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July marked a minor statistical milestone for North Carolina’s economy – the State
unemployment rate dipped below the US for the first time in nearly two years.
However, the number of employed people declined as well. We’ve seen a high
degree of volatility in this data in 2016. Since the beginning of the year, the labor
force participation rate (LFPR) has had the two greatest monthly increases and
decreases of the past five years; and has now settled back to its January level.
Remember that monthly estimates can sometimes be noisy and distort the bigger
picture. The broader trend still points to a tightening labor market.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
6-Month Projected Growth
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rate
NC US
North Carolina = 4.7%
United States = 4.9%
August 2016
NC Department of Commerce | Labor & Economic Analysis Division | 919.707.1500 | lead@nccommerce.com
Monthly Dashboard*
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Leading Indicators for North Carolina
Unemployment Rate Comparison
4.7%
NC
5.5 percentage
points from
10.2% in
July 2011
NC
US
*All data produced in this publication are based off July 2016 figures, are generated by LEAD, and have been seasonally adjusted and/or
smoothed unless otherwise stated. Dollar amounts have been adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index.
Source: NC Dept. of Revenue
Note: June 2016 data most current
available at time of release.
Source: The Conference Board
Help Wanted Online
Source: United States Census Bureau
NC Note: Includes multiple-unit housing.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Note: June 2016 data most current available.
Data
Unemployment Rate Change
Change in Employed
Change in Unemployed
Labor Force
Participation Rate
Initial UI Claims
4.9%
US
Real Taxable Retail Sales
Job Postings
Residential Building Permits
Manufacturing Hours Worked
Unemployment Rate Trend
This leading index
predicts the six-month
growth rate of the
state’s economy (as
measured by the
Phili Fed’s current
indicator index). A
positive number
reflects economic
growth, while a
negative projects a
decline.
4.1 percentage
points from
9.0% in
July 2011
Virginia
Tennessee
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina
Alabama
West Virginia
Industry Employment
4,340,600 Total Nonfarm Jobs
12,953 (5.4%) 13,000 (0.2%)
12,000 over the month
94,100 over the year
0.2 0.0
13,203 (0.3%) 420,000 (2.6%)
0.4 to 61.1% 0.1 to 62.8%
15,788 Individuals Filing
324 over the month
3,587 over the year
$541.9M over the month
$579.6M over the year
1.0% over the month
11.7% over the year
3.2% over the month
8.4% over the year
0.7% over the month
1.0% over the year
Note: Not Seasonally Adjusted
4.3
5.7
3.7
4.7
5.7
5.2
5.0
WV
VT
NH
RI
NJ
DE
MD
DC
AK
HI
CT
MA
TX
CA
MT
AZ
ID
NV
NM
CO
OR
KS
UT IL
WY
NE
SD
MN
IA
OK
ND
FL
MO
WI
GA
WA
AL
AR
MI
IN
NC
PA
LA
NY
MS
TN
VA
KY
OH
SC
ME 2.8 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.0 7.0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
In Millions
0
20
40
60
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
In Thousands
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
3,800
3,900
4,000
4,100
4,200
4,300
4,400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
In Thousands NC Department of Commerce | Labor & Economic Analysis Division | 919.707.1500 | lead@nccommerce.com
Source: NC Dept. of Revenue
Note: June 2016 data most current available at time of release.
Source: United States Census Bureau
Note: Includes multiple-unit housing.
Unemployment Rate By County (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Lowest
Highest
Buncombe 3.8%
Wake 4.1%
Henderson 4.2%
Chatham 4.2%
Dare 4.2%
Total Nonfarm Jobs Average Real Weekly Earnings (Private Nonfarm Sector)
Labor Force Participation Rate
Residential Building Permits
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Real Taxable Retail Sales
Scotland 9.0%
Edgecombe 8.5%
Wilson 8.4%
Halifax 8.1%
3.8 5.0 5.5 6.5 7.5 9.0 Vance 7.6%
*All data produced in this publication are based off July 2016 figures, are generated by LEAD, and have been seasonally adjusted and/or smoothed unless otherwise stated.
Dollar amounts have been adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index.
