Insight : North Carolina's labor and economic outlook.

              L MI has updated its economic analysis tool,
ShOW- IT ( Shift- share Occupational Workforce
and Industrial Tools). The program, which allows users
to analyze employment data for industries and
occupations on county, state and national levels, has
more features and enhancements, resulting in more
in- depth analysis reports.
Article begins on page 10
NC ShOW- IT: A Tool For Analyzing
Employment Data
T hink North Carolina manufacturing and Textile
Mills or Furniture most likely will come to mind.
Other manufacturing sectors, however, are gaining
ground. Economist Teri Kaasa looks at other up- and-coming
manufacturing industries that may just
compensate for those in decline.
Article begins on page 3
Extreme Makeover: Manufacturing Edition
H ousing foreclosures, drought and manufacturing
job losses may be contributing factors to a possible
downturn in North Carolina’s economy, but to what
extent? LMI Director Dr. Peter A. Neenan examines the
Tar Heel State’s strengths to determine what the
economy will bring over the next six to nine months.
Article begins on page 1
Resilient Economy Should Aid
North Carolina in 2008 Inside This Issue
Resilient Economy Should Aid
North Carolina in 2008 1
Extreme Makeover: Manufacturing
Edition 3
Employment in Pharmaceutical and Medicine
Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976– 2004…… 3
Employment in Soap, Cleaning Compound and
Toilet Preparation Manufacturing in North
Carolina 1976– 2004……………………………...
4
Employment in Motor Vehicle Parts
Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976– 2004…… 4
Employment in Aerospace Product and Parts
Manufacturing in North Carolina 1976– 2004…… 5
Employment in Architectural and Structural Metals
in North Carolina 1976– 2004……………………. 5
2006 Average Annual Wage for Select
Manufacturing Subsectors……………………….. 6
Estimated Number of Workers by Select
Occupational Titles in Select Manufacturing
Subsectors………………………………………...
7
Estimated Median Hourly Wages for Select
Occupational Titles in Select Manufacturing
Subsectors………���……………………………...
7
2006 Annual Average Employment in Select
Manufacturing Subsectors By Economic
Development Region……………………………..
8
Announced Job Openings in 2007 for Target
Manufacturing Subsectors By Economic
Development Region……………………………...
9
NC ShOW- IT: A Tool For Analyzing
Employment Data 10
ShOW- IT Version 2.0 Is Now Available…………... 11
How to Get ShOW- IT………………………………. 11
Economic Indicators in North Carolina 12
U. S. Foreclosure Market Statistics for Top 10 States
Ranked By Population…………………………… 2
Michael F. Easley, Governor Employment Security Commission of North Carolina Harry E. Payne Jr., Chairman
North Carolina’s Labor and Economic Outlook INSIGHT
Volume 7, Number 3 Winter 2008
Insight: North Carolina’s Labor and Economic Outlook is published quarterly by the Labor Market Information Division
of the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina, P. O. Box 25903, Raleigh, NC 27611- 5903. 919/ 733- 2936
Archived editions may be found at www. ncesc. com
Peter A. Neenan, PhD, director, Labor Market Information
Martha Bowman, assistant director, Labor Market Information
Laurie Green, editor
Brett Dyson, layout
Please send comments and suggestions to laurie. green@ ncmail. net
Harry E. Payne Jr., chairman, Employment Security Commission of North Carolina
1 Winter 2008 INSIGHT
On the surface, then, it might appear that North Carolina’s
labor market has attained a steady state of equilibrium,
albeit at a somewhat higher incidence of unemployment
and lower rate of labor force participation than might be
comfortable. The climate certainly appears more
favorable when compared with conditions that prevailed
across the state during the earlier years of the decade. At
that time, unemployment rates were approaching 7
percent and large- scale layoffs in manufacturing
industries were not uncommon.
