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data- net WWW. SOUTHNOW. ORG O C T O B E R 2 0 0 8 , I S S U E 4 7 No r th Ca ro l ina { T H E P R O G R A M O N P U B L I C L I F E } FERREL GUILLORY Director guillor y@ unc. edu THAD BEYLE Associate Director beyle@ email. unc. edu TODD BRANTLEY Graduate Associate jtbrant1@ email. unc. edu HODDING CARTER, I I I Leadership Fellow hoddingcarter@ unc. edu ANDREW HOLTON Assistant Director for Research holton@ unc. edu JUSTIN MARTIN Graduate Associate martinjd@ email. unc. edu D. LEROY TOWNS Research Fellow dltowns@ email. unc. edu THE PROGRAM ON PUBLIC LIFE is a non- partisan organization devoted to serving the people of North Carolina and the South by informing the public agenda and nurturing leadership. To receive an electronic version or to subscribe to the printed version, send your name and e- mail address to southnow@ unc. edu. ! e Program on Public Life is part of the Center for the Study of the American South at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. 2008 North Carolina Election Primer J U S T I N M A R T I N , T O D D B R A N T L E Y A N D T H A D B E Y L E North Carolina, a state that hasn’t supported a Democratic candidate for president since 1976, has become one of the nation’s electoral- vote battleground theaters. While neither the Democratic nor the Republican presidential campaigns purchased a single primetime advertisement in North Carolina in 2004, North Carolina voters now see the presidential-campaign entreaties familiar to TV viewers in swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Competitive races for open seats in both the presidential and gubernatorial elections will work to elevate turnout. In order to provide guidance in navigating the political trends and changes in the Tar Heel state, this issue of North Carolina DataNet offers statewide electorate information to scholars, journalists, and voters. Here are some findings to supplement the data we’ve pulled together: Voter registration has passed 6 million, a new peak for the state. Overall voter registration in North Carolina is up 9.41 percent from November 2004, and most of the new voters have registered since the first of this year. However, the increase in North Carolina voter registration in the first nine months of 2008 ( 7.8) is less than the increase in registration during roughly the same period in 2004 ( 9.82 percent). From January to October 2008, Democratic voter registration in North Carolina was up 9.23 percent— an increase of 230,848 registrants— to more than 2.7 million. Republican registration increased by just 2.2 percent in the same time period. Registration of unaffiliated voters in North Carolina is up nearly 14 percent since the beginning of 2008. ! e rate of increase in registered African American voters has recently outpaced the rate for white registration. While white voters still outnumber black voters in North Carolina by more than three million, the number of black registrants in the state has increased by 12.54 percent since January 2008. Registration of white voters is up 5.1 percent in the same period. Hispanic registration is up sharply this year— by more than 40 percent— although Hispanics currently represent fewer than one percent of all eligible voters in North Carolina. Neither the Democratic Party nor the GOP enjoys a majority of public support in North Carolina. As of October 6, 2008, Democrats comprised about 45.35 percent of registered voters in the state, while 32.4 percent were registered Republicans. continued on page 2 1 From 11/ 2004 – 10/ 6/ 2008 2 From 1/ 1/ 2004 – 11/ 2004 3 From 1/ 5/ 2008– 10/ 6/ 2008 4 As of 9/ 27/ 2004 5 As of 10/ 4/ 2008 2 D ATA N E T ! e big story in registration trends involves unaffiliated voters, who now represent more than one- fifth of the North Carolina electorate. While the actual numbers rose within the major parties, both Democratic and Republican affiliation decreased between late 2004 and October 2008 as a share of the total electorate. Unaffiliated voters, meanwhile, now account for 22.1 percent of all registrants, up from 18.5 percent in 2004. ! is is an historic election in terms of gender and race, in the nation and in North Carolina. Among the candidates in the three major campaigns on the ballot, there are four women: Sarah Palin, the Republican candidate for vice president; Elizabeth Dole, the Republican candidate for the U. S. Senate; Kay Hagan, the Democratic candidate for the U. S. Senate; and Beverly Perdue, the Democratic candidate for governor. In the presidential election, Barack Obama, the first black candidate of a major political party, has targeted North Carolina and made the state highly competitive in his race against Republican John McCain. North Carolina is among a minority of states that conduct statewide elections simultaneously with presidential elections. So the 2008 elections bring back a 12- year pattern: elections for president, U. S. senator and governor at the top of the ballot. ! e Republican Party last swept all three in 1984. ! e Democratic Party