.S. Department of Labor classifies an area, current bi-monthly work force data are compiled and a semi-annual Area Manpower Review must be prepared and sub-mitted to the national office. The Area Manpower Review contains a narrative section and a table showing current and prior employment and unemploy-ment trends in the area. The report is supposed to access current and antici-pated economic conditions in the area and copies of the report may be distri-buted to community leaders who need manpower information for planning and other purposes. When current work force estimates are required, it is necessary to survey employers since it normally takes six to nine months for information collected on the Contributed Reports required by the Employment Security Law to be processed and tabulated. Current work force estimates are prepared for all the major metropoli-tan areas of the State and for all classi-fied counties. A sample of employers is selected to survey from each industry category and a letter is mailed CRAVEN to these employers. The employment trends in the sample firms are used as a basis for making current or prelimi-nary employment and unemployment estimates. Each year when the tabula-tions of employment reported on the Employer Contribution Reports become available, the preliminary esti-mates are revised or benchmarked. The benchmarked figures are considered final estimates and are used as a basis for making estimates for the next year. The publication North Carolina Work Force Estimates presents final work force figures for all counties. The Bureau of Employment Securi-ty Research began publishing work force estimates for all areas in 1962. The first edition entitled North Caro-lina Labor Force Estimates by Labor Market Area showed March, 1960, and March, 1961 data. The next three annual editions contained data for the month of March only. With the passage of the Economic Development Act of 1965, the need for annual average data became apparent. There-fore, the publication released in 1966 was changed and showed quarterly and annual average data for the year 1965 and annual average data for the years 1962, 1963, and 1964. This edition was entitled North Carolina Work Force Estimates by Labor Area. In 1968 the title was changed again to North Carolina Work Force Estimates by County, Area, and State and the order of presentation was changed so that county data was included alpha-betically in one section, multi-county labor area data was included in another section, and state-wide data was included for the first time. Since 1968 the publications have remained basically the same. The various publications have included supplemental data compiled by other agencies. Population, high school graduates entering work force and per capita income data are some of the items that have been included in various editions. The work force data compiled in North Carolina are designed to be comparable to those prepared in other areas throughout the nation. Detailed methodology are provided by the Man-power Administration, U.S. Depart-ment of Labor. The following section defines and briefly explains work force, unemployment and employ-ment. The civilian work force is defined as the total number of employed and unemployed persons, excluding mili- ESC QUARTERLY tary personnel. All work force estimates prepared in North Carolina are for the civilian work force. Many people are confused about the meaning of total unemployment. Total unemployment is defined as all people who did not work at all during a given week but who were able, avail-able, and during the last four weeks had made a specific effort to look for work. Total unemployment, therefore, includes persons who are filing claims for unemployment insurance for a total week of unemployment, people who have exhausted their unemploy-ment insurance benefits and are still unemployed, unemployed people who were disqualified from receiving UI benefits, people who have worked for establishments not covered by the Employment Security law and were not eligible for unemployment insurance benefits, and people who have never worked or who have been out of the work force for a time and are now seeking jobs. Unemployment for North Carolina and for the 100 counties is estimated following the procedures outlined by the Manpower Administration, U.S. Department of Labor in the Handbook on Estimating Unemployment. These procedures and methods are designed to give unemployment results comparable to those derived for the nation as a whole in the Labor Depart-ment's survey of 52,000 households. The estimating techniques that are available yield the total number of residents of a county that are unem-ployed. No procedures are available for deriving the characteristics of the unemployed. Total employment is defined as the total number of persons who worked for pay or profit during a given week or who worked as unpaid family workers for 15 or more hours during a week. The employment information is derived by using data from many sources. Tabulations prepared from the Employer Contribution Reports required by the Employment Security Law are used as a basic source. Infor-mation on number of people employed by firms not covered by the Employment Security Law is derived from Social Security information on firms employing less than four employees; Railroad Retirement Board information on railroad employees; special surveys of hospitals, colleges, county and city school systems, local government agencies, etc. and releases including Census of Government, Census of Population, and Census of Agriculture. Since the data collected come from establishment payrolls, they reflect employment by place of work. The data differ from census data which reflect employment by place of residence. LABOR MARKET FORECASTS NEEDED IN ERA OF CHANGING MANPOWER By ROBERT S. STEPHENSON Employment Security Research Analyst In a growing economy, the occu-pational composition of the work force, as well as the skills required in each occupation, change through the years. Present manpower needs, there-fore, are an uncertain guide to future requirements. In order to plan educa-tional and training programs to meet future needs at the national, state, and area levels, projections are needed of these changing manpower require-ments. To the extent that education, training and vocational guidance accurately reflect the changing character of manpower needs, im-balances between manpower require-ments and labor supply can be reduced, economic productivity and the earning power of workers enhanced, and structural unemploy-ment minimized. Manpower planning prior to the 1960's played a minor role, except in wartime emergencies, in an assumed labor surplus economy. Planning tended to be restricted to those occupations in which manpower development required substantial lead time and, after Sputnik in 1957, to those regarded as crucial in advancing the nation's technological standing. The need for more extensive occupational data was dramatized by President John F. Kennedy. In his initial Manpower Report in 1963, he wrote, "Manpower is the basic resource. It is the indispensable means of converting other resources to mankind's use and benefit. How well we develop and employ human skills is fundamental in deciding how much we accomplish as a nation. The manner in which we do so will, moreover, profoundly determine the kind of nation we become." Tightening labor markets with some shortages of qualified manpower emerged as a sequel to the soaring economic growth of the early sixties. Manpower planning, based upon reliable information regarding occupa-tional employment needs, aims to enlarge job opportunities and improve training and employment decisions. This is achieved through the power of informed personal choice and calcu-lated adjustment to rapidly changing demand. By means of more intelligent training and career decisions, man-power planning can enhance satis-faction on the job, raise the quality and utilization of labor resources, reduce the cost of industry staffing, and, thereby, increase the output of the nation. Collection of occupational data and its corollary spinoff, the emergence of long-range forecasting techniques, have lagged behind other aspects of the job market information program for obvious reasons. The great expense in collecting data by occupation using the "skill survey" techniques, burden-some employer reporting, technical problems in translating employer job titles into standard occupational nomenclature, and problems in developing acceptable projection techniques are some of the more important reasons for such slow progress. The spate of manpower legislation in the first half of the sixties, however, placed an urgent priority on the expansion of occupational informa-tion. In federally funded manpower training programs, there had to be a reasonable expectation of employment for the trainees upon course comple-tion. Hence, the need arose for a forecasting technique which could STEPHENSON ESC QUARTERLY yield adequate data within available time and cost limitations. The Vocational Education Act of 1963, in allocating millions of dollars for vocational training, specifically gives a mandate to the Employment Security system to provide job market information. State Employment Security agencies with no additional funding and with only the traditional and costly skill survey technique available to them, have in many instances been unable to furnish that information which by law they are obligated to provide. Being handi-capped by a lack of funding, the skill survey approach gave way to the technique now in general use— a "regression-matrix model" based upon a national industry-occupational matrix. North Carolina Manpower Needs by Industry and Occupation to 1975 represents the initial effort of the Bureau of Employment Security Research to develop occupational projections for the state using the least-squares regression technique and a national industry-occupational matrix (table of staffing patterns). Total industry employment data for the years 1958-1968 were used to project the state's level of employment for 197 5. Occupational employment projections were derived by computer application of a programmed national industry -occupational matrix to correspondingly detailed 1960 employment by occupation for North Carolina. Significant changes in the industrial and occupational structure of North Carolina's economy have had and are continuing to have profound effects upon the number and nature of employment opportunities throughout the state. An analysis of total employ-ment in terms of goods-producing and service-producing industries reveals that during the mid-1960's North Carolina became a service-oriented economy. The following table indi-cates that in 1960 for every 100 jobs in goods-producing industries there were 83 jobs in the service-producing TABLE 2 Percent Distribution of Total Employment by Major Industry Division In the United States and North Carolina, 1960 and Projected 1975 Percent Distribution United States 1 North Carolina Industry 1960 1975 1960 1975 Total, all industries Agr., Forestry & Fisheries Mining Contract Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm., & P. Util. Wholesale & Ret. Trade Fin. Insur. & Real Estate Services Public Administration 1 National employment estimates made by Bureau of Labor Statistics published in Tomorrow 's Manpower Needs. 2 Includes only those workers engaged in activities unique to government. All workers whose activities are also conducted by private industry are classified in their appropriate industry. 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 8.7 4.4 18.1 5.3 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.2 6.1 6.4 5.7 7.0 26.0 23.3 30.6 34.8 6.8 6.1 4.5 5.2 20.0 20.8 16.3 18.4 4.3 4.5 2.7 3.6 22.2 28.1 18.9 22.1 4.8 5.8 3.0 3.4 sector. By 197 5, it is projected that for every 100 jobs in goods-producing, 112 will exist in service-producing industries. This trend is in keeping with our nationwide service-oriented economy. Further analysis of the state's industry employment trends indicates several divergent trends in relation to national forecasts. Of primary impor-tance is the manufacturing segment which is expected to decline in relative importance nationally but increase significantly on the state-wide level. Transportation, communication and public utilities will claim a slightly greater proportion of total state employment, while a decline in rela-tive growth is anticipated for the nation. Employment in agriculture will decline in both the nation and the state, but at a significantly greater rate in North Carolina. Tables 2 and 3 give a comparative distribution of state and national employment by industry, as well as annual growth rates for the survey period. TABLE 1 Many economic factors will also cause notable changes in the occupa-tional structure of North Carolina's work force. An important factor is the varied growth rates among the State's industries, spawned by changes in consumption patterns and shifts in income distribution. Other major factors which con-tribute to occupational shifts are: (a) population growth and significant shifts in age distribution, (b) the increasing trend toward a service-oriented economy, (c) rapid industrial diversification throughout the State, and (d) constant development of new products and processes through tech-nological advances which will affect farm workers and lesser-skilled industrial workers most dramatically. Highlights of past and anticipated developments among the state's occupational categories are presented in Table 4. Estimating job opportunities cre-ated by industrial expansion completes only half the task of projecting total Estimated Employment and Annual Average Growth Rates for North Carolina Industries 1960, 1968 and Projected 1975 Total Employment (Annual Avg.) Total, All Industries Goods-Producing Ind. 1 Percent of Total Service-Producing Ind. Percent of Total 1960 1,705,350 930,605 54.6% 774,745 45.4% 1968 2,064,000 1,026,160 49.7% 1,037,840 50.3% 1975 2,316,160 1,094,590 47.3% 1,221,570 52.7% Annual Average Growth Rate Percent No. of Jobs/Year 1960-68 1968-75 1960-68 1968-75 2.4 1.2 3.6 1.6 0.9 2.3 44,830 11,945 32,885 36,025 9,780 26,245 Includes Agric, Forestry & Fisheries; Mining; Construction; and Manufacturing. Includes Trans., Comm. & Pub. Util.; Wsle. & Ret. Trade; Fin., Ins. & Real Estate; Services; and Government (Public Administration). ESC QUARTERLY labor demand. It is essential, therefore, to also consider replacement demand generated by the voluntary with-drawal, retirement or death of workers in order to obtain total labor needs over a given time span. During the 1969-1975 survey period, 144 existing workers will need to be replaced for every 100 new jobs created by industrial growth. Only four of the nine broad occupational groups reflect a greater need for expansion purposes than for replace-ment. Further analysis reveals that in each of these four groups male workers comprise the greater propor-tion of total employment. Generally, those occupations consisting of predominantly female employment will reflect a considerable greater need for replacement of workers than for expansion. Table 5 illustrates the overall impact of expansion and replacement needs on North Carolina's work force. It further reveals that operatives, clerical workers, service workers, and craftsmen, respectively, will probably claim the greatest number of needed workers. Close scrutiny of detailed occupational data can provide impor-tant insights into possible future shortages and training needs. Admittedly, one area of our latest effort to project future employment needs remains somewhat deficient— that being the estimation of labor supply. Considerably more work needs to be done on both state and national levels to develop techniques for estimating labor supply by occupation. Because of our limitations of funds and inadequate staff resources, no effort was made to develop estimates of supply. However, a comparison of projected labor force date for 1970 and 1980* does indicate that a condition of economic equilibrium may be expected in 197 5. Assuming a four percent rate of unemployment the projected employment of slightly over 2.3 million workers in 1975 for North Carolina coincides with national labor force projections of approxi-mately 2.4 million. Equilibrium, as a long-run economic condition, tends, at least in principle, to be theoretically less demanding than a condition of labor shortage or surplus. It is important to remember, however, that the resultant occupa-tional employment projections are not intended, in themselves, to predict exactly the levels of occupational employment. Instead, these projec-tions suggest that, given the presently developing economic trends and relationships, a particular number of persons will be employed and those who are employed will be distributed to various occupations in the esti-mated proportions. Similarly, on the labor supply side, assumptions must be made regarding the stability or regu-larity of such variables as population, migration, training, output, and the level of economic activity. 1. National BLS projections published in Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, Vol. I, p. 85. TABLES 4 and 5 ON PAGE 8 -, 1 "' TABLE 3 Total Industry Employment in the United States and North Careilina With Average Annual Growth Rates from 1960 to 1975 Employment (Thousands) Annual Growth Rate Industry United States North Carolina 1960 -1975 1960 1975 1 1960 1975 U.S. N.C. Total, All Industries 66,681.0 88,660.0 1,705.4 2,316.2 1.9 2.0 Agric, Forestry & Fisheries 5,816.0 3,875.0 308.2 122.2 -2.7 -5.8 Mining 723.0 640.0 3.5 4.2 -.8 1.2 Construction 4,068.0 5,675.0 96.2 163.5 2.2 3.5 Manufacturing 17,307.0 20,625.0 522.7 804.7 1.2 2.8 Durable Goods 9,749.0 11,995.0 152.0 254.0 1.4 3.4 Lumber & Wood Products 688.0 615.0 38.0 32.2 -.8 -1.1 Furniture & Fixtures 395.0 535.0 45.6 84.4 2.0 4.0 Stone, Clay & Glass 614.0 675.0 10.9 18.3 .6 3.4 Fabricated Metals 1,362.0 1,830.0 9.8 15.0 2.0 2.8 Nonelectrical Machinery 1,499.0 2,110.0 12.4 34.6 2.3 6.3 Electrical Equip. & Supplies 1,465.0 2,035.0 25.7 41.6 2.2 3.2 Instruments & Rel. Prods. 403.0 540.0 0.9 6.2 2.0 10.0 Other Durables 3,323.0 3,655.0 8.9 21.7 .6 5.6 Nondurable Goods 7,558.0 8,630.0 370.7 550.7 .9 2.6 Food & Kindred Prods. 1,813.0 1,710.0 34.5 48.0 -.4 2.2 Textile Mill Products 919.0 890.0 224.8 293.1 -.2 1.8 Apparel & Related Prods. 1,241.0 1,550.0 36.0 100.8 1.5 6.3 Paper & Allied Prods. 597.0 790.0 14.6 18.0 1.9 1.4 Printing & Publishing 1,114.0 1,365.0 10.1 17.3 1.4 3.5 Chemicals & Allied Prods. 833.0 1,140.0 13.2 31.6 2.1 5.5 Other Nondurable Goods3 1,041.0 1,185.0 37.3 41.9 .9 .8 Transp., Comm., & P. Utilities 4,538.0 5,390.0 76.6 120.7 1.2 3.0 Wholesale & Retail Trade 13,365.0 18,455.0 278.1 426.3 2.1 2.8 Finance, Insurance & R. Estate 2,852.0 3,980.0 45.5 83.3 2.2 3.9 Services 14,794.0 24,880.0 323.0 512.7 3.5 3.0 Public Administration4 3,218.0 5,140.0 51.6 78.7 3.2 2.8 National Projections Prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, Volumes 1-4. Includes Primary Metals, Transportation Equipment and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. 3 Includes Tobacco Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Rubber and Plastic Products; and Leather and Leather Products. Includes Government Workers Engaged in Activities unique to Government; Those Engaged in Activities also carrie d on by Private Enterprises are Classified in Their Appropriate Industry. ESC QUARTERLY TABLE 4 Total Occupational Employment in North Carolina for 1960, 1968 and Projected 1975 with Average Annual Growth Rates from 1960-1968 and 1968-1975 Occupational Group Total, All Occupations Professional, Technical & Kindred Engineers, Technical Medical & Other Health Workers Teachers Natural Scientists Social Scientists Technicians, Exc. Medical & Dental Other Prof., Tech. & Kindred Managers, Officials & Proprietors Clerical & Kindred Workers Stenos, Typists & Secretaries Office Machine Operators Other Clerical & Kindred Sales Workers Craftsmen, Foremen & Kindred Workers Construction Craftsmen Foremen, N. E. C. Metalworking Craftsmen, Exc. Mechanics Mechanics and Repairmen Painting Trades Craftsmen Transportation, Pub. Utility Craftsmen Other Craftsmen & Kindred Operatives & Kindred Workers Drivers & Deliverymen Transportation, Public Utility Operatives Semi-Skilled Metalworkers Semi-Skilled Textile Occupations Other Operatives & Kindred Service Workers Private Household Workers Protective Service Workers Food Service Workers Other Service Workers Laborers, Except Farm & Mine Farmers & Farm Workers Employment 1960 1968 1975 1,705,350 2,064,000 2,316,160 140,860 187,655 231,985 9,585 15,000 23,045 26,245 33,360 40,950 51,095 65,380 67,295 2,050 3,105 4,820 410 590 820 8,090 11,360 16,710 43,385 58,860 78,345 120,420 141,985 173,725 169,350 237,375 284,035 40,655 62,190 74,900 3,565 5,305 7,655 125,130 169,880 201,480 113,655 133,925 164,030 209,820 275,660 335,210 68,850 87,370 97,700 31,035 41,235 54,560 13,325 17,890 20,700 57,100 80,275 102,135 4,155 5,410 5,685 6,460 8,680 10,675 28,895 34,800 43,755 444,370 618,000 656,450 65,880 80,570 101,495 2,420 2,675 3,020 172,850 269,390 271,280 80,925 119,405 111,890 122,295 145,960 168,765 195,800 239,615 275,550 79,100 85,655 93,300 13,300 16,655 17,340 31,935 46,985 58,910 71,465 90,320 106,000 90,225 95,320 93,430 220,850 134,465 101,745 TABLE 5 Annual Growth Rate (Pet.) 1960-1968 1968-1975 Total Job Opportunities and Percent Distribution By Broad Occupational Group in North Carolina 1969-1975 2.4 3.6 5.5 3.0 3.1 5.1 4.5 4.2 3.8 2.1 4.2 5.2 4.9 3.9 2.1 3.4 3.0 3.5 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.7 2.3 4.1 2.5 1.3 5.5 4.8 2.2 2.5 1.0 2.8 4.8 2.9 0.7 -6.1 1.6 3.0 6.0 3.0 0.4 6.2 4.7 5.5 4.1 2.9 2.6 2.7 5.2 2.4 2.9 2.8 1.6 4.0 2.1 3.4 0.7 2.9 3.3 0.9 3.3 1.7 0.1 -0.9 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.6 3.2 2.3 -0.3 -4.0 Total, All Occupations Prof., Tech. & Kindred Mgrs., Officials, & Propr. Clerical & Kindred Sales Workers Craftsmen, Foremen & Kindred Operatives & Kindred Service Workers Laborers, Exc. Farm & Mine Farmers & Farm Workers Expansion Replacement Total Needs Needs Job Opportunities (Number) (Number) (Number) (Percent) 252,160 362,260 614,420 100.0 44,330 36,525 80,855 13.2 31,740 19,780 51,520 8.4 46,660 59,605 106,265 17.3 30,105 25,670 55,775 9.1 59,550 27,715 87,265 14.2 38,450 81,710 120,160 19.5 35,935 62,060 97,995 15.9 -1,890 9,735 7,845 -32,720 39,460 6,740 ESC QUARTERLY ANALYSTS SUPPLY LOCAL LABOR MARKET INFORMATION By JOHN M. BENNETT Labor Market Analyst, Asheville Employment Security Commission The labor market analyst is pri-marily involved in the collection, compilation, analysis, and reporting of labor market information. Labor market analysts work in local offices and cover a geographical area of the State or work in the central ESC office with responsibilities for obtaining and evaluating data pertaining to the many facets of manpower utilization. The field of work of the labor market analyst has expanded greatly since the outbreak of World War II. It has evolved from part-time assign-ments of rather rudimentary reports to a line of full-time complexities. Only six local offices in the State are assigned labor market analysts. These are Asheville, Charlotte, Durham, Greensboro, High Point and Winston-Salem. Needs in the balance of the State are handled by personnel attached to the central office. Although labor market analysts assigned to the field are under the direct supervision of the local office manager, they are functionally super-vised through the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research. The Manpower Administration has a system of periodic—monthly, bi-monthly, semi-annual, and annual — area manpower reports. Some 150 major labor areas over the United States participate in this program, including four in North Carolina. These are the Asheville, Charlotte, Durham, and Greensboro-High Point-Winston-Salem labor areas. Best known of these reports is the Area Manpower Newsletter because of its wide distribution to employers, agencies, groups and the general public. The newsletter is prepared bi-monthly and usually consists of a one page summary and a statistical table comparing the current situation with past periods and indicating the prob-able outlook for employment and unemployment. Another labor market information tool is the Labor Area Summary (LAS). This is a brief narrative report on area employment and unemploy-ment trends and manpower problems together with one or more statistical tables. This report is also prepared bimonthly, but on alternate months from the newsletter. This product is intended for internal use within the Manpower Administration-State Employment Security system. It is designed to summarize statistical and other area data needed for the opera-tion of federal area assistance and manpower programs and for the classi-fication of areas according to relative labor supply. New and expanded manpower, vocational education, and anti-poverty programs which have been initiated over the past few years have made even more urgent the need of a com-prehensive system of local area labor market information. The Area Man-power Review (AMR) is an analytical and statistical report designed to summarize manpower developments and problems in the area. The report covers developments for the area as a whole, and to the extent available for specific sections within the area where manpower and unemployment prob-lems are concentrated. The AMR is intended for use both in Employment Security and Man-power Administration operations and for public distribution to manpower and community planners, educators, anti-poverty organizations, local and State officials, business, labor, and community leaders, and others who need accurate and timely job market information for decision-making pur-poses. Within the Employment Security system, data and analysis con-tained in the Area Manpower Review are needed to carry out local, state, regional and national responsibilities under existing human resources, man-power development, and manpower utilization programs to alleviate local unemployment. The Annual Manpower Planning Report (AMPR) is another comprehen-sive product prepared by the labor market analyst. It is intended to provide at least the minimum informa-tion required for annual overall manpower planning, on a State and area basis, with respect to the dis-advantaged and other groups in need of employment-related assistance. It is designed for use at the area and State levels in connection with the CAMPS planning system, the development of local office and State plans of service, and for planning under Model Cities, CEP, WIN, and similar programs. The report is designed to help identify and analyze the characteristics and prob-lems of significant groups making up the total "universe of need for man-power services". Although numerous sources of information are required for the series of area manpower reports, the basic document is the NC-30A. T*- : Id a monthly shuttle-type report from employers providing confidential establishment trends on current employment and outlook which, in turn, are developed into industry trends. These monthly trends are benchmarked and revised annually, usually at the turn of the year when establishment trends are available on a much larger sample from unemploy-ment insurance tax reports and other sources. Other important indices and tools used come from records of persons filing claims for unemploy-ment insurance, work applications on file in the local office, census records, special studies, and handbooks on employment security research methods. All ^State Employment Security Agencies in the United States used stardardized statistical methods in their analyses to assure comparable products. Some reports are required from all offices in the State. Most of these are assigned to the labor market analyst in those offices having one. The quarterly RS-50 report is one of these. This Industrial Expansion Labor Potentials report is designed for use in estimating the number of recruitable experienced manufacturing workers, other experi-enced workers and the inexperienced but referrable and trainable workers in each county served by the office. The RS-50 report serves the local office, the State office, and the Department of Natural and Economic Resources as a uniform reference source for current labor availability. This information is frequently requested by chambers of commerce, other agencies, branches of government, utilities, and others work-ing with industrial prospects. Local offices also report on new, proposed and expanding manufactur-ing operations in their area, another product handled by the labor market analyst. This report provides the State office and the Department of Natural and Economic Resources with factual information concerning these firms. The information is essential to effec-tive planning operations. The Bureau of Employment Security Research conducts wage rate surveys and fringe benefit studies to provide information often requested by existing North Carolina firms, new firms considering North Carolina plant locations and other requests for data of this nature. The LMA assists the Bureau in the collection of data for these studies in assigned counties. Reports prepared by the labor market analyst take from a few hours (See ANALYST, Page 38) ESC QUARTERLY The Job Opportunities Labor Turn-over Statistics Program (JOLTS) is a cooperative federal-state venture supported by the Manpower Adminis-tration and the Bureau of Labor Statis-tics under which the North Carolina Employment Security Commission collects