Insight : North Carolina's labor and economic outlook |
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L MI has updated its economic analysis tool, ShOW- IT ( Shift- share Occupational Workforce and Industrial Tools). The program, which allows users to analyze employment data for industries and occupations on county, state and national levels, has more features and enhancements, resulting in more in- depth analysis reports. Article begins on page 10 NC ShOW- IT: A Tool For Analyzing Employment Data T hink North Carolina manufacturing and Textile Mills or Furniture most likely will come to mind. Other manufacturing sectors, however, are gaining ground. Economist Teri Kaasa looks at other up- and-coming manufacturing industries that may just compensate for those in decline. Article begins on page 3 Extreme Makeover: Manufacturing Edition H ousing foreclosures, drought and manufacturing job losses may be contributing factors to a possible downturn in North Carolina’s economy, but to what extent? LMI Director Dr. Peter A. Neenan examines the Tar Heel State’s strengths to determine what the economy will bring over the next six to nine months. Article begins on page 1 Resilient Economy Should Aid North Carolina in 2008 Inside This Issue Resilient Economy Should Aid North Carolina in 2008 1 Extreme Makeover: Manufacturing Edition 3 Employment in Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976– 2004…… 3 Employment in Soap, Cleaning Compound and Toilet Preparation Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976– 2004……………………………... 4 Employment in Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976– 2004…… 4 Employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976– 2004…… 5 Employment in Architectural and Structural Metals in North Carolina 1976– 2004……………………. 5 2006 Average Annual Wage for Select Manufacturing Subsectors……………………….. 6 Estimated Number of Workers by Select Occupational Titles in Select Manufacturing Subsectors………………………………………... 7 Estimated Median Hourly Wages for Select Occupational Titles in Select Manufacturing Subsectors………���……………………………... 7 2006 Annual Average Employment in Select Manufacturing Subsectors By Economic Development Region…………………………….. 8 Announced Job Openings in 2007 for Target Manufacturing Subsectors By Economic Development Region……………………………... 9 NC ShOW- IT: A Tool For Analyzing Employment Data 10 ShOW- IT Version 2.0 Is Now Available…………... 11 How to Get ShOW- IT………………………………. 11 Economic Indicators in North Carolina 12 U. S. Foreclosure Market Statistics for Top 10 States Ranked By Population…………………………… 2 Michael F. Easley, Governor Employment Security Commission of North Carolina Harry E. Payne Jr., Chairman North Carolina’s Labor and Economic Outlook INSIGHT Volume 7, Number 3 Winter 2008 Insight: North Carolina’s Labor and Economic Outlook is published quarterly by the Labor Market Information Division of the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina, P. O. Box 25903, Raleigh, NC 27611- 5903. 919/ 733- 2936 Archived editions may be found at www. ncesc. com Peter A. Neenan, PhD, director, Labor Market Information Martha Bowman, assistant director, Labor Market Information Laurie Green, editor Brett Dyson, layout Please send comments and suggestions to laurie. green@ ncmail. net Harry E. Payne Jr., chairman, Employment Security Commission of North Carolina 1 Winter 2008 INSIGHT On the surface, then, it might appear that North Carolina’s labor market has attained a steady state of equilibrium, albeit at a somewhat higher incidence of unemployment and lower rate of labor force participation than might be comfortable. The climate certainly appears more favorable when compared with conditions that prevailed across the state during the earlier years of the decade. At that time, unemployment rates were approaching 7 percent and large- scale layoffs in manufacturing industries were not uncommon. Several of the state’s industry sectors experienced strong growth over the past year. Chief among these were Educational and Health Services, which continued to expand at a rapid rate ( 4.3%). This sector’s employment increase over the year ( 21,400 on a seasonally adjusted basis) accounts for close to one- third of all the state’s employment growth ( 68,600) during the period. Other industries also showed marked growth including Professional and Business Services, Financial Activities, and Construction. Manufacturing continued to shed employment (- 11,100), although at a much slower pace than earlier in the decade. As North Carolina’s economy displayed resiliency during the past year, several worrisome clouds appeared on the horizon which may signal difficulty for the state’s economy and its labor market conditions during the months to come. Problems related to credit quality and availability have received considerable attention in national and international media. This is particularly true with respect to the volatile real estate market in many areas of the country, as witnessed by the increasing number of loans in default and foreclosure proceedings ( see Table 1). Generally speaking, North Carolina has not been as subject to wild real estate price fluctuations that have characterized certain other states and regions. Nonetheless, it would be unrealistic to expect that our state can remain completely immune to potentially negative effects that might flow from national market dislocations. In addition to any direct or indirect impact on housing or commercial real estate- related industries ( e. g., suppliers, construction trades, wholesale or retail trade and services), weaknesses in the financial sector may affect this increasingly important component of the state’s labor force. Another concern, Mother Nature has also not been particularly kind to the Tar Heel State over the past year. While the state has been mercifully spared the damage that can be caused by major hurricanes and other weather disasters, the longer- term drought is beginning to raise concerns about the steps necessary to ensure that residents have adequate access to water for personal use. Agricultural interests need assurance of access to necessary supplies for crops and livestock. Should the drought continue or even worsen, it would not be unreasonable to expect economic and labor force dislocations to occur as a result. Nationally, energy prices increased considerably over the past year, especially costs for gasoline and other petroleum derivatives. These increased costs, combined with increases in other areas of the economy ( e. g., food, health care), may pose a threat of higher inflation spreading throughout the economy in the months ahead. This, in turn, may be anticipated to decrease consumers’ real purchasing power, resulting in a decreased demand for goods and services. For the past several years, the Labor Market Information Division has produced a set of “ Economic Barometers” that track both coincidental and leading indicators of the state’s economic well- being. Most current indications reflect the potential for a modest decline in the state’s economy over the next six to nine months. At present, while forecasting a downturn, the measures indicate that it should not be severe. Resilient Economy Should Aid North Carolina in 2008 T he year 2007 was a period of transition for North Carolina’s labor market. As the year drew to a close, signs became increasingly evident that the prior years’ growth — in both the state’s labor force and civilian employment — were slowing or declining from previous levels. This changing pattern was consistent with trends observed at national and regional levels as well. When adjusting for seasonal factors, North Carolina’s