Several of the state’s industry sectors experienced strong
growth over the past year. Chief among these were
Educational and Health Services, which continued to
expand at a rapid rate ( 4.3%). This sector’s employment
increase over the year ( 21,400 on a seasonally adjusted
basis) accounts for close to one- third of all the state’s
employment growth ( 68,600) during the period. Other
industries also showed marked growth including
Professional and Business Services, Financial Activities,
and Construction. Manufacturing continued to shed
employment (- 11,100), although at a much slower pace
than earlier in the decade.
As North Carolina’s economy displayed resiliency during
the past year, several worrisome clouds appeared on the
horizon which may signal difficulty for the state’s
economy and its labor market conditions during the
months to come. Problems related to credit quality and
availability have received considerable attention in
national and international media. This is particularly true
with respect to the volatile real estate market in many
areas of the country, as witnessed by the increasing
number of loans in default and foreclosure proceedings
( see Table 1). Generally speaking, North Carolina has not
been as subject to wild real estate price fluctuations that
have characterized certain other states and regions.
Nonetheless, it would be unrealistic to expect that our
state can remain completely immune to potentially
negative effects that might flow from national market
dislocations. In addition to any direct or indirect impact
on housing or commercial real estate- related industries
( e. g., suppliers, construction trades, wholesale or retail
trade and services), weaknesses in the financial sector
may affect this increasingly important component of the
state’s labor force.
Another concern, Mother Nature has also not been
particularly kind to the Tar Heel State over the past year.
While the state has been mercifully spared the damage
that can be caused by major hurricanes and other weather
disasters, the longer- term drought is beginning to raise
concerns about the steps necessary to ensure that residents
have adequate access to water for personal use.
Agricultural interests need assurance of access to
necessary supplies for crops and livestock. Should the
drought continue or even worsen, it would not be
unreasonable to expect economic and labor force
dislocations to occur as a result.
Nationally, energy prices increased considerably over the
past year, especially costs for gasoline and other
petroleum derivatives. These increased costs, combined
with increases in other areas of the economy ( e. g., food,
health care), may pose a threat of higher inflation
spreading throughout the economy in the months ahead.
This, in turn, may be anticipated to decrease consumers’
real purchasing power, resulting in a decreased demand
for goods and services.
For the past several years, the Labor Market Information
Division has produced a set of “ Economic Barometers”
that track both coincidental and leading indicators of the
state’s economic well- being. Most current indications
reflect the potential for a modest decline in the state’s
economy over the next six to nine months. At present,
while forecasting a downturn, the measures indicate that it
should not be severe.
Resilient Economy Should Aid
North Carolina in 2008
T he year 2007 was a period of transition for North Carolina’s labor market. As the year drew to a close, signs
became increasingly evident that the prior years’ growth — in both the state’s labor force and civilian
employment — were slowing or declining from previous levels. This changing pattern was consistent with
trends observed at national and regional levels as well. When adjusting for seasonal factors, North Carolina’s labor
force grew by less than 12,000 individuals ( 0.3%) during the year, a rate of increase that was approximately
one- third of that experienced in the nation as a whole over this same period. The state’s unemployment rate,
however, remained essentially steady during 2007, increasing a mere one- tenth of a percentage point to 5.0 percent at
year’s end. Following several months during the spring and summer in which the state’s unemployment rate was
higher than the nation’s, the year’s later months saw a close correspondence between the two — a relationship which
has generally held true for the past three years or so.
By Dr. Peter A. Neenan
Winter 2008 INSIGHT 2
North Carolina’s labor market has been hard hit over the
past couple of years because of competitive labor costs
within the manufacturing industry. Towns and
communities have seen their workforce challenged as
textiles and furniture relocate to less costly production
locations. Through it all, the state’s economy has
remained generally resilient due to its favorable location,
and diverse industrial and occupational mix. State leaders
have displayed an active commitment to forward- thinking
economic and workforce development strategies.
Hopefully, this combination of strengths should enable
the state to weather any stormy seas in the near term and
to continue its successful transitioning to a 21st century
economy.