data from a representative sample of employers. At the present time, approximately 1,100 sample employers in the mining and manu-facturing industries voluntarily report confidential data monthly to the Bureau of Employment Security Research concerning job vacancies, accessions, and separations. In the years prior to the establish-ment of the cooperative BLS-State program, labor turnover reports were collected directly from employers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As state agencies began to participate in the program, they took the responsi-bility for collection of data from sample establishments in their respec-tive areas. In May, 1956, the Employ-ment Security Commission of North Carolina assumed responsibility for carrying out the Cooperative Labor Turnover Statistics program in North Carolina. The data collected under this program fulfilled a need for such infor-mation by the State ESC and also provided BLS in Washington with turnover data needed for national summaries. This arrangement elimi-nated duplicate requests to employers for labor turnover statistics. The North Carolina program started with 350 establishments participating. Early in 1957 the sample was expanded to include as many of the reporters in the BLS Current Employment Statistics (790) reporting sample as possible. Later, some further expansions were made to include manufacturing and mining firms not CARPENTER CALL IT JOLTS EMPLOYERS FURNISH INFO ON OPENINGS, QUITS AND HIRES By LOUISE CARPENTER ES Research Analyst included in the other two groups. In January, 1969, the program was changed to include job openings data. With the addition of job openings data to the program, the new name "JOLTS" was adopted. The primary objectives of the JOLTS program is the preparation of current monthly estimates of the number and rate of job openings and the rate of labor turnover. Labor turnover rates measure the movement of workers into and out of pay status. This movement is expressed as the number per hundred employed during the pay period including the twelfth of the month. By the use of labor turnover statistics, not only can the net movement of workers into and out of jobs be measured, but also it may be determined whether the job market is tight, as in recessionary periods, or loose, as in periods of expansion when a labor shortage may exist. The accession rate measures the rate at which workers are hired; the new hire rate measures the rate at which workers are hired exclusive of transfers and recalls. The total separa-tion rate measures the rate at which employees are separated from pay status. This measure includes the quit rate which measures the rate at which workers voluntarily leave their jobs and layoff rate which measures the rate at which workers are separated from their jobs by the employer, pri-marily for the purpose of adjusting production. Also included in the separation rate are discharges, retire-ments, deaths, and transfers to other establishments of the same company. The job openings rate is the number of job openings divided by the sum of total employment plus job openings. The data also supplement the published statistics on employment since labor turnover data measure gross volume of changes in employ-ment during the calendar month, whereas the statistics on the number of people employed measures the difference between employment at specific points in time (i.e., the payroll period including the twelfth of the current month and the same period the previous month, or year). There-fore, the information is essential to the proper analysis and interpretation of labor market development, including labor force and employment changes. Labor turnover rates are useful as economic indicators to predict the behavior of the economic cycle. Though seasonal influences and other factors tend to obscure the relation-ship, the following is a theoretical example of what could be expected from labor turnover rates in a model economy during a recession and subse-quent recovery and expansion: The first indication of an economic downturn is a decline in the accession rate, followed closely by a decline in the quit rate as workers realize that jobs are becoming more difficult to obtain. The next sign is a rise in the layoff rate to such a point that separa-tions exceed accessions. As soon as the layoff rate begins to rise, the new hire begins to comprise a smaller and smaller proportion of the total acces-sion rate. At the very bottom of the reces-sion, all labor turnover rates are very low, and quits and new hires are nearly nonexistent. Employers may be operating with a bare minimum of employees, and some firms may operate only on alternate weeks. The first sign of an economic upturn is the lowering of the layoff rate, followed next by an increase in the accession rate as employers require more workers. The far greater part of accessions will be recalls of previously laid off workers. As the latter stage of the recovery is reached, the new hire rate will begin to edge over the 50 percent mark because the number of previously laid off workers proves inadequate to meet the demand. As the new hire rate rises above the 50 percent mark, the quit rate will also rise as workers realize that other jobs are available. If the expansion continues beyond this point, the layoff rate remains very low, but the quit rate continues to rise slowly. The new hire rate approaches the total accession rate as the labor shortage becomes acute, and many people previously regarded as unquali-fied or who have not been able to meet arbitrary requirements are then hired. The durable goods group is more susceptible to the business cycle than nondurable goods manufacturing. Also, while activity in durable goods 10 ESC QUARTERLY Commissioners hvnry b- kendall. cna illy earl andrews EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION NORTH CAROLINA Bureau of Employment Security Research i L. HUNLEY r p. o. box sag RALEIGH. NORTH CAROLINA 27602 Lu-Lu Fashions, Inc. Anytown North Carolina L J ATTENTION: PERSONNEL DIRECTOR Gentlemen: For your information and use, we are showing below your firm's turnover rates for the first six months of 1971 as compared with similar rates for your industry in the State. Average Monthly Rates For: Average Turnover Rates For First Six Months'of 1971 Separations Accessions Total Quits Dis-charges Lay-offs Other Total New Hires Other Your Firm -- Confidential 3.7 3.1 * A _2 5-9 2.3 3.6 # Your Industry in N. C. h.7 3.8 .6 .2 .1 5-3 k.k .9 t Apparel (SIC 23) * None or less than .05 We are glad to be of assistance in making these figures available. Sincerely, Donald A. Brande BLS Cooperating Representative Prepared By: EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION OF NORTH CAROLINA IN COOPERATION WITH U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Manpower Administration Here's an example of the letter used by analysts seeking employer informa-tion on job openings, accessions and separations. Information gathered in this manner is kept confidential but the findings in total are summarized. Over 1,100 employers in North Carolina are participating in this program with the Employment Security Commission. manufacturing tends to lead the business cycle in a period of time, non-durables tend to have an activity level more nearly coincident with the business cycle. Labor turnover rates are useful indicators of the dependability of the labor supply in the State. When employers study an area with the view of locating a new factory there, they are very interested in the labor turn-over rates and how these rates compare with other parts of the coun-try. The average turnover rates for an industry are used by employers as yardsticks with which to compare their own firm's individual experience. Most employers strive for a minimum turnover, since training new workers can be expensive. If a firm's quit rate is unusually high, the employer maywish to study the situation and find out the reasons. In general, employers use turnover data in planning for the orderly recruitment and maintenance of adequate personnel. In 1963 each participating employer was sent a semi-annual com-parison of his firm's individual labor turnover experience with that for his industry in the State. Each participant was asked to indicate if they would like to receive the comparison on a regular basis and to make any comments they would. Some of the comments were: "This is an excellent report and we would like to have all of our North Carolina plants represented ..." "This information is of great interest to us ... " "This is exactly what we need and will be help-ful in controlling our turnover." and "This seems to be interesting informa-tion we could very well use." The response was so favorable that this service has been continued ever since and has been responsible for the acqui-sition of many new employers in the program. The Bureau of Employment Security Research role in the JOLTS program includes the following activi-ties: 1. Maintaining sample adequacy. If the sample appears deficient, the list of essential reporters is checked against the listing tabulation. Any reports received subsequent to tabu-lating the data are added to the tabulated totals to remedy the deficiency. 2. Soliciting new employer reporters. Special efforts are made to expand the sample to meet the criteria in the "Instructions For Current Job Openings Labor Turnover Statistics Program." 3. Mailing monthly report schedules to employers and following up on reports not received on time. This involves second request postals, duplicate schedules, letters and flyers. 4. Editing individual reports from employers to assure accuracy. Any unusual activity is coded on our office record cards so that we can inspect the tabulation later in regard to large lay-offs, closings, quits, etc. 5. Corrections. All corrections are posted on office cards and a form is sent to BLS—Washington, transmitting corrections. 6. Transmitting punch cards to Washington. After the data are posted on the office record cards they are sent to data processing to be key punched. The punch cards are sent to Washington twice a month (due dates are set by BLS Washington). 7. Estimating rates. Data are inflated to the universe and rates are computed on an industry basis for job openings and labor turnover. Monthly rates and annual averages are furnished to BLS. 8. Analyzing and publishing data. After the rates are computed the data are analyzed using information furnished by reporters. Two releases are prepared each month, "Job Open-ings in Greensboro-Winston-Salem- High Point SMSA," and "Labor Turn-over in North Carolina Manufacturing Industries." These are mailed to each participating firm as well as to almost 1,000 other firms requesting the releases. Since individual establishment data are confidential and may be used only for statistical purposes, we must be careful not to publish in such a manner that data relating to an individual company can be identified. 9. Six-month rate comparison. Each participant is sent a table show-ing his firm's semi-annual turnover rates as compared with the rates for his industry in the State. 10. Records and Reports. Indus-trial classification comparisons are (See JOLTS, Page 38) ESC QUARTERLY 11 RESEARCH CENTER Develops Techniques To Measure Labor Market Information By PRESTON JOHNSON Chief, Regional Job Market Research There are only two Job Market Research Centers in the United States, one here in North Carolina and the other in Pennsylvania. The North Carolina center was established in 1966 as a part of the Bureau of Employment Security Research. A primary purpose of the Job Market Research Center is to originate and conduct research in the field of man-power information. The results of this research are then used to develop improved techniques for measuring employment and unemployment in states and areas. One of the important responsibili-ties of State Employment Security agencies is the estimation of employ-ment and unemployment data on a periodic basis for states and areas. Such information is of vital concern to federal, state and area administrators for policies and programs as economic conditions change over time, and in determining the eligibility of areas for assistance under various federal pro-grams which condition eligibility on the relative severity and duration of unemployment within areas. These estimates of employment and unemployment are prepared on a uni-form and consistent basis in all states and labor market areas by applying methods and techniques prescribed by the Manpower Administration for developing such estimates. These methods and techniques stem from a variety of sources, among the most important of which are data derived from special surveys and investigations conducted in past periods on various segments of the labor force. It is, of course, of extreme impor-tance that such estimates be as accurate as possible so that manpower programs may be administered with emphasis on major problems, and so that federal economic assistance may be directed to those areas in which such assistance is most vitally needed. To insure such accuracy, it is necessary that the methods and techniques used JOHNSON be investigated on a continuing basis for applicability to current situations and that they be revised or new techni-ques developed when investigations reveal the need for change. Recognizing the need for con-tinuing research in this field, the Congress appropriated funds in 1966 to improve employment and unem-ployment estimating techniques. Rather than distribute the funds to many states, as had been done in previous years, the Manpower Administration established two Job Market Research Centers. The North Carolina Center was allocated six posi-tions: a chief of the Job Market Research Center, a statistician, two labor market analysts, a stenographer, and one position allocated for data processing functions. Although the Job Market Research Center is staffed by State agency personnel, it's activities are in close communication with Manpower Administration officials who also assist in providing needed training, guidance, and work assignments. The center is accountable for finished research products (new research and tech-niques) of a substantive nature, adaptable for use in other states. Specific techniques, methods, and areas to be investigated are agreed upon in periodic meetings in Washing-ton, D.C. (about every six to eight weeks) between federal and Job Market Research Center personnel. It is then the responsibility of the research center to determine what data should be collected and/or extracted from existing resources which bear on the technique or method under investi-gation; to formulate and plan the statistical and/or methodological research necessary to acquire the needed data; to develop the necessary letters, questionnaires, forms, etc., for collecting data from employees, job applicants, claimants, local employ-ment offices and other groups; to develop the sampling techniques and survey procedures necessary for imple-menting the research study; to instruct and provide leadership to local office personnel in data collection and recording procedures when local employment offices are involved in the data collection process; and, in some cases, to assist in or assume complete responsibility for the collection of data. Also involved are the processing and organization of the collected data into pertinent formats designed to emphasize the important results of the research study; the application of various statistical reliability measures which characterize the data; the writing of reports describing research findings and their implications on cur-rent estimating techniques; and the development of recommendations for changes, alterations or modifications in current techniques or methods when the survey findings indicate that such changes appear to be in order. A detailed methodology developed by the Job Market Research Center, describing how to conduct such a research study is an integral part of every study, which provides other State Employment Security agencies with a uniform technique to be used in the event other states wish to conduct similar research. Reports and findings embodying such recommendations are presented to appropriate officials in the Man-power Administration for examination and content. Final publications are prepared which represent the con-sensus of Manpower Administration and Job Market Research Center personnel as to content, emphasis, and recommendations. Also involved is the testing of new or revised techniques for measuring labor force components which arise from such studies, in geographic areas other than those in which they were developed, to ascer-tain their applicability in areas with different degrees of unemployment and/or with different economic and industrial backgrounds. A second major responsibility of the Job Market Research Center is to conduct operations research studies. Such studies, while embodying much the same techniques, procedures, and responsibilities set forth previously, are designed to measure the extent of the use and efficiency of various operating procedures and programs in use in the Employment Security system. Statistical and analytical results of such studies are made avail-able to administrators at the national and state levels for evaluation and appropriate administrative action if survey results indicate that such action is necessary or desirable. Some specific examples of the type of research applicable to the objectives of the North Carolina Job Market Research Center are as follows : 1. Studies of workers separated from employment covered by the Employment Security Law to determine the proportions who: (a) File claims for Umemploy- 12 ESC QUARTERLY ment Insurance benefits immediately, (b) Delay filing for one or more weeks, (c) Exhaust their benefits, (d) Are disqualified for benefits due to earnings require-ments or, (e) Are disqualified for benefits due to type of job separa-tion (i.e., quit, discharged, etc.). 2. Household surveys in small areas measuring labor force com-ponents designed to build a body of data necessary for developing relationships be-tween the components of employment and unemployment in rural areas. 3. Development of methods and techniques to estimate unem-ployment in sub-areas of Standard Metropolitan Statisti-cal Areas, neighborhoods within large cities, and parts of counties. 4. Development of techniques for identifying the characteristics of workers residing in disadvan-taged areas, and methods to esti- ' mate underemployment in these areas. 5. Other pilot programs or statis-tical techniques which relate to labor force research, employ-ment or unemployment estimat-ing, and employment service operations. Squeeze a fewdollars intoyour future. lake stock in America. NowBonds paya bonus at maturity Bureau Researches Recruitable Labor In Each Tarheel County By HORACE C. AUSLEY ES Research Ayalyst In an effort to meet inquiries about available labor in North Carolina, the Bureau of Employment Security Research prepares a quarterly release of estimated recruitable labor by county. The publication is a summary of estimates of labor potentials pre-pared for each of North Carolina's 100 counties by the local Employment Security Commission offices through-out the State. The local offices serving the respective county or counties make their best estimate of persons who might reasonably be expected to accept jobs in manufacturing indus-tries. The types of worker generally included in these estimates of recruit-able labor are persons seeking work and the potential job seeker. The local office's estimate of the available labor supply includes: the unemployed, per-sons with less than full-time employ-ment, individuals holding jobs which do not utilize their highest potentials, housewives who would join the work force if more suitable work or better job opportunities were made available, workers who are present are com-muting out of the county to work but would take jobs in the county in which they live if the jobs were avail-able, young people who expect to enter the work force after school is completed, and agricultural workers who would take industrial jobs if they were available. It should be noted that only that part of these groups which the local employment office feels could be selected for referral to the employer through an active recruitment effort by the local office, plus that part deemed likely to respond directly to an employers own recruitment efforts, are reflected in the available labor esti-mates. The labor supply data for each county are characterized according to sex, occupational experience, and industry attachment. The quarterly release, "Estimated Recruitable Labor for Industrial Development in North Carolina, By County," summarizes the data into the following three groups: experienced manufacturing workers; all other experienced workers; and the inexperienced but referable and train-able segment. The release also includes an estimate of high school graduates, by sex, entering the work force annually. The completed release is circulated to interested chambers of commerce, industrial development groups, libraries, local Employment Security Commission offices, other state agencies, and others upon request. The quarterly release may be very helpful in indicating to prospective employers or industrial groups the number of workers who would be expected to be referable to industrial jobs. More detailed and comprehensive reports of labor supply estimates can be prepared from the individual coun-ty data, upon request. These reports, called "Estimate of Recruitable Workers for Industrial Expansion," depict the labor supply of a specifical-ly defined area, usually a 25-mile radius from a central town or city rather than for a single county. Prior to the preparation of these special reports, the population percentages of townships within the defined area must be developed. Basically, this procedure entails determining that percentage of the counties' population that falls within the limits of the radii used in the report, 0-15 miles, 15-20 miles, and 20-25 miles. The process is accomplished by the use of North Carolina census maps of minor civil divisions and plastic overlays contain-ing concentric circles, to scale, of the various radii to be used. The percen-tage of population within the selected radii for each county included are then applied to the respective county esti- AUSLEY ESC QUARTERLY 13 mates of recruitable labor; thus, the estimate of recruitable workers can be derived for the stated radius for the county, countries, or parts thereof. Total population percentages of each county or part are applied to the respective county's total population to determine the population of the defined area. A complete report con-tains such information as definition of recruiting area, total area population, estimates and characteristics of the recruitable labor supply, and a map depicting the geographical area in-cluded. These estimates of potential pro-duction- related workers may be used by industrial and development groups in their efforts to attract industry to the state and to assist in the expansion of existing industry. The estimates are adaptable for industrial use and enable a prospective employer interested in several possible plant locations to examine and compare the labor supply in the several different areas at once. Up to five copies of these estimates are available, upon request, from the Bureau of Employment Security Research. When an employer becomes definitely interested in a particular area but needs more detailed informa-tion about the quantity and composi-tion of the local labor supply, a com-munity questionnaire-type labor sur-vey may be necessary. A community questionnaire-type survey provides the industrial development committee or prospective employer with a more detailed picture of the labor supply in an area. These data can be used to determine the available supply of potential workers which a new firm can draw upon to staff a plant. The sex, age, educational attainment, and residence location, as well as the respondent's current work status and previous work experience, may be determined. The Employment Security Com-mission is glad to assist community groups in planning and developing the labor survey and in presenting the findings. A representative of the Bureau of Employment Security Research can be made available to meet with committees in an advisory capacity to aid in the planning and organization of these surveys. The conducting of the survey itself, includ-ing its cost, must be assumed by responsible local groups, such as: the chamber of commerce, industrial development groups, county commis-sioners, etc. The printing, distribution, and collection of the forms are the responsibility of the sponsoring com-munity groups. When the forms are completed and collected, the Bureau of Employment Security Research will code, tabulate, summarize, and publish the results in a report suitable for presentation to an industry or for use by other groups. Up to 50 copies of the completed report will be furnished to the sponsoring group or groups at no charge. Once the need for a labor survey has been determined, the Bureau of Employment Security Research is notified by the manager of the local Employment Security Commission office serving the area. An initial conference should be planned with the sponsoring group or groups, and it should include other potential partici-pants, such as: newspaper representa-tive^); radio and TV personnel; school superintendent(s); the local Employ-ment Security Commission office manager; and a representative of the Bureau of Employment Security Research attending in an advisory capacity. This meeting also may be attended by the prospective employer or his representative. At this meeting each phase of the survey will be dis-cussed, including areas of responsi-bility; drafting of the survey form; organization, distribution, and collec-tion of the completed forms; adver-tising; and the timing of various development stages. The information collected by using the questionnaire-type survey should not be restricted or limited to certain occupational or industrial segments of the area's labor supply or to a specific industry. For example, if the local group or the industrial prospect who prompted the survey is interested primarily in experienced sewing machine operators, this is not suf-ficient reason to limit the scope of the survey to only include females. It should include all potential workers who might accept jobs in any type of industrial employment. Through proper survey design an extensive industrial profile can be derived. In this way the survey will meet the cur-rent need of a specific prospect and still have value and be available for future use. It should cost but little more in money and effort to survey all types of workers than it does to survey for a specific type of industrial prospect or some specific group. STAR-SPANGLED SAVINGS PLAN WHAT ISA VETERAN? A veteran is someone who has the will to live, to sur-vive. He's self-disciplined and mature. He's had to grow up fast. He's acquired the skills, the technical knowledge, the education, and the ex-perience the Government provides. He knows he has a job to do and how to do it. He's a leader. A veteran knows and ap-preciates the value of life, of work, of success. He's dedicated, moti-vated, and determined. A veteran is the kind of person you want working for you. For information on hiring veterans: See your local office of the State Employ-ment Service. Contact the Veterans Administration for training information. DON'T FORGET. HIRE THE VET! THE NATIONAL COMMITTEE JOBS FOR VETERANS Sign up for U. S. Savings Bonds, New Freedom Shares CONTACT YOUR NEAREST STATE EMPLOYMENT OFFICE 14 ESC QUARTERLY N. C. PARTICIPATES IN NATIONWIDE OCCUPATIONS STUDY By DAVE GARRISON, Asst. Director, BESR In recent years there has been an ever growing need for current and projected data on employment by occupation. Although such informa-tion is essential to effective manpower and educational planning at local, state and national levels, the data which are now available are not considered adequate to meet the needs of most users. It has been estimated that more than $50 billion were spent by federal and private sources for vocational training during 1968 and 1969. Such outlays demand that vocational train-ing programs must be planned on the basis of realistic manpower require-ments. Past efforts to collect occupational employment information in North Carolina have taken the form of periodic "skill surveys" conducted by the Bureau of Employment Security Research. Several such studies were made during the decade of the 1960's. In these surveys Tar Heel employers were called upon to furnish a consider-able amount of detailed data on their current employment and projected requirements for a relatively limited number of key occupations. These employer-type surveys were expensive and time-consuming to conduct, and they could be made only when cooper-ative funding arrangements could be worked out jointly with the North Carolina Department of Community Colleges. Unfortunately there was no provision for a badly needed, permanent, and continuing program of occupational labor market information research. Except for the Commission's periodic "skill surveys" and the infre-quent occupational data from Census, there has been a dearth of authorita-tive, detailed occupational statistics. Now, however, because of a new program which will be known as the "Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Program," North Carolina should soon be well on the way toward the development of a