labor force grew by less than 12,000 individuals ( 0.3%) during the year, a rate of increase that was approximately one- third of that experienced in the nation as a whole over this same period. The state’s unemployment rate, however, remained essentially steady during 2007, increasing a mere one- tenth of a percentage point to 5.0 percent at year’s end. Following several months during the spring and summer in which the state’s unemployment rate was higher than the nation’s, the year’s later months saw a close correspondence between the two — a relationship which has generally held true for the past three years or so. By Dr. Peter A. Neenan Winter 2008 INSIGHT 2 North Carolina’s labor market has been hard hit over the past couple of years because of competitive labor costs within the manufacturing industry. Towns and communities have seen their workforce challenged as textiles and furniture relocate to less costly production locations. Through it all, the state’s economy has remained generally resilient due to its favorable location, and diverse industrial and occupational mix. State leaders have displayed an active commitment to forward- thinking economic and workforce development strategies. Hopefully, this combination of strengths should enable the state to weather any stormy seas in the near term and to continue its successful transitioning to a 21st century economy. Rank State Name Total Foreclosure Filings % Households ( foreclosure rate) 1 California 481,392 1.921 2 Texas 149,703 0.936 3 New York 57,350 0.493 4 Florida 279,325 2.002 5 Illinois 90,782 1.250 6 Pennsylvania 34,089 0.302 7 Ohio 153,196 1.797 8 Michigan 136,205 1.947 9 Georgia 99,578 1.566 10 North Carolina 37,426 0.739 Table 1 U. S. Foreclosure Market Statistics for Top 10 States Ranked By Population Source: http:// www. realtytrac. com/ ContentManagement/ pressrelease. aspx? ChannellD= 9& ItemlD= 3988& accnt= 64847 Dr. Peter A. Neenan is director of the Labor Market Information Division. 3 Winter 2008 INSIGHT Extreme Makeover: Manufacturing Edition W hich manufacturing subsector provided the most jobs in North Carolina during the first three quarters of 2007? If you are thinking Textile Mills or Furniture, you’re wrong. The historical bastions of employment in North Carolina’s manufacturing industries have quietly and nearly imperceptibly been overtaken by slow, but steady growth in Food Manufacturing. By Teri Kaasa If you are surprised, then you’re probably not alone. Many people, even within the economic community, would also be surprised to learn that employment in Food Manufacturing surpassed employment in Textile Mills in May 2006 and Furniture in April 2007.1 While the ability of employment in Food Manufacturing to overtake that of the two largest manufacturing industries of the late ‘ 90s and early 2000 can be attributed more to declines in employment in these industries than to significant growth in the former, growth in Food Manufacturing has been slow, but steady over the last few years. Moreover, it is indicative of the changing face of manufacturing in North Carolina. In addition to Food, several other subsectors are vying to take a prominent place among manufacturing employers in the state. Most notably, employment in Chemical, Transportation Equipment, and Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing are all expected to grow at an annualized growth rate of at least 1 percent between 2004 and 2014,2 with current employment already averaging between 35,000 and 45,000 annually. The Chemical Manufacturing subsector currently comprises approximately 45,000 jobs, with 45 percent ( 20,000) falling in the Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing industry group. Growth in this industry, therefore, is anticipated largely on the basis of prolonged sound performances in Pharmaceutical and Medicine as well as Soap, Cleaning Compound and Toilet Preparation Manufacturing ( See Graphs 1 and 2). 3 1 NCESC, Current Employment Statistics 2 NCESC, Occupational Trends/ Projections 3 Ibid Graph 1 Employment in Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976 - 2004 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: NCESC, Projections Unit Winter 2008 INSIGHT 4 Transportation Equipment Manufacturing currently accounts for approximately 35,000 jobs, with an anticipated growth rate of 1 percent per year from 2004 to 2014.4 The largest industry group within this subsector, accounting for 52 percent of the jobs, is Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing. This industry group has shown steady and consistent growth since 1976, with an increase exceeding 6 percent between 2001 and 2004 ( See Graph 3). 4 Ibid. Graph 2 Employment in Soap, Cleaning Compound And Toilet Preparation Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976 - 2004 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: NCESC, Projections Unit Graph 3 Employment in Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing In North Carolina 1976 - 2004 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: NCESC, Projections Unit Although accounting for a significantly smaller number of jobs ( 3,000), the Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing industry group has experienced significant growth since 1976 ( See Graph 4), and is poised to continue its growth. North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley in 2007 announced the creation of more than 350 jobs related to the expansion and location of interests of Honda Aero Inc. in Alamance and Guilford counties over the next five years. Additionally, the Governor’s Office announced the expansion of Smiths Aerospace in Buncombe County, which is slated to create 200 jobs within this industry group. 5 Winter 2008 INSIGHT Finally, Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing currently includes approximately 39,000 jobs. This subsector is anticipated to grow at an annual rate of 1.12 percent between 2004 and 2014, based largely on a resurgence of jobs in the Architectural and Structural Metals industry group, which accounts for approximately 30 percent ( 12,000) of the jobs in the subsector ( See Graph 5). The Governor’s Office announced the creation of more than 100 jobs in this subsector in 2007 in Sampson and Rutherford counties. Graph 4 Employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing In North Carolina 1976 - 2004 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: NCESC, Projections Unit Graph 5 Employment in Architectural and Structural Metals In North Carolina 1976 - 2004 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: NCESC, Projections Unit Winter 2008 INSIGHT 6 Graph 6 2006 Average Annual Wage for Select Manufacturing Subsectors $ 31,941 $ 30,846 $ 28,882 $ 41,343 $ 48,168 $ 67,542 $ 0 $ 10,000 $ 20,000 $ 30,000 $ 40,000 $ 50,000 $ 60,000 $ 70,000 $ 80,000 Chemical Tra nsportation Eq uipme nt Fabricated Metal Produ ct Textile Mills Furniture and Related Product Food In addition to the already announced job creation, economic indicators point to foreign exports, the result of strong worldwide growth and a weaker dollar, as a welcome salve to many manufacturing industries. 5 “ Leading gainers in foreign sales include autos and auto parts, civilian aircraft, chemicals and Rx ( prescription) drugs . . .” 