Rank
State
Name
Total
Foreclosure
Filings
% Households
( foreclosure
rate)
1 California 481,392 1.921
2 Texas 149,703 0.936
3 New York 57,350 0.493
4 Florida 279,325 2.002
5 Illinois 90,782 1.250
6 Pennsylvania 34,089 0.302
7 Ohio 153,196 1.797
8 Michigan 136,205 1.947
9 Georgia 99,578 1.566
10 North Carolina 37,426 0.739
Table 1
U. S. Foreclosure Market Statistics for Top 10 States
Ranked By Population
Source: http:// www. realtytrac. com/ ContentManagement/ pressrelease. aspx? ChannellD= 9& ItemlD= 3988& accnt= 64847
Dr. Peter A. Neenan is director of the Labor Market Information Division.
3 Winter 2008 INSIGHT
Extreme Makeover: Manufacturing Edition
W hich manufacturing subsector provided the most jobs in North Carolina during the first three quarters of
2007? If you are thinking Textile Mills or Furniture, you’re wrong. The historical bastions of employment
in North Carolina’s manufacturing industries have quietly and nearly imperceptibly been overtaken by
slow, but steady growth in Food Manufacturing.
By Teri Kaasa
If you are surprised, then you’re probably not alone.
Many people, even within the economic community,
would also be surprised to learn that employment in
Food Manufacturing surpassed employment in Textile
Mills in May 2006 and Furniture in April 2007.1
While the ability of employment in Food
Manufacturing to overtake that of the two largest
manufacturing industries of the late ‘ 90s and early 2000
can be attributed more to declines in employment in
these industries than to significant growth in the former,
growth in Food Manufacturing has been slow, but
steady over the last few years. Moreover, it is
indicative of the changing face of manufacturing in
North Carolina.
In addition to Food, several other subsectors are vying
to take a prominent place among manufacturing
employers in the state. Most notably, employment in
Chemical, Transportation Equipment, and Fabricated
Metal Product Manufacturing are all expected to grow at
an annualized growth rate of at least 1 percent between
2004 and 2014,2 with current employment already
averaging between 35,000 and 45,000 annually.
The Chemical Manufacturing subsector currently
comprises approximately 45,000 jobs, with 45 percent
( 20,000) falling in the Pharmaceutical and Medicine
Manufacturing industry group. Growth in this industry,
therefore, is anticipated largely on the basis of prolonged
sound performances in Pharmaceutical and Medicine as
well as Soap, Cleaning Compound and Toilet Preparation
Manufacturing ( See Graphs 1 and 2). 3
1 NCESC, Current Employment Statistics
2 NCESC, Occupational Trends/ Projections
3 Ibid
Graph 1
Employment in Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing
in North Carolina
1976 - 2004
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: NCESC, Projections Unit
Winter 2008 INSIGHT 4
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing currently
accounts for approximately 35,000 jobs, with an
anticipated growth rate of 1 percent per year from
2004 to 2014.4 The largest industry group within
this subsector, accounting for 52 percent of the jobs,
is Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing. This industry
group has shown steady and consistent growth since
1976, with an increase exceeding 6 percent between 2001
and 2004 ( See Graph 3).
4 Ibid.
Graph 2
Employment in Soap, Cleaning Compound And
Toilet Preparation Manufacturing
in North Carolina
1976 - 2004
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Source: NCESC, Projections Unit
Graph 3
Employment in Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing
In North Carolina
1976 - 2004
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Source: NCESC, Projections Unit
Although accounting for a significantly smaller
number of jobs ( 3,000), the Aerospace Product and
Parts Manufacturing industry group has experienced
significant growth since 1976 ( See Graph 4), and is
poised to continue its growth. North Carolina Gov.
Mike Easley in 2007 announced the creation of more
than 350 jobs related to the expansion and location of
interests of Honda Aero Inc. in Alamance and Guilford
counties over the next five years. Additionally, the
Governor’s Office announced the expansion of Smiths
Aerospace in Buncombe County, which is slated to create
200 jobs within this industry group.