compre-hensive, more effective occupational labor market information program. WHAT IS OES? The Occupational Employment Statistics program is a federal-state cooperative undertaking currently involving 15 state Employment Security agencies as well as the U. S. Labor Department's Manpower Administration and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. North Carolina, along with three other states and the District of Columbia, will join the program in 1972, and, ultimately, it is likely that all states will participate. The OES program involves the collection on a sampling basis of occupational employment statistics. These data will be used in developing more detailed and reliable estimates of occupational employment at the national, state and area levels. The pro-gram provides for coverage of manu-facturing industries in the first year (1971) and nonmanufacturing industries in the second year (1972). The cycle will be repeated every two years. DATE WILL BE USEFUL TO EMPLOYERS North Carolina employers who are asked to participate in OES hopefully will have an interest in the success of the program since the information collected can help assure that public training programs will provide the right training at the right time and, therefore, contribute to the movement of unemployed workers into produc-tive employment. Other benefits to employers are: (1) provide access to current information as to the geo-graphic location of workers according to specific occupational skills; (2) enable employers to compare the occupational composition of their operations with the profile of their respective industries at the national, state or local area level; (3) provide occupational projections of shortage occupations so that employers can take steps to alleviate these shortages through new or accelerated training programs both institutional and on the job. The OES program also is expected to provide occupational information which can be used at the national level for the development and improvement of industry—occupational matrices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has already done considerable work in developing such matrices for 1960, 1967, 1975 and 1980. These matrices are comprehensive tables dividing the total U. S. employment into about 160 specific occupations which are cross classified by 116 different indus-tries. These matrices are actually staffing patterns for the various indus-tries, and can be used in developing projections of future manpower requirements. Our Bureau of Research made use of the BLS national staffing patterns in compiling the data for its publication, "North Carolina Man-power Needs by Industry and Occupa-tion to 1975." An article describing this 1971 study and the findings appears elsewhere in this issue of the Quarterly. STATE MATRICES CAN BE DEVELOPED Approximately 50,000 establish-ments will be included in the national OES sample of manufacturing indus-tries, and between 80 to 100,000 establishments are to be covered in nonmanufacturing. While the national sample will be adequate for the development of state estimates in some industries, it is hoped that with good employer cooperation, North Carolina will be able to supplement the national sample to the extent that state and regional industry-occupa-tional matrices can be prepared. If this does prove to be possible, the state will have the most detailed occupa-tional data ever before available. If successful the OES data will be vastly superior to the too-infrequent Census data which is based on a 20 per cent household sample and which is lacking in occupational detail in such classes as "craftsmen" and "operatives." The OES employer surveys will be conducted by mail to the extent possi-ble and will utilize structured ques-tionnaires, ie, questionnaires on which pre-selected occupations are listed. The questionnaires will also be open-ended to allow employers to add other important new and emerging occupa-tions. Each questionnaire will contain many occupations that are common to different types of industries, but also listed will be those occupational titles which are commonly found in the respective industries being surveyed. Each questionnaire will be accom-panied by occupational definitions which have been standardized as much as possible from industry to industry. Employers will be asked merely to provide the current employment for the listed occupations as well as total wage and salary employment of the establishment. No projections to future target dates will be asked for, as was done under the old skill survey programs. Initially, the OES program in North Carolina will operate with a small staff within the Bureau of Employment Security Research. The OES unit will consist of one Research Analyst II, as supervisor, and four Labor Market Analysts, who will be responsible for collecting, editing and transmitting the occupational data to BLS in Washing-ton. This unit will also develop and publish periodic reports which will relate to the employment outlook in (See OES, Page 36) ESC QUARTERLY 15 In Manufacturing Industries FRINGE BENEFITS By JOSEPH W. RICHARDSON ES Research Analyst Among the many and varied pub-lications released by the Bureau of Employment Security Research are two biennial wage surveys and a biennial study of fringe benefit practices in manufacturing industries. The wage surveys consist of "North Carolina Occupational Wage Rates in Production Jobs" and "North Carolina Weekly Earnings in Nonproduction Occupations." These studies are conducted simultaneously, while "North Carolina Fringe Benefit Prac-tices in Manufacturing Industries" is conducted in alternate years. Data for the surveys are collected on question-naire forms sent directly to sampled employers selected by random, for the most part, from a statewide listing of employers covered by the North Caro-lina Employment Security Law. Some non-covered establishments such as schools, hospitals, and local govern-ments are, however, included in the sample for the survey of weekly earn-ings. Each survey sample consists of the principal industry groups found throughout the State. Additional groups have been added over the years as new and varied products have been introduced and have contributed to the growth of industry in North Carolina. The selection of occupations for review in the production wage survey is based on the frequency of requests and often on the basis of their representativeness in each industry. Some jobs are also selected on the basis of their cross-industry prevalence to enable some comparison of wage rates for the same occupation in different industries. This is particularly noticeable in the survey of weekly earnings whereby all occupations sampled are found throughout all establishments both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing. The defini-tions of the job titles for the survey of production jobs are taken from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles, 1965, and those occupations reviewed in the survey of weekly earnings are a composite of descriptions from the DOT and definitions used by the U. S. Department of Labor in conducting similar area surveys. Wage rates alone are not an adequate measure of labor costs; and since growth in fringe bene-fits substantially increase the cost of doing business, the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research developed a study of fringe benefit practices to be used as a complement to and in conjunction with the study of occupa-tional wage rates for production jobs. Thus, with the economic and indus-trial growth in North Carolina, these data meet an increasing and continuing need of employers contemplating expansion or an initial location within the State. The first study of wage rates for production occupations was released in March, 1957, and the eighth survey in the series was released the latter part of 1971. Until the release of the October, 1964 report (survey period November, 1963), wage data were obtained through North Carolina's Employment Security Commission offices. Most of the offices had the wage data on file for the selected occupations as a result of claims and ordertaking activities. As necessary, the data were verified and brought up-to-date during each survey period by contacts with two or more local employers in the industries studied. The wage data in the summaries were unadjusted and unweighted since, in the first few studies, the number of or frequency of workers by individual rates was not determined. In the survey period November, 1963, the first random sample of firms to be surveyed for the study of pro-duction workers' wage rates was made. The Bureau of Employment Security Research made the selection and data were obtained from the sampled firms by the local Employment Security Commission officers by direct contact. Beginning with the study conducted in December, 1965, questionnaire forms were mailed directly to the sampled firms from the Bureau of Employment Security Research. Forms were return-ed to the local Employment Security 16 ESC QUARTERLY Commission offices and follow-up con-tacts were made from the local offices as necessary. The wage data were then returned to the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research for analysis, editing, and final publication of the results. This procedure has been quite successful since its initiation and has become the general means of collect-ing wage data up to and including the survey of occupational wage rates now underway. Approximately one thousand firms were contacted and asked to participate in the most recent survey. Although many establishments elected not to participate for numerous reasons, over 60 percent of those contacted did respond. The format for "North Carolina Occupational Wage Rates in Produc-tion Jobs" has experienced some modifications since its beginning in 1957, primarily in the area presenta-tion of the data. The difficulties in collecting reliable data and enough data to meet publication criteria develop because of the concentration of the same type of industry in one general area and the sparsity of industry in other locales. Consequent-ly, the scope of areas studied was broadened to include the three main geographical regions of North Caro-lina— Mountain, Piedmont, and Coastal Plains. The North Carolina survey of wage rates in production jobs is presented in three parts, the first part being a state-wide and regional survey of wage rates by occupation. Included are the number of workers surveyed in each occupation, the wage rate range, and the average of the most prevalent wage rate paid. For comparative purposes the most prevalent wage rate average is shown for the Mountain, Piedmont, and Coastal Plains regions along with statewide findings. Part two includes statewide and regional summaries of occupational wage rates by industry, RICHARDSON and part three is a summary of wage rates by occupation for the three geographical regions of the State. The most prevalent wage data appearing in the studies have been adjusted to include the most prevalent rates reported for 90 percent of the workers employed in the surveyed occupations. This avoids some of the distortions in averages which may arise as a result of extremely high or low hourly wage rates. Averages are weighed by multi-plying the most prevalent wage rate for each occupation by the number of workers at each rate and dividing the resulting total wages by the number of workers surveyed. In order not to reveal the rates of an individual employer, all published wage rates represent data gathered from three or more firms and from occupations in which at least three workers are employed. All data are for fully experienced workers including incentive payments resulting from piece work on a production bonus system. Excluded from the study are training rates and premium pay for overtime, holidays, and late shifts. The survey of weekly earnings was begun in 1952. Until 1967 the survey was conducted at the request of and in conjunction with the North Carolina State Personnel Department. The studied fulfilled a two-fold purpose. The studies supplied the State Person-nel Department with wage information for use in reviewing and studying State employees' salaries as compared with those of private industry, and as with all wage data, furnished existing or prospective employers in North Caro-lina a guide in studying the wage struc-ture and patterns in the State. Two studies of weekly earnings, 1967 and 1969, have been conducted solely by the Bureau of Employment Security Research with another in progress. Sampled firms in the latest study totaled over 1,000 with more than a 56 percent response. Occupations selected for review in "North Carolina Weekly Earnings in Nonproduction Occupations" are not restricted to or definable by any parti-cular industry. Rather, the occupa-tions are those relevant to both manu-facturing and nonmanufacturing establishments. Categories of survey jobs include office, technical and administrative, custodial and material movement, and maintenance. The survey of weekly earnings is composed of two parts. Part one consists of statewide summaries of weekly wage scales, average earnings, and average starting salaries in the selected occupations by broad indus-try groups and in selected manufactur-ing industries. Part two lists comparable data for the Mountain, Piedmont, and Coastal Plains regions of North Carolina. All earnings and averages represent the amount earned in a normal full-time workweek with-out regard to the number of hours worked. Data are in terms of straight-time earnings and do not reflect over-time, shift differentials, or bonus payments. Only occupations surveyed and found to exist in three or more employing establishments with three or more employees are included; there-by, individual salaries for one firm are in no way revealed. The first study of fringe benefit practices in manufacturing industries was released in 1959, and the fifth study of the series was released in 1970. The study is useful as a comple-ment to the wage survey of production jobs and is helpful in providing information influencing labor costs of the principal manufacturing industries in the State. Differences of opinion often arise regarding just what constitutes fringe benefits. Some individuals consider legally required payments such as workmen's compensation, social security, and unemployment insurance as fringe benefits. Still, others may regard shift differentials and overtime premium pay as fringe benefits. The Bureau of Employment Security Research's "North Carolina Fringe Benefit Practices in Manufacturing Industries" defines certain benefits provided production employees by North Carolina firms and lists the major fringe benefits which are not required by law and reflects to what extent the sampled firms provide these benefits. The fringe benefits studied are those considered to include the major benefits provided by most manufacturing establishments. Items such as time off with pay for jury duty, military training, or other pay-ments occuring at infrequent intervals and constituting only a minor propor-tion of overall costs, are excluded from the study. Legally required bene-fits as well as those applicable only to the administrative, executive, pro-fessional, sales, and office personnel are not included. Findings resulting from a random sample of manufactur-ing establishments are presented to show the number of sampled firms which did or did not provide the bene-fits to the production worker. Benefits provided by each industry can be compared with the statewide results with further breakouts of the textile and apparel industries whereby the benefits provided by a selected segment of the respective industry may be compared with the entire industry. With continuing growth and industrialization in North Carolina, wage data and fringe benefit practices will continue to assume their roles in providing prospective employers with an indication of some of the costs prevailing and necessary to the opera-tions of a manufacturing establish-ment. ESC QUARTERLY 17 EXPERIENCE RATING Unique Feature of North Carolina Law Finances Unemployment Insurance, Provides Tax Savings to Tarheel Employers By STANHOPE DUNN ES Research Analyst In a consideration of any govern-ment program, two of the most important things the employer, or whoever is involved, wants to know are: "How much will it cost me? And what will I get out of it?" Let's stop for a moment, therefore, and analyze the Unemployment Insurance program in North Carolina with respect to its costs and benefits; and in studying cost, we will concern ourselves especially with the Experience Rating method of financing the program. Since the beginning of the Unemployment Insurance program in 1938 through December 31, 1970, the Employment Security Commission has collected $943.9* million in contri-butions (taxes) from insured em-ployers, and its Unemployment Insurance fund has been credited with interest totaling $168. 5 2 million. The agency has paid out unemployment benefits totaling $698.3 million, and on December 31, 1970, had a reserve fund balance of $414,112,096 avail-able for future benefits. This reserve was equal to 9.56 percent of North Carolina's taxable wages reported to the agency for the 12 months period ended June 30, 1970, the highest reserve-to-taxable-wage ratio in the nation and compared with the average for all states of only 6.39 percent. Georgia, with a ratio of 9.19 percent, was the only other state having a ratio in the nine percent range. Following Georgia, only seven other states had a ratio of eight percent or better. Therefore, North Carolina is the leading state in the nation in this measure of reserve fund adequacy. This is all to the good, but what about the average contribution rate and benefit cost rate over an extended period which made this high reserve ratio possible? What price did employers pay to accumulate such a healthy reserve? During the decade, 1961-70, North Carolina's insured employers paid an average of 1.35 percent of taxable wages in contri-butions as compared with a nation-wide average of 1.82, which means that employers in an average state paid 35 percent higher contribution rates than North Carolina employers. As a matter of fact, employers in only 18 other states and the District of Columbia paid lower contribution rates on taxable wages than did North Carolina employers during the 10-year period. During this period, the State's average cost rate (benefit disburse-ments) was .98 percent of taxable wages as compared with an average of 1.68 percent for the nation. Only five states had a lower cost rate than North Carolina. But what about now? During calendar year 1970, North Carolina's tax rate was 1.0 percent of taxable wages as compared with the national average of 1.3 percent. With respect to the benefit cost rate, the State com-pared even more favorably; specif-ically, 1.07 vs. 2.07. The State's projected 1971 tax rate remains at one percent despite the 1969-70 "mini-recession." Listed below are several factors that we believe contributed to North Carolina's successful financial exper-ience in the Unemployment Insurance program: (1) Although some states have been more conservative than North Carolina in the administration of the program, the State's program could still be considered conservative with respect to maintaining a healthy rela-tionship between income and outgo, which reflects good administration. (2) In recent years, North Carolina has enjoyed a lower rate of insured unemployment than the national average. Other things being equal (e.g., benefit formula, duration, etc.), the lower the level of unemployement, the lower the benefit disbursements and need for replenishing the reserve fund. (3) The operation of the State's Experience Rating program, which is designed to: (a) insure fund solvency; (b) maintain a stable and the lowest contribution rate level as possible, consistent with fund solvency; and (c) vary individual employer rates in direct relationship to their unem-ployment experience as reflected by their reserve balances. Reduced to the simplest terms, the steps in the experience rating program follow: (1) the "fund ratio" is calcu-lated by dividing the Unemployment Insurance fund (reserve fund) available for benefits at computation date (August 1st) by all taxable wages for payroll year ending June 30 preceding the computation date. (2) The Law 18 ESC QUARTERLY provides for nine "Fund Ratio Sched-ules" (ranges of ratios), the lowest range being below 2.5 percent (Schedule A), and the most favorable range starting at 9.5 percent (Schedule I). Between these extremes are seven intermediate ranges applicable to schedules B through H. Each of these schedules provides a different set of contribution rates for assignment to individual employers depending upon the range in which their reserve ratios fall. (3) It follows, therefore, that the final step in the Experience Rating process is to calculate the reserve ratio of every active employer's account which is used in determining his assigned contribution rate within the applicable rate schedule. An em-ployer's credit (positive) reserve ratio is the quotient obtained by dividing the credit balance in his account as of July 31 of each year by his total taxable payroll for the 3-year period ending June 30 preceding the compu-tation date. The debit (negative) ratio of each overdrawn deficit account is similarly calculated and used in determining from the rate schedule the employer's assigned rate for the following calendar year. Rate notices are normally mailed to employers around November 15th of each year, giving them a financial accounting of their individual reserve TABLE I FUND RATIO SCHEDULES E Fund Ratio Range Applicable Schedule — to 2.4% A 2.5% to 3.4% 3.5% to 4.4% BC 4.5% to 5.4% D 5.5% to 6.4% E 6.5% to 7.4% F 7.5% to 8.4% G 8.5% to 9.4% H 9.5% and up I 1 Unemployment Insurance Fund on August 1st divided by taxable wages for Fiscal year ended June 30th. TABLE II SCHEDULE H RATES Reserve Ratio Range i Contribution Rate Positive Accts. : — to 0.5% 0.6% to 0.7% 0.8% to 0.9% 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.0% to 1.1% 2.1 1.2% to 1.3% 1.9 1.4% to 1.5% 1.7 1.6% to 1.7% 1.5 1.8% to 1.9% 1.3 2.0% to 2.1% 1,1 2.2% to 2.3% 0.9 2.4% to 2.5% 0.7 2.6% to 2.7% 0.5 2.8% to 2.9% 0.4 3.0% to 3.1% 3.2% to 3.3% 0.3 0.2 3.4% or more 0.1 Negative Accts.: 0.0% to 0.2% 2.9 0.3% to 0.5% 3.1 0.6% to 0.8% 3.3 0.9% to 1.1% 3.5 1.2% to 1.4% 3.7 1.5% to 1.7% 1.8% to 2.0% 2.1% to 2.3% 3.9 4.1 4.3 2.4% to 2.6% 4.5 2.7% or more 4.7 Employer's reserve fund on August Is»t divided by his taxable wages for three-year period ending June 30th. DUNN accounts. Voluntary contributions may be made within 30 days after an employer is notified of his contri-bution rate for the forthcoming year. Therefore, whenever a particular employer's reserve ratio is very near the next more favorable range, it may be to his advantage to make a volun-tary contribution in order to move his reserve ratio into that range and thus be assigned a lower contribution rate for the new year. Pursuant to the 1971 amendments to the Law, Schedule H now becomes applicable when the fund ratio reaches 8.5 percent of taxable wages instead of the 9.5 percent limit as in prior years. With the Unemployment Insurance fund gaining at a rate only slightly more than taxable wages during the past year, by the August 1, 1971, computation date the fund ratio had reached only 9.4 percent which was still under the 9.5 beginning range of the most favorable Schedule I. This 9.4 ratio compares with a ratio of 9.3 on August 1, 1970. As a result, the applicable rate schedule in 1972 will be "H" for the first time as compared with "G" rates in 1970 and 1971. In 1972 Schedule H contribution rates for positive reserve accounts range from 2.7 percent down to 0.1 percent of taxable wages. Employers with overdrawn accounts will continue to be subject to contribution rates ranging from 2.9 to 4.7 percent, depending upon the size of their debit ratios. Do many employers qualify for reduced rates under the experience rating plan? Yes, most do. Data from the computation for rate year 1971 (latest available) reveal that 36,193 accounts or 89.3 percent of the 40,517 total active accounts were rated." These rated accounts, however, comprised 97 percent of the taxable wages of all covered (active) em-ployers. Of the taxable wages of these rated accounts, 97.6 percent applied to employers with positive reserve (See RATIO, Page 36) ESC QUARTERLY 19 VALIDATION INSURES ACCURACY IN REPORTS The purpose of the reports valida-tion program is to assure accuracy, uniformity, and comparability in the reporting of statistical data derived from the employment service and unemployment insurance operations. To do this, surveys are made to check the conceptual understanding of local office personnel who are involved in reporting, to identify weaknesses in reporting procedures, and to verify the integrity of basic documents. Such sur-veys involve on-the-spot observations to check reported activities against basic documents. Outside verification of nonagricul-tural job placements is also a part of the validation study. Letters are mailed to a sample of approximately 100 individuals who were reported as placed in jobs by local offices of the Employment Security Commission. These applicants are asked if the local office had been helpful in their secur-ing employment. If the applicant does not reply, or replies negatively, a letter is mailed to his employer. Need For Accurate Reporting Reliable statistical data on the activities performed by the local offices are essential for planning, supervising, and evaluating "these offices; for budgeting staff and equip-ment; for reporting to the public; and for econmic analysis. Complete and accurate operating statistics are basic to any review of local office program operations to determine and correct weaknesses and to maintain a balance of program emphasis. If conclusions are to be reliable, then statistics on which they are based must be valid. Validation had its modest beginning shortly after World War II when the Research and Analysis Division of the Pennsylvania Employment Security Commission conducted a survey of its local office reporting practices. It found that, left on their own, local offices had developed well over 600 different kinds of tally sheets and report forms for transcribing data to required statistical reports. All employees in the local office who did any work were in the reporting busi-ness. This idea of each interviewer reporting his own activity is built into the present reporting concept under the Employment Security Automated Reporting System. A uniform methodology for assembling and recording data was developed in order to assist local offices with their report-ing program so that accuracy check By MARYIN VICK Evaluation and Training Specialist and data comparisons could be made. The validation studies were designed primarily to insure accurate and realis-tic reporting and to aid local office staffs with reporting problems. In 1964 the validation program was instituted in North Carolina. In the beginning the North Carolind valida-tion effort was a team approach that developed very rapidly as local offices were quick to adapt to uniform report-ing techniques. Accuracy became a by-word in most offices. Procedural errors were reduced and most errors were caused by reporting data in the wrong reporting period. Managers' complaints concerning reporting subsided as validation of local office activity reports was accepted and recognized as a helpful program. We like to think that validation studies satisfy the need for proper measure-ment of the activities in the various local offices. Verification Of Placements Outside verification of reported nonagricultural placements is an interesting phase of local office reports validation. Many contacted applicants take this opportunity to readily praise the local office staff, while others express derogatory opinions of individual staff members and recom- VICK mend areas of improvement—usually pertaining to unemployment insurance benefits. Employer responses also point-up areas of community acceptance of the Employment Security program in a particular city. Some typical replies from appli-cants or employers are represented by the following quotations taken from respondents' letters. (1) "The referred applicant was hired but before he went to work a thunder storm blew up and he took off and didn't come back." (2) "I appreciate the sincere atti-tude of all those people in the local office as they try to help everybody find a job." (3) "I was referred to two jobs and was hired at both but I didn't have a baby sitter. I still need a job." (4) "They didn't pay me but $3.00 an hour so I quit." (5) "Why can't I get my check." Validation of ESARS Data Validation is not intended to be a "cloak-and-dagger" investigation designed to root out minor deficiencies or to put anyone "on-the-spot"; rather, its purpose is to emphasize the importance of report-ing; to help define any reporting prob-lems; and to assist in correcting those reporting problems. The need for a strong validation program is magnified under the Employment Security Automated Reporting System concept of activity reporting as the prospect for making errors is multi-plied by the great amount of informa-tion gathering that is required in carrying on a viable Employment Security program. Once upon a time an Evaluation and Training Specialist awoke sudden-ly to find himself in a large pasture under a shade tree. There was a rope in his hand. He was confused because he didn't know whether he had found a rope or had lost a cow. The validation of