6 which are precisely those industries that have a significant presence in North Carolina and are predicted to grow. What are the implications of this growth for the manufacturing employee? The good news is that, with the exception of Food Manufacturing, wages in the growth subsectors outpace those in the more traditional manufacturing sectors in North Carolina. Annual average wages in 2006 in Chemical, Transportation Equipment and Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing all were higher than annual average wages in Textile Mills and Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing ( See Graph 6). Equally important is the fact that there are many occupational titles of a nonspecialized nature that appear with a relatively high frequency across all of the aforementioned industrial subsectors. This means that individuals working in one industry should be able to transfer their knowledge and skills to another industry with little difficulty. As can be seen in Table 1, there are five occupations that appear with some frequency across both the growing and declining Manufacturing subsectors. Interestingly, with the exception of First- Line Supervisors/ Managers, all of the occupations listed require only short (< 1 month) to mid- term ( 1– 12 months) on- the- job training. Thus, the skills required, if learned in a particular subsector, should transfer readily to an alternative manufacturing subsector with a minimum of on- the- job training. Furthermore, three of the five occupations appear on the list of fastest growing production occupations in the state, with Team Assembler topping the list with predicted growth at 15.2 percent from 2004 to 2014.7 5 The Kiplinger Letter, Vol. 84, No. 6 and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Daily Report, Monday November 19, 2007. 6 Ibid at The Kiplinger Letter, P. 1. 7 NCESC, Labor Market Information Division, Projection Unit, Occupational Projections. Source: NCESC, QCEW 7 Winter 2008 INSIGHT Growing Subsectors Declining Subsectors Food Fabricated Metal Product Chemical Transportation Equipment Textiles Mills Furniture and Related Product Occupational Title Training Level* Helpers – Production Workers 11 1,658 468 137 141 1,426 2,647 First- Line Supervisors/ Managers of Production and Operating 8 940 483 828 663 1,151 2,164 Maintenance and Repair Workers – General 10 930 139 982 667 753 551 Team Assemblers 10 494 2,150 69 3,117 111 3,175 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers and Weighers 10 407 71 1,204 704 1,781 1,438 Totals 4,429 3,311 3,220 5,292 5,222 9,975 Grand Totals 16,252 15,197 Table 1 Estimated Number of Workers by Select Occupational Titles in Select Manufacturing Subsectors * Level Description of training required 8 Work exp in a related occupation 10 11 Short- term OJT ( less than 1 month) Mid- term OJT ( 1- 12 months) Of even more interest are the median hourly wages for these occupations. Table 2 shows that, with the exception of the Food Manufacturing subsector, median hourly wages for the occupations of interest in the growing manufacturing subsectors exceed those of the declining, traditional manufacturing subsectors ( Textiles and Furniture). This indicates that it is not only the specialized occupations within the subsectors that are accounting for the higher annual average wages previously mentioned. Declining Subsectors Food Fabricated Metal Product Chemical Transportation Equipment Textiles Mills Furniture and Related Product Occupational Title Helpers – Production Workers $ 10.48 $ 10.70 $ 10.98 $ 10.80 $ 10.49 $ 9.91 First- Line Supervisors/ Managers of Production and Operating $ 19.60 $ 22.01 $ 28.21 $ 23.18 $ 20.16 $ 18.80 Maintenance and Repair Workers – General $ 15.34 $ 17.51 $ 19.92 $ 19.49 $ 14.69 $ 14.08 Team Assemblers $ 10.65 $ 10.91 $ 14.38 $ 15.23 $ 8.99 $ 11.37 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers and Weighers $ 10.84 $ 13.71 $ 15.46 $ 18.14 $ 11.07 $ 11.57 Growing Subsectors Table 2 Estimated Median Hourly Wages for Select Occupational Titles in Select Manufacturing Subsectors Winter 2008 INSIGHT 8 9 Winter 2008 INSIGHT One additional issue with respect to transitional jobs ( from one industry group to another) is that of location. As can be seen on Map 1, manufacturing jobs in Textile Mills and Furniture and Related Products have a slight concentration in the Piedmont Triad Economic Development Region of the state; however, there is representation of all the sectors across the state. Likewise, the growing subsectors have a presence statewide. Additionally, throughout 2007 there were more than 3,100 announced job creations and industry expansions in those subsectors. 8 This is a conservative estimate since some of the announcements either did not contain the number of jobs to be created or the NAICS classification could not be determined. Even so, the classifiable announced jobs span all seven of the state’s Economic Development Regions ( See Map 2). This means manufacturing workers across the state can anticipate new job opportunities, at higher wages, with relatively little additional training required, within close proximity to their current locations. Manufacturing in North Carolina can truly be described as a “ tortoise and hare” situation. Of the Manufacturing subsectors discussed, only Aerospace Product and Parts has experienced any period of dramatic, sudden growth. The rest have not, nor do they anticipate growth in the future; however, their slow and steady growth has situated them solidly in North Carolina’s economy. So, while the changes in manufacturing may not have been “ extreme” in terms of having occurred suddenly, they have certainly had, and continue to have, a significant effect on the “ face” of the industry in the state. It seems quite likely that very soon conversations about manufacturing in North Carolina will shift focus from linens and loungers to meats, motors, medicines and metals. Moreover, manufacturing employees who have weathered the storms of the industry and who have the adaptability to change with the manufacturing landscape, may turn out to be the real winners. 8 NC Department of Commerce, Community Involvement Report. Teri Kaasa is an economist with LMI’s Labor Market and Occupational Research Unit. She can be reached at teri. kaasa@ ncmail. net. Winter 2008 INSIGHT 10 NC ShOW- IT: A Tool For Analyzing Employment Data S hOW- IT, an acronym for Shift- share Occupational Workforce and Industrial Tools, is an extensive database and reporting application for economic analysis developed by the ESC’s Labor Market Information ( LMI) Division. This program allows the user to investigate and analyze employment data for industries over a 17- year period and for occupations over a seven- year period. In addition to neatly organizing data for both industrial and occupational employment, ShOW- IT also evaluates and reports complex calculations, including location quotients ( indicators of employment concentrations), shift- share components ( indicators of economic independence from outside factors) and newly developed indicators of relative industrial and occupational local performance. All of this information can be obtained for industries and occupations, individually or in customized groups, spanning flexible time periods and geographies. By Kevin Hoffman Originally designed with economic developers in mind, ShOW- IT has proven to be useful for many professionals who benefit from readily available economic data ranging from the most basic employment and wage information for occupations and industries to very powerful information showing in- depth analyses of these same data. This target audience might include: • Economic Development Regions ( EDRs) and Workforce Development Boards ( WDBs) planning area economic strategies • Employment office staff assisting individuals and businesses • Education professionals designing curricula • Economists performing research and/ or analysis concerning economic trends • LMI professionals All reports display in preview mode and may then be printed. In addition, all