5 Winter 2008 INSIGHT
Finally, Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
currently includes approximately 39,000 jobs. This
subsector is anticipated to grow at an annual rate of 1.12
percent between 2004 and 2014, based largely on a
resurgence of jobs in the Architectural and Structural
Metals industry group, which accounts for approximately 30
percent ( 12,000) of the jobs in the subsector ( See Graph 5).
The Governor’s Office announced the creation of more than
100 jobs in this subsector in 2007 in Sampson and
Rutherford counties.
Graph 4
Employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing
In North Carolina
1976 - 2004
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Source: NCESC, Projections Unit
Graph 5
Employment in Architectural and Structural Metals
In North Carolina
1976 - 2004
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Source: NCESC, Projections Unit
Winter 2008 INSIGHT 6
Graph 6
2006 Average Annual Wage for Select Manufacturing Subsectors
$ 31,941 $ 30,846 $ 28,882
$ 41,343
$ 48,168
$ 67,542
$ 0
$ 10,000
$ 20,000
$ 30,000
$ 40,000
$ 50,000
$ 60,000
$ 70,000
$ 80,000
Chemical
Tra nsportation Eq uipme nt
Fabricated Metal Produ ct
Textile Mills
Furniture and Related Product
Food
In addition to the already announced job creation,
economic indicators point to foreign exports, the
result of strong worldwide growth and a weaker
dollar, as a welcome salve to many manufacturing
industries. 5 “ Leading gainers in foreign sales include
autos and auto parts, civilian aircraft, chemicals and
Rx ( prescription) drugs . . .” 6 which are precisely those
industries that have a significant presence in North
Carolina and are predicted to grow.
What are the implications of this growth for the
manufacturing employee? The good news is that, with
the exception of Food Manufacturing, wages in the
growth subsectors outpace those in the more traditional
manufacturing sectors in North Carolina. Annual average
wages in 2006 in Chemical, Transportation Equipment
and Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing all were
higher than annual average wages in Textile Mills and
Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing ( See Graph
6).
Equally important is the fact that there are many
occupational titles of a nonspecialized nature that
appear with a relatively high frequency across all of the
aforementioned industrial subsectors. This means that
individuals working in one industry should be able to
transfer their knowledge and skills to another
industry with little difficulty. As can be seen in
Table 1, there are five occupations that appear with
some frequency across both the growing and
declining Manufacturing subsectors.
Interestingly, with the exception of First- Line
Supervisors/ Managers, all of the occupations listed
require only short (< 1 month) to mid- term ( 1– 12
months) on- the- job training. Thus, the skills required,
if learned in a particular subsector, should transfer readily
to an alternative manufacturing subsector with a
minimum of on- the- job training. Furthermore, three of
the five occupations appear on the list of fastest growing
production occupations in the state, with Team
Assembler topping the list with predicted growth at 15.2
percent from 2004 to 2014.7
5 The Kiplinger Letter, Vol. 84, No. 6 and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Daily
Report, Monday November 19, 2007.
6 Ibid at The Kiplinger Letter, P. 1.
7 NCESC, Labor Market Information Division, Projection Unit, Occupational
Projections.
Source: NCESC, QCEW
7 Winter 2008 INSIGHT
Growing Subsectors Declining Subsectors
Food
Fabricated
Metal
Product
Chemical Transportation
Equipment
Textiles
Mills
Furniture
and Related
Product
Occupational Title Training
Level*
Helpers – Production Workers 11 1,658 468 137 141 1,426 2,647
First- Line Supervisors/ Managers
of Production and Operating 8 940 483 828 663 1,151 2,164
Maintenance and Repair
Workers – General 10 930 139 982 667 753 551
Team Assemblers 10 494 2,150 69 3,117 111 3,175
Inspectors, Testers, Sorters,
Samplers and Weighers 10 407 71 1,204 704 1,781 1,438
Totals 4,429 3,311 3,220 5,292 5,222 9,975
Grand Totals 16,252 15,197
Table 1
Estimated Number of Workers by Select Occupational Titles
in Select Manufacturing Subsectors
* Level Description of training required
8 Work exp in a related occupation
10
11 Short- term OJT ( less than 1 month)
Mid- term OJT ( 1- 12 months)
Of even more interest are the median hourly wages for
these occupations. Table 2 shows that, with the
exception of the Food Manufacturing subsector,
median hourly wages for the occupations of interest in
the growing manufacturing subsectors exceed those of
the declining, traditional manufacturing subsectors
( Textiles and Furniture). This indicates that it is not only
the specialized occupations within the subsectors that are
accounting for the higher annual average wages
previously mentioned.