Employment Security Automated Reporting System data as reported by the various local offices is similar in one respect to the above illustration. It is confusing! The results of comparing data found in the Automatic Data Processing master file with entries found on basic source documents fail to adequately convince local office personnel that the com-puter is a dumb machine which does only what it is told by blips on Optical Mark Reader forms. Needless to say, (See VALID, Page 38) 20 ESC QUARTERLY The Bureau of Employment Securi-ty Research is a Joint Service unit of the Employment Security Commis-sion. The Bureau is divided into four units: (1) Labor Force and Wage Studies; (2) Activity Reporting and UI Employment and Wages; (3) Man-power Research and Training and (4) Job Market Research Center. The Bureau of Employment Security Research also has functional supervi-sion over seven area Labor Market Analysts stationed in six local offices. The mission of the Bureau of Em-ployment Security Research is to report the activities of the Employ-ment Security Commission; to collect, analyze, publish, and distribute labor market information; and to complete special studies for the Chairman of the Commission and other ESC adminis-trators for use in program planning, program changes and program improvement. In carrying out the reporting pro-gram a great amount of economic data are collected. The multitude of reports required by the national and regional offices of the Manpower Administra-tion are prepared from data submitted by employers and our local offices. Data for required reports are used to answer requests from employers, col-leges and universities, business organi-zations and others. The importance of using reports data to supply the answers to requests from these organi-zations was recognized soon after the Employment Security Commission became an agency and plans were made to release selected data in publi-cations prepared by the Bureau of Employment Security Research. Many other requests for data from organiza-tions and individuals require special research. This research may require a few minutes to many hours to obtain. In the following paragraphs the publications and reports prepared and Researchers Issue Many Publications Which Supply Labor Force Information By DONALD BRANDE Director Bureau of Employment Security Research released by the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research to fulfill requests for data will be discussed briefly. Other articles in this issue of the ESC Quarterly will cover most of these releases in detail. Each year an Annual Report of Employment Security Local Office Operations is prepared. This report details the major activities performed by local Employment Security offices and presents the information regularly collected for the required federal and state reporting programs in tabular, graph, and narrative form. These data are designed to serve as an aid in evaluating the year's accomplishments of the individual local offices and to provide a record of data for researchers and others concerned with claims and Employment Service activi-ties carried out by local offices. Area Manpower Newsletters are prepared for 16 areas in North Caro-lina. These newsletters are prepared bimonthly for 12 areas and every four months for the other four areas. Employment and unemployment esti-mates of the total work force are provided in these newsletters along with a narrative analysis. A monthly release entitled Employ-ment Security Trends summarizes local office activities in unemployment insurance and employment service pro-grams along with state summaries. The number and location of recruit-able labor is an important data item for any new or expanding industry. To fill this need the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research publishes quarterly a publication entitled Est-imate of Recruitable Labor For Industrial Development in North Caro-lina. The basic data for this report is provided by the local Employment Security Commission offices. A table and map depicting the estimated number of resident workers considered ESC QUARTERLY 21 available for work in new and expand-ing manufacturing industries in each North Carolina county is shown in this publication. In addition to this quarterly release, the Bureau of Employment Security Research prepares as requested estimates of recruitable workers for industrial expansion within a specified com-muting radius for any given North Carolina locality. Included with this estimate is a map depicting the recruit-ment area covered by the estimate; population estimates; and number of high school graduates who have entered the labor force during the past year. Around 1,000 of these estimates are prepared each year by the Bureau of Employment Security Research. An Experience Rating Report summarizing the financial operations of the Unemployment Insurance program administered by the Employ-ment Security Commission is prepared annually. The current experience rating plan is highlighted and data on experience rating, distribution of accounts by contribution rates and the UI Fund condition is included in the report. A Fringe Benefits Study of North Carolina manufacturing firms is conducted every two years by the Bureau of Employment Security Research and the results of these studies are published. A monthly labor turnover publica-tion is released by the Bureau of Employment Security Research and an annual summary is published in December. This report presents turn-over rates for manufacturing and mining industries for the State and the Charlotte and Greensboro-Winston- Salem-High Point SMS Areas. A job openings newsletter for the Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point area showing job vacancy rates for selected manufacturing industries is issued monthly by the Bureau of Employment Security Research. An annual report summarizing the calendar year's employment and wage data of workers insured under the North Carolina Employment Security Law is published by the Bureau of Employment Security Research. These data are presented by major industry group, and by county with industry detail. A quarterly report summarizing wage data of workers insured under the Employment Security Law of North Carolina is also prepared. The data are presented for each county by broad industry groupings. A monthly newsletter presenting statewide employment and unemploy-ment estimates of the total work force is prepared by the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research. An analysis of changes from the one-and-twelve month-ago periods is also included in this publication. Total and insured unemployment rates for the State and the seven Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas are shown. Wage rate studies for production and nonproduction jobs are conducted by the Bureau of Employment Security Research every two years. The wage rate information is intended primarily to provide both existing firms and potential new firms with current wage patterns in the State. One of the most widely used publi-cations prepared by the Bureau of Employment Security Research is the North Carolina Work Force Estimates By County, Area, and State. This study includes quarterly and annual average employment by major indus-try divisions and unemployment for the State, each county, and each multi-county labor area for the preced-ing calendar year. This series was started in 1962. A Weekly Report of Claims-taking Activities is prepared and released by the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research. This report summarizes claims activity by selected industry with a brief explanation of changes in claimstaking activities. In addition to the publications described in the preceding paragraphs, DONALD A. BRANDE, Employ-ment Security Research Director, joined the Employment Security Commission in 1954 as an inter-viewer in Shelby. He subsequently served as an office manager in Rutherdfordton and moved to Raleigh as an occupational analyst in 1961. Brande, 44, was promoted to assistant director of BESR in 1968, and to director in 1969. He is a graduate of Elon College. the Bureau of Employment Security Research staff answers hundreds of requests annually for unpublished data. Many of these requests come from our 58 local Employment Security Commission offices. Em-ployers, other state agencies, banks, industrial development groups, re-searchers, college and universities and students also request both published and unpublished data from the Bureau of Employment Security Research and in most instances, these requests are met. The number of inquiries for information from the Bureau of Employment Security Research totaled 719 for the first quarter of 1971. It is estimated that over 3,000 inquiries for information will be received and answered by the Bureau of Employment Security Research staff during calendar 1971. The Bureau of Employment Securi-ty Research has and will continue to work with other State agencies in developing manpower reports. During the past decade a number of man-power and training needs report has been completed and published by BESR. These studies were undertaken primarily to meet the need for such information by the North Carolina Department of Community Colleges. The two agencies jointly planned and financed the studies. Working relation-ships are maintained with many of the other State agencies concerned with manpower utilization and training. The Bureau of Employment Security Research cooperates with regional development groups by supplying labor market information needed in compiling economic development plans. Local industrial development groups and Chambers of Commerce are provided data on wages, recruitable labor, fringe benefits, etc., for use in working with prospective employers considering North Carolina sites for the location of their new plants or business. The point of this article is to show that the reporting unit of the Employ-ment Security Commission does more than summarize data for federal reports. The data generated by our required reporting program are com-piled into reports and publications so that they may be used by our agency and others concerned with manpower utilization and training. Special studies such as wage studies, fringe benefits studies, occupational projections studies, work force estimates, labor turnover, and employment trends are developed using the information and data necessary for the reporting pro-gram. These reports and publications are distributed free to any organiza-tion or individual and perhaps in a small way compensate those employ-ers covered by our Employment Security Law who sumit those reports necessary and required for our State and federal reporting system. 22 ESC QUARTERLY EMERGENCY EMPLOYMENT ACT NEW PROGRAM ATTEMPTS TO OPEN UP PUBLIC SERVICE JOBS IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT, HOPING TO PROVIDE WORK EXPERIENCE TO UNEMPLOYED AND UNDEREMPLOYED North Carolina's share of the $1 bil-lion Emergency Employment Act (EEA) has given state and local govern-ments a $6.1 million windfall to finance an estimated 1,500 new public service jobs. The idea behind the act is simple: Make immediate cuts in unemploy-ment and improvements in public serv-ices by temporarily subsidizing useful jobs that revenue-starved state and local governments can fund from their own resources now. Provide the new public service employees with job experience which, in the long run, will help them move into jobs in the pri-vate sector when the economy improves or become regular public employees as state and local revenues increase. But if the idea behind the act is simple, making good on that idea is not. In North Carolina—as in many other states—comprehensive plans to get the most out of the EEA windfall are proving difficult to come by. All levels of government were caught napping when this public serv-ice employment program passed into law. Planning has been suffering ever since. The trouble developed because few people expected the Emergency Employment Act of 1971 to get by a presidential veto despite its popularity in Congress. President Nixon vetoed similar legislation in 1970. So the U.S. Department of Labor made no advance preparations for implementing the program. It got little public notice among state or local agencies that might have expected to benefit from it. But when the EEA cleared Congress on July 1, President Nixon took a new position. Faced with growing national unemployment, he not only removed the veto threat; he called for quick implementation—with hiring to begin by Labor Day. At this point, the North Carolina Manpower Development Corporation began a survey to study how North Carolina could and would respond to passage of the act. interviews with a cross section of state department heads and representatives of city and county government turned up a wide range of suggestions on where and how subsidized jobs could be used profit-ably in North Carolina. In summarizing the potential public service jobs turned up in the survey, an MDC research assistant reported: "Most of the people interviewed thought in terms of adding personnel to already existing job areas . . . filling needs such as the shortage of teacher aides and guidance counselors in the school system. ... A few departments had done some thinking about "hiring workers to handle problems which are just becoming recognized—for example, in law enforcement planning, public health, housing and rural development. ..." The MDC survey also showed, how-ever, that out of more than 30 highly placed administrators, fewer than half a dozen knew the specific terms of the new Emergency Employment Act. Of course, none knew how much money would actually be available in North Carolina, how that money would be distributed, or what guidelines would be applied—none of that had been worked out. In fact, it wasn't until August 9 that "preliminary guidelines" became known. Then, at a conference in Washington for governors' representa-tives the first draft of the guidelines was announced. Other details worked out since July by a Labor Department task force began to come out. Over the next few days North Caro-lina learned how its $6.1 million would be allocated. The State, five This article reprinted from the January, 1972, edition of NORTH CAROLINA, official publication of the N.C. CITIZENS ASSOCIATION. cities and 16 counties with popula-tions in excess of 75,000 and the Cherokee Indian tribe were designated as "program agents" to receive direct grants from the Secretary of Labor. The State would be expected both to create public service jobs of its own and allocate money to the "balance of the state"—counties and cities with populations of less than 75,000. With that the program was rolling. On Monday, August 16, a regional meeting was held by the Labor Depart-ment for city and county program agents. Applications were distributed to apply for the first 20 percent of the EEA money. Program agents had until Friday, August 20, to get those appli-cations in the mail to Labor's regional manpower administrator! It was understood that checks would bj mailed back to program agents as soon as their applications were in. And they were. By August 24, the chief of the Labor Department's EEA task force could report that, nationally, $42 million had been distributed to 700 state and local governments to fund 11,000 jobs. Initial EEA hiring in some states beat the Labor Day target date by more than a week. The MDC survey in North Carolina showed planning running far behind. Before the August 9 meeting in Washington, state agencies could only speculate on what EEA might mean to them. Cities like Raleigh and Winston- Salem—where mayors are served by special manpower assistants—could do some tentative planning. But later evidence indicated that few, if any, key officials in North Carolina cities and counties considered the act's possibilities as they wound up their 1971-7 2 budget making—an ideal time to identify spots where subsidized public service jobs could best be utilized. Three North Carolina counties designated as program agents (David-son, Randolph and Wake) missed the regional meeting and almost missed getting in applications for their funds. Wayne County made the meeting but later decided it would rather the State figured out how to use its money. Officials in Gaston County were quoted in the press as wondering why Gaston would get any money in an emergency employment program since its unemployment rate was below 2 per cent—one of the lowest in North Carolina. Time straightened out some of the factual confusion. But the State's experience showed how difficult it was to plan for a program that began as a surprise and was pushed through its first phase as a race against the Labor Day target date. After the Washington meeting for governors' representatives, the State activated its own task force to plan how to create State public service jobs ESC QUARTERLY 23 North Carolina Total to be To Program Agents To State Program Agents. Spent in Each Area for Local Jobs (Figures in Thousands) Government Charlotte $ 239.6* $ 239.6 $ 0.0 Durham 125.8 88.0 37.8 Greensboro 125.8 69.4 56.5 Raleigh 83.9 25.5 58.4 Winston-Salem 520.6 399.8 120.9 Alamance County 149.3 149.3 0.0 Buncombe County 131.8 131.8 0.0 Catawba County 113.8 113.8 0.0 Cumberland County 282.7 282.7 0.0 Davidson County 222.5 222.5 0.0 Forsyth County 47.9 47.9 0.0 Gaston County 101.8 101.8 0.0 Guilford County 137.8 137.8 0.0 Mecklenburg County 83.9 83.9 0.0 New Hanover County 83.9 83.9 0.0 Onslow County 142.1 142.1 0.0 Randolph County 71.9 71.9 0.0 Robeson County 315.7 252.6 63.1 Rowan County 53.9 53.9 0.0 Wake County 83.9 83.9 0.0 Wayne County 111.7 74.5 37.2 Subtotal $3,230.3 $2,856.5 $ 373.8 Balance of N.C. 2,899.7 — 2,899.7 Total $6,130.0 $2,856.5 $3,273.5 * Emergency Employment Act money is allocated to North Carolina in a two-way split. The sixteen counties and five cities listed above are "program agents" eligible for direct grants to create public service jobs under local government control. In four of these cities and two counties, the state is receiving some funds to create public service jobs in state agencies or departments. The state is also receiving $2,899,700 to allocate public service jobs in "the balance of the state"—the remaining counties and cities that were not given direct grants. and allocate funds to the "balance of the state." But the task force's first meeting (August 17) came right after applications were distributed among program agents to be mailed back by August 20. The task force could only designate priority job areas so the State could qualify for the first 20 per cent of its funds. The task force was thus pushed into a position where it had to act first and plan later, if at all. And if this .situa-tion wasn't a big enough obstacle to genuine planning, the MDC survey pointed to others. There was no existing machinery, and no time to perfect machinery, that could develop data to indicate which public service jobs would be most beneficial—either in terms of improv-ing public service or of relieving unemployment. In fact, the survey found no machinery at all (except the task force, itself) to process the hundreds of applications from the hundreds of cities and counties in the "balance of the state" that weren't eligible for direct grants. Under pressure to follow up the first application with a plan to utilize the remaining 80 per cent of the money due the State, the task force had no time to create complicated machinery even after its first applica-tion was filed. It could only minimize the problem of handling applications by naming Councils of Government or economic development agencies as "coordinating organizations" for each of North Carolina's 17 planning dis-tricts. This approach utilizes local views on useful and necessary jobs. But it could only assume that job proposals would meet aims of the act—for example, that at least half of the subsidized public service jobs would become regular locally supported jobs within two years. As for the idea of preparing public service employees for jobs in the private sector, that simply had to be left to work itself out, one way or another. One state, Utah, demonstrated how to minimize the kinds of problems that have plagued sister states like North Carolina. Utah's State Man-power Council (which is similar to the council created for North Carolina by the last General Assembly, but not yet activated) had developed the machinery and the manpower personnel for planning. It had a public service employment plan already worked out last July. It was in a position to do something more con-structive than simply meet a deadline for funding jobs. The Emergency Employment Act of 1971 still promises useful benefits to North Carolina. It can be a godsend to an estimated 1,500 men and women expected to be hired from among the ranks of the North Carolina's unemployed and underemployed. But the MDC survey indicates that the full potential of the Emergency Employ-ment Act can't be realized until priorities are reversed so that jobs are planned before they are created. Administered By State, Local Government Units Create Jobs Under EEA In North Carolina, the Emergency Employment Act is being administered by the Department of Administration. Purpose of the Act is to give unemployed and underemployed transitional employment in public services during high unemployment, and training and manpower services to help such persons move into employ-ment and training not funded by the Act. Special consideration shall be given Vietnam veterans. Public service jobs shall be in such fields as environmental quality, health care, education, public safety, crime prevention, prison, rehabilitation, transportation, recreation, main-tenance of streets and other public facilities, housing, beautification, and other fields of human and community improvement. Wages paid persons in public service jobs shall be highest of federal, state or local minimum wage, or prevailing rate the employer pays for similar occupa-tions. There's no upper limit on salary, but federal contributions cannot exceed $12,000 a year for any one person. Participants must receive the same fringe benefits, working condi-tions and promotional opportunities as the employer's other employees. The Act authorizes for its main program $750 million for fiscal year 1972, $1 billion for fiscal year 1973. Funds may be spent if the national jobless rate goes above 4.5 percent for three consecutive months. Of the funds appropriated, 85 percent must go for wages and job benefits for hirees. The remainder is for planning, evaluation, training, supportive services, and administra-tion. Grantees put up 10 percent in cash or kind. No program will be funded under the EEA that displaces employed workers; substitutes federal funds for other funds being used; substitutes public service jobs for other federally assisted jobs; permits acquisition, rental, leasing of supplies, equipment, materials, or real property; discrimi-nates because of race, creed, sex, color, national origin, political affilia-tion, or beliefs; involves political activities; uses enrollees to build or operate facilities for religious pur-poses, or fails to increase the number of job opportunities over those now in existence. 24 ESC QUARTERLY At least 80 percent of appropriated funds shall go to state and local governments, with no state receiving less than $1.5 million. The remaining 20 percent shall be available as the Secretary of Labor deems appropriate to carry out the purpose of the Act. Hiring priority under the Act shall be given the unemployed over the underemployed. Program participants must be recruited and selected on a fair and equitable basis from among all significant segments of the unem-ployed and underemployed popula-tion. At least one-third of all participants should be veterans of the Asian theater who served in the armed forces in Indo-China or Korea on or after August 5, 1964, and who received other than a dishonorable discharge. Also, special consideration in hiring should be given to the needs and rela-tive numbers of unemployed and underemp
Object Description
Description
Title | E.S.C. quarterly |
Date | 1972 |
Publisher | Raleigh, N.C.: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina,1947-1975. |
Rights | State Document see http://digital.ncdcr.gov/u?/p249901coll22,63754 |
Language | English |
Digital Characteristics-A | 40 p.; 4.53 MB |
Digital Collection | North Carolina Digital State Documents Collection |
Digital Format | application/pdf |
Title Replaces | U.C.C. quarterly** |
Audience | All |
Pres File Name-M | pubs_serial_escquarterly19711974.pdf |
Pres Local File Path-M | Preservation_content\StatePubs\pubs_serial_escquarterly |
Full Text | •15 / THE ESC QUARTERLY VOL. 28 NO. 1-4 RESEARCH AND STATISTICS EDITION North Carolina State Raleigh Library W. fc nr\C.. CHAIRMAN'S COMMENTS Henry E. Kendall Chairman N. C. Employment Seen rit 11 Com miss/on KENDALL One of the most reputable sources of labor market information in North Carolina is the Employment Security Commission's Bureau of Employment Security Research—the topic of this issue of the ESC Quarterly. Directed by Donald Brande, BESR has approximately 40 labor market analysts, research analysts, statistical aides and clerical workers, and occupies almost the entire fourth floor of the Employment Security Com-mission central office in Raleigh. The bureau also has seven labor market analysts stationed in six standard metropolitan statistical areas to submit reports required by the U.S. Labor Department in Washington. Compiling data on almost every conceivable item within the insured and non-insured work force in North Carolina, BESR is a mainstay to industrial development in the State because it is the primary reference point for new employers seeking plant locations. Its studies of occupational shortages have also provided the basis for occupational training in North Carolina by the Depart-ment of Public Instruction and the community colleges system, and its figures on unemployment by region and county establish the allocation of federal funds. About a dozen articles in this issue of the Quarterly, written by research analysts and the directors of the Bureau, illustrated the diversity of BESR's activities, and also its value to the State as well as to the Commission. BESR provides information to numbers of State and private agencies, and with its statistics, North Carolina's economic situation is revealed. Last year's General Assembly passed a bill amending North Carolina's unemployment insurance law. Intro-duced to bring the State program into conformance with federal statutes, the bill was considered major legislation involving an insurance program over 30 years old. Important provisions to the law included extended unemployment insurance coverage to additional workers in North Carolina by establishing liability of each employer employing one or more workers in 20 calendar weeks. About 138,000 additional people were brought under the bill. For years coverage was extended only to employers of four or more workers. An additional 33,000 employers were brought under the law by the 1971 legislation. And for the first time, some State workers will be covered by unemployment insurance. Those employed in State hospitals and institutions of higher learning may begin accruing wage credits to provide jobless benefit payments during involuntary unemployment. Our BESR estimates that 20,000 State employees will be included in this new provision, and a story on the new UI law appears on page 33. An article about the JAVA decision, a unique judiciary move affecting the rights of UI claimants in all states, is included on page 25. A former college placement official expresses his opinions on job opportunities for college graduates, page 31, and the Public Employment Act, a federal program to provide jobs for unemployed and underemployed workers in public service positions, is explained on page 23. THE ESC QUARTERLY Volume 28, No. 1-4, 1972 Issued at Raleigh, N. C, by the EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION OF NORTH CAROLINA Commissioners P. R. Latta, Raleigh; Charles L. Hunley, Monroe; Henry E. Kendall, Raleigh; Samuel F. Teague, Raleigh; R. Archie Parker, Murfreesboro; Walter A. Orrell, Linwood; Harvey D. Heartley, Raleigh. State Advisory Council Public representatives: Hoyle T. Efird, Chairman, Gastonia; Way S. Abel, Canton; Sherwood Rober-son, Robersonville; Mrs. W. Arthur Tripp, Green-ville; Mrs. M. Edmund Aycoek, Raleigh. Employer representatives: Joseph D. Ross, Jr., Asheboro; G. Maurice Hill, Drexel. Employee representa-tives: Melvin Ward, Spencer, AFL. HENRY E. KENDALL Chairman R. FULLER MARTIN Director Unemployment Insurance Division JOHN B. FLEMING Director State Employment Service Division H. E. (Ted) DAVIS Editor Public Information Officer Sent free upon request to responsible individuals, -agencies, organizations and libraries Address: E.S.C. Information Service, P. O. Box 25903, Raleigh, N. C. The Employment Security Commis-sion administers two major State programs — Un-employment In-surance and the State Employ-ment Service. The Employment Ser-vice provides ex-pense free job placement to ap-plicants through 60 local offices of the Commission. Unemployment insurance covers approximately 1,738,000workers in North Carolina, providing them with benefit payments in case of involuntary unem-ployment. The Unemployment Insurance program is supported by payroll taxes contributed by approxi-mately 78,000 Tarheel employing companies, firms and corporations. The Commission has operated since the mid '30's when it was established by the General Assembly as the Unemployment Compensation Com-mission. ESC