reports may be easily exported to spreadsheet programs like Microsoft Excel or to external files for import into various database programs. Extensive national, state, county, WDB and EDR data for industrial employment for the years 1990 through 2006 have been incorporated into the database as have national, state, WDB and EDR occupational employment data for the years 2000 through 2006. Information is categorized using Bureau of Labor Statistics standard codes ( NAICS for industries and SOC for occupations) along with detailed descriptions. Counties are also referenced by their standard codes and common names. Official definitions for specific industries and occupations are also included and may be reported. One of the major strengths of ShOW- IT is the ability for the user to create customized groups of occupations, clusters of industries and areas of combined counties for analysis purposes. Major occupational groups and industry clusters come predefined as do WDBs and EDRs comprising their respective counties. A truly unique quality of the ShOW- IT program is its ability to perform industry analyses across state borders by including bordering states’ counties in customized areas. This involves a progressive approach to both shift-share and location quotient calculations, allowing for examination of activities in metropolitan areas that cross over state lines. Location quotients are calculated showing relative employment concentrations within a given geography, which can be defined by the user, of specific occupations or industries or customizable groupings of the same. These concentrations are compared with the same industries or occupations — both statewide and nationally — over the same timeframe. The location quotients can be very useful for identifying relative economic strengths or possible economic vulnerabilities of a region. Shift- share analysis can be a solid indicator of an area’s economic independence, showing how much of job growth or decline is due to the specific area’s performance, rather than due to the statewide or national economy or the performance of the industry or occupation as a whole. As an extension of this analysis, the LMI Division has developed new, straightforward measures rating local performance over five grades from strongly positive to strongly negative. While these analyses may sound a little daunting, ShOW-IT does the analysis for you automatically and generates easy- to- read text explanations for the indicators and explains some of their resulting economic implications. 11 Winter 2008 INSIGHT ShOW- IT Version 2.0 Is Now Available • All data files have been updated to include 2006 information and 2014 projections. • South Carolina and Virginia data have been added to allow cross- state areas. • More personalization options are included to customize output. • Interfaces have been enhanced to add features and perform more intuitively. How to Get ShOW- IT For a new complete version: If you are a current user and would simply like to replace your current version with the latest release, or if you are new to ShOW- IT, contact LMI ( see below). To update from an existing version: If you are currently using ShOW- IT and have customized the application by defining your own preferences ( logos, name, address, etc.) or have defined a significant number of customized industry clusters, geographic areas or occupational groups that you do not wish to recreate, LMI can update it for you. Just contact the division to receive instructions for sending your current files. To Contact LMI: Send an e- mail ( with ‘ ShOW- IT’ in the subject line) to esc. lmi. inquiries@ ncmail. net or regular mail to ShOW- IT, Employment Security Commission of NC, Labor Market Information Division, P. O. Box 25903, Raleigh, NC 27611. Please indicate: • Are you a new or current user of ShOW- IT? • Should LMI send a complete new version or update your current copy? • Your name, organization name, e- mail, mailing address and telephone number. Kevin Hoffman is a social research specialist with LMI’s Labor Market and Occupational Research Unit. He can be reached at kevin. hoffman@ ncmail. net. Winter 2008 INSIGHT 12 3,950 4,000 4,050 4,100 4,150 J F M A M J J A S O N D Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates* Economic Indicators in North Carolina Economic Indicators are used to measure economic activity and can be referred to as Lagging, Coincident and Leading Indicators. Lagging Indicators measure where the economy was; Coincident Indicators help determine concurrent changes; and, Leading Indicators predict future economic activity. Total Nonagricultural Employment, in Thousands* Seasonally Adjusted Lagging Indicators Coincident Indicators * Source: ESC, Labor Market Information Division 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2005- 2006 2006- 2007 13 Winter 2008 INSIGHT $ 250 $ 300 $ 350 $ 400 $ 450 $ 500 $ 550 $ 600 $ 650 D J F M A M J J A S O N $ 500 $ 750 $ 1,000 $ 1,250 $ 1,500 $ 1,750 $ 2,000 $ 2,250 $ 2,500 $ 2,750 $ 3,000 $ 3,250 D J F M A M J J A S O N 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D New Business Incorporations Source: NC Secretary of State, Corporations Division Coincident Indicators Sales and Use Tax Revenues, in Millions Statewide In Selected Cities Oct. 2007 Sept. 2007 Oct. 2006 Percent Change From Last Year Asheville 6.6 10.5 7.5 - 12.0 Charlotte 34.5 43 33.7 + 2.4 Durham 10 13.2 10 0.0 Fayetteville 6 9 6.4 - 6.3 Greensboro 13.5 17.3 13.4 + 0.7 Greenville 3.2 4.8 3.3 - 3.0 Hickory 3.9 5.1 3.7 + 5.4 Raleigh 20.7 25.9 20.1 + 3.0 Wilmington 6.7 9.9 7.6 - 11.8 N. C. Department of Revenue, Tax Research Division Winston- Salem 9.4 13.3 9.4 0.0 Source: NC Department of Revenue Total Tax Revenues, in Millions 2005- 2006 2006- 2007 Winter 2008 INSIGHT 14 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D 38 39 40 41 42 43 J F M A M J J A S O N D 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D Initial Claims Average Weekly Hours Worked in Manufacturing In Selected Metropolitan Statistical Areas Statewide, in Thousands Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina Statewide Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina Dec. 2007 Nov. 2007 Dec. 2006 Percent Change From Last Year Asheville 540 410 787 - 31.4 Charlotte 1,175 1,048 1,167 + 0.7 Durham 287 147 181 + 58.6 Fayetteville 272 267 419 - 35.1 Goldsboro 274 220 461 - 40.6 Greensboro 1,018 1,258 1,677 - 39.3 Greenville 514 572 522 - 1.5 Hickory/ Newton 1,128 1,188 1,757 - 35.8 Jacksonville 266 199 185 + 43.8 Raleigh 709 683 586 + 21.0 Wilmington 586 659 643 - 8.9 Winston- Salem 881 730 807 + 9.2 Leading Indicators New Vehicle Registrations Source: NC Automobile Dealers Association Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Source: US Census Bureau Dec. 2007 Nov. 2007 Dec. 2006 Percent Change From Last Year Charlotte/ Gastonia 44.9 44.7 46.4 - 3.2 Durham 45.2 43.5 43.7 + 3.4 Greensboro/ High Pt. 37.4 38.7 40.6 - 7.9 Raleigh/ Cary 39.4 39.3 40.6 - 3.0 Winston- Salem 42.7 44.1 41.4 + 3.1 2005- 2006 2006- 2007 LABOR MARKET INFORMATION DIVISION EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION OF NORTH CAROLINA POST OFFICE BOX 25903 RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA 27611- 5903 OFFICIAL BUSINESS PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE $ 300.00 50 copies of this publication were produced at a cost of $ 16.00 or $ 0.32 per copy. NCESC 6059 Fall 2007 EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION OF NORTH CAROLINA www. ncesc. com
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Title | Insight : North Carolina's labor and economic outlook |
Date | 2008; * |
Description | Volume 7, Number 3 (Winter 2008) |