Declining Subsectors
Food
Fabricated
Metal
Product
Chemical Transportation
Equipment
Textiles
Mills
Furniture
and Related
Product
Occupational Title
Helpers – Production Workers $ 10.48 $ 10.70 $ 10.98 $ 10.80 $ 10.49 $ 9.91
First- Line Supervisors/ Managers of
Production and Operating $ 19.60 $ 22.01 $ 28.21 $ 23.18 $ 20.16 $ 18.80
Maintenance and Repair
Workers – General $ 15.34 $ 17.51 $ 19.92 $ 19.49 $ 14.69 $ 14.08
Team Assemblers $ 10.65 $ 10.91 $ 14.38 $ 15.23 $ 8.99 $ 11.37
Inspectors, Testers, Sorters,
Samplers and Weighers $ 10.84 $ 13.71 $ 15.46 $ 18.14 $ 11.07 $ 11.57
Growing Subsectors
Table 2
Estimated Median Hourly Wages for Select Occupational Titles
in Select Manufacturing Subsectors
Winter 2008 INSIGHT 8
9 Winter 2008 INSIGHT
One additional issue with respect to transitional jobs
( from one industry group to another) is that of location.
As can be seen on Map 1, manufacturing jobs in Textile
Mills and Furniture and Related Products have a slight
concentration in the Piedmont Triad Economic
Development Region of the state; however, there is
representation of all the sectors across the state.
Likewise, the growing subsectors have a presence
statewide.
Additionally, throughout 2007 there were more than
3,100 announced job creations and industry expansions
in those subsectors. 8 This is a conservative estimate
since some of the announcements either did not contain
the number of jobs to be created or the NAICS
classification could not be determined. Even so, the
classifiable announced jobs span all seven of the state’s
Economic Development Regions ( See Map 2). This
means manufacturing workers across the state can
anticipate new job opportunities, at higher wages, with
relatively little additional training required, within close
proximity to their current locations.
Manufacturing in North Carolina can truly be described
as a “ tortoise and hare” situation. Of the Manufacturing
subsectors discussed, only Aerospace Product and Parts
has experienced any period of dramatic, sudden growth.
The rest have not, nor do they anticipate growth in the
future; however, their slow and steady growth has
situated them solidly in North Carolina’s economy. So,
while the changes in manufacturing may not have been
“ extreme” in terms of having occurred suddenly, they
have certainly had, and continue to have, a significant
effect on the “ face” of the industry in the state. It seems
quite likely that very soon conversations about
manufacturing in North Carolina will shift focus from
linens and loungers to meats, motors, medicines and
metals. Moreover, manufacturing employees who have
weathered the storms of the industry and who have the
adaptability to change with the manufacturing landscape,
may turn out to be the real winners.
8 NC Department of Commerce, Community Involvement Report.
Teri Kaasa is an economist with LMI’s Labor Market and Occupational Research Unit. She can be reached at
teri. kaasa@ ncmail. net.
Winter 2008 INSIGHT 10
NC ShOW- IT: A Tool For Analyzing Employment Data
S hOW- IT, an acronym for Shift- share Occupational Workforce and Industrial Tools, is an extensive database
and reporting application for economic analysis developed by the ESC’s Labor Market Information ( LMI)
Division. This program allows the user to investigate and analyze employment data for industries over a
17- year period and for occupations over a seven- year period. In addition to neatly organizing data for both industrial
and occupational employment, ShOW- IT also evaluates and reports complex calculations, including location
quotients ( indicators of employment concentrations), shift- share components ( indicators of economic independence
from outside factors) and newly developed indicators of relative industrial and occupational local performance. All
of this information can be obtained for industries and occupations, individually or in customized groups, spanning
flexible time periods and geographies.