QUARTERLY I suppose that since our department is the only one in the Commission tagged with that much maligned title "Bureau," the "BESR" must be com-prised of the only true "bureaucrats" in our entire agency. In fact, there are few "bureaus" left in all State govern-ment. Despite its rather ostentatious title, the Bureau of Employment Security Research in reality is one of several "joint service" departments of the Commission. Our chief function is to compile and coordinate most (not all) of the reporting programs for the agency, especially the seemingly never-ending series of reports that ultimately are transmitted to the depositories of the Manpower Administration of the U.S. Depart-ment of Labor in Washington. Being "joint" in character simply means that BESR serves both the Unemployment Insurance and the Employment Service Divisions in reporting matters. While the reporting of the agency's activities has always been our main "tour de force," the years have pro-duced a gradual evolution of the Bureau from a mere reporting unit to a rather diversified research organiza- LABOR FORCE STATISTICIANS BUREAU of EMPLOYMENT SECU RESEARCH By DAVE GARRISON Assistant Director Bureau of Employment Security Research GARRISON tion. In the early years our department was known as "Research and Statis-tics." But when some wag once remarked that "the only things statistics will support are statisticians," we decided to drop the word statistics from our title. The diversification of BESR activi-ties is adequately depicted in the many articles prepared by various members of our staff for this issue of the Quarterly. They have attempted to tell the reader what BESR is all about, and even a perfunctory review of these articles will show that BESR is involved in a variety of programs — many of which have far-reaching influence on the social and economic development of North Carolina. Even so, not all of the functions and responsibilities of the Bureau are covered by articles. Much research goes on behind the scenes, some of which is not generally recognized as having been the product of the BESR, and some of which is never publicly disseminated. For example, research relating to legislative changes is con-ducted as necessary. The benefit formula and the experience rating tax structure of the Employment Security Law didn't get the way they are by "happenstance." Administrative recommendations to the General Assembly are based on alternative costing research studies conducted by the Bureau. Currently the Bureau staff consists of 41 persons. Five additional staff members will join the unit early in 197 2 when the new Occupational Statistics program becomes opera-tional. For the most part, the day to day work performed by the Bureau staff is of the hard-nosed, practical variety. There isn't a single Ph.D. on the staff! Much of what we produce, however, is widely used by economists and researchers all over the country So perhaps in that sense we do help "support statisticians" after all. ESC QUARTERLY Bureau Keeps Tab On Tarheel Workforce By RUTH CRAVEN Employment Security Research Analyst The Labor Market information unit of the Bureau of Employment Security Research is responsible for compiling work force data for all counties of the State. Outstationed labor market analysts in the Asheville, Charlotte, Durham, Greensboro, High Point and Winston-Salem local offices compile current monthly data for nine counties and analysts in the central office compile data for the 91 other counties and for North Carolina. Each year a publication is prepared which shows final employment with industry detail, unemployment, and work force estimates for the 100 counties, the defined multi-county labor areas, and the State. The publica-tion is entitled North Carolina Work Force Estimates by County, Area and State and is released in August of each year. Each edition contains quarterly and annual average data for the most recent calendar year and annual average data for the prior six years. The publication is designed to be a reference source for managers of local offices to use in answering questions concerning employment and unem-ployment in their administrative areas. The publication is distributed to regional and community planning groups, state and federal agencies, research groups, libraries, and private agencies who need employment and unemployment data for making plan-ning decisions. The data compiled for the work force publication are used by the Bureau of Employment Security Research in keeping abreast of unemployment development in all counties. Since federal assistance is provided counties with high unemployment under numerous pro-grams, it is important that these coun-ties be identified. In North Carolina there are current-ly 11 counties classified by the U.S. Department of Labor as areas of persistent unemployment, i.e., unem-ployment above six percent for three out of four of the last calendar years. Thirteen counties are classified as areas of substantial unemployment, i.e., unemployment above six percent for the most recent calendar year and anti-cipated to remain above six percent for the near future. These 24 counties are eligible for benefits under the Public Works and Economic Develop-ment Act administered by the U.S. Department of Commerce as well as for benefits under various other programs of aid for depressed areas. In order for an area to be classified as an area of high unemployment, a report must be submitted to the U.S. Department of Labor describing economic conditions in the area and showing current and anticipated employment and unemployment trends. If the U.S. Department of Labor classifies an area, current bi-monthly work force data are compiled and a semi-annual Area Manpower Review must be prepared and sub-mitted to the national office. The Area Manpower Review contains a narrative section and a table showing current and prior employment and unemploy-ment trends in the area. The report is supposed to access current and antici-pated economic conditions in the area and copies of the report may be distri-buted to community leaders who need manpower information for planning and other purposes. When current work force estimates are required, it is necessary to survey employers since it normally takes six to nine months for information collected on the Contributed Reports required by the Employment Security Law to be processed and tabulated. Current work force estimates are prepared for all the major metropoli-tan areas of the State and for all classi-fied counties. A sample of employers is selected to survey from each industry category and a letter is mailed CRAVEN to these employers. The employment trends in the sample firms are used as a basis for making current or prelimi-nary employment and unemployment estimates. Each year when the tabula-tions of employment reported on the Employer Contribution Reports become available, the preliminary esti-mates are revised or benchmarked. The benchmarked figures are considered final estimates and are used as a basis for making estimates for the next year. The publication North Carolina Work Force Estimates presents final work force figures for all counties. The Bureau of Employment Securi-ty Research began publishing work force estimates for all areas in 1962. The first edition entitled North Caro-lina Labor Force Estimates by Labor Market Area showed March, 1960, and March, 1961 data. The next three annual editions contained data for the month of March only. With the passage of the Economic Development Act of 1965, the need for annual average data became apparent. There-fore, the publication released in 1966 was changed and showed quarterly and annual average data for the year 1965 and annual average data for the years 1962, 1963, and 1964. This edition was entitled North Carolina Work Force Estimates by Labor Area. In 1968 the title was changed again to North Carolina Work Force Estimates by County, Area, and State and the order of presentation was changed so that county data was included alpha-betically in one section, multi-county labor area data was included in another section, and state-wide data was included for the first time. Since 1968 the publications have remained basically the same. The various publications have included supplemental data compiled by other agencies. Population, high school graduates entering work force and per capita income data are some of the items that have been included in various editions. The work force data compiled in North Carolina are designed to be comparable to those prepared in other areas throughout the nation. Detailed methodology are provided by the Man-power Administration, U.S. Depart-ment of Labor. The following section defines and briefly explains work force, unemployment and employ-ment. The civilian work force is defined as the total number of employed and unemployed persons, excluding mili- ESC QUARTERLY tary personnel. All work force estimates prepared in North Carolina are for the civilian work force. Many people are confused about the meaning of total unemployment. Total unemployment is defined as all people who did not work at all during a given week but who were able, avail-able, and during the last four weeks had made a specific effort to look for work. Total unemployment, therefore, includes persons who are filing claims for unemployment insurance for a total week of unemployment, people who have exhausted their unemploy-ment insurance benefits and are still unemployed, unemployed people who were disqualified from receiving UI benefits, people who have worked for establishments not covered by the Employment Security law and were not eligible for unemployment insurance benefits, and people who have never worked or who have been out of the work force for a time and are now seeking jobs. Unemployment for North Carolina and for the 100 counties is estimated following the procedures outlined by the Manpower Administration, U.S. Department of Labor in the Handbook on Estimating Unemployment. These procedures and methods are designed to give unemployment results comparable to those derived for the nation as a whole in the Labor Depart-ment's survey of 52,000 households. The estimating techniques that are available yield the total number of residents of a county that are unem-ployed. No procedures are available for deriving the characteristics of the unemployed. Total employment is defined as the total number of persons who worked for pay or profit during a given week or who worked as unpaid family workers for 15 or more hours during a week. The employment information is derived by using data from many sources. Tabulations prepared from the Employer Contribution Reports required by the Employment Security Law are used as a basic source. Infor-mation on number of people employed by firms not covered by the Employment Security Law is derived from Social Security information on firms employing less than four employees; Railroad Retirement Board information on railroad employees; special surveys of hospitals, colleges, county and city school systems, local government agencies, etc. and releases including Census of Government, Census of Population, and Census of Agriculture. Since the data collected come from establishment payrolls, they reflect employment by place of work. The data differ from census data which reflect employment by place of residence. LABOR MARKET FORECASTS NEEDED IN ERA OF CHANGING MANPOWER By ROBERT S. STEPHENSON Employment Security Research Analyst In a growing economy, the occu-pational composition of the work force, as well as the skills required in each occupation, change through the years. Present manpower needs, there-fore, are an uncertain guide to future requirements. In order to plan educa-tional and training programs to meet future needs at the national, state, and area levels, projections are needed of these changing manpower require-ments. To the extent that education, training and vocational guidance accurately reflect the changing character of manpower needs, im-balances between manpower require-ments and labor supply can be reduced, economic productivity and the earning power of workers enhanced, and structural unemploy-ment minimized. Manpower planning prior to the 1960's played a minor role, except in wartime emergencies, in an assumed labor surplus economy. Planning tended to be restricted to those occupations in which manpower development required substantial lead time and, after Sputnik in 1957, to those regarded as crucial in advancing the nation's technological standing. The need for more extensive occupational data was dramatized by President John F. Kennedy. In his initial Manpower Report in 1963, he wrote, "Manpower is the basic resource. It is the indispensable means of converting other resources to mankind's use and benefit. How well we develop and employ human skills is fundamental in deciding how much we accomplish as a nation. The manner in which we do so will, moreover, profoundly determine the kind of nation we become." Tightening labor markets with some shortages of qualified manpower emerged as a sequel to the soaring economic growth of the early sixties. Manpower planning, based upon reliable information regarding occupa-tional employment needs, aims to enlarge job opportunities and improve training and employment decisions. This is achieved through the power of informed personal choice and calcu-lated adjustment to rapidly changing demand. By means of more intelligent training and career decisions, man-power planning can enhance satis-faction on the job, raise the quality and utilization of labor resources, reduce the cost of industry staffing, and, thereby, increase the output of the nation. Collection of occupational data and its corollary spinoff, the emergence of long-range forecasting techniques, have lagged behind other aspects of the job market information program for obvious reasons. The great expense in collecting data by occupation using the "skill survey" techniques, burden-some employer reporting, technical problems in translating employer job titles into standard occupational nomenclature, and problems in developing acceptable projection techniques are some of the more important reasons for such slow progress. The spate of manpower legislation in the first half of the sixties, however, placed an urgent priority on the expansion of occupational informa-tion. In federally funded manpower training programs, there had to be a reasonable expectation of employment for the trainees upon course comple-tion. Hence, the need arose for a forecasting technique which could STEPHENSON ESC QUARTERLY yield adequate data within available time and cost limitations. The Vocational Education Act of 1963, in allocating millions of dollars for vocational training, specifically gives a mandate to the Employment Security system to provide job market information. State Employment Security agencies with no additional funding and with only the traditional and costly skill survey technique available to them, have in many instances been unable to furnish that information which by law they are obligated to provide. Being handi-capped by a lack of funding, the skill survey approach gave way to the technique now in general use— a "regression-matrix model" based upon a national industry-occupational matrix. North Carolina Manpower Needs by Industry and Occupation to 1975 represents the initial effort of the Bureau of Employment Security Research to develop occupational projections for the state using the least-squares regression technique and a national industry-occupational matrix (table of staffing patterns). Total industry employment data for the years 1958-1968 were used to project the state's level of employment for 197 5. Occupational employment projections were derived by computer application of a programmed national industry -occupational matrix to correspondingly detailed 1960 employment by occupation for North Carolina. Significant changes in the industrial and occupational structure of North Carolina's economy have had and are continuing to have profound effects upon the number and nature of employment opportunities throughout the state. An analysis of total employ-ment in terms of goods-producing and service-producing industries reveals that during the mid-1960's North Carolina became a service-oriented economy. The following table indi-cates that in 1960 for every 100 jobs in goods-producing industries there were 83 jobs in the service-producing TABLE 2 Percent Distribution of Total Employment by Major Industry Division In the United States and North Carolina, 1960 and Projected 1975 Percent Distribution United States 1 North Carolina Industry 1960 1975 1960 1975 Total, all industries Agr., Forestry & Fisheries Mining Contract Construction Manufacturing Trans., Comm., & P. Util. Wholesale & Ret. Trade Fin. Insur. & Real Estate Services Public Administration 1 National employment estimates made by Bureau of Labor Statistics published in Tomorrow 's Manpower Needs. 2 Includes only those workers engaged in activities unique to government. All workers whose activities are also conducted by private industry are classified in their appropriate industry. 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 8.7 4.4 18.1 5.3 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.2 6.1 6.4 5.7 7.0 26.0 23.3 30.6 34.8 6.8 6.1 4.5 5.2 20.0 20.8 16.3 18.4 4.3 4.5 2.7 3.6 22.2 28.1 18.9 22.1 4.8 5.8 3.0 3.4 sector. By 197 5, it is projected that for every 100 jobs in goods-producing, 112 will exist in service-producing industries. This trend is in keeping with our nationwide service-oriented economy. Further analysis of the state's industry employment trends indicates several divergent trends in relation to national forecasts. Of primary impor-tance is the manufacturing segment which is expected to decline in relative importance nationally but increase significantly on the state-wide level. Transportation, communication and public utilities will claim a slightly greater proportion of total state employment, while a decline in rela-tive growth is anticipated for the nation. Employment in agriculture will decline in both the nation and the state, but at a significantly greater rate in North Carolina. Tables 2 and 3 give a comparative distribution of state and national employment by industry, as well as annual growth rates for the survey period. TABLE 1 Many economic factors will also cause notable changes in the occupa-tional structure of North Carolina's work force. An important factor is the varied growth rates among the State's industries, spawned by changes in consumption patterns and shifts in income distribution. Other major factors which con-tribute to occupational shifts are: (a) population growth and significant shifts in age distribution, (b) the increasing trend toward a service-oriented economy, (c) rapid industrial diversification throughout the State, and (d) constant development of new products and processes through tech-nological advances which will affect farm workers and lesser-skilled industrial workers most dramatically. Highlights of past and anticipated developments among the state's occupational categories are presented in Table 4. Estimating job opportunities cre-ated by industrial expansion completes only half the task of projecting total Estimated Employment and Annual Average Growth Rates for North Carolina Industries 1960, 1968 and Projected 1975 Total Employment (Annual Avg.) Total, All Industries Goods-Producing Ind. 1 Percent of Total Service-Producing Ind. Percent of Total 1960 1,705,350 930,605 54.6% 774,745 45.4% 1968 2,064,000 1,026,160 49.7% 1,037,840 50.3% 1975 2,316,160 1,094,590 47.3% 1,221,570 52.7% Annual Average Growth Rate Percent No. of Jobs/Year 1960-68 1968-75 1960-68 1968-75 2.4 1.2 3.6 1.6 0.9 2.3 44,830 11,945 32,885 36,025 9,780 26,245 Includes Agric, Forestry & Fisheries; Mining; Construction; and Manufacturing. Includes Trans., Comm. & Pub. Util.; Wsle. & Ret. Trade; Fin., Ins. & Real Estate; Services; and Government (Public Administration). ESC QUARTERLY labor demand. It is essential, therefore, to also consider replacement demand generated by the voluntary with-drawal, retirement or death of workers in order to obtain total labor needs over a given time span. During the 1969-1975 survey period, 144 existing workers will need to be replaced for every 100 new jobs created by industrial growth. Only four of the nine broad occupational groups reflect a greater need for expansion purposes than for replace-ment. Further analysis reveals that in each of these four groups male workers comprise the greater propor-tion of total employment. Generally, those occupations consisting of predominantly female employment will reflect a considerable greater need for replacement of workers than for expansion. Table 5 illustrates the overall impact of expansion and replacement needs on North Carolina's work force. It further reveals that operatives, clerical workers, service workers, and craftsmen, respectively, will probably claim the greatest number of needed workers. Close scrutiny of detailed occupational data can provide impor-tant insights into possible future shortages and training needs. Admittedly, one area of our latest effort to project future employment needs remains somewhat deficient— that being the estimation of labor supply. Considerably more work needs to be done on both state and national levels to develop techniques for estimating labor supply by occupation. Because of our limitations of funds and inadequate staff resources, no effort was made to develop estimates of supply. However, a comparison of projected labor force date for 1970 and 1980* does indicate that a condition of economic equilibrium may be expected in 197 5. Assuming a four percent rate of unemployment the projected employment of slightly over 2.3 million workers in 1975 for North Carolina coincides with national labor force projections of approxi-mately 2.4 million. Equilibrium, as a long-run economic condition, tends, at least in principle, to be theoretically less demanding than a condition of labor shortage or surplus. It is important to remember, however, that the resultant occupa-tional employment projections are not intended, in themselves, to predict exactly the levels of occupational employment. Instead, these projec-tions suggest that, given the presently developing economic trends and relationships, a particular number of persons will be employed and those who are employed will be distributed to various occupations in the esti-mated proportions. Similarly, on the labor supply side, assumptions must be made regarding the stability or regu-larity of such variables as population, migration, training, output, and the level of economic activity. 1. National BLS projections published in Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, Vol. I, p. 85. TABLES 4 and 5 ON PAGE 8 -, 1 "' TABLE 3 Total Industry Employment in the United States and North Careilina With Average Annual Growth Rates from 1960 to 1975 Employment (Thousands) Annual Growth Rate Industry United States North Carolina 1960 -1975 1960 1975 1 1960 1975 U.S. N.C. Total, All Industries 66,681.0 88,660.0 1,705.4 2,316.2 1.9 2.0 Agric, Forestry & Fisheries 5,816.0 3,875.0 308.2 122.2 -2.7 -5.8 Mining 723.0 640.0 3.5 4.2 -.8 1.2 Construction 4,068.0 5,675.0 96.2 163.5 2.2 3.5 Manufacturing 17,307.0 20,625.0 522.7 804.7 1.2 2.8 Durable Goods 9,749.0 11,995.0 152.0 254.0 1.4 3.4 Lumber & Wood Products 688.0 615.0 38.0 32.2 -.8 -1.1 Furniture & Fixtures 395.0 535.0 45.6 84.4 2.0 4.0 Stone, Clay & Glass 614.0 675.0 10.9 18.3 .6 3.4 Fabricated Metals 1,362.0 1,830.0 9.8 15.0 2.0 2.8 Nonelectrical Machinery 1,499.0 2,110.0 12.4 34.6 2.3 6.3 Electrical Equip. & Supplies 1,465.0 2,035.0 25.7 41.6 2.2 3.2 Instruments & Rel. Prods. 403.0 540.0 0.9 6.2 2.0 10.0 Other Durables 3,323.0 3,655.0 8.9 21.7 .6 5.6 Nondurable Goods 7,558.0 8,630.0 370.7 550.7 .9 2.6 Food & Kindred Prods. 1,813.0 1,710.0 34.5 48.0 -.4 2.2 Textile Mill Products 919.0 890.0 224.8 293.1 -.2 1.8 Apparel & Related Prods. 1,241.0 1,550.0 36.0 100.8 1.5 6.3 Paper & Allied Prods. 597.0 790.0 14.6 18.0 1.9 1.4 Printing & Publishing 1,114.0 1,365.0 10.1 17.3 1.4 3.5 Chemicals & Allied Prods. 833.0 1,140.0 13.2 31.6 2.1 5.5 Other Nondurable Goods3 1,041.0 1,185.0 37.3 41.9 .9 .8 Transp., Comm., & P. Utilities 4,538.0 5,390.0 76.6 120.7 1.2 3.0 Wholesale & Retail Trade 13,365.0 18,455.0 278.1 426.3 2.1 2.8 Finance, Insurance & R. Estate 2,852.0 3,980.0 45.5 83.3 2.2 3.9 Services 14,794.0 24,880.0 323.0 512.7 3.5 3.0 Public Administration4 3,218.0 5,140.0 51.6 78.7 3.2 2.8 National Projections Prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, Volumes 1-4. Includes Primary Metals, Transportation Equipment and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. 3 Includes Tobacco Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Rubber and Plastic Products; and Leather and Leather Products. Includes Government Workers Engaged in Activities unique to Government; Those Engaged in Activities also carrie d on by Private Enterprises are Classified in Their Appropriate Industry. ESC QUARTERLY TABLE 4 Total Occupational Employment in North Carolina for 1960, 1968 and Projected 1975 with Average Annual Growth Rates from 1960-1968 and 1968-1975 Occupational Group Total, All Occupations Professional, Technical & Kindred Engineers, Technical Medical & Other Health Workers Teachers Natural Scientists Social Scientists Technicians, Exc. Medical & Dental Other Prof., Tech. & Kindred Managers, Officials & Proprietors Clerical & Kindred Workers Stenos, Typists & Secretaries Office Machine Operators Other Clerical & Kindred Sales Workers Craftsmen, Foremen & Kindred Workers Construction Craftsmen Foremen, N. E. C. Metalworking Craftsmen, Exc. Mechanics Mechanics and Repairmen Painting Trades Craftsmen Transportation, Pub. Utility Craftsmen Other Craftsmen & Kindred Operatives & Kindred Workers Drivers & Deliverymen Transportation, Public Utility Operatives Semi-Skilled Metalworkers Semi-Skilled Textile Occupations Other Operatives & Kindred Service Workers Private Household Workers Protective Service Workers Food Service Workers Other Service Workers Laborers, Except Farm & Mine Farmers & Farm Workers Employment 1960 1968 1975 1,705,350 2,064,000 2,316,160 140,860 187,655 231,985 9,585 15,000 23,045 26,245 33,360 40,950 51,095 65,380 67,295 2,050 3,105 4,820 410 590 820 8,090 11,360 16,710 43,385 58,860 78,345 120,420 141,985 173,725 169,350 237,375 284,035 40,655 62,190 74,900 3,565 5,305 7,655 125,130 169,880 201,480 113,655 133,925 164,030 209,820 275,660 335,210 68,850 87,370 97,700 31,035 41,235 54,560 13,325 17,890 20,700 57,100 80,275 102,135 4,155 5,410 5,685 6,460 8,680 10,675 28,895 34,800 43,755 444,370 618,000 656,450 65,880 80,570 101,495 2,420 2,675 3,020 172,850 269,390 271,280 80,925 119,405 111,890 122,295 145,960 168,765 195,800 239,615 275,550 79,100 85,655 93,300 13,300 16,655 17,340 31,935 46,985 58,910 71,465 90,320 106,000 90,225 95,320 93,430 220,850 134,465 101,745 TABLE 5 Annual Growth Rate (Pet.) 1960-1968 1968-1975 Total Job Opportunities and Percent Distribution By Broad Occupational Group in North Carolina 1969-1975 2.4 3.6 5.5 3.0 3.1 5.1 4.5 4.2 3.8 2.1 4.2 5.2 4.9 3.9 2.1 3.4 3.0 3.5 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.7 2.3 4.1 2.5 1.3 5.5 4.8 2.2 2.5 1.0 2.8 4.8 2.9 0.7 -6.1 1.6 3.0 6.0 3.0 0.4 6.2 4.7 5.5 4.1 2.9 2.6 2.7 5.2 2.4 2.9 2.8 1.6 4.0 2.1 3.4 0.7 2.9 3.3 0.9 3.3 1.7 0.1 -0.9 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.6 3.2 2.3 -0.3 -4.0 Total, All Occupations Prof., Tech. & Kindred Mgrs., Officials, & Propr. Clerical & Kindred Sales Workers Craftsmen, Foremen & Kindred Operatives & Kindred Service Workers Laborers, Exc. Farm & Mine Farmers & Farm Workers Expansion Replacement Total Needs Needs Job Opportunities (Number) (Number) (Number) (Percent) 252,160 362,260 614,420 100.0 44,330 36,525 80,855 13.2 31,740 19,780 51,520 8.4 46,660 59,605 106,265 17.3 30,105 25,670 55,775 9.1 59,550 27,715 87,265 14.2 38,450 81,710 120,160 19.5 35,935 62,060 97,995 15.9 -1,890 9,735 7,845 -32,720 39,460 6,740 ESC QUARTERLY ANALYSTS SUPPLY LOCAL LABOR MARKET INFORMATION By JOHN M. BENNETT Labor Market Analyst, Asheville Employment Security Commission The labor market analyst is pri-marily involved in the collection, compilation, analysis, and reporting of labor market information. Labor market analysts work in local offices and cover a geographical area of the State or work in the central ESC office with responsibilities for obtaining and evaluating data pertaining to the many facets of manpower utilization. The field of work of the labor market analyst has expanded greatly since the outbreak of World War II. It has evolved from part-time assign-ments of rather rudimentary reports to a line of full-time complexities. Only six local offices in the State are assigned labor market analysts. These are Asheville, Charlotte, Durham, Greensboro, High Point and Winston-Salem. Needs in the balance of the State are handled by personnel attached to the central office. Although labor market analysts assigned to the field are under the direct supervision of the local office manager, they are functionally super-vised through the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research. The Manpower Administration has a system of periodic—monthly, bi-monthly, semi-annual, and annual — area manpower reports. Some 150 major labor areas over the United States participate in this program, including four in North Carolina. These are the Asheville, Charlotte, Durham, and Greensboro-High Point-Winston-Salem labor areas. Best known of these reports is the Area Manpower Newsletter because of its wide distribution