hasn’t won all three since 1960. As was the case in 2000, metropolitan areas largely account for statewide election turnout. In 2004, 15 of 100 North Carolina counties accounted for 51.1 percent of votes in the presidential election. In 2000, Bush won 12 of the top 15 counties, while Gore took three. In 2004, however, Bush won just six of the top 15 counties, and Kerry won 9. ! e 2008 presidential election will reveal whether Democrats can continue to win in the state’s major metropolitan areas while attracting new voters in rural areas. ! e partisan line- up of North Carolina’s delegation to the U. S. House currently stands at seven Democrats and six Republicans. Incumbents are expected to win re- election in 12 of the 13 districts. ! e 8th District re- match between Republican incumbent Robin Hayes and Democratic challenger Larry Kissell is considered a toss- up among political analysts in a year in which polls have reported leads for both candidates. In the 2006 election, Hayes defeated Kissell by only 329 votes out of 121,523 cast. Director’s Note ! is issue of North Carolina DataNet reflects the work of ! ad Beyle, associate director of the Program on Public Life who recently retired from full- time teaching in the UNC Department of Political Science. ! roughout his career, ! ad has compiled an extensive data base on North Carolina politics. Justin Martin, a third- year Ph. D. student in the UNC School of Journalism and Mass Communication, and Todd Brantley, a master’s student in the School of Journalism & Mass Communication and a graduate associate in the Program, assisted in compiling charts and writing the essay of findings. We also thank Progress Energy for its sustained financial assistance in disseminating DataNet and SouthNow newsletters. T 1968 1970 1966 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2002 2003 2004 2006 2008* 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 79.7% Democrats 17.8% Republicans 2.5% Unaffiliated 45.3% Democrats 32.4% Republicans 22.1% Unaffiliated * As of October 6, 2008 Year Total NC Voting Age Population # of Voters % of Voting Age Pop. # of Voters % of Reg. Voters % of Voting Age Pop. Pres. Sen. Gov. 1960 2,585,000 N/ A N/ A 1,268,556 --- 52.9 D D D 1962 2,647,000 N/ A N/ A 813,155 --- 30.7 - D - 1964 2,723,000 N/ A N/ A 1,424,983 --- 52.3 D - D 1966 2,798,000 1,933,763 69.1 901,978 46.6 32.2 - D - 1968 2,921,000 2,077,538 71.1 1,587,493 76.4 54.4 D D D 1970 3,043,000 1,945,187 63.9 932,948 63.9 30.7 - - - 1972 3,541,399 2,357,645 66.6 1,518,612 64.4 42.9 R R R 1974 3,725,037 2,279,646 61.2 1,020,367 44.8 27.4 - D - 1976 3,884,477 2,553,717 65.7 1,677,906 65.7 43.2 D - D 1978 4,053,977 2,430,306 59.9 1,135,814 46.7 28.0 - R - 1980 4,222,654 2,774,844 65.7 1,855,833 66.9 43.9 R R D 1982 4,416,444 2,674,787 65.1 1,330,630 49.7 30.1 - - - 1984 4,585,788 3,270,933 71.3 2,239,051 68.5 47.4 R R R 1986 4,738,687 3,080,990 65.0 1,591,330 51.6 33.6 - D - 1988 4,887,358 3,432,042 70.2 2,134,370 62.2 43.7 R - R 1990 5,016,747 3,347,635 66.7 2,070,585 61.9 41.2 - R - 1992 5,182,321 3,817,380 73.7 2,611,850 68.4 50.4 R R D 1994 5,359,333 3,635,875 67.8 1,533,728 42.2 28.6 - - - 1996 5,499,000 4,330,657 78.8 2,618,326 60.5 47.6 R R D 1998 5,620,000 4,740,272 84.3 2,012,143 42.4 35.8 - D - 2000 6,085,266 5,122,123 84.2 3,015,964 58.9 49.6 R - D 2002 6,085,281 5,043,334 82.9 2,330,454 46.2 38.3 - R - 2004 6,483,010 5,519,992 85.1 3,552,499 64.4 54.8 R R D 2006 6,490,000 5,567,424 85.8 2,036,451 36.6 31.4 - - - 2008 7,148,000 6,041,289 84.5 ----------- --- --- - - - NC Voter Registration & Turnout in General Elections, 1960 – 2006 NC Voters’ Party Registration: 1966– 2008 Total NC Registered North Carolina Turnout Party of Winner Sources: Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa, ! e Almanac of American Politics ( Washington, DC: National Journal, 1972– 2004); US Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the United States ( various years); Federal Elections Commission; Office of the Secretary of State, North Carolina Manual ( Raleigh: Department of State, since 1966); NC State Board of Elections web site, “ General Voter Registration and Election Statistics”; ( Note: while the figure for NC voting- age population in 2008 was pulled from the State Board of Elections web site on 10/ 7/ 08, the BOE did not report the month in 2008 in which the figure was estimated); NC Center for Public Policy Research, North Carolina Focus ( 1989) and “ " e Two Party System in North Carolina,” ( Raleigh, December 1987); and Curtis Gans, Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. OC TOB E R 2 0 0 8 3 Growth of NC Voters in Presidential Election Years, 1960 – 2004 Source: Source: NC State Board of Elections 2004, 2008 1960 1964 1968* 1972 1976* 1980 1984 1988* 1992 1996 2000* 2004 1,000,000 % Growth Over 1960 Election % Growth Over Last Election * No U. S Senate race this year. 