By Kevin Hoffman
Originally designed with economic developers in mind,
ShOW- IT has proven to be useful for many
professionals who benefit from readily available
economic data ranging from the most basic employment
and wage information for occupations and industries
to very powerful information showing in- depth analyses
of these same data. This target audience might include:
• Economic Development Regions ( EDRs) and
Workforce Development Boards
( WDBs) planning area economic strategies
• Employment office staff assisting individuals and
businesses
• Education professionals designing curricula
• Economists performing research and/ or analysis
concerning economic trends
• LMI professionals
All reports display in preview mode and may then be
printed. In addition, all reports may be easily exported
to spreadsheet programs like Microsoft Excel or to
external files for import into various database programs.
Extensive national, state, county, WDB and EDR data
for industrial employment for the years 1990 through
2006 have been incorporated into the database as have
national, state, WDB and EDR occupational
employment data for the years 2000 through 2006.
Information is categorized using Bureau of Labor
Statistics standard codes ( NAICS for industries and
SOC for occupations) along with detailed descriptions.
Counties are also referenced by their standard codes
and common names. Official definitions for specific
industries and occupations are also included and may be
reported.
One of the major strengths of ShOW- IT is the ability for
the user to create customized groups of occupations,
clusters of industries and areas of combined counties for
analysis purposes. Major occupational groups and
industry clusters come predefined as do WDBs and EDRs
comprising their respective counties.
A truly unique quality of the ShOW- IT program is its
ability to perform industry analyses across state borders
by including bordering states’ counties in customized
areas. This involves a progressive approach to both shift-share
and location quotient calculations, allowing for
examination of activities in metropolitan areas that cross
over state lines.
Location quotients are calculated showing relative
employment concentrations within a given geography,
which can be defined by the user, of specific occupations
or industries or customizable groupings of the same.
These concentrations are compared with the same
industries or occupations — both statewide and
nationally — over the same timeframe. The location
quotients can be very useful for identifying relative
economic strengths or possible economic vulnerabilities
of a region.
Shift- share analysis can be a solid indicator of an area’s
economic independence, showing how much of job
growth or decline is due to the specific area’s
performance, rather than due to the statewide or national
economy or the performance of the industry or
occupation as a whole. As an extension of this analysis,
the LMI Division has developed new, straightforward
measures rating local performance over five grades from
strongly positive to strongly negative.
While these analyses may sound a little daunting, ShOW-IT
does the analysis for you automatically and generates
easy- to- read text explanations for the indicators and
explains some of their resulting economic implications.
11 Winter 2008 INSIGHT
ShOW- IT Version 2.0 Is Now Available
• All data files have been updated to include 2006 information and 2014 projections.
• South Carolina and Virginia data have been added to allow cross- state areas.
• More personalization options are included to customize output.
• Interfaces have been enhanced to add features and perform more intuitively.
How to Get ShOW- IT
For a new complete version:
If you are a current user and would simply like to replace your current version with the latest release, or if you are
new to ShOW- IT, contact LMI ( see below).
To update from an existing version:
If you are currently using ShOW- IT and have customized the application by defining your own preferences ( logos,
name, address, etc.) or have defined a significant number of customized industry clusters, geographic areas or
occupational groups that you do not wish to recreate, LMI can update it for you. Just contact the division to receive
instructions for sending your current files.
To Contact LMI:
Send an e- mail ( with ‘ ShOW- IT’ in the subject line) to esc. lmi. inquiries@ ncmail. net or regular mail to ShOW- IT,
Employment Security Commission of NC, Labor Market Information Division, P. O. Box 25903, Raleigh, NC 27611.
Please indicate:
• Are you a new or current user of ShOW- IT?
• Should LMI send a complete new version or update your current copy?
• Your name, organization name, e- mail, mailing address and telephone number.