to employers, agencies, groups and the general public. The newsletter is prepared bi-monthly and usually consists of a one page summary and a statistical table comparing the current situation with past periods and indicating the prob-able outlook for employment and unemployment. Another labor market information tool is the Labor Area Summary (LAS). This is a brief narrative report on area employment and unemploy-ment trends and manpower problems together with one or more statistical tables. This report is also prepared bimonthly, but on alternate months from the newsletter. This product is intended for internal use within the Manpower Administration-State Employment Security system. It is designed to summarize statistical and other area data needed for the opera-tion of federal area assistance and manpower programs and for the classi-fication of areas according to relative labor supply. New and expanded manpower, vocational education, and anti-poverty programs which have been initiated over the past few years have made even more urgent the need of a com-prehensive system of local area labor market information. The Area Man-power Review (AMR) is an analytical and statistical report designed to summarize manpower developments and problems in the area. The report covers developments for the area as a whole, and to the extent available for specific sections within the area where manpower and unemployment prob-lems are concentrated. The AMR is intended for use both in Employment Security and Man-power Administration operations and for public distribution to manpower and community planners, educators, anti-poverty organizations, local and State officials, business, labor, and community leaders, and others who need accurate and timely job market information for decision-making pur-poses. Within the Employment Security system, data and analysis con-tained in the Area Manpower Review are needed to carry out local, state, regional and national responsibilities under existing human resources, man-power development, and manpower utilization programs to alleviate local unemployment. The Annual Manpower Planning Report (AMPR) is another comprehen-sive product prepared by the labor market analyst. It is intended to provide at least the minimum informa-tion required for annual overall manpower planning, on a State and area basis, with respect to the dis-advantaged and other groups in need of employment-related assistance. It is designed for use at the area and State levels in connection with the CAMPS planning system, the development of local office and State plans of service, and for planning under Model Cities, CEP, WIN, and similar programs. The report is designed to help identify and analyze the characteristics and prob-lems of significant groups making up the total "universe of need for man-power services". Although numerous sources of information are required for the series of area manpower reports, the basic document is the NC-30A. T*- : Id a monthly shuttle-type report from employers providing confidential establishment trends on current employment and outlook which, in turn, are developed into industry trends. These monthly trends are benchmarked and revised annually, usually at the turn of the year when establishment trends are available on a much larger sample from unemploy-ment insurance tax reports and other sources. Other important indices and tools used come from records of persons filing claims for unemploy-ment insurance, work applications on file in the local office, census records, special studies, and handbooks on employment security research methods. All ^State Employment Security Agencies in the United States used stardardized statistical methods in their analyses to assure comparable products. Some reports are required from all offices in the State. Most of these are assigned to the labor market analyst in those offices having one. The quarterly RS-50 report is one of these. This Industrial Expansion Labor Potentials report is designed for use in estimating the number of recruitable experienced manufacturing workers, other experi-enced workers and the inexperienced but referrable and trainable workers in each county served by the office. The RS-50 report serves the local office, the State office, and the Department of Natural and Economic Resources as a uniform reference source for current labor availability. This information is frequently requested by chambers of commerce, other agencies, branches of government, utilities, and others work-ing with industrial prospects. Local offices also report on new, proposed and expanding manufactur-ing operations in their area, another product handled by the labor market analyst. This report provides the State office and the Department of Natural and Economic Resources with factual information concerning these firms. The information is essential to effec-tive planning operations. The Bureau of Employment Security Research conducts wage rate surveys and fringe benefit studies to provide information often requested by existing North Carolina firms, new firms considering North Carolina plant locations and other requests for data of this nature. The LMA assists the Bureau in the collection of data for these studies in assigned counties. Reports prepared by the labor market analyst take from a few hours (See ANALYST, Page 38) ESC QUARTERLY The Job Opportunities Labor Turn-over Statistics Program (JOLTS) is a cooperative federal-state venture supported by the Manpower Adminis-tration and the Bureau of Labor Statis-tics under which the North Carolina Employment Security Commission collects data from a representative sample of employers. At the present time, approximately 1,100 sample employers in the mining and manu-facturing industries voluntarily report confidential data monthly to the Bureau of Employment Security Research concerning job vacancies, accessions, and separations. In the years prior to the establish-ment of the cooperative BLS-State program, labor turnover reports were collected directly from employers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As state agencies began to participate in the program, they took the responsi-bility for collection of data from sample establishments in their respec-tive areas. In May, 1956, the Employ-ment Security Commission of North Carolina assumed responsibility for carrying out the Cooperative Labor Turnover Statistics program in North Carolina. The data collected under this program fulfilled a need for such infor-mation by the State ESC and also provided BLS in Washington with turnover data needed for national summaries. This arrangement elimi-nated duplicate requests to employers for labor turnover statistics. The North Carolina program started with 350 establishments participating. Early in 1957 the sample was expanded to include as many of the reporters in the BLS Current Employment Statistics (790) reporting sample as possible. Later, some further expansions were made to include manufacturing and mining firms not CARPENTER CALL IT JOLTS EMPLOYERS FURNISH INFO ON OPENINGS, QUITS AND HIRES By LOUISE CARPENTER ES Research Analyst included in the other two groups. In January, 1969, the program was changed to include job openings data. With the addition of job openings data to the program, the new name "JOLTS" was adopted. The primary objectives of the JOLTS program is the preparation of current monthly estimates of the number and rate of job openings and the rate of labor turnover. Labor turnover rates measure the movement of workers into and out of pay status. This movement is expressed as the number per hundred employed during the pay period including the twelfth of the month. By the use of labor turnover statistics, not only can the net movement of workers into and out of jobs be measured, but also it may be determined whether the job market is tight, as in recessionary periods, or loose, as in periods of expansion when a labor shortage may exist. The accession rate measures the rate at which workers are hired; the new hire rate measures the rate at which workers are hired exclusive of transfers and recalls. The total separa-tion rate measures the rate at which employees are separated from pay status. This measure includes the quit rate which measures the rate at which workers voluntarily leave their jobs and layoff rate which measures the rate at which workers are separated from their jobs by the employer, pri-marily for the purpose of adjusting production. Also included in the separation rate are discharges, retire-ments, deaths, and transfers to other establishments of the same company. The job openings rate is the number of job openings divided by the sum of total employment plus job openings. The data also supplement the published statistics on employment since labor turnover data measure gross volume of changes in employ-ment during the calendar month, whereas the statistics on the number of people employed measures the difference between employment at specific points in time (i.e., the payroll period including the twelfth of the current month and the same period the previous month, or year). There-fore, the information is essential to the proper analysis and interpretation of labor market development, including labor force and employment changes. Labor turnover rates are useful as economic indicators to predict the behavior of the economic cycle. Though seasonal influences and other factors tend to obscure the relation-ship, the following is a theoretical example of what could be expected from labor turnover rates in a model economy during a recession and subse-quent recovery and expansion: The first indication of an economic downturn is a decline in the accession rate, followed closely by a decline in the quit rate as workers realize that jobs are becoming more difficult to obtain. The next sign is a rise in the layoff rate to such a point that separa-tions exceed accessions. As soon as the layoff rate begins to rise, the new hire begins to comprise a smaller and smaller proportion of the total acces-sion rate. At the very bottom of the reces-sion, all labor turnover rates are very low, and quits and new hires are nearly nonexistent. Employers may be operating with a bare minimum of employees, and some firms may operate only on alternate weeks. The first sign of an economic upturn is the lowering of the layoff rate, followed next by an increase in the accession rate as employers require more workers. The far greater part of accessions will be recalls of previously laid off workers. As the latter stage of the recovery is reached, the new hire rate will begin to edge over the 50 percent mark because the number of previously laid off workers proves inadequate to meet the demand. As the new hire rate rises above the 50 percent mark, the quit rate will also rise as workers realize that other jobs are available. If the expansion continues beyond this point, the layoff rate remains very low, but the quit rate continues to rise slowly. The new hire rate approaches the total accession rate as the labor shortage becomes acute, and many people previously regarded as unquali-fied or who have not been able to meet arbitrary requirements are then hired. The durable goods group is more susceptible to the business cycle than nondurable goods manufacturing. Also, while activity in durable goods 10 ESC QUARTERLY Commissioners hvnry b- kendall. cna illy earl andrews EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION NORTH CAROLINA Bureau of Employment Security Research i L. HUNLEY r p. o. box sag RALEIGH. NORTH CAROLINA 27602 Lu-Lu Fashions, Inc. Anytown North Carolina L J ATTENTION: PERSONNEL DIRECTOR Gentlemen: For your information and use, we are showing below your firm's turnover rates for the first six months of 1971 as compared with similar rates for your industry in the State. Average Monthly Rates For: Average Turnover Rates For First Six Months'of 1971 Separations Accessions Total Quits Dis-charges Lay-offs Other Total New Hires Other Your Firm -- Confidential 3.7 3.1 * A _2 5-9 2.3 3.6 # Your Industry in N. C. h.7 3.8 .6 .2 .1 5-3 k.k .9 t Apparel (SIC 23) * None or less than .05 We are glad to be of assistance in making these figures available. Sincerely, Donald A. Brande BLS Cooperating Representative Prepared By: EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION OF NORTH CAROLINA IN COOPERATION WITH U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Manpower Administration Here's an example of the letter used by analysts seeking employer informa-tion on job openings, accessions and separations. Information gathered in this manner is kept confidential but the findings in total are summarized. Over 1,100 employers in North Carolina are participating in this program with the Employment Security Commission. manufacturing tends to lead the business cycle in a period of time, non-durables tend to have an activity level more nearly coincident with the business cycle. Labor turnover rates are useful indicators of the dependability of the labor supply in the State. When employers study an area with the view of locating a new factory there, they are very interested in the labor turn-over rates and how these rates compare with other parts of the coun-try. The average turnover rates for an industry are used by employers as yardsticks with which to compare their own firm's individual experience. Most employers strive for a minimum turnover, since training new workers can be expensive. If a firm's quit rate is unusually high, the employer maywish to study the situation and find out the reasons. In general, employers use turnover data in planning for the orderly recruitment and maintenance of adequate personnel. In 1963 each participating employer was sent a semi-annual com-parison of his firm's individual labor turnover experience with that for his industry in the State. Each participant was asked to indicate if they would like to receive the comparison on a regular basis and to make any comments they would. Some of the comments were: "This is an excellent report and we would like to have all of our North Carolina plants represented ..." "This information is of great interest to us ... " "This is exactly what we need and will be help-ful in controlling our turnover." and "This seems to be interesting informa-tion we could very well use." The response was so favorable that this service has been continued ever since and has been responsible for the acqui-sition of many new employers in the program. The Bureau of Employment Security Research role in the JOLTS program includes the following activi-ties: 1. Maintaining sample adequacy. If the sample appears deficient, the list of essential reporters is checked against the listing tabulation. Any reports received subsequent to tabu-lating the data are added to the tabulated totals to remedy the deficiency. 2. Soliciting new employer reporters. Special efforts are made to expand the sample to meet the criteria in the "Instructions For Current Job Openings Labor Turnover Statistics Program." 3. Mailing monthly report schedules to employers and following up on reports not received on time. This involves second request postals, duplicate schedules, letters and flyers. 4. Editing individual reports from employers to assure accuracy. Any unusual activity is coded on our office record cards so that we can inspect the tabulation later in regard to large lay-offs, closings, quits, etc. 5. Corrections. All corrections are posted on office cards and a form is sent to BLS—Washington, transmitting corrections. 6. Transmitting punch cards to Washington. After the data are posted on the office record cards they are sent to data processing to be key punched. The punch cards are sent to Washington twice a month (due dates are set by BLS Washington). 7. Estimating rates. Data are inflated to the universe and rates are computed on an industry basis for job openings and labor turnover. Monthly rates and annual averages are furnished to BLS. 8. Analyzing and publishing data. After the rates are computed the data are analyzed using information furnished by reporters. Two releases are prepared each month, "Job Open-ings in Greensboro-Winston-Salem- High Point SMSA," and "Labor Turn-over in North Carolina Manufacturing Industries." These are mailed to each participating firm as well as to almost 1,000 other firms requesting the releases. Since individual establishment data are confidential and may be used only for statistical purposes, we must be careful not to publish in such a manner that data relating to an individual company can be identified. 9. Six-month rate comparison. Each participant is sent a table show-ing his firm's semi-annual turnover rates as compared with the rates for his industry in the State. 10. Records and Reports. Indus-trial classification comparisons are (See JOLTS, Page 38) ESC QUARTERLY 11 RESEARCH CENTER Develops Techniques To Measure Labor Market Information By PRESTON JOHNSON Chief, Regional Job Market Research There are only two Job Market Research Centers in the United States, one here in North Carolina and the other in Pennsylvania. The North Carolina center was established in 1966 as a part of the Bureau of Employment Security Research. A primary purpose of the Job Market Research Center is to originate and conduct research in the field of man-power information. The results of this research are then used to develop improved techniques for measuring employment and unemployment in states and areas. One of the important responsibili-ties of State Employment Security agencies is the estimation of employ-ment and unemployment data on a periodic basis for states and areas. Such information is of vital concern to federal, state and area administrators for policies and programs as economic conditions change over time, and in determining the eligibility of areas for assistance under various federal pro-grams which condition eligibility on the relative severity and duration of unemployment within areas. These estimates of employment and unemployment are prepared on a uni-form and consistent basis in all states and labor market areas by applying methods and techniques prescribed by the Manpower Administration for developing such estimates. These methods and techniques stem from a variety of sources, among the most important of which are data derived from special surveys and investigations conducted in past periods on various segments of the labor force. It is, of course, of extreme impor-tance that such estimates be as accurate as possible so that manpower programs may be administered with emphasis on major problems, and so that federal economic assistance may be directed to those areas in which such assistance is most vitally needed. To insure such accuracy, it is necessary that the methods and techniques used JOHNSON be investigated on a continuing basis for applicability to current situations and that they be revised or new techni-ques developed when investigations reveal the need for change. Recognizing the need for con-tinuing research in this field, the Congress appropriated funds in 1966 to improve employment and unem-ployment estimating techniques. Rather than distribute the funds to many states, as had been done in previous years, the Manpower Administration established two Job Market Research Centers. The North Carolina Center was allocated six posi-tions: a chief of the Job Market Research Center, a statistician, two labor market analysts, a stenographer, and one position allocated for data processing functions. Although the Job Market Research Center is staffed by State agency personnel, it's activities are in close communication with Manpower Administration officials who also assist in providing needed training, guidance, and work assignments. The center is accountable for finished research products (new research and tech-niques) of a substantive nature, adaptable for use in other states. Specific techniques, methods, and areas to be investigated are agreed upon in periodic meetings in Washing-ton, D.C. (about every six to eight weeks) between federal and Job Market Research Center personnel. It is then the responsibility of the research center to determine what data should be collected and/or extracted from existing resources which bear on the technique or method under investi-gation; to formulate and plan the statistical and/or methodological research necessary to acquire the needed data; to develop the necessary letters, questionnaires, forms, etc., for collecting data from employees, job applicants, claimants, local employ-ment offices and other groups; to develop the sampling techniques and survey procedures necessary for imple-menting the research study; to instruct and provide leadership to local office personnel in data collection and recording procedures when local employment offices are involved in the data collection process; and, in some cases, to assist in or assume complete responsibility for the collection of data. Also involved are the processing and organization of the collected data into pertinent formats designed to emphasize the important results of the research study; the application of various statistical reliability measures which characterize the data; the writing of reports describing research findings and their implications on cur-rent estimating techniques; and the development of recommendations for changes, alterations or modifications in current techniques or methods when the survey findings indicate that such changes appear to be in order. A detailed methodology developed by the Job Market Research Center, describing how to conduct such a research study is an integral part of every study, which provides other State Employment Security agencies with a uniform technique to be used in the event other states wish to conduct similar research. Reports and findings embodying such recommendations are presented to appropriate officials in the Man-power Administration for examination and content. Final publications are prepared which represent the con-sensus of Manpower Administration and Job Market Research Center personnel as to content, emphasis, and recommendations. Also involved is the testing of new or revised techniques for measuring labor force components which arise from such studies, in geographic areas other than those in which they were developed, to ascer-tain their applicability in areas with different degrees of unemployment and/or with different economic and industrial backgrounds. A second major responsibility of the Job Market Research Center is to conduct operations research studies. Such studies, while embodying much the same techniques, procedures, and responsibilities set forth previously, are designed to measure the extent of the use and efficiency of various operating procedures and programs in use in the Employment Security system. Statistical and analytical results of such studies are made avail-able to administrators at the national and state levels for evaluation and appropriate administrative action if survey results indicate that such action is necessary or desirable. Some specific examples of the type of research applicable to the objectives of the North Carolina Job Market Research Center are as follows : 1. Studies of workers separated from employment covered by the Employment Security Law to determine the proportions who: (a) File claims for Umemploy- 12 ESC QUARTERLY ment Insurance benefits immediately, (b) Delay filing for one or more weeks, (c) Exhaust their benefits, (d) Are disqualified for benefits due to earnings require-ments or, (e) Are disqualified for benefits due to type of job separa-tion (i.e., quit, discharged, etc.). 2. Household surveys in small areas measuring labor force com-ponents designed to build a body of data necessary for developing relationships be-tween the components of employment and unemployment in rural areas. 3. Development of methods and techniques to estimate unem-ployment in sub-areas of Standard Metropolitan Statisti-cal Areas, neighborhoods within large cities, and parts of counties. 4. Development of techniques for identifying the characteristics of workers residing in disadvan-taged areas, and methods to esti- ' mate underemployment in these areas. 5. Other pilot programs or statis-tical techniques which relate to labor force research, employ-ment or unemployment estimat-ing, and employment service operations. Squeeze a fewdollars intoyour future. lake stock in America. NowBonds paya bonus at maturity Bureau Researches Recruitable Labor In Each Tarheel County By HORACE C. AUSLEY ES Research Ayalyst In an effort to meet inquiries about available labor in North Carolina, the Bureau of Employment Security Research prepares a quarterly release of estimated recruitable labor by county. The publication is a summary of estimates of labor potentials pre-pared for each of North Carolina's 100 counties by the local Employment Security Commission offices through-out the State. The local offices serving the respective county or counties make their best estimate of persons who might reasonably be expected to accept jobs in manufacturing indus-tries. The types of worker generally included in these estimates of recruit-able labor are persons seeking work and the potential job seeker. The local office's estimate of the available labor supply includes: the unemployed, per-sons with less than full-time employ-ment, individuals holding jobs which do not utilize their highest potentials, housewives who would join the work force if more suitable work or better job opportunities were made available, workers who are present are com-muting out of the county to work but would take jobs in the county in which they live if the jobs were avail-able, young people who expect to enter the work force after school is completed, and agricultural workers who would take industrial jobs if they were available. It should be noted that only that part of these groups which the local employment office feels could be selected for referral to the employer through an active recruitment effort by the local office, plus that part deemed likely to respond directly to an employers own recruitment efforts, are reflected in the available labor esti-mates. The labor supply data for each county are characterized according to sex, occupational experience, and industry attachment. The quarterly release, "Estimated Recruitable Labor for Industrial Development in North Carolina, By County," summarizes the data into the following three groups: experienced manufacturing workers; all other experienced workers; and the inexperienced but referable and train-able segment. The release also includes an estimate of high school graduates, by sex, entering the work force annually. The completed release is circulated to interested chambers of commerce, industrial development groups, libraries, local Employment Security Commission offices, other state agencies, and others upon request. The quarterly release may be very helpful in indicating to prospective employers or industrial groups the number of workers who would be expected to be referable to industrial jobs. More detailed and comprehensive reports of labor supply estimates can be prepared from the individual coun-ty data, upon request. These reports, called "Estimate of Recruitable Workers for Industrial Expansion," depict the labor supply of a specifical-ly defined area, usually a 25-mile radius from a central town or city rather than for a single county. Prior to the preparation of these special reports, the population percentages of townships within the defined area must be developed. Basically, this procedure entails determining that percentage of the counties' population that falls within the limits of the radii used in the report, 0-15 miles, 15-20 miles, and 20-25 miles. The process is accomplished by the use of North Carolina census maps of minor civil divisions and plastic overlays contain-ing concentric circles, to scale, of the various radii to be used. The percen-tage of population within the selected radii for each county included are then applied to the respective county esti- AUSLEY ESC QUARTERLY 13 mates of recruitable labor; thus, the estimate of recruitable workers can be derived for the stated radius for the county, countries, or parts thereof. Total population percentages of each county or part are applied to the respective county's total population to determine the population of the defined area. A complete report con-tains such information as definition of recruiting area, total area population, estimates and characteristics of the recruitable labor supply, and a map depicting the geographical area in-cluded. These estimates of potential pro-duction- related workers may be used by industrial and development groups in their efforts to attract industry to the state and to assist in the expansion of existing industry. The estimates are adaptable for industrial use and enable a prospective employer interested in several possible plant locations to examine and compare the labor supply in the several different areas at once. Up to five copies of these estimates are available, upon request, from the Bureau of Employment Security Research. When an employer becomes definitely interested in a particular area but needs more detailed informa-tion about the quantity and composi-tion of the local labor supply, a com-munity questionnaire-type labor sur-vey may be necessary. A community questionnaire-type survey provides the industrial development committee or prospective employer with a more detailed picture of the labor supply in an area. These data can be used to determine the available supply of potential workers which a new firm can draw upon to staff a plant. The sex, age, educational attainment, and residence location, as well