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 12.3% 12.3% 11.4% 25.1% - 4.3% 19.7% 10.5% 32.3% 10.6% 46.3% 20.6% 76.5% - 4.7% 68.3% 22.4% 105.9% 0.2% 106.4% 15.2% 137.7% 17.8% 180.0% Change in N. C. Voter Registration by Party, 2004 – 2008 Party Identification Percentage of Total Registered Voters Republican Democrat Unaffiliated Change in N. C. Voter Registration by Race and Gender, 2004 – 2008 Jan 2008 Oct 4, 2008 Jan 2004 78% White 19% Black 0.2% Hispanic 0.8% American- Indian 75% White 21% Black 1% Hispanic 0.8% American- Indian 76% White 20% Black 0.7% Hispanic 0.8% American- Indian 55% 55% 54% 45% 45% 45% 4 D ATA N E T 1 Month and year the poll was conducted. 2 Pollster = who conducted the poll: CP - Carolina Poll ( UNC- CH); IR = Independent Research Poll; LHP = Louis Harris Poll; MD Mason- Dixon Poll; N& O - News & Observer/ FGI Poll; R2 = Research 2000 Poll; SUSA Survey USA Poll. 3 % Pos. = % of the respondents giving the governor positive marks for his performance— approve, excellent/ good, etc. 4 % Neg. = % of the respondents giving the governor negative marks for his job performance— disapprove, fair/ poor, etc. Late Term NC Gubernatorial Job Approval Ratings in Polls Late Term NC Presidential Job Approval Ratings in Polls 1 Month and year the poll was conducted. 2 Pollster = who conducted the poll: CP - Carolina Poll ( UNC- CH); EU = Elon University Poll; KPC = KPC Poll for Knight Ridder Media; MD = Mason- Dixon; R2 = Research 2000 Poll; VNS = Voter News services Election Day Exit Poll. 3 % Pos. = % of the respondents giving the president positive marks for his performance— approve, excellent/ good, etc. 4 % Neg. = % of the respondents giving the president negative marks for his job performance— disapprove, fair/ poor, etc. Late Term NC US Senatorial Job Approval Ratings in Polls 1 Month and year the poll was conducted. 2 Pollster = who conducted the poll: CP - Carolina Poll ( UNC- CH); EU = Elon University Poll; MD = Mason- Dixon Poll; N& O - News & Observer/ FGI Poll; R2 = Research 2000 Poll 3 % Pos. = % of the respondents giving the senator positive marks for his or her performance— approve, excellent/ good, etc. 4 % Neg. = % of the respondents giving the senator negative marks for his or her job performance — disapprove, fair/ poor, etc. OC TOB E R 2 0 0 8 5 Race Growth of NC Registered Voters, 1968 – 2008 2008 Congressional Districts in NC ( Ranked From Most Republican to Most Democratic Districts by Party Registration) CD# Incumbent2 Type3 Projection4 % White5 Rep. Dem. Una Pres. Gov. 6th Coble, R IRUP SR 89.2 46.5 32.9 20.5 30.7 46.4 5th Foxx, R IRUP SR 91.7 46.1 34.4 19.5 31.3 47.1 10th McHenry, R IR SR 90.1 43.3 35.9 20.8 32.1 46.3 9th Myrick, R IR SR 84.7 43.0 32.4 24.5 35.2 46.0 3rd Jones, R IR LR 82.4 36.4 42.4 21.3 32.8 50.6 11th Heath, D IRUP SW 93.8 35.2 40.3 24.5 40.8 53.1 8th Hayes, R IRUP SW 67.5 30.3 48.9 20.8 43.6 57.4 2nd Etheridge, D IRUP LD 65.7 30.3 50.9 18.9 44.1 58.8 7th McIntyre, D IRUP LD 72.7 30.0 50.4 19.6 43.7 58.7 4th Price, D IRUP LD 75.9 29.4 45.1 25.5 51.0 61.0 3th Miller, D IR SD 69.5 28.4 50.4 21.2 51.1 62.7 12th Watt, D IRUP SD 49.4 24.7 56.8 18.5 59.8 68.2 1st Butterfield, D IRUP SD 48.8 18.1 68.3 13.6 57.5 70.6 1 Party Registration, percent who were Republicans, Democrats or Unaffiliated as of 1/ 2/ 08, NC Board of Elections. 2 Current incumbent and party 3 Race Type = IR – incumbent running for reelection; IRUP – incumbent running unopposed in party primary; OP – open seat. 4 Proj. = projection of election outcome: SR – Strong Republican; LR – Leaning Republican; SW – Swing District; LD – Leaning Democrat; and SD – Strong Democrat. 5 % White = percent of the registered voters who are white as of 1/ 2/ 08, NC Board of Elections. 6 2004 Voting = % voting for the Democratic candidate in the Presidential race [ Kerry] and in the Governor’s race [ Easley]. Party Reg. 2004 Vote % 6 D ATA N E T Political Lineage of US Senate Seat at Stake in 2008 Senator/ Party1 NC County Years In Senate How Senator Entered2 / Left Office3 Matt Ransom, D Northampton 1872– 95 e / LG Marion Butler, Pop Sampson 1895– 1901 e / LG Furnifold Simmons, D Jones 1901– 31 e / LP Josiah Bailey, D Wake 1931– 46 e / d William B. Umstead, D Durham 1946– 48 a / LP J. Melville Broughton, D Wake 1948– 49 e / d Frank Porter Graham, D Orange 1949– 50 a / LP Willis Smith, D Wake 1950– 53 e / d Alton Lennon, D New Hanover 1953– 54 a / LP W. Kerr Scott, D Alamance 1954– 58 e / d B. Everett Jordan, D Alamance 1958– 73 a / LP Jesse Helms, R Wake 1973– 2002 e / r Elizabeth Dole, R Rowan 2003– e 1 Party: D = Democratic; Pop. = Populist; R = Republican. 2 How entered office: a = appointed; e = elected. 