Kevin Hoffman is a social research specialist with LMI’s Labor Market and Occupational Research Unit. He
can be reached at kevin. hoffman@ ncmail. net.
Winter 2008 INSIGHT 12
3,950
4,000
4,050
4,100
4,150
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates*
Economic Indicators in North Carolina
Economic Indicators are used to measure economic activity and can be referred to as Lagging, Coincident and
Leading Indicators. Lagging Indicators measure where the economy was; Coincident Indicators help
determine concurrent changes; and, Leading Indicators predict future economic activity.
Total Nonagricultural Employment, in Thousands* Seasonally Adjusted
Lagging Indicators
Coincident Indicators
* Source: ESC, Labor Market Information Division
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2005- 2006 2006- 2007
13 Winter 2008 INSIGHT
$ 250
$ 300
$ 350
$ 400
$ 450
$ 500
$ 550
$ 600
$ 650
D J F M A M J J A S O N
$ 500
$ 750
$ 1,000
$ 1,250
$ 1,500
$ 1,750
$ 2,000
$ 2,250
$ 2,500
$ 2,750
$ 3,000
$ 3,250
D J F M A M J J A S O N
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
New Business Incorporations
Source: NC Secretary of State, Corporations Division
Coincident Indicators
Sales and Use Tax Revenues, in Millions
Statewide In Selected Cities
Oct.
2007
Sept.
2007
Oct.
2006
Percent Change
From Last Year
Asheville 6.6 10.5 7.5 - 12.0
Charlotte 34.5 43 33.7 + 2.4
Durham 10 13.2 10 0.0
Fayetteville 6 9 6.4 - 6.3
Greensboro 13.5 17.3 13.4 + 0.7
Greenville 3.2 4.8 3.3 - 3.0
Hickory 3.9 5.1 3.7 + 5.4
Raleigh 20.7 25.9 20.1 + 3.0
Wilmington 6.7 9.9 7.6 - 11.8
N. C. Department of Revenue, Tax Research Division Winston- Salem 9.4 13.3 9.4 0.0
Source: NC Department of Revenue
Total Tax Revenues, in Millions
2005- 2006 2006- 2007
Winter 2008 INSIGHT 14
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
38
39
40
41
42
43
J F M A M J J A S O N D
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Initial Claims
Average Weekly Hours Worked in Manufacturing
In Selected Metropolitan Statistical Areas
Statewide, in Thousands
Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina
Statewide
Source: Employment Security Commission of North Carolina
Dec.
2007
Nov.
2007
Dec.
2006
Percent Change
From Last Year
Asheville 540 410 787 - 31.4
Charlotte 1,175 1,048 1,167 + 0.7
Durham 287 147 181 + 58.6
Fayetteville 272 267 419 - 35.1
Goldsboro 274 220 461 - 40.6
Greensboro 1,018 1,258 1,677 - 39.3
Greenville 514 572 522 - 1.5
Hickory/ Newton 1,128 1,188 1,757 - 35.8
Jacksonville 266 199 185 + 43.8
Raleigh 709 683 586 + 21.0
Wilmington 586 659 643 - 8.9
Winston- Salem 881 730 807 + 9.2
Leading Indicators
New Vehicle Registrations
Source: NC Automobile Dealers Association
Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits
Source: US Census Bureau
Dec.
2007
Nov.
2007
Dec.
2006
Percent Change
From Last Year
Charlotte/ Gastonia 44.9 44.7 46.4 - 3.2
Durham 45.2 43.5 43.7 + 3.4
Greensboro/ High Pt. 37.4 38.7 40.6 - 7.9
Raleigh/ Cary 39.4 39.3 40.6 - 3.0
Winston- Salem 42.7 44.1 41.4 + 3.1
2005- 2006 2006- 2007
LABOR MARKET INFORMATION DIVISION
EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION OF NORTH CAROLINA
POST OFFICE BOX 25903
RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA 27611- 5903
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
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NCESC 6059 Fall 2007
EMPLOYMENT SECURITY COMMISSION OF NORTH CAROLINA
www. ncesc. com