Digital Characteristics-A | 1 MB; 18 p. |
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application/pdf |
Pres Local File Path-M | \Preservation_content\StatePubs\pubs_borndigital\images_master\ |
Full Text | L MI has updated its economic analysis tool, ShOW- IT ( Shift- share Occupational Workforce and Industrial Tools). The program, which allows users to analyze employment data for industries and occupations on county, state and national levels, has more features and enhancements, resulting in more in- depth analysis reports. Article begins on page 10 NC ShOW- IT: A Tool For Analyzing Employment Data T hink North Carolina manufacturing and Textile Mills or Furniture most likely will come to mind. Other manufacturing sectors, however, are gaining ground. Economist Teri Kaasa looks at other up- and-coming manufacturing industries that may just compensate for those in decline. Article begins on page 3 Extreme Makeover: Manufacturing Edition H ousing foreclosures, drought and manufacturing job losses may be contributing factors to a possible downturn in North Carolina’s economy, but to what extent? LMI Director Dr. Peter A. Neenan examines the Tar Heel State’s strengths to determine what the economy will bring over the next six to nine months. Article begins on page 1 Resilient Economy Should Aid North Carolina in 2008 Inside This Issue Resilient Economy Should Aid North Carolina in 2008 1 Extreme Makeover: Manufacturing Edition 3 Employment in Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976– 2004…… 3 Employment in Soap, Cleaning Compound and Toilet Preparation Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976– 2004……………………………... 4 Employment in Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976– 2004…… 4 Employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976– 2004…… 5 Employment in Architectural and Structural Metals in North Carolina 1976– 2004……………………. 5 2006 Average Annual Wage for Select Manufacturing Subsectors……………………….. 6 Estimated Number of Workers by Select Occupational Titles in Select Manufacturing Subsectors………………………………………... 7 Estimated Median Hourly Wages for Select Occupational Titles in Select Manufacturing Subsectors………���……………………………... 7 2006 Annual Average Employment in Select Manufacturing Subsectors By Economic Development Region…………………………….. 8 Announced Job Openings in 2007 for Target Manufacturing Subsectors By Economic Development Region……………………………... 9 NC ShOW- IT: A Tool For Analyzing Employment Data 10 ShOW- IT Version 2.0 Is Now Available…………... 11 How to Get ShOW- IT………………………………. 11 Economic Indicators in North Carolina 12 U. S. Foreclosure Market Statistics for Top 10 States Ranked By Population…………………………… 2 Michael F. Easley, Governor Employment Security Commission of North Carolina Harry E. Payne Jr., Chairman North Carolina’s Labor and Economic Outlook INSIGHT Volume 7, Number 3 Winter 2008 Insight: North Carolina’s Labor and Economic Outlook is published quarterly by the Labor Market Information Division of the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina, P. O. Box 25903, Raleigh, NC 27611- 5903. 919/ 733- 2936 Archived editions may be found at www. ncesc. com Peter A. Neenan, PhD, director, Labor Market Information Martha Bowman, assistant director, Labor Market Information Laurie Green, editor Brett Dyson, layout Please send comments and suggestions to laurie. green@ ncmail. net Harry E. Payne Jr., chairman, Employment Security Commission of North Carolina 1 Winter 2008 INSIGHT On the surface, then, it might appear that North Carolina’s labor market has attained a steady state of equilibrium, albeit at a somewhat higher incidence of unemployment and lower rate of labor force participation than might be comfortable. The climate certainly appears more favorable when compared with conditions that prevailed across the state during the earlier years of the decade. At that time, unemployment rates were approaching 7 percent and large- scale layoffs in manufacturing industries were not uncommon. Several of the state’s industry sectors experienced strong growth over the past year. Chief among these were Educational and Health Services, which continued to expand at a rapid rate ( 4.3%). This sector’s employment increase over the year ( 21,400 on a seasonally adjusted basis) accounts for close to one- third of all the state’s employment growth ( 68,600) during the period. Other industries also showed marked growth including Professional and Business Services, Financial Activities, and Construction. Manufacturing continued to shed employment (- 11,100), although at a much slower pace than earlier in the decade. As North Carolina’s economy displayed resiliency during the past year, several worrisome clouds appeared on the horizon which may signal difficulty for the state’s economy and its labor market conditions during the months to come. Problems related to credit quality and availability have received considerable attention in national and international media. This is particularly true with respect to the volatile real estate market in many areas of the country, as witnessed by the increasing number of loans in default and foreclosure proceedings ( see Table 1). Generally speaking, North Carolina has not been as subject to wild real estate price fluctuations that have characterized certain other states and regions. Nonetheless, it would be unrealistic to expect that our state can remain completely immune to potentially negative effects that might flow from national market dislocations. In addition to any direct or indirect impact on housing or commercial real estate- related industries ( e. g., suppliers, construction trades, wholesale or retail trade and services), weaknesses in the financial sector may affect this increasingly important component of the state’s labor force. Another concern, Mother Nature has also not been particularly kind to the Tar Heel State over the past year. While the state has been mercifully spared the damage that can be caused by major hurricanes and other weather disasters, the longer- term drought is beginning to raise concerns about the steps necessary to ensure that residents have adequate access to water for personal use. Agricultural interests need assurance of access to necessary supplies for crops and livestock. Should the drought continue or even worsen, it would not be unreasonable to expect economic and labor force dislocations to occur as a result. Nationally, energy prices increased considerably over the past year, especially costs for gasoline and other petroleum derivatives. These increased costs, combined with increases in other areas of the economy ( e. g., food, health care), may pose a threat of higher inflation spreading throughout the economy in the months ahead. This, in turn, may be anticipated to decrease consumers’ real purchasing power, resulting in a decreased demand for goods and services. For the past several years, the Labor Market Information Division has produced a set of “ Economic Barometers” that track both coincidental and leading indicators of the state’s economic well- being. Most current indications reflect the potential for a modest decline in the state’s economy over the next six to nine months. At present, while forecasting a downturn, the measures indicate that it should not be severe. Resilient Economy Should Aid North Carolina in 2008 T he year 2007 was a period of transition for North Carolina’s labor market. As the year drew to a close, signs became increasingly evident that the prior years’ growth — in both the state’s labor force and civilian employment — were slowing or declining from previous levels. This changing pattern was