3 How left office: d = died; LG = lost in general election; LP = lost in party primary; r = retired. Presidential Voting in North Carolina, 1900– 2004 Year & Party1 NC Vote % [+] or [-] US Vote2 NC Vote % [+] or [-] US Vote3 1900- R 45.5 - 6.2 54.2 + 8.7 1904- R 39.7 - 20.3 55.2 + 17.6 1908- R 45.5 - 9.0 54.4 + 11.4 1912- D 12.0 - 12.9 4 59.2 + 17.4 1916- D 41.7 - 6.6 58.1 + 8.9 1920- R 43.2 - 17.1 56.8 + 20.6 1924- R 40.3 - 14.4 59.6 + 24.8 1928- R 54.9 - 3.3 45.1 + 3.9 1932- D 29.5 - 10.3 69.8 + 10.7 1936- D 26.6 - 9.9 73.4 + 10.9 1940- D 26.0 - 18.8 74.0 + 19.0 1944- D 33.3 - 12.6 66.7 + 12.9 1948- D 36.0 - 12.4 58.0 + 5.7 1952- R 46.1 - 9.0 53.9 + 8.3 1956- R 49.3 - 8.1 50.7 + 8.5 1960- D 47.9 - 1.6 52.1 + 2.0 1964- D 43.9 + 5.3 56.2 - 5.1 1968- R 44.2 - 3.9 42.5 - 6.7 1972- R 70.6 + 8.8 28.9 - 9.3 1976- D 44.4 - 3.8 55.3 + 4.2 1980- R 51.1 - 1.4 47.2 + 2.5 1984- R 62.0 + 3.1 37.9 - 2.9 1988- R 58.0 + 4.6 41.8 - 4.6 1992- D 50.5 + 6.0 49.5 - 4.0 1996- D 52.5 + 8.2 47.4 - 7.3 2000- R 56.5 + 6.6 43.5 - 6.6 2004- R 56.0 + 5.3 43.6 - 4.7 Republicans Democrats 1Election year and party winning the White House 2 The percentage point margin by which the NC Republican share of the two- party vote for president exceeded [+] or trailed [-] the Republican percentage nationally. 3 The percentage point margin by which the NC Democratic share of the two- party vote for president exceeded [+] or trailed [-] the Democratic percentage nationally. 4 Republican Party % of the 2- party vote as former Republican President Teddy Roosevelt ran on the Progressive of “ Bull Moose” Party ticket winning 30% of the vote nationally and 28.4% of the NC vote. Sources: America at the Polls, 1996 [ Storrs, CT: The Roper Center, University of Connecticut, 1997]: 92– 95; The State of 2 Parties [ Raleigh: NC Center for Public Policy Research, 1987]: 13– 14; Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa/ Michael C. Cohen, The Almanac of American Politics [ Washington, DC: The National Journal, various years]. OC TOB E R 2 0 0 8 7 Most Expensive Gubernatorial Races, 1968– 2004 1 Adjusted for inflation to the July 2008 value of the U. S. dollar. 2 CPV stands for “ cost per vote” in U. S. dollars. Most Expensive U. S. Senate Races, 1972– 2004 1 Adjusted for inflation to the July 2008 value of the U. S. dollar. 2 CPV stands for “ cost per vote” in U. S. dollars. The 12- Year Patter: Candidates Who Won North Carolina When Top of the Ballot Has 3 Major Races: 1948 – 1996 1948 President US Senate Governer 1960 1972 1984 1996 2008 Harry Truman, D Mel Broughton, D W. Kerr Scott, D John F. Kennedy, D B. Everett Jordan, D Terry Sanford, D Richard Nixon, R Jesse Helms, R Jim Holshouser, R Ronald Reagan, R Jesse Helms, R Jim Martin, R Robert Dole, R Jesse Helms, R Jim Hunt, D John McCain, R Barack Obama, D Elizabeth Dole, R Kay Hagan, D Pat McCrory, R Beverly Perdue, D PROGRAM ON PUBLIC LIFE The Center for the Study of the American South The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CB# 3365 Chapel Hill, NC, 27599- 9127 southnow@ unc. edu N O N $ P R O F I T O R G A N I Z A T I O N U . S . P O S T A G E P A I D P E R M I T N O . 1 7 7 C H A P E L H I L L , N C Year Dem Rep Total Dem Rep Total CPV3 Winner Party4 % Spent5 Most % 1972 .470 .654 1.124 2.474 3.443 5.918 23.74 R- 54 R – 58 1974 .781 .386 1.167 3.488 1.721 5.209 5.15 D- 63 D – 67 1978 .264 8.123 8.387 .849 23.990 24.839 23.74 R – 55 R – 97 1980 .948 1.176 2.124 2.529 3.136 5.664 3.17 R – 50 R – 55 1984 9.462 16.918 26.379 20.046 35.842 55.889 25.09 R – 52 R – 64 1986 4.169 5.188 9.357 8.371 10.418 18.789 11.81 D – 52 R – 55 1990 7.812 17.762 25.573 13.151 29.902 43.052 20.80 R – 53 R – 69 1992 2.486 2.952 5.438 3.897 4.627 8.524 3.31 R – 50 R – 54 1996 7.993 14.589 22.582 11.210 20.462 31.672 12.57 R – 53 R – 65 1998 8.3331 9.376 17.707 11.243 12.653 23.896 11.88 D – 51 R – 53 2002 13.306 13.735 27.042 16.267 16.791 33.058 14.18 R – 54 R – 51 2004 13.360 12.853 26.213 15.553 14.963 30.516 8.79 R – 52 D – 51 Annual Dollars ( millions) ‘ Mother’s Milk’ and US Senate Races in NC, 1972– 20041 2008$ ( millions) 2 1The major party candidates in these elections were: 1972 - Nick Galifianakis, D and Jesse Helms, R; 1974 – Robert Morgan, D and William Stevens, R; 1978 – John Ingram, D and Helms, R; 1980 – Morgan, D and John East, R; 1984 – Jim Hunt, D and Helms, R; 1986 – Terry Sanford, D and James Broyhill, R; 1990 – Harvey Gantt, D and Helms, R; 1992 – Sanford, D and Lauch Faircloth, R; 1996 – Gantt, D and Helms, R; 1998 – John Edwards, D and R; 2002 – Erskine Bowles, D and Elizabeth Dole, R; 2004 – Bowles, D and Richard Burr, R. 2 The 2008 Dollar Equivalents are based on the 1982– 84 Consumer Price Index equal to 1000 and modified to July 2008 dollars. The value of the July 2008 dollar on the 1982- 84 base was 2.19964. The July 2008 equivalents for the above years are as follows: 1972 dollars = .190 of the 2008 dollar; 1974 = .224; 1978 = .331; 1980 = .375; 1984 = .482; 1986 = .498; 1990 = .594; 1992 = .638; 1996 = .713; 1998 = .741; 2002 = .818; 2004 = .859. 3CPV = cost per general election vote, total amount spent in 2008$ divided by total votes cast in the general election. 4Party% = party of winning candidate and the winner’s % share of the vote. 5Spent most % = which party’s candidate spent the most money in the campaign and the % share of that spending. Sources: Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa/ Richard E. Cohen, The Almanac of American Politics, ( Washington, DC: National Journal) published in the years following each of the elections, 1978 to 2008, and the Federal Elections Commission Web site: www. fec. gov