as the respondent's current work status and previous work experience, may be determined. The Employment Security Com-mission is glad to assist community groups in planning and developing the labor survey and in presenting the findings. A representative of the Bureau of Employment Security Research can be made available to meet with committees in an advisory capacity to aid in the planning and organization of these surveys. The conducting of the survey itself, includ-ing its cost, must be assumed by responsible local groups, such as: the chamber of commerce, industrial development groups, county commis-sioners, etc. The printing, distribution, and collection of the forms are the responsibility of the sponsoring com-munity groups. When the forms are completed and collected, the Bureau of Employment Security Research will code, tabulate, summarize, and publish the results in a report suitable for presentation to an industry or for use by other groups. Up to 50 copies of the completed report will be furnished to the sponsoring group or groups at no charge. Once the need for a labor survey has been determined, the Bureau of Employment Security Research is notified by the manager of the local Employment Security Commission office serving the area. An initial conference should be planned with the sponsoring group or groups, and it should include other potential partici-pants, such as: newspaper representa-tive^); radio and TV personnel; school superintendent(s); the local Employ-ment Security Commission office manager; and a representative of the Bureau of Employment Security Research attending in an advisory capacity. This meeting also may be attended by the prospective employer or his representative. At this meeting each phase of the survey will be dis-cussed, including areas of responsi-bility; drafting of the survey form; organization, distribution, and collec-tion of the completed forms; adver-tising; and the timing of various development stages. The information collected by using the questionnaire-type survey should not be restricted or limited to certain occupational or industrial segments of the area's labor supply or to a specific industry. For example, if the local group or the industrial prospect who prompted the survey is interested primarily in experienced sewing machine operators, this is not suf-ficient reason to limit the scope of the survey to only include females. It should include all potential workers who might accept jobs in any type of industrial employment. Through proper survey design an extensive industrial profile can be derived. In this way the survey will meet the cur-rent need of a specific prospect and still have value and be available for future use. It should cost but little more in money and effort to survey all types of workers than it does to survey for a specific type of industrial prospect or some specific group. STAR-SPANGLED SAVINGS PLAN WHAT ISA VETERAN? A veteran is someone who has the will to live, to sur-vive. He's self-disciplined and mature. He's had to grow up fast. He's acquired the skills, the technical knowledge, the education, and the ex-perience the Government provides. He knows he has a job to do and how to do it. He's a leader. A veteran knows and ap-preciates the value of life, of work, of success. He's dedicated, moti-vated, and determined. A veteran is the kind of person you want working for you. For information on hiring veterans: See your local office of the State Employ-ment Service. Contact the Veterans Administration for training information. DON'T FORGET. HIRE THE VET! THE NATIONAL COMMITTEE JOBS FOR VETERANS Sign up for U. S. Savings Bonds, New Freedom Shares CONTACT YOUR NEAREST STATE EMPLOYMENT OFFICE 14 ESC QUARTERLY N. C. PARTICIPATES IN NATIONWIDE OCCUPATIONS STUDY By DAVE GARRISON, Asst. Director, BESR In recent years there has been an ever growing need for current and projected data on employment by occupation. Although such informa-tion is essential to effective manpower and educational planning at local, state and national levels, the data which are now available are not considered adequate to meet the needs of most users. It has been estimated that more than $50 billion were spent by federal and private sources for vocational training during 1968 and 1969. Such outlays demand that vocational train-ing programs must be planned on the basis of realistic manpower require-ments. Past efforts to collect occupational employment information in North Carolina have taken the form of periodic "skill surveys" conducted by the Bureau of Employment Security Research. Several such studies were made during the decade of the 1960's. In these surveys Tar Heel employers were called upon to furnish a consider-able amount of detailed data on their current employment and projected requirements for a relatively limited number of key occupations. These employer-type surveys were expensive and time-consuming to conduct, and they could be made only when cooper-ative funding arrangements could be worked out jointly with the North Carolina Department of Community Colleges. Unfortunately there was no provision for a badly needed, permanent, and continuing program of occupational labor market information research. Except for the Commission's periodic "skill surveys" and the infre-quent occupational data from Census, there has been a dearth of authorita-tive, detailed occupational statistics. Now, however, because of a new program which will be known as the "Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Program," North Carolina should soon be well on the way toward the development of a compre-hensive, more effective occupational labor market information program. WHAT IS OES? The Occupational Employment Statistics program is a federal-state cooperative undertaking currently involving 15 state Employment Security agencies as well as the U. S. Labor Department's Manpower Administration and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. North Carolina, along with three other states and the District of Columbia, will join the program in 1972, and, ultimately, it is likely that all states will participate. The OES program involves the collection on a sampling basis of occupational employment statistics. These data will be used in developing more detailed and reliable estimates of occupational employment at the national, state and area levels. The pro-gram provides for coverage of manu-facturing industries in the first year (1971) and nonmanufacturing industries in the second year (1972). The cycle will be repeated every two years. DATE WILL BE USEFUL TO EMPLOYERS North Carolina employers who are asked to participate in OES hopefully will have an interest in the success of the program since the information collected can help assure that public training programs will provide the right training at the right time and, therefore, contribute to the movement of unemployed workers into produc-tive employment. Other benefits to employers are: (1) provide access to current information as to the geo-graphic location of workers according to specific occupational skills; (2) enable employers to compare the occupational composition of their operations with the profile of their respective industries at the national, state or local area level; (3) provide occupational projections of shortage occupations so that employers can take steps to alleviate these shortages through new or accelerated training programs both institutional and on the job. The OES program also is expected to provide occupational information which can be used at the national level for the development and improvement of industry—occupational matrices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has already done considerable work in developing such matrices for 1960, 1967, 1975 and 1980. These matrices are comprehensive tables dividing the total U. S. employment into about 160 specific occupations which are cross classified by 116 different indus-tries. These matrices are actually staffing patterns for the various indus-tries, and can be used in developing projections of future manpower requirements. Our Bureau of Research made use of the BLS national staffing patterns in compiling the data for its publication, "North Carolina Man-power Needs by Industry and Occupa-tion to 1975." An article describing this 1971 study and the findings appears elsewhere in this issue of the Quarterly. STATE MATRICES CAN BE DEVELOPED Approximately 50,000 establish-ments will be included in the national OES sample of manufacturing indus-tries, and between 80 to 100,000 establishments are to be covered in nonmanufacturing. While the national sample will be adequate for the development of state estimates in some industries, it is hoped that with good employer cooperation, North Carolina will be able to supplement the national sample to the extent that state and regional industry-occupa-tional matrices can be prepared. If this does prove to be possible, the state will have the most detailed occupa-tional data ever before available. If successful the OES data will be vastly superior to the too-infrequent Census data which is based on a 20 per cent household sample and which is lacking in occupational detail in such classes as "craftsmen" and "operatives." The OES employer surveys will be conducted by mail to the extent possi-ble and will utilize structured ques-tionnaires, ie, questionnaires on which pre-selected occupations are listed. The questionnaires will also be open-ended to allow employers to add other important new and emerging occupa-tions. Each questionnaire will contain many occupations that are common to different types of industries, but also listed will be those occupational titles which are commonly found in the respective industries being surveyed. Each questionnaire will be accom-panied by occupational definitions which have been standardized as much as possible from industry to industry. Employers will be asked merely to provide the current employment for the listed occupations as well as total wage and salary employment of the establishment. No projections to future target dates will be asked for, as was done under the old skill survey programs. Initially, the OES program in North Carolina will operate with a small staff within the Bureau of Employment Security Research. The OES unit will consist of one Research Analyst II, as supervisor, and four Labor Market Analysts, who will be responsible for collecting, editing and transmitting the occupational data to BLS in Washing-ton. This unit will also develop and publish periodic reports which will relate to the employment outlook in (See OES, Page 36) ESC QUARTERLY 15 In Manufacturing Industries FRINGE BENEFITS By JOSEPH W. RICHARDSON ES Research Analyst Among the many and varied pub-lications released by the Bureau of Employment Security Research are two biennial wage surveys and a biennial study of fringe benefit practices in manufacturing industries. The wage surveys consist of "North Carolina Occupational Wage Rates in Production Jobs" and "North Carolina Weekly Earnings in Nonproduction Occupations." These studies are conducted simultaneously, while "North Carolina Fringe Benefit Prac-tices in Manufacturing Industries" is conducted in alternate years. Data for the surveys are collected on question-naire forms sent directly to sampled employers selected by random, for the most part, from a statewide listing of employers covered by the North Caro-lina Employment Security Law. Some non-covered establishments such as schools, hospitals, and local govern-ments are, however, included in the sample for the survey of weekly earn-ings. Each survey sample consists of the principal industry groups found throughout the State. Additional groups have been added over the years as new and varied products have been introduced and have contributed to the growth of industry in North Carolina. The selection of occupations for review in the production wage survey is based on the frequency of requests and often on the basis of their representativeness in each industry. Some jobs are also selected on the basis of their cross-industry prevalence to enable some comparison of wage rates for the same occupation in different industries. This is particularly noticeable in the survey of weekly earnings whereby all occupations sampled are found throughout all establishments both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing. The defini-tions of the job titles for the survey of production jobs are taken from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles, 1965, and those occupations reviewed in the survey of weekly earnings are a composite of descriptions from the DOT and definitions used by the U. S. Department of Labor in conducting similar area surveys. Wage rates alone are not an adequate measure of labor costs; and since growth in fringe bene-fits substantially increase the cost of doing business, the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research developed a study of fringe benefit practices to be used as a complement to and in conjunction with the study of occupa-tional wage rates for production jobs. Thus, with the economic and indus-trial growth in North Carolina, these data meet an increasing and continuing need of employers contemplating expansion or an initial location within the State. The first study of wage rates for production occupations was released in March, 1957, and the eighth survey in the series was released the latter part of 1971. Until the release of the October, 1964 report (survey period November, 1963), wage data were obtained through North Carolina's Employment Security Commission offices. Most of the offices had the wage data on file for the selected occupations as a result of claims and ordertaking activities. As necessary, the data were verified and brought up-to-date during each survey period by contacts with two or more local employers in the industries studied. The wage data in the summaries were unadjusted and unweighted since, in the first few studies, the number of or frequency of workers by individual rates was not determined. In the survey period November, 1963, the first random sample of firms to be surveyed for the study of pro-duction workers' wage rates was made. The Bureau of Employment Security Research made the selection and data were obtained from the sampled firms by the local Employment Security Commission officers by direct contact. Beginning with the study conducted in December, 1965, questionnaire forms were mailed directly to the sampled firms from the Bureau of Employment Security Research. Forms were return-ed to the local Employment Security 16 ESC QUARTERLY Commission offices and follow-up con-tacts were made from the local offices as necessary. The wage data were then returned to the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research for analysis, editing, and final publication of the results. This procedure has been quite successful since its initiation and has become the general means of collect-ing wage data up to and including the survey of occupational wage rates now underway. Approximately one thousand firms were contacted and asked to participate in the most recent survey. Although many establishments elected not to participate for numerous reasons, over 60 percent of those contacted did respond. The format for "North Carolina Occupational Wage Rates in Produc-tion Jobs" has experienced some modifications since its beginning in 1957, primarily in the area presenta-tion of the data. The difficulties in collecting reliable data and enough data to meet publication criteria develop because of the concentration of the same type of industry in one general area and the sparsity of industry in other locales. Consequent-ly, the scope of areas studied was broadened to include the three main geographical regions of North Caro-lina— Mountain, Piedmont, and Coastal Plains. The North Carolina survey of wage rates in production jobs is presented in three parts, the first part being a state-wide and regional survey of wage rates by occupation. Included are the number of workers surveyed in each occupation, the wage rate range, and the average of the most prevalent wage rate paid. For comparative purposes the most prevalent wage rate average is shown for the Mountain, Piedmont, and Coastal Plains regions along with statewide findings. Part two includes statewide and regional summaries of occupational wage rates by industry, RICHARDSON and part three is a summary of wage rates by occupation for the three geographical regions of the State. The most prevalent wage data appearing in the studies have been adjusted to include the most prevalent rates reported for 90 percent of the workers employed in the surveyed occupations. This avoids some of the distortions in averages which may arise as a result of extremely high or low hourly wage rates. Averages are weighed by multi-plying the most prevalent wage rate for each occupation by the number of workers at each rate and dividing the resulting total wages by the number of workers surveyed. In order not to reveal the rates of an individual employer, all published wage rates represent data gathered from three or more firms and from occupations in which at least three workers are employed. All data are for fully experienced workers including incentive payments resulting from piece work on a production bonus system. Excluded from the study are training rates and premium pay for overtime, holidays, and late shifts. The survey of weekly earnings was begun in 1952. Until 1967 the survey was conducted at the request of and in conjunction with the North Carolina State Personnel Department. The studied fulfilled a two-fold purpose. The studies supplied the State Person-nel Department with wage information for use in reviewing and studying State employees' salaries as compared with those of private industry, and as with all wage data, furnished existing or prospective employers in North Caro-lina a guide in studying the wage struc-ture and patterns in the State. Two studies of weekly earnings, 1967 and 1969, have been conducted solely by the Bureau of Employment Security Research with another in progress. Sampled firms in the latest study totaled over 1,000 with more than a 56 percent response. Occupations selected for review in "North Carolina Weekly Earnings in Nonproduction Occupations" are not restricted to or definable by any parti-cular industry. Rather, the occupa-tions are those relevant to both manu-facturing and nonmanufacturing establishments. Categories of survey jobs include office, technical and administrative, custodial and material movement, and maintenance. The survey of weekly earnings is composed of two parts. Part one consists of statewide summaries of weekly wage scales, average earnings, and average starting salaries in the selected occupations by broad indus-try groups and in selected manufactur-ing industries. Part two lists comparable data for the Mountain, Piedmont, and Coastal Plains regions of North Carolina. All earnings and averages represent the amount earned in a normal full-time workweek with-out regard to the number of hours worked. Data are in terms of straight-time earnings and do not reflect over-time, shift differentials, or bonus payments. Only occupations surveyed and found to exist in three or more employing establishments with three or more employees are included; there-by, individual salaries for one firm are in no way revealed. The first study of fringe benefit practices in manufacturing industries was released in 1959, and the fifth study of the series was released in 1970. The study is useful as a comple-ment to the wage survey of production jobs and is helpful in providing information influencing labor costs of the principal manufacturing industries in the State. Differences of opinion often arise regarding just what constitutes fringe benefits. Some individuals consider legally required payments such as workmen's compensation, social security, and unemployment insurance as fringe benefits. Still, others may regard shift differentials and overtime premium pay as fringe benefits. The Bureau of Employment Security Research's "North Carolina Fringe Benefit Practices in Manufacturing Industries" defines certain benefits provided production employees by North Carolina firms and lists the major fringe benefits which are not required by law and reflects to what extent the sampled firms provide these benefits. The fringe benefits studied are those considered to include the major benefits provided by most manufacturing establishments. Items such as time off with pay for jury duty, military training, or other pay-ments occuring at infrequent intervals and constituting only a minor propor-tion of overall costs, are excluded from the study. Legally required bene-fits as well as those applicable only to the administrative, executive, pro-fessional, sales, and office personnel are not included. Findings resulting from a random sample of manufactur-ing establishments are presented to show the number of sampled firms which did or did not provide the bene-fits to the production worker. Benefits provided by each industry can be compared with the statewide results with further breakouts of the textile and apparel industries whereby the benefits provided by a selected segment of the respective industry may be compared with the entire industry. With continuing growth and industrialization in North Carolina, wage data and fringe benefit practices will continue to assume their roles in providing prospective employers with an indication of some of the costs prevailing and necessary to the opera-tions of a manufacturing establish-ment. ESC QUARTERLY 17 EXPERIENCE RATING Unique Feature of North Carolina Law Finances Unemployment Insurance, Provides Tax Savings to Tarheel Employers By STANHOPE DUNN ES Research Analyst In a consideration of any govern-ment program, two of the most important things the employer, or whoever is involved, wants to know are: "How much will it cost me? And what will I get out of it?" Let's stop for a moment, therefore, and analyze the Unemployment Insurance program in North Carolina with respect to its costs and benefits; and in studying cost, we will concern ourselves especially with the Experience Rating method of financing the program. Since the beginning of the Unemployment Insurance program in 1938 through December 31, 1970, the Employment Security Commission has collected $943.9* million in contri-butions (taxes) from insured em-ployers, and its Unemployment Insurance fund has been credited with interest totaling $168. 5 2 million. The agency has paid out unemployment benefits totaling $698.3 million, and on December 31, 1970, had a reserve fund balance of $414,112,096 avail-able for future benefits. This reserve was equal to 9.56 percent of North Carolina's taxable wages reported to the agency for the 12 months period ended June 30, 1970, the highest reserve-to-taxable-wage ratio in the nation and compared with the average for all states of only 6.39 percent. Georgia, with a ratio of 9.19 percent, was the only other state having a ratio in the nine percent range. Following Georgia, only seven other states had a ratio of eight percent or better. Therefore, North Carolina is the leading state in the nation in this measure of reserve fund adequacy. This is all to the good, but what about the average contribution rate and benefit cost rate over an extended period which made this high reserve ratio possible? What price did employers pay to accumulate such a healthy reserve? During the decade, 1961-70, North Carolina's insured employers paid an average of 1.35 percent of taxable wages in contri-butions as compared with a nation-wide average of 1.82, which means that employers in an average state paid 35 percent higher contribution rates than North Carolina employers. As a matter of fact, employers in only 18 other states and the District of Columbia paid lower contribution rates on taxable wages than did North Carolina employers during the 10-year period. During this period, the State's average cost rate (benefit disburse-ments) was .98 percent of taxable wages as compared with an average of 1.68 percent for the nation. Only five states had a lower cost rate than North Carolina. But what about now? During calendar year 1970, North Carolina's tax rate was 1.0 percent of taxable wages as compared with the national average of 1.3 percent. With respect to the benefit cost rate, the State com-pared even more favorably; specif-ically, 1.07 vs. 2.07. The State's projected 1971 tax rate remains at one percent despite the 1969-70 "mini-recession." Listed below are several factors that we believe contributed to North Carolina's successful financial exper-ience in the Unemployment Insurance program: (1) Although some states have been more conservative than North Carolina in the administration of the program, the State's program could still be considered conservative with respect to maintaining a healthy rela-tionship between income and outgo, which reflects good administration. (2) In recent years, North Carolina has enjoyed a lower rate of insured unemployment than the national average. Other things being equal (e.g., benefit formula, duration, etc.), the lower the level of unemployement, the lower the benefit disbursements and need for replenishing the reserve fund. (3) The operation of the State's Experience Rating program, which is designed to: (a) insure fund solvency; (b) maintain a stable and the lowest contribution rate level as possible, consistent with fund solvency; and (c) vary individual employer rates in direct relationship to their unem-ployment experience as reflected by their reserve balances. Reduced to the simplest terms, the steps in the experience rating program follow: (1) the "fund ratio" is calcu-lated by dividing the Unemployment Insurance fund (reserve fund) available for benefits at computation date (August 1st) by all taxable wages for payroll year ending June 30 preceding the computation date. (2) The Law 18 ESC QUARTERLY provides for nine "Fund Ratio Sched-ules" (ranges of ratios), the lowest range being below 2.5 percent (Schedule A), and the most favorable range starting at 9.5 percent (Schedule I). Between these extremes are seven intermediate ranges applicable to schedules B through H. Each of these schedules provides a different set of contribution rates for assignment to individual employers depending upon the range in which their reserve ratios fall. (3) It follows, therefore, that the final step in the Experience Rating process is to calculate the reserve ratio of every active employer's account which is used in determining his assigned contribution rate within the applicable rate schedule. An em-ployer's credit (positive) reserve ratio is the quotient obtained by dividing the credit balance in his account as of July 31 of each year by his total taxable payroll for the 3-year period ending June 30 preceding the compu-tation date. The debit (negative) ratio of each overdrawn deficit account is similarly calculated and used in determining from the rate schedule the employer's assigned rate for the following calendar year. Rate notices are normally mailed to employers around November 15th of each year, giving them a financial accounting of their individual reserve TABLE I FUND RATIO SCHEDULES E Fund Ratio Range Applicable Schedule — to 2.4% A 2.5% to 3.4% 3.5% to 4.4% BC 4.5% to 5.4% D 5.5% to 6.4% E 6.5% to 7.4% F 7.5% to 8.4% G 8.5% to 9.4% H 9.5% and up I 1 Unemployment Insurance Fund on August 1st divided by taxable wages for Fiscal year ended June 30th. TABLE II SCHEDULE H RATES Reserve Ratio Range i Contribution Rate Positive Accts. : — to 0.5% 0.6% to 0.7% 0.8% to 0.9% 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.0% to 1.1% 2.1 1.2% to 1.3% 1.9 1.4% to 1.5% 1.7 1.6% to 1.7% 1.5 1.8% to 1.9% 1.3 2.0% to 2.1% 1,1 2.2% to 2.3% 0.9 2.4% to 2.5% 0.7 2.6% to 2.7% 0.5 2.8% to 2.9% 0.4 3.0% to 3.1% 3.2% to 3.3% 0.3 0.2 3.4% or more 0.1 Negative Accts.: 0.0% to 0.2% 2.9 0.3% to 0.5% 3.1 0.6% to 0.8% 3.3 0.9% to 1.1% 3.5 1.2% to 1.4% 3.7 1.5% to 1.7% 1.8% to 2.0% 2.1% to 2.3% 3.9 4.1 4.3 2.4% to 2.6% 4.5 2.7% or more 4.7 Employer's reserve fund on August Is»t divided by his taxable wages for three-year period ending June 30th. DUNN accounts. Voluntary contributions may be made within 30 days after an employer is notified of his contri-bution rate for the forthcoming year. Therefore, whenever a particular employer's reserve ratio is very near the next more favorable range, it may be to his advantage to make a volun-tary contribution in order to move his reserve ratio into that range and thus be assigned a lower contribution rate for the new year. Pursuant to the 1971 amendments to the Law, Schedule H now becomes applicable when the fund ratio reaches 8.5 percent of taxable wages instead of the 9.5 percent limit as in prior years. With the Unemployment Insurance fund gaining at a rate only slightly more than taxable wages during the past year, by the August 1, 1971, computation date the fund ratio had reached only 9.4 percent which was still under the 9.5 beginning range of the most favorable Schedule I. This 9.4 ratio compares with a ratio of 9.3 on August 1, 1970. As a result, the applicable rate schedule in 1972 will be "H" for the first time as compared with "G" rates in 1970 and 1971. In 1972 Schedule H contribution rates for positive reserve accounts range from 2.7 percent down to 0.1 percent of taxable wages. Employers with overdrawn accounts will continue to be subject to contribution rates ranging from 2.9 to 4.7 percent, depending upon the size of their debit ratios. Do many employers qualify for reduced rates under the experience rating plan? Yes, most do. Data