consistent with trends observed at national and regional levels as well. When adjusting for seasonal factors, North Carolina’s labor force grew by less than 12,000 individuals ( 0.3%) during the year, a rate of increase that was approximately one- third of that experienced in the nation as a whole over this same period. The state’s unemployment rate, however, remained essentially steady during 2007, increasing a mere one- tenth of a percentage point to 5.0 percent at year’s end. Following several months during the spring and summer in which the state’s unemployment rate was higher than the nation’s, the year’s later months saw a close correspondence between the two — a relationship which has generally held true for the past three years or so. By Dr. Peter A. Neenan Winter 2008 INSIGHT 2 North Carolina’s labor market has been hard hit over the past couple of years because of competitive labor costs within the manufacturing industry. Towns and communities have seen their workforce challenged as textiles and furniture relocate to less costly production locations. Through it all, the state’s economy has remained generally resilient due to its favorable location, and diverse industrial and occupational mix. State leaders have displayed an active commitment to forward- thinking economic and workforce development strategies. Hopefully, this combination of strengths should enable the state to weather any stormy seas in the near term and to continue its successful transitioning to a 21st century economy. Rank State Name Total Foreclosure Filings % Households ( foreclosure rate) 1 California 481,392 1.921 2 Texas 149,703 0.936 3 New York 57,350 0.493 4 Florida 279,325 2.002 5 Illinois 90,782 1.250 6 Pennsylvania 34,089 0.302 7 Ohio 153,196 1.797 8 Michigan 136,205 1.947 9 Georgia 99,578 1.566 10 North Carolina 37,426 0.739 Table 1 U. S. Foreclosure Market Statistics for Top 10 States Ranked By Population Source: http:// www. realtytrac. com/ ContentManagement/ pressrelease. aspx? ChannellD= 9& ItemlD= 3988& accnt= 64847 Dr. Peter A. Neenan is director of the Labor Market Information Division. 3 Winter 2008 INSIGHT Extreme Makeover: Manufacturing Edition W hich manufacturing subsector provided the most jobs in North Carolina during the first three quarters of 2007? If you are thinking Textile Mills or Furniture, you’re wrong. The historical bastions of employment in North Carolina’s manufacturing industries have quietly and nearly imperceptibly been overtaken by slow, but steady growth in Food Manufacturing. By Teri Kaasa If you are surprised, then you’re probably not alone. Many people, even within the economic community, would also be surprised to learn that employment in Food Manufacturing surpassed employment in Textile Mills in May 2006 and Furniture in April 2007.1 While the ability of employment in Food Manufacturing to overtake that of the two largest manufacturing industries of the late ‘ 90s and early 2000 can be attributed more to declines in employment in these industries than to significant growth in the former, growth in Food Manufacturing has been slow, but steady over the last few years. Moreover, it is indicative of the changing face of manufacturing in North Carolina. In addition to Food, several other subsectors are vying to take a prominent place among manufacturing employers in the state. Most notably, employment in Chemical, Transportation Equipment, and Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing are all expected to grow at an annualized growth rate of at least 1 percent between 2004 and 2014,2 with current employment already averaging between 35,000 and 45,000 annually. The Chemical Manufacturing subsector currently comprises approximately 45,000 jobs, with 45 percent ( 20,000) falling in the Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing industry group. Growth in this industry, therefore, is anticipated largely on the basis of prolonged sound performances in Pharmaceutical and Medicine as well as Soap, Cleaning Compound and Toilet Preparation Manufacturing ( See Graphs 1 and 2). 3 1 NCESC, Current Employment Statistics 2 NCESC, Occupational Trends/ Projections 3 Ibid Graph 1 Employment in Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976 - 2004 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: NCESC, Projections Unit Winter 2008 INSIGHT 4 Transportation Equipment Manufacturing currently accounts for approximately 35,000 jobs, with an anticipated growth rate of 1 percent per year from 2004 to 2014.4 The largest industry group within this subsector, accounting for 52 percent of the jobs, is Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing. This industry group has shown steady and consistent growth since 1976, with an increase exceeding 6 percent between 2001 and 2004 ( See Graph 3). 4 Ibid. Graph 2 Employment in Soap, Cleaning Compound And Toilet Preparation Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976 - 2004 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: NCESC, Projections Unit Graph 3 Employment in Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing In North Carolina 1976 - 2004 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: NCESC, Projections Unit Although accounting for a significantly smaller number of jobs ( 3,000), the Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing industry group has experienced significant growth since 1976 ( See Graph 4), and is poised to continue its growth. North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley in 2007 announced the creation of more than 350 jobs related to the expansion and location of interests of Honda Aero Inc. in Alamance and Guilford counties over the next five years. Additionally, the Governor’s Office announced the expansion of Smiths Aerospace in Buncombe County, which is slated to create 200 jobs within this industry group. 5 Winter 2008 INSIGHT Finally, Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing currently includes approximately 39,000 jobs. This subsector is anticipated to grow at an annual rate of 1.12 percent between 2004 and 2014, based largely on a resurgence of jobs in the Architectural and Structural Metals industry group, which accounts for approximately 30 percent ( 12,000) of the jobs in the subsector ( See Graph 5). The Governor’s Office announced the creation of more than 100 jobs in this subsector in 2007 in Sampson and Rutherford counties. Graph 4 Employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing In North Carolina 1976 - 2004 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: NCESC, Projections Unit Graph 5 Employment in Architectural and Structural Metals In North Carolina 1976 - 2004 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: NCESC, Projections Unit Winter 2008 INSIGHT 6 Graph 6 2006 Average Annual Wage for Select Manufacturing Subsectors $ 31,941 $ 30,846 $ 28,882 $ 41,343 $ 48,168 $ 67,542 $ 0 $ 10,000 $ 20,000 $ 30,000 $ 40,000 $ 50,000 $ 60,000 $ 70,000 $ 80,000 Chemical Tra nsportation Eq uipme nt Fabricated Metal Produ ct Textile Mills Furniture and Related Product Food In addition to the already announced job creation, economic indicators point to foreign exports, the result of strong worldwide growth and a weaker dollar, as a welcome salve to many manufacturing industries. 5 “ Leading gainers in foreign sales include autos and auto parts, civilian aircraft, chemicals and Rx ( prescription) drugs . . .” 