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Full Text | data- net WWW. SOUTHNOW. ORG O C T O B E R 2 0 0 8 , I S S U E 4 7 No r th Ca ro l ina { T H E P R O G R A M O N P U B L I C L I F E } FERREL GUILLORY Director guillor y@ unc. edu THAD BEYLE Associate Director beyle@ email. unc. edu TODD BRANTLEY Graduate Associate jtbrant1@ email. unc. edu HODDING CARTER, I I I Leadership Fellow hoddingcarter@ unc. edu ANDREW HOLTON Assistant Director for Research holton@ unc. edu JUSTIN MARTIN Graduate Associate martinjd@ email. unc. edu D. LEROY TOWNS Research Fellow dltowns@ email. unc. edu THE PROGRAM ON PUBLIC LIFE is a non- partisan organization devoted to serving the people of North Carolina and the South by informing the public agenda and nurturing leadership. To receive an electronic version or to subscribe to the printed version, send your name and e- mail address to southnow@ unc. edu. ! e Program on Public Life is part of the Center for the Study of the American South at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. 2008 North Carolina Election Primer J U S T I N M A R T I N , T O D D B R A N T L E Y A N D T H A D B E Y L E North Carolina, a state that hasn’t supported a Democratic candidate for president since 1976, has become one of the nation’s electoral- vote battleground theaters. While neither the Democratic nor the Republican presidential campaigns purchased a single primetime advertisement in North Carolina in 2004, North Carolina voters now see the presidential-campaign entreaties familiar to TV viewers in swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Competitive races for open seats in both the presidential and gubernatorial elections will work to elevate turnout. In order to provide guidance in navigating the political trends and changes in the Tar Heel state, this issue of North Carolina DataNet offers statewide electorate information to scholars, journalists, and voters. Here are some findings to supplement the data we’ve pulled together: Voter registration has passed 6 million, a new peak for the state. Overall voter registration in North Carolina is up 9.41 percent from November 2004, and most of the new voters have registered since the first of this year. However, the increase in North Carolina voter registration in the first nine months of 2008 ( 7.8) is less than the increase in registration during roughly the same period in 2004 ( 9.82 percent). From January to October 2008, Democratic voter registration in North Carolina was up 9.23 percent— an increase of 230,848 registrants— to more than 2.7 million. Republican registration increased by just 2.2 percent in the same time period. Registration of unaffiliated voters in North Carolina is up nearly 14 percent since the beginning of 2008. ! e rate of increase in registered African American voters has recently outpaced the rate for white registration. While white voters still outnumber black voters in North Carolina by more than three million, the number of black registrants in the state has increased by 12.54 percent since January 2008. Registration of white voters is up 5.1 percent in the same period. Hispanic registration is up sharply this year— by more than 40 percent— although Hispanics currently represent fewer than one percent of all eligible voters in North Carolina. Neither the Democratic Party nor the GOP enjoys a majority of public support in North Carolina. As of October 6, 2008, Democrats comprised about 45.35 percent of registered voters in the state, while 32.4 percent were registered Republicans. continued on page 2 1 From 11/ 2004 – 10/ 6/ 2008 2 From 1/ 1/ 2004 – 11/ 2004 3 From 1/ 5/ 2008– 10/ 6/ 2008 4 As of 9/ 27/ 2004 5 As of 10/ 4/ 2008 2 D ATA N E T ! e big story in registration trends involves unaffiliated voters, who now represent more than one- fifth of the North Carolina electorate. While the actual numbers rose within the major parties, both Democratic and Republican affiliation decreased between late 2004 and October 2008 as a share of the total electorate. Unaffiliated voters, meanwhile, now account for 22.1 percent of all registrants, up from 18.5 percent in 2004. ! is is an historic election in terms of gender and race, in the nation and in North Carolina. Among the candidates in the three major campaigns on the ballot, there are four women: Sarah Palin, the Republican candidate for vice president; Elizabeth Dole, the Republican candidate for the U. S. Senate; Kay Hagan, the Democratic candidate for the U. S. Senate; and Beverly Perdue, the Democratic candidate for governor. In the presidential election, Barack Obama, the first black candidate of a major political party, has targeted North Carolina and made the state highly competitive in his race against Republican John McCain. North Carolina is among a minority of states that conduct statewide elections simultaneously with presidential elections. So the 2008 elections bring back a 12- year pattern: elections for president, U. S. senator and governor at the top of the ballot. ! e Republican Party last swept all three in 1984. ! e Democratic Party hasn’t