from the computation for rate year 1971 (latest available) reveal that 36,193 accounts or 89.3 percent of the 40,517 total active accounts were rated." These rated accounts, however, comprised 97 percent of the taxable wages of all covered (active) em-ployers. Of the taxable wages of these rated accounts, 97.6 percent applied to employers with positive reserve (See RATIO, Page 36) ESC QUARTERLY 19 VALIDATION INSURES ACCURACY IN REPORTS The purpose of the reports valida-tion program is to assure accuracy, uniformity, and comparability in the reporting of statistical data derived from the employment service and unemployment insurance operations. To do this, surveys are made to check the conceptual understanding of local office personnel who are involved in reporting, to identify weaknesses in reporting procedures, and to verify the integrity of basic documents. Such sur-veys involve on-the-spot observations to check reported activities against basic documents. Outside verification of nonagricul-tural job placements is also a part of the validation study. Letters are mailed to a sample of approximately 100 individuals who were reported as placed in jobs by local offices of the Employment Security Commission. These applicants are asked if the local office had been helpful in their secur-ing employment. If the applicant does not reply, or replies negatively, a letter is mailed to his employer. Need For Accurate Reporting Reliable statistical data on the activities performed by the local offices are essential for planning, supervising, and evaluating "these offices; for budgeting staff and equip-ment; for reporting to the public; and for econmic analysis. Complete and accurate operating statistics are basic to any review of local office program operations to determine and correct weaknesses and to maintain a balance of program emphasis. If conclusions are to be reliable, then statistics on which they are based must be valid. Validation had its modest beginning shortly after World War II when the Research and Analysis Division of the Pennsylvania Employment Security Commission conducted a survey of its local office reporting practices. It found that, left on their own, local offices had developed well over 600 different kinds of tally sheets and report forms for transcribing data to required statistical reports. All employees in the local office who did any work were in the reporting busi-ness. This idea of each interviewer reporting his own activity is built into the present reporting concept under the Employment Security Automated Reporting System. A uniform methodology for assembling and recording data was developed in order to assist local offices with their report-ing program so that accuracy check By MARYIN VICK Evaluation and Training Specialist and data comparisons could be made. The validation studies were designed primarily to insure accurate and realis-tic reporting and to aid local office staffs with reporting problems. In 1964 the validation program was instituted in North Carolina. In the beginning the North Carolind valida-tion effort was a team approach that developed very rapidly as local offices were quick to adapt to uniform report-ing techniques. Accuracy became a by-word in most offices. Procedural errors were reduced and most errors were caused by reporting data in the wrong reporting period. Managers' complaints concerning reporting subsided as validation of local office activity reports was accepted and recognized as a helpful program. We like to think that validation studies satisfy the need for proper measure-ment of the activities in the various local offices. Verification Of Placements Outside verification of reported nonagricultural placements is an interesting phase of local office reports validation. Many contacted applicants take this opportunity to readily praise the local office staff, while others express derogatory opinions of individual staff members and recom- VICK mend areas of improvement—usually pertaining to unemployment insurance benefits. Employer responses also point-up areas of community acceptance of the Employment Security program in a particular city. Some typical replies from appli-cants or employers are represented by the following quotations taken from respondents' letters. (1) "The referred applicant was hired but before he went to work a thunder storm blew up and he took off and didn't come back." (2) "I appreciate the sincere atti-tude of all those people in the local office as they try to help everybody find a job." (3) "I was referred to two jobs and was hired at both but I didn't have a baby sitter. I still need a job." (4) "They didn't pay me but $3.00 an hour so I quit." (5) "Why can't I get my check." Validation of ESARS Data Validation is not intended to be a "cloak-and-dagger" investigation designed to root out minor deficiencies or to put anyone "on-the-spot"; rather, its purpose is to emphasize the importance of report-ing; to help define any reporting prob-lems; and to assist in correcting those reporting problems. The need for a strong validation program is magnified under the Employment Security Automated Reporting System concept of activity reporting as the prospect for making errors is multi-plied by the great amount of informa-tion gathering that is required in carrying on a viable Employment Security program. Once upon a time an Evaluation and Training Specialist awoke sudden-ly to find himself in a large pasture under a shade tree. There was a rope in his hand. He was confused because he didn't know whether he had found a rope or had lost a cow. The validation of Employment Security Automated Reporting System data as reported by the various local offices is similar in one respect to the above illustration. It is confusing! The results of comparing data found in the Automatic Data Processing master file with entries found on basic source documents fail to adequately convince local office personnel that the com-puter is a dumb machine which does only what it is told by blips on Optical Mark Reader forms. Needless to say, (See VALID, Page 38) 20 ESC QUARTERLY The Bureau of Employment Securi-ty Research is a Joint Service unit of the Employment Security Commis-sion. The Bureau is divided into four units: (1) Labor Force and Wage Studies; (2) Activity Reporting and UI Employment and Wages; (3) Man-power Research and Training and (4) Job Market Research Center. The Bureau of Employment Security Research also has functional supervi-sion over seven area Labor Market Analysts stationed in six local offices. The mission of the Bureau of Em-ployment Security Research is to report the activities of the Employ-ment Security Commission; to collect, analyze, publish, and distribute labor market information; and to complete special studies for the Chairman of the Commission and other ESC adminis-trators for use in program planning, program changes and program improvement. In carrying out the reporting pro-gram a great amount of economic data are collected. The multitude of reports required by the national and regional offices of the Manpower Administra-tion are prepared from data submitted by employers and our local offices. Data for required reports are used to answer requests from employers, col-leges and universities, business organi-zations and others. The importance of using reports data to supply the answers to requests from these organi-zations was recognized soon after the Employment Security Commission became an agency and plans were made to release selected data in publi-cations prepared by the Bureau of Employment Security Research. Many other requests for data from organiza-tions and individuals require special research. This research may require a few minutes to many hours to obtain. In the following paragraphs the publications and reports prepared and Researchers Issue Many Publications Which Supply Labor Force Information By DONALD BRANDE Director Bureau of Employment Security Research released by the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research to fulfill requests for data will be discussed briefly. Other articles in this issue of the ESC Quarterly will cover most of these releases in detail. Each year an Annual Report of Employment Security Local Office Operations is prepared. This report details the major activities performed by local Employment Security offices and presents the information regularly collected for the required federal and state reporting programs in tabular, graph, and narrative form. These data are designed to serve as an aid in evaluating the year's accomplishments of the individual local offices and to provide a record of data for researchers and others concerned with claims and Employment Service activi-ties carried out by local offices. Area Manpower Newsletters are prepared for 16 areas in North Caro-lina. These newsletters are prepared bimonthly for 12 areas and every four months for the other four areas. Employment and unemployment esti-mates of the total work force are provided in these newsletters along with a narrative analysis. A monthly release entitled Employ-ment Security Trends summarizes local office activities in unemployment insurance and employment service pro-grams along with state summaries. The number and location of recruit-able labor is an important data item for any new or expanding industry. To fill this need the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research publishes quarterly a publication entitled Est-imate of Recruitable Labor For Industrial Development in North Caro-lina. The basic data for this report is provided by the local Employment Security Commission offices. A table and map depicting the estimated number of resident workers considered ESC QUARTERLY 21 available for work in new and expand-ing manufacturing industries in each North Carolina county is shown in this publication. In addition to this quarterly release, the Bureau of Employment Security Research prepares as requested estimates of recruitable workers for industrial expansion within a specified com-muting radius for any given North Carolina locality. Included with this estimate is a map depicting the recruit-ment area covered by the estimate; population estimates; and number of high school graduates who have entered the labor force during the past year. Around 1,000 of these estimates are prepared each year by the Bureau of Employment Security Research. An Experience Rating Report summarizing the financial operations of the Unemployment Insurance program administered by the Employ-ment Security Commission is prepared annually. The current experience rating plan is highlighted and data on experience rating, distribution of accounts by contribution rates and the UI Fund condition is included in the report. A Fringe Benefits Study of North Carolina manufacturing firms is conducted every two years by the Bureau of Employment Security Research and the results of these studies are published. A monthly labor turnover publica-tion is released by the Bureau of Employment Security Research and an annual summary is published in December. This report presents turn-over rates for manufacturing and mining industries for the State and the Charlotte and Greensboro-Winston- Salem-High Point SMS Areas. A job openings newsletter for the Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point area showing job vacancy rates for selected manufacturing industries is issued monthly by the Bureau of Employment Security Research. An annual report summarizing the calendar year's employment and wage data of workers insured under the North Carolina Employment Security Law is published by the Bureau of Employment Security Research. These data are presented by major industry group, and by county with industry detail. A quarterly report summarizing wage data of workers insured under the Employment Security Law of North Carolina is also prepared. The data are presented for each county by broad industry groupings. A monthly newsletter presenting statewide employment and unemploy-ment estimates of the total work force is prepared by the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research. An analysis of changes from the one-and-twelve month-ago periods is also included in this publication. Total and insured unemployment rates for the State and the seven Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas are shown. Wage rate studies for production and nonproduction jobs are conducted by the Bureau of Employment Security Research every two years. The wage rate information is intended primarily to provide both existing firms and potential new firms with current wage patterns in the State. One of the most widely used publi-cations prepared by the Bureau of Employment Security Research is the North Carolina Work Force Estimates By County, Area, and State. This study includes quarterly and annual average employment by major indus-try divisions and unemployment for the State, each county, and each multi-county labor area for the preced-ing calendar year. This series was started in 1962. A Weekly Report of Claims-taking Activities is prepared and released by the Bureau of Employ-ment Security Research. This report summarizes claims activity by selected industry with a brief explanation of changes in claimstaking activities. In addition to the publications described in the preceding paragraphs, DONALD A. BRANDE, Employ-ment Security Research Director, joined the Employment Security Commission in 1954 as an inter-viewer in Shelby. He subsequently served as an office manager in Rutherdfordton and moved to Raleigh as an occupational analyst in 1961. Brande, 44, was promoted to assistant director of BESR in 1968, and to director in 1969. He is a graduate of Elon College. the Bureau of Employment Security Research staff answers hundreds of requests annually for unpublished data. Many of these requests come from our 58 local Employment Security Commission offices. Em-ployers, other state agencies, banks, industrial development groups, re-searchers, college and universities and students also request both published and unpublished data from the Bureau of Employment Security Research and in most instances, these requests are met. The number of inquiries for information from the Bureau of Employment Security Research totaled 719 for the first quarter of 1971. It is estimated that over 3,000 inquiries for information will be received and answered by the Bureau of Employment Security Research staff during calendar 1971. The Bureau of Employment Securi-ty Research has and will continue to work with other State agencies in developing manpower reports. During the past decade a number of man-power and training needs report has been completed and published by BESR. These studies were undertaken primarily to meet the need for such information by the North Carolina Department of Community Colleges. The two agencies jointly planned and financed the studies. Working relation-ships are maintained with many of the other State agencies concerned with manpower utilization and training. The Bureau of Employment Security Research cooperates with regional development groups by supplying labor market information needed in compiling economic development plans. Local industrial development groups and Chambers of Commerce are provided data on wages, recruitable labor, fringe benefits, etc., for use in working with prospective employers considering North Carolina sites for the location of their new plants or business. The point of this article is to show that the reporting unit of the Employ-ment Security Commission does more than summarize data for federal reports. The data generated by our required reporting program are com-piled into reports and publications so that they may be used by our agency and others concerned with manpower utilization and training. Special studies such as wage studies, fringe benefits studies, occupational projections studies, work force estimates, labor turnover, and employment trends are developed using the information and data necessary for the reporting pro-gram. These reports and publications are distributed free to any organiza-tion or individual and perhaps in a small way compensate those employ-ers covered by our Employment Security Law who sumit those reports necessary and required for our State and federal reporting system. 22 ESC QUARTERLY EMERGENCY EMPLOYMENT ACT NEW PROGRAM ATTEMPTS TO OPEN UP PUBLIC SERVICE JOBS IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT, HOPING TO PROVIDE WORK EXPERIENCE TO UNEMPLOYED AND UNDEREMPLOYED North Carolina's share of the $1 bil-lion Emergency Employment Act (EEA) has given state and local govern-ments a $6.1 million windfall to finance an estimated 1,500 new public service jobs. The idea behind the act is simple: Make immediate cuts in unemploy-ment and improvements in public serv-ices by temporarily subsidizing useful jobs that revenue-starved state and local governments can fund from their own resources now. Provide the new public service employees with job experience which, in the long run, will help them move into jobs in the pri-vate sector when the economy improves or become regular public employees as state and local revenues increase. But if the idea behind the act is simple, making good on that idea is not. In North Carolina—as in many other states—comprehensive plans to get the most out of the EEA windfall are proving difficult to come by. All levels of government were caught napping when this public serv-ice employment program passed into law. Planning has been suffering ever since. The trouble developed because few people expected the Emergency Employment Act of 1971 to get by a presidential veto despite its popularity in Congress. President Nixon vetoed similar legislation in 1970. So the U.S. Department of Labor made no advance preparations for implementing the program. It got little public notice among state or local agencies that might have expected to benefit from it. But when the EEA cleared Congress on July 1, President Nixon took a new position. Faced with growing national unemployment, he not only removed the veto threat; he called for quick implementation—with hiring to begin by Labor Day. At this point, the North Carolina Manpower Development Corporation began a survey to study how North Carolina could and would respond to passage of the act. interviews with a cross section of state department heads and representatives of city and county government turned up a wide range of suggestions on where and how subsidized jobs could be used profit-ably in North Carolina. In summarizing the potential public service jobs turned up in the survey, an MDC research assistant reported: "Most of the people interviewed thought in terms of adding personnel to already existing job areas . . . filling needs such as the shortage of teacher aides and guidance counselors in the school system. ... A few departments had done some thinking about "hiring workers to handle problems which are just becoming recognized—for example, in law enforcement planning, public health, housing and rural development. ..." The MDC survey also showed, how-ever, that out of more than 30 highly placed administrators, fewer than half a dozen knew the specific terms of the new Emergency Employment Act. Of course, none knew how much money would actually be available in North Carolina, how that money would be distributed, or what guidelines would be applied—none of that had been worked out. In fact, it wasn't until August 9 that "preliminary guidelines" became known. Then, at a conference in Washington for governors' representa-tives the first draft of the guidelines was announced. Other details worked out since July by a Labor Department task force began to come out. Over the next few days North Caro-lina learned how its $6.1 million would be allocated. The State, five This article reprinted from the January, 1972, edition of NORTH CAROLINA, official publication of the N.C. CITIZENS ASSOCIATION. cities and 16 counties with popula-tions in excess of 75,000 and the Cherokee Indian tribe were designated as "program agents" to receive direct grants from the Secretary of Labor. The State would be expected both to create public service jobs of its own and allocate money to the "balance of the state"—counties and cities with populations of less than 75,000. With that the program was rolling. On Monday, August 16, a regional meeting was held by the Labor Depart-ment for city and county program agents. Applications were distributed to apply for the first 20 percent of the EEA money. Program agents had until Friday, August 20, to get those appli-cations in the mail to Labor's regional manpower administrator! It was understood that checks would bj mailed back to program agents as soon as their applications were in. And they were. By August 24, the chief of the Labor Department's EEA task force could report that, nationally, $42 million had been distributed to 700 state and local governments to fund 11,000 jobs. Initial EEA hiring in some states beat the Labor Day target date by more than a week. The MDC survey in North Carolina showed planning running far behind. Before the August 9 meeting in Washington, state agencies could only speculate on what EEA might mean to them. Cities like Raleigh and Winston- Salem—where mayors are served by special manpower assistants—could do some tentative planning. But later evidence indicated that few, if any, key officials in North Carolina cities and counties considered the act's possibilities as they wound up their 1971-7 2 budget making—an ideal time to identify spots where subsidized public service jobs could best be utilized. Three North Carolina counties designated as program agents (David-son, Randolph and Wake) missed the regional meeting and almost missed getting in applications for their funds. Wayne County made the meeting but later decided it would rather the State figured out how to use its money. Officials in Gaston County were quoted in the press as wondering why Gaston would get any money in an emergency employment program since its unemployment rate was below 2 per cent—one of the lowest in North Carolina. Time straightened out some of the factual confusion. But the State's experience showed how difficult it was to plan for a program that began as a surprise and was pushed through its first phase as a race against the Labor Day target date. After the Washington meeting for governors' representatives, the State activated its own task force to plan how to create State public service jobs ESC QUARTERLY 23 North Carolina Total to be To Program Agents To State Program Agents. Spent in Each Area for Local Jobs (Figures in Thousands) Government Charlotte $ 239.6* $ 239.6 $ 0.0 Durham 125.8 88.0 37.8 Greensboro 125.8 69.4 56.5 Raleigh 83.9 25.5 58.4 Winston-Salem 520.6 399.8 120.9 Alamance County 149.3 149.3 0.0 Buncombe County 131.8 131.8 0.0 Catawba County 113.8 113.8 0.0 Cumberland County 282.7 282.7 0.0 Davidson County 222.5 222.5 0.0 Forsyth County 47.9 47.9 0.0 Gaston County 101.8 101.8 0.0 Guilford County 137.8 137.8 0.0 Mecklenburg County 83.9 83.9 0.0 New Hanover County 83.9 83.9 0.0 Onslow County 142.1 142.1 0.0 Randolph County 71.9 71.9 0.0 Robeson County 315.7 252.6 63.1 Rowan County 53.9 53.9 0.0 Wake County 83.9 83.9 0.0 Wayne County 111.7 74.5 37.2 Subtotal $3,230.3 $2,856.5 $ 373.8 Balance of N.C. 2,899.7 — 2,899.7 Total $6,130.0 $2,856.5 $3,273.5 * Emergency Employment Act money is allocated to North Carolina in a two-way split. The sixteen counties and five cities listed above are "program agents" eligible for direct grants to create public service jobs under local government control. In four of these cities and two counties, the state is receiving some funds to create public service jobs in state agencies or departments. The state is also receiving $2,899,700 to allocate public service jobs in "the balance of the state"—the remaining counties and cities that were not given direct grants. and allocate funds to the "balance of the state." But the task force's first meeting (August 17) came right after applications were distributed among program agents to be mailed back by August 20. The task force could only designate priority job areas so the State could qualify for the first 20 per cent of its funds. The task force was thus pushed into a position where it had to act first and plan later, if at all. And if this .situa-tion wasn't a big enough obstacle to genuine planning, the MDC survey pointed to others. There was no existing machinery, and no time to perfect machinery, that could develop data to indicate which public service jobs would be most beneficial—either in terms of improv-ing public service or of relieving unemployment. In fact, the survey found no machinery at all (except the task force, itself) to process the hundreds of applications from the hundreds of cities and counties in the "balance of the state" that weren't eligible for direct grants. Under pressure to follow up the first application with a plan to utilize the remaining 80 per cent of the money due the State, the task force had no time to create complicated machinery even after its first applica-tion was filed. It could only minimize the problem of handling applications by naming Councils of Government or economic development agencies as "coordinating organizations" for each of North Carolina's 17 planning dis-tricts. This approach utilizes local views on useful and necessary jobs. But it could only assume that job proposals would meet aims of the act—for example, that at least half of the subsidized public service jobs would become regular locally supported jobs within two years. As for the idea of preparing public service employees for jobs in the private sector, that simply had to be left to work itself out, one way or another. One state, Utah, demonstrated how to minimize the kinds of problems that have plagued sister states like North Carolina. Utah's State Man-power Council (which is similar to the council created for North Carolina by the last General Assembly, but not yet activated) had developed the machinery and the manpower personnel for planning. It had a public service employment plan already worked out last July. It was in a position to do something more con-structive than simply meet a deadline for funding jobs. The Emergency Employment Act of 1971 still promises useful benefits to North Carolina. It can be a godsend to an estimated 1,500 men and women expected to be hired from among the ranks of the North Carolina's unemployed and underemployed. But the MDC survey indicates that the full potential of the Emergency Employ-ment Act can't be realized until priorities are reversed so that jobs are planned before they are created. Administered By State, Local Government Units Create Jobs Under EEA In North Carolina, the Emergency Employment Act is being administered by the Department of Administration. Purpose of the Act is to give unemployed and underemployed transitional employment in public services during high unemployment, and training and manpower services to help such persons move into employ-ment and training not funded by the Act. Special consideration shall be given Vietnam veterans. Public service jobs shall be in such fields as environmental quality, health care, education, public safety, crime prevention, prison, rehabilitation, transportation, recreation, main-tenance of streets and other public facilities, housing, beautification, and other fields of human and community improvement. Wages paid persons in public service jobs shall be highest of federal, state or local minimum wage, or prevailing rate the employer pays for similar occupa-tions. There's no upper limit on salary, but federal contributions cannot exceed $12,000 a year for any one person. Participants must receive the same fringe benefits, working condi-tions and promotional opportunities as the employer's other employees. The Act authorizes for its main program $750 million for fiscal year 1972, $1 billion for fiscal year 1973. Funds may be spent if the national jobless rate goes above 4.5 percent for three consecutive months. Of the funds appropriated, 85 percent must go for wages and job benefits for hirees. The remainder is for planning, evaluation, training, supportive services, and administra-tion. Grantees put up 10 percent in cash or kind. No program will be funded under the EEA that displaces employed workers; substitutes federal funds for other funds being used; substitutes public service jobs for other federally assisted jobs; permits acquisition, rental, leasing of supplies, equipment, materials, or real property; discrimi-nates because of race, creed, sex, color, national origin, political affilia-tion, or beliefs; involves political activities; uses enrollees to build or operate facilities for religious pur-poses, or fails to increase the number of job opportunities over those now in existence. 24 ESC QUARTERLY At least 80 percent of appropriated funds shall go to state and local governments, with no state receiving less than $1.5 million. The remaining 20 percent shall be available as the Secretary of Labor deems appropriate to carry out the purpose of the Act. Hiring priority under the Act shall be given the unemployed over the underemployed. Program participants must be recruited and selected on a fair and equitable basis from among all significant segments of the unem-ployed and underemployed popula-tion. At least one-third of all participants should be veterans of the Asian theater who served in the armed forces in Indo-China or Korea on or after August 5, 1964, and who received other than a dishonorable discharge. Also, special consideration in hiring should be given to the needs and rela-tive numbers of unemployed and underemp |
OCLC number | 26477199 |