6 which are precisely those industries that have a significant presence in North Carolina and are predicted to grow. What are the implications of this growth for the manufacturing employee? The good news is that, with the exception of Food Manufacturing, wages in the growth subsectors outpace those in the more traditional manufacturing sectors in North Carolina. Annual average wages in 2006 in Chemical, Transportation Equipment and Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing all were higher than annual average wages in Textile Mills and Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing ( See Graph 6). Equally important is the fact that there are many occupational titles of a nonspecialized nature that appear with a relatively high frequency across all of the aforementioned industrial subsectors. This means that individuals working in one industry should be able to transfer their knowledge and skills to another industry with little difficulty. As can be seen in Table 1, there are five occupations that appear with some frequency across both the growing and declining Manufacturing subsectors. Interestingly, with the exception of First- Line Supervisors/ Managers, all of the occupations listed require only short (< 1 month) to mid- term ( 1– 12 months) on- the- job training. Thus, the skills required, if learned in a particular subsector, should transfer readily to an alternative manufacturing subsector with a minimum of on- the- job training. Furthermore, three of the five occupations appear on the list of fastest growing production occupations in the state, with Team Assembler topping the list with predicted growth at 15.2 percent from 2004 to 2014.7 5 The Kiplinger Letter, Vol. 84, No. 6 and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Daily Report, Monday November 19, 2007. 6 Ibid at The Kiplinger Letter, P. 1. 7 NCESC, Labor Market Information Division, Projection Unit, Occupational Projections. Source: NCESC, QCEW 7 Winter 2008 INSIGHT Growing Subsectors Declining Subsectors Food Fabricated Metal Product Chemical Transportation Equipment Textiles Mills Furniture and Related Product Occupational Title Training Level* Helpers – Production Workers 11 1,658 468 137 141 1,426 2,647 First- Line Supervisors/ Managers of Production and Operating 8 940 483 828 663 1,151 2,164 Maintenance and Repair Workers – General 10 930 139 982 667 753 551 Team Assemblers 10 494 2,150 69 3,117 111 3,175 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers and Weighers 10 407 71 1,204 704 1,781 1,438 Totals 4,429 3,311 3,220 5,292 5,222 9,975 Grand Totals 16,252 15,197 Table 1 Estimated Number of Workers by Select Occupational Titles in Select Manufacturing Subsectors * Level Description of training required 8 Work exp in a related occupation 10 11 Short- term OJT ( less than 1 month) Mid- term OJT ( 1- 12 months) Of even more interest are the median hourly wages for these occupations. Table 2 shows that, with the exception of the Food Manufacturing subsector, median hourly wages for the occupations of interest in the growing manufacturing subsectors exceed those of the declining, traditional manufacturing subsectors ( Textiles and Furniture). This indicates that it is not only the specialized occupations within the subsectors that are accounting for the higher annual average wages previously mentioned. Declining Subsectors Food Fabricated Metal Product Chemical Transportation Equipment Textiles Mills Furniture and Related Product Occupational Title Helpers – Production Workers $ 10.48 $ 10.70 $ 10.98 $ 10.80 $ 10.49 $ 9.91 First- Line Supervisors/ Managers of Production and Operating $ 19.60 $ 22.01 $ 28.21 $ 23.18 $ 20.16 $ 18.80 Maintenance and Repair Workers – General $ 15.34 $ 17.51 $ 19.92 $ 19.49 $ 14.69 $ 14.08 Team Assemblers $ 10.65 $ 10.91 $ 14.38 $ 15.23 $ 8.99 $ 11.37 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers and Weighers $ 10.84 $ 13.71 $ 15.46 $ 18.14 $ 11.07 $ 11.57 Growing Subsectors Table 2 Estimated Median Hourly Wages for Select Occupational Titles in Select Manufacturing Subsectors Winter 2008 INSIGHT 8 9 Winter 2008 INSIGHT One additional issue with respect to transitional jobs ( from one industry group to another) is that of location. As can be seen on Map 1, manufacturing jobs in Textile Mills and Furniture and Related Products have a slight concentration in the Piedmont Triad Economic Development Region of the state; however, there is representation of all the sectors across the state. Likewise, the growing subsectors have a presence statewide. Additionally, throughout 2007 there were more than 3,100 announced job creations and industry expansions in those subsectors. 8 This is a conservative estimate since some of the announcements either did not contain the number of jobs to be created or the NAICS classification could not be determined. Even so, the classifiable announced jobs span all seven of the state’s Economic Development Regions ( See Map 2). This means manufacturing workers across the state can anticipate new job opportunities, at higher wages, with relatively little additional training required, within close proximity to their current locations. Manufacturing in North Carolina can truly be described as a “ tortoise and hare” situation. Of the Manufacturing subsectors discussed, only Aerospace Product and Parts has experienced any period of dramatic, sudden growth. The rest have not, nor do they anticipate growth in the future; however, their slow and steady growth has situated them solidly in North Carolina’s economy. So, while the changes in manufacturing may not have been “ extreme” in terms of having occurred suddenly, they have certainly had, and continue to have, a significant effect on the “ face” of the industry in the state. It seems quite likely that very soon conversations about manufacturing in North Carolina will shift focus from linens and loungers to meats, motors, medicines and metals. Moreover, manufacturing employees who have weathered the storms of the industry and who have the adaptability to change with the manufacturing landscape, may turn out to be the real winners. 8 NC Department of Commerce, Community Involvement Report. Teri Kaasa is an economist with LMI’s Labor Market and Occupational Research Unit. She can be reached at teri. kaasa@ ncmail. net. Winter 2008 INSIGHT 10 NC ShOW- IT: A Tool For Analyzing Employment Data S hOW- IT, an acronym for Shift- share Occupational Workforce and Industrial Tools, is an extensive database and reporting application for economic analysis developed by the ESC’s Labor Market Information ( LMI) Division. This program allows the user to investigate and analyze employment data for industries over a 17- year period and for occupations over a seven- year period. In addition to neatly organizing data for both industrial and occupational employment, ShOW- IT also evaluates and reports complex calculations, including location quotients ( indicators of employment concentrations), shift- share components ( indicators of economic independence from outside factors) and newly developed indicators of relative industrial and occupational local performance. All of this information can be obtained for industries and occupations, individually or in customized groups, spanning flexible time periods and geographies. By Kevin Hoffman Originally designed with economic developers in mind, ShOW- IT has proven to be useful for many professionals who benefit from readily available economic data ranging from the most basic employment and wage information for occupations and industries to very powerful information showing in- depth analyses of these same data. This target audience might include: • Economic Development Regions ( EDRs) and Workforce Development Boards ( WDBs) planning area economic strategies • Employment office staff assisting individuals and businesses • Education professionals designing curricula • Economists performing research and/ or analysis concerning