won all three since 1960. As was the case in 2000, metropolitan areas largely account for statewide election turnout. In 2004, 15 of 100 North Carolina counties accounted for 51.1 percent of votes in the presidential election. In 2000, Bush won 12 of the top 15 counties, while Gore took three. In 2004, however, Bush won just six of the top 15 counties, and Kerry won 9. ! e 2008 presidential election will reveal whether Democrats can continue to win in the state’s major metropolitan areas while attracting new voters in rural areas. ! e partisan line- up of North Carolina’s delegation to the U. S. House currently stands at seven Democrats and six Republicans. Incumbents are expected to win re- election in 12 of the 13 districts. ! e 8th District re- match between Republican incumbent Robin Hayes and Democratic challenger Larry Kissell is considered a toss- up among political analysts in a year in which polls have reported leads for both candidates. In the 2006 election, Hayes defeated Kissell by only 329 votes out of 121,523 cast. Director’s Note ! is issue of North Carolina DataNet reflects the work of ! ad Beyle, associate director of the Program on Public Life who recently retired from full- time teaching in the UNC Department of Political Science. ! roughout his career, ! ad has compiled an extensive data base on North Carolina politics. Justin Martin, a third- year Ph. D. student in the UNC School of Journalism and Mass Communication, and Todd Brantley, a master’s student in the School of Journalism & Mass Communication and a graduate associate in the Program, assisted in compiling charts and writing the essay of findings. We also thank Progress Energy for its sustained financial assistance in disseminating DataNet and SouthNow newsletters. T 1968 1970 1966 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2002 2003 2004 2006 2008* 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 79.7% Democrats 17.8% Republicans 2.5% Unaffiliated 45.3% Democrats 32.4% Republicans 22.1% Unaffiliated * As of October 6, 2008 Year Total NC Voting Age Population # of Voters % of Voting Age Pop. # of Voters % of Reg. Voters % of Voting Age Pop. Pres. Sen. Gov. 1960 2,585,000 N/ A N/ A 1,268,556 --- 52.9 D D D 1962 2,647,000 N/ A N/ A 813,155 --- 30.7 - D - 1964 2,723,000 N/ A N/ A 1,424,983 --- 52.3 D - D 1966 2,798,000 1,933,763 69.1 901,978 46.6 32.2 - D - 1968 2,921,000 2,077,538 71.1 1,587,493 76.4 54.4 D D D 1970 3,043,000 1,945,187 63.9 932,948 63.9 30.7 - - - 1972 3,541,399 2,357,645 66.6 1,518,612 64.4 42.9 R R R 1974 3,725,037 2,279,646 61.2 1,020,367 44.8 27.4 - D - 1976 3,884,477 2,553,717 65.7 1,677,906 65.7 43.2 D - D 1978 4,053,977 2,430,306 59.9 1,135,814 46.7 28.0 - R - 1980 4,222,654 2,774,844 65.7 1,855,833 66.9 43.9 R R D 1982 4,416,444 2,674,787 65.1 1,330,630 49.7 30.1 - - - 1984 4,585,788 3,270,933 71.3 2,239,051 68.5 47.4 R R R 1986 4,738,687 3,080,990 65.0 1,591,330 51.6 33.6 - D - 1988 4,887,358 3,432,042 70.2 2,134,370 62.2 43.7 R - R 1990 5,016,747 3,347,635 66.7 2,070,585 61.9 41.2 - R - 1992 5,182,321 3,817,380 73.7 2,611,850 68.4 50.4 R R D 1994 5,359,333 3,635,875 67.8 1,533,728 42.2 28.6 - - - 1996 5,499,000 4,330,657 78.8 2,618,326 60.5 47.6 R R D 1998 5,620,000 4,740,272 84.3 2,012,143 42.4 35.8 - D - 2000 6,085,266 5,122,123 84.2 3,015,964 58.9 49.6 R - D 2002 6,085,281 5,043,334 82.9 2,330,454 46.2 38.3 - R - 2004 6,483,010 5,519,992 85.1 3,552,499 64.4 54.8 R R D 2006 6,490,000 5,567,424 85.8 2,036,451 36.6 31.4 - - - 2008 7,148,000 6,041,289 84.5 ----------- --- --- - - - NC Voter Registration & Turnout in General Elections, 1960 – 2006 NC Voters’ Party Registration: 1966– 2008 Total NC Registered North Carolina Turnout Party of Winner Sources: Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa, ! e Almanac of American Politics ( Washington, DC: National Journal, 1972– 2004); US Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the United States ( various years); Federal Elections Commission; Office of the Secretary of State, North Carolina Manual ( Raleigh: Department of State, since 1966); NC State Board of Elections web site, “ General Voter Registration and Election Statistics”; ( Note: while the figure for NC voting- age population in 2008 was pulled from the State Board of Elections web site on 10/ 7/ 08, the BOE did not report the month in 2008 in which the figure was estimated); NC Center for Public Policy Research, North Carolina Focus ( 1989) and “ " e Two Party System in North Carolina,” ( Raleigh, December 1987); and Curtis Gans, Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. OC TOB E R 2 0 0 8 3 Growth of NC Voters in Presidential Election Years, 1960 – 2004 Source: Source: NC State Board of Elections 2004, 2008 1960 1964 1968* 1972 1976* 1980 1984 1988* 1992 1996 2000* 2004 1,000,000 % Growth Over 1960 Election % Growth Over Last Election * No U. S Senate race this year. 