Object Description
Description
| Title | North Carolina today |
| Other Title | North Carolina today (North Carolina. Labor Market Information Division); NC today |
| Date | 2016-08 |
| Description | August 2016 |
| Digital Characteristics-A | 2.32 MB; 2 p. |
| Digital Format |
application/pdf |
| Pres File Name-M | pubs_serial_nctoday201608.pdf |
| Full Text | July marked a minor statistical milestone for North Carolina’s economy – the State unemployment rate dipped below the US for the first time in nearly two years. However, the number of employed people declined as well. We’ve seen a high degree of volatility in this data in 2016. Since the beginning of the year, the labor force participation rate (LFPR) has had the two greatest monthly increases and decreases of the past five years; and has now settled back to its January level. Remember that monthly estimates can sometimes be noisy and distort the bigger picture. The broader trend still points to a tightening labor market. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 6-Month Projected Growth 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Rate NC US North Carolina = 4.7% United States = 4.9% August 2016 NC Department of Commerce | Labor & Economic Analysis Division | 919.707.1500 | lead@nccommerce.com Monthly Dashboard* Philadelphia Federal Reserve Leading Indicators for North Carolina Unemployment Rate Comparison 4.7% NC 5.5 percentage points from 10.2% in July 2011 NC US *All data produced in this publication are based off July 2016 figures, are generated by LEAD, and have been seasonally adjusted and/or smoothed unless otherwise stated. Dollar amounts have been adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index. Source: NC Dept. of Revenue Note: June 2016 data most current available at time of release. Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted Online Source: United States Census Bureau NC Note: Includes multiple-unit housing. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Note: June 2016 data most current available. Data Unemployment Rate Change Change in Employed Change in Unemployed Labor Force Participation Rate Initial UI Claims 4.9% US Real Taxable Retail Sales Job Postings Residential Building Permits Manufacturing Hours Worked Unemployment Rate Trend This leading index predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s economy (as measured by the Phili Fed’s current indicator index). A positive number reflects economic growth, while a negative projects a decline. 4.1 percentage points from 9.0% in July 2011 Virginia Tennessee Georgia South Carolina North Carolina Alabama West Virginia Industry Employment 4,340,600 Total Nonfarm Jobs 12,953 (5.4%) 13,000 (0.2%) 12,000 over the month 94,100 over the year 0.2 0.0 13,203 (0.3%) 420,000 (2.6%) 0.4 to 61.1% 0.1 to 62.8% 15,788 Individuals Filing 324 over the month 3,587 over the year $541.9M over the month $579.6M over the year 1.0% over the month 11.7% over the year 3.2% over the month 8.4% over the year 0.7% over the month 1.0% over the year Note: Not Seasonally Adjusted 4.3 5.7 3.7 4.7 5.7 5.2 5.0 WV VT NH RI NJ DE MD DC AK HI CT MA TX CA MT AZ ID NV NM CO OR KS UT IL WY NE SD MN IA OK ND FL MO WI GA WA AL AR MI IN NC PA LA NY MS TN VA KY OH SC ME 2.8 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.0 7.0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 In Millions 0 20 40 60 80 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 In Thousands 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 3,800 3,900 4,000 4,100 4,200 4,300 4,400 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 In Thousands NC Department of Commerce | Labor & Economic Analysis Division | 919.707.1500 | lead@nccommerce.com Source: NC Dept. of Revenue Note: June 2016 data most current available at time of release. Source: United States Census Bureau Note: Includes multiple-unit housing. Unemployment Rate By County (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Lowest Highest Buncombe 3.8% Wake 4.1% Henderson 4.2% Chatham 4.2% Dare 4.2% Total Nonfarm Jobs Average Real Weekly Earnings (Private Nonfarm Sector) Labor Force Participation Rate Residential Building Permits Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Real Taxable Retail Sales Scotland 9.0% Edgecombe 8.5% Wilson 8.4% Halifax 8.1% 3.8 5.0 5.5 6.5 7.5 9.0 Vance 7.6% *All data produced in this publication are based off July 2016 figures, are generated by LEAD, and have been seasonally adjusted and/or smoothed unless otherwise stated. Dollar amounts have been adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index. |
| OCLC number | 16694113 |