economic trends • LMI professionals All reports display in preview mode and may then be printed. In addition, all reports may be easily exported to spreadsheet programs like Microsoft Excel or to external files for import into various database programs. Extensive national, state, county, WDB and EDR data for industrial employment for the years 1990 through 2006 have been incorporated into the database as have national, state, WDB and EDR occupational employment data for the years 2000 through 2006. Information is categorized using Bureau of Labor Statistics standard codes ( NAICS for industries and SOC for occupations) along with detailed descriptions. Counties are also referenced by their standard codes and common names. Official definitions for specific industries and occupations are also included and may be reported. One of the major strengths of ShOW- IT is the ability for the user to create customized groups of occupations, clusters of industries and areas of combined counties for analysis purposes. Major occupational groups and industry clusters come predefined as do WDBs and EDRs comprising their respective counties. A truly unique quality of the ShOW- IT program is its ability to perform industry analyses across state borders by including bordering states’ counties in customized areas. This involves a progressive approach to both shift-share and location quotient calculations, allowing for examination of activities in metropolitan areas that cross over state lines. Location quotients are calculated showing relative employment concentrations within a given geography, which can be defined by the user, of specific occupations or industries or customizable groupings of the same. These concentrations are compared with the same industries or occupations — both statewide and nationally — over the same timeframe. The location quotients can be very useful for identifying relative economic strengths or possible economic vulnerabilities of a region. Shift- share analysis can be a solid indicator of an area’s economic independence, showing how much of job growth or decline is due to the specific area’s performance, rather than due to the statewide or national economy or the performance of the industry or occupation as a whole. As an extension of this analysis, the LMI Division has developed new, straightforward measures rating local performance over five grades from strongly positive to strongly negative. While these analyses may sound a little daunting, ShOW-IT does the analysis for you automatically and generates easy- to- read text explanations for the indicators and explains some of their resulting economic implications. 11 Winter 2008 INSIGHT ShOW- IT Version 2.0 Is Now Available • All data files have been updated to include 2006 information and 2014 projections. • South Carolina and Virginia data have been added to allow cross- state areas. • More personalization options are included to customize output. • Interfaces have been enhanced to add features and perform more intuitively. How to Get ShOW- IT For a new complete version: If you are a current user and would simply like to replace your current version with the latest release, or if you are new to ShOW- IT, contact LMI ( see below). To update from an existing version: If you are currently using ShOW- IT and have customized the application by defining your own preferences ( logos, name, address, etc.) or have defined a significant number of customized industry clusters, geographic areas or occupational groups that you do not wish to recreate, LMI can update it for you. Just contact the division to receive instructions for sending your current files. To Contact LMI: Send an e- mail ( with ‘ ShOW- IT’ in the subject line) to esc. lmi. inquiries@ ncmail. net or regular mail to ShOW- IT, Employment Security Commission of NC, Labor Market Information Division, P. O. Box 25903, Raleigh, NC 27611. Please indicate: • Are you a new or current user of ShOW- IT? • Should LMI send a complete new version or update your current copy? • Your name, organization name, e- mail, mailing address and telephone number. Kevin Hoffman is a social research specialist with LMI’s Labor Market and Occupational Research Unit. He can be reached at kevin. hoffman@ ncmail. net. Winter 2008 INSIGHT 12 3,950 4,000 4,050 4,100 4,150 J F M A M J J A S O N D Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates* Economic Indicators in North Carolina Economic Indicators are used to measure economic activity and can be referred to as Lagging, Coincident and Leading Indicators. Lagging Indicators measure where the economy was; Coincident Indicators help determine concurrent changes; and, Leading Indicators predict future economic activity. Total Nonagricultural Employment, in Thousands* Seasonally Adjusted Lagging Indicators Coincident Indicators * Source: ESC, Labor Market Information Division 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2005- 2006 2006- 2007 13 Winter 2008 INSIGHT $ 250 $ 300 $ 350 $ 400 $ 450 $ 500 $ 550 $ 600 $ 650 D J F M A M J J A S O N $ 500 $ 750 $ 1,000 $ 1,250 $ 1,500 $ 1,750 $ 2,000 $ 2,250 $ 2,500 $ 2,750 $ 3,000 $ 3,250 D J F M A M J J A S O N 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D New Business Incorporations Source: NC Secretary of State, Corporations Division Coincident Indicators Sales and Use Tax Revenues, in Millions Statewide In Selected Cities Oct. 2007 Sept. 2007 Oct. 2006 Percent Change From Last Year Asheville 6.6 10.5 7.5 - 12.0 Charlotte 34.5 43 33.7 + 2.4 Durham 10 13.2 10 0.0 Fayetteville 6 9 6.4 - 6.3 Greensboro 13.5 17.3 13.4 + 0.7 Greenville 3.2 4.8 3.3 - 3.0 Hickory 3.9 5.1 3.7 + 5.4 Raleigh 20.7 25.9 20.1 + 3.0 Wilmington 6.7 9.9 7.6 - 11.8 N. C. Department of Revenue, Tax Research Division Winston- Salem 9.4 13.3 9.4 0.0 Source: NC Department of Revenue Total Tax Revenues, in Millions 2005- 2006 2006- 2007 Winter 2008 INSIGHT 14 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D 38 39 40 41 42 43 J F M A M J J A S O N D 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 J F M A M J J A S O N D Initial Claims Average Weekly Hours Worked in Manufacturing In Selected Metropolitan Statistical Areas Statewide, in Thousands Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina Statewide Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina Dec. 2007 Nov. 2007 Dec. 2006 Percent Change From Last Year Asheville 540 410 787 - 31.4 Charlotte 1,175 1,048 1,167 + 0.7 Durham 287 147 181 + 58.6 Fayetteville 272 267 419 - 35.1 Goldsboro 274 220 461 - 40.6 Greensboro 1,018 1,258 1,677 - 39.3 Greenville 514 572 522 - 1.5 Hickory/ Newton 1,128 1,188 1,757 - 35.8 Jacksonville 266 199 185 + 43.8 Raleigh 709 683 586 + 21.0 Wilmington 586 659 643 - 8.9 Winston- Salem 881 730 807 + 9.2 Leading Indicators New Vehicle Registrations Source: NC Automobile Dealers Association Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits Source: US Census Bureau Dec. 2007 Nov. 2007 Dec. 2006 Percent Change From Last Year Charlotte/ Gastonia 44.9 44.7 46.4 - 3.2 Durham 45.2 43.5 43.7 + 3.4 Greensboro/ High Pt. 37.4 38.7 40.6 - 7.9 Raleigh/ Cary 39.4 39.3 40.6 - 3.0 Winston- Salem 42.7 44.1 41.4 + 3.1 2005- 2006 2006- 2007 LABOR MARKET INFORMATION DIVISION EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION OF NORTH CAROLINA POST OFFICE BOX 25903 RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA 27611- 5903 OFFICIAL BUSINESS PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE $ 300.00 50 copies of this publication were produced at a cost of $ 16.00 or $ 0.32 per copy. NCESC 6059 Fall 2007 EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION OF NORTH CAROLINA www. ncesc. com |
OCLC number | 49419748 |