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 12.3% 12.3% 11.4% 25.1% - 4.3% 19.7% 10.5% 32.3% 10.6% 46.3% 20.6% 76.5% - 4.7% 68.3% 22.4% 105.9% 0.2% 106.4% 15.2% 137.7% 17.8% 180.0% Change in N. C. Voter Registration by Party, 2004 – 2008 Party Identification Percentage of Total Registered Voters Republican Democrat Unaffiliated Change in N. C. Voter Registration by Race and Gender, 2004 – 2008 Jan 2008 Oct 4, 2008 Jan 2004 78% White 19% Black 0.2% Hispanic 0.8% American- Indian 75% White 21% Black 1% Hispanic 0.8% American- Indian 76% White 20% Black 0.7% Hispanic 0.8% American- Indian 55% 55% 54% 45% 45% 45% 4 D ATA N E T 1 Month and year the poll was conducted. 2 Pollster = who conducted the poll: CP - Carolina Poll ( UNC- CH); IR = Independent Research Poll; LHP = Louis Harris Poll; MD Mason- Dixon Poll; N& O - News & Observer/ FGI Poll; R2 = Research 2000 Poll; SUSA Survey USA Poll. 3 % Pos. = % of the respondents giving the governor positive marks for his performance— approve, excellent/ good, etc. 4 % Neg. = % of the respondents giving the governor negative marks for his job performance— disapprove, fair/ poor, etc. Late Term NC Gubernatorial Job Approval Ratings in Polls Late Term NC Presidential Job Approval Ratings in Polls 1 Month and year the poll was conducted. 2 Pollster = who conducted the poll: CP - Carolina Poll ( UNC- CH); EU = Elon University Poll; KPC = KPC Poll for Knight Ridder Media; MD = Mason- Dixon; R2 = Research 2000 Poll; VNS = Voter News services Election Day Exit Poll. 3 % Pos. = % of the respondents giving the president positive marks for his performance— approve, excellent/ good, etc. 4 % Neg. = % of the respondents giving the president negative marks for his job performance— disapprove, fair/ poor, etc. Late Term NC US Senatorial Job Approval Ratings in Polls 1 Month and year the poll was conducted. 2 Pollster = who conducted the poll: CP - Carolina Poll ( UNC- CH); EU = Elon University Poll; MD = Mason- Dixon Poll; N& O - News & Observer/ FGI Poll; R2 = Research 2000 Poll 3 % Pos. = % of the respondents giving the senator positive marks for his or her performance— approve, excellent/ good, etc. 4 % Neg. = % of the respondents giving the senator negative marks for his or her job performance — disapprove, fair/ poor, etc. OC TOB E R 2 0 0 8 5 Race Growth of NC Registered Voters, 1968 – 2008 2008 Congressional Districts in NC ( Ranked From Most Republican to Most Democratic Districts by Party Registration) CD# Incumbent2 Type3 Projection4 % White5 Rep. Dem. Una Pres. Gov. 6th Coble, R IRUP SR 89.2 46.5 32.9 20.5 30.7 46.4 5th Foxx, R IRUP SR 91.7 46.1 34.4 19.5 31.3 47.1 10th McHenry, R IR SR 90.1 43.3 35.9 20.8 32.1 46.3 9th Myrick, R IR SR 84.7 43.0 32.4 24.5 35.2 46.0 3rd Jones, R IR LR 82.4 36.4 42.4 21.3 32.8 50.6 11th Heath, D IRUP SW 93.8 35.2 40.3 24.5 40.8 53.1 8th Hayes, R IRUP SW 67.5 30.3 48.9 20.8 43.6 57.4 2nd Etheridge, D IRUP LD 65.7 30.3 50.9 18.9 44.1 58.8 7th McIntyre, D IRUP LD 72.7 30.0 50.4 19.6 43.7 58.7 4th Price, D IRUP LD 75.9 29.4 45.1 25.5 51.0 61.0 3th Miller, D IR SD 69.5 28.4 50.4 21.2 51.1 62.7 12th Watt, D IRUP SD 49.4 24.7 56.8 18.5 59.8 68.2 1st Butterfield, D IRUP SD 48.8 18.1 68.3 13.6 57.5 70.6 1 Party Registration, percent who were Republicans, Democrats or Unaffiliated as of 1/ 2/ 08, NC Board of Elections. 2 Current incumbent and party 3 Race Type = IR – incumbent running for reelection; IRUP – incumbent running unopposed in party primary; OP – open seat. 4 Proj. = projection of election outcome: SR – Strong Republican; LR – Leaning Republican; SW – Swing District; LD – Leaning Democrat; and SD – Strong Democrat. 5 % White = percent of the registered voters who are white as of 1/ 2/ 08, NC Board of Elections. 6 2004 Voting = % voting for the Democratic candidate in the Presidential race [ Kerry] and in the Governor’s race [ Easley]. Party Reg. 2004 Vote % 6 D ATA N E T Political Lineage of US Senate Seat at Stake in 2008 Senator/ Party1 NC County Years In Senate How Senator Entered2 / Left Office3 Matt Ransom, D Northampton 1872– 95 e / LG Marion Butler, Pop Sampson 1895– 1901 e / LG Furnifold Simmons, D Jones 1901– 31 e / LP Josiah Bailey, D Wake 1931– 46 e / d William B. Umstead, D Durham 1946– 48 a / LP J. Melville Broughton, D Wake 1948– 49 e / d Frank Porter Graham, D Orange 1949– 50 a / LP Willis Smith, D Wake 1950– 53 e / d Alton Lennon, D New Hanover 1953– 54 a / LP W. Kerr Scott, D Alamance 1954– 58 e / d B. Everett Jordan, D Alamance 1958– 73 a / LP Jesse Helms, R Wake 1973– 2002 e / r Elizabeth Dole, R Rowan 2003– e 1 Party: D = Democratic; Pop. = Populist; R = Republican. 2 How entered office: a = appointed; e = elected. 3 How left office: d = died; LG = lost in general election; LP = lost in party primary; r = retired. Presidential Voting in North Carolina, 1900– 2004 Year & Party1 NC Vote % [+] or [-] US Vote2 NC Vote % [+] or [-] US Vote3 1900- R 45.5 - 6.2 54.2 + 8.7 1904- R 39.7 - 20.3 55.2 + 17.6 1908- R 45.5 - 9.0 54.4 + 11.4 1912- D 12.0 - 12.9 4 59.2 + 17.4 1916- D 41.7 - 6.6 58.1 + 8.9 1920- R 43.2 - 17.1 56.8 + 20.6 1924- R 40.3 - 14.4 59.6 + 24.8 1928- R 54.9 - 3.3 45.1 + 3.9 1932- D 29.5 - 10.3 69.8 + 10.7 1936- D 26.6 - 9.9 73.4 + 10.9 1940- D 26.0 - 18.8 74.0 + 19.0 1944- D 33.3 - 12.6 66.7 + 12.9 1948- D 36.0 - 12.4 58.0 + 5.7 1952- R 46.1 - 9.0 53.9 + 8.3 1956- R 49.3 - 8.1 50.7 + 8.5 1960- D 47.9 - 1.6 52.1 + 2.0 1964- D 43.9 + 5.3 56.2 - 5.1 1968- R 44.2 - 3.9 42.5 - 6.7 1972- R 70.6 + 8.8 28.9 - 9.3 1976- D 44.4 - 3.8 55.3 + 4.2 1980- R 51.1 - 1.4 47.2 + 2.5 1984- R 62.0 + 3.1 37.9 - 2.9 1988- R 58.0 + 4.6 41.8 - 4.6 1992- D 50.5 + 6.0 49.5 - 4.0 1996- D 52.5 + 8.2 47.4 - 7.3 2000- R 56.5 + 6.6 43.5 - 6.6 2004- R 56.0 + 5.3 43.6 - 4.7 Republicans Democrats 1Election year and party winning the White House 2 The percentage point margin by which the NC Republican share of the two- party vote for president exceeded [+] or trailed [-] the Republican percentage nationally. 3 The percentage point margin by which the NC Democratic share of the two- party vote for president exceeded [+] or trailed [-] the Democratic percentage nationally. 4 Republican Party % of the 2- party vote as former Republican President Teddy Roosevelt ran on the Progressive of “ Bull Moose” Party ticket winning 30% of the vote nationally and 28.4% of the NC vote. Sources: America at the Polls, 1996 [ Storrs, CT: The Roper Center, University of Connecticut, 1997]: 92– 95; The State of 2 Parties [ Raleigh: NC Center for Public Policy Research, 1987]: 13– 14; Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa/ Michael C. Cohen, The Almanac of American Politics [ Washington, DC: The National Journal, various years]. OC TOB E R 2 0 0 8 7 Most Expensive Gubernatorial Races, 1968– 2004 1 Adjusted for inflation to the July 2008 value of the U. S. dollar. 2 CPV stands for “ cost per vote” in U. S. dollars. Most Expensive U. S. Senate Races, 1972– 2004 1 Adjusted for inflation to the July 2008 value of the U. S. dollar. 2 CPV stands for “ cost per vote” in U. S. dollars. The 12- Year Patter: Candidates Who Won North Carolina When Top of the Ballot Has 3 Major Races: 1948 – 1996 1948 President US Senate Governer 1960 1972 1984 1996 2008 Harry Truman, D Mel Broughton, D W. Kerr Scott, D John F. Kennedy, D B. Everett Jordan, D Terry Sanford, D Richard Nixon, R Jesse Helms, R Jim Holshouser, R Ronald Reagan, R Jesse Helms, R Jim Martin, R Robert Dole, R Jesse Helms, R Jim Hunt, D John McCain, R Barack Obama, D Elizabeth Dole, R Kay Hagan, D Pat McCrory, R Beverly Perdue, D PROGRAM ON PUBLIC LIFE The Center for the Study of the American South The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CB# 3365 Chapel Hill, NC, 27599- 9127 southnow@ unc. edu N O N $ P R O F I T O R G A N I Z A T I O N U . S . P O S T A G E P A I D P E R M I T N O . 1 7 7 C H A P E L H I L L , N C Year Dem Rep Total Dem Rep Total CPV3 Winner Party4 % Spent5 Most % 1972 .470 .654 1.124 2.474 3.443 5.918 23.74 R- 54 R – 58 1974 .781 .386 1.167 3.488 1.721 5.209 5.15 D- 63 D – 67 1978 .264 8.123 8.387 .849 23.990 24.839 23.74 R – 55 R – 97 1980 .948 1.176 2.124 2.529 3.136 5.664 3.17 R – 50 R – 55 1984 9.462 16.918 26.379 20.046 35.842 55.889 25.09 R – 52 R – 64 1986 4.169 5.188 9.357 8.371 10.418 18.789 11.81 D – 52 R – 55 1990 7.812 17.762 25.573 13.151 29.902 43.052 20.80 R – 53 R – 69 1992 2.486 2.952 5.438 3.897 4.627 8.524 3.31 R – 50 R – 54 1996 7.993 14.589 22.582 11.210 20.462 31.672 12.57 R – 53 R – 65 1998 8.3331 9.376 17.707 11.243 12.653 23.896 11.88 D – 51 R – 53 2002 13.306 13.735 27.042 16.267 16.791 33.058 14.18 R – 54 R – 51 2004 13.360 12.853 26.213 15.553 14.963 30.516 8.79 R – 52 D – 51 Annual Dollars ( millions) ‘ Mother’s Milk’ and US Senate Races in NC, 1972– 20041 2008$ ( millions) 2 1The major party candidates in these elections were: 1972 - Nick Galifianakis, D and Jesse Helms, R; 1974 – Robert Morgan, D and William Stevens, R; 1978 – John Ingram, D and Helms, R; 1980 – Morgan, D and John East, R; 1984 – Jim Hunt, D and Helms, R; 1986 – Terry Sanford, D and James Broyhill, R; 1990 – Harvey Gantt, D and Helms, R; 1992 – Sanford, D and Lauch Faircloth, R; 1996 – Gantt, D and Helms, R; 1998 – John Edwards, D and R; 2002 – Erskine Bowles, D and Elizabeth Dole, R; 2004 – Bowles, D and Richard Burr, R. 2 The 2008 Dollar Equivalents are based on the 1982– 84 Consumer Price Index equal to 1000 and modified to July 2008 dollars. The value of the July 2008 dollar on the 1982- 84 base was 2.19964. The July 2008 equivalents for the above years are as follows: 1972 dollars = .190 of the 2008 dollar; 1974 = .224; 1978 = .331; 1980 = .375; 1984 = .482; 1986 = .498; 1990 = .594; 1992 = .638; 1996 = .713; 1998 = .741; 2002 = .818; 2004 = .859. 3CPV = cost per general election vote, total amount spent in 2008$ divided by total votes cast in the general election. 4Party% = party of winning candidate and the winner’s % share of the vote. 5Spent most % = which party’s candidate spent the most money in the campaign and the % share of that spending. Sources: Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa/ Richard E. Cohen, The Almanac of American Politics, ( Washington, DC: National Journal) published in the years following each of the elections, 1978 to 2008, and the Federal Elections Commission Web site: www. fec. gov |
OCLC number | 33849908 |