North Carolina datanet

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{ T H E P R O G R A M O N P U B L I C L I F E }
FERREL GUILLORY
Director
guillor y@ unc. edu
THAD BEYLE
Associate Director
beyle@ email. unc. edu
TODD BRANTLEY
Graduate Associate
jtbrant1@ email. unc. edu
HODDING CARTER, I I I
Leadership Fellow
hoddingcarter@ unc. edu
ANDREW HOLTON
Assistant Director for Research
holton@ unc. edu
JUSTIN MARTIN
Graduate Associate
martinjd@ email. unc. edu
D. LEROY TOWNS
Research Fellow
dltowns@ email. unc. edu
THE PROGRAM ON PUBLIC LIFE
is a non- partisan organization devoted
to serving the people of North Carolina
and the South by informing the public
agenda and nurturing leadership.
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! e Program on Public Life is part of
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American South at the University of
North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
2008 North Carolina Election Primer
J U S T I N M A R T I N , T O D D B R A N T L E Y A N D T H A D B E Y L E
North Carolina, a state that hasn’t supported a Democratic candidate for president since 1976, has
become one of the nation’s electoral- vote battleground theaters.
While neither the Democratic nor the Republican presidential campaigns purchased a single
primetime advertisement in North Carolina in 2004, North Carolina voters now see the presidential-campaign
entreaties familiar to TV viewers in swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Competitive races for open seats in both the presidential and gubernatorial elections will work to
elevate turnout.
In order to provide guidance in navigating the political trends and changes in the Tar Heel state,
this issue of North Carolina DataNet offers statewide electorate information to scholars, journalists,
and voters.
Here are some findings to supplement the data we’ve pulled together:
􀂇 􀂉 Voter registration has passed 6 million, a new peak for the state.
Overall voter registration in North Carolina is up 9.41 percent from
November 2004, and most of the new voters have registered since
the first of this year.
􀂇 􀂉 However, the increase in North Carolina voter registration in
the first nine months of 2008 ( 7.8) is less than the increase in
registration during roughly the same period in 2004 ( 9.82 percent).
􀂇 􀂉 From January to October 2008, Democratic voter registration
in North Carolina was up 9.23 percent— an increase of 230,848
registrants— to more than 2.7 million. Republican registration
increased by just 2.2 percent in the same time period. Registration of
unaffiliated voters in North Carolina is up nearly 14 percent since the
beginning of 2008.
􀂇 􀂉 ! e rate of increase in registered African American voters has
recently outpaced the rate for white registration. While white voters
still outnumber black voters in North Carolina by more than three
million, the number of black registrants in the state has increased
by 12.54 percent since January 2008. Registration of white voters
is up 5.1 percent in the same period. Hispanic registration is up
sharply this year— by more than 40 percent— although Hispanics
currently represent fewer than one percent of all eligible voters in
North Carolina.
􀂇 􀂉 Neither the Democratic Party nor the GOP enjoys a majority of
public support in North Carolina. As of October 6, 2008, Democrats
comprised about 45.35 percent of registered voters in the state, while
32.4 percent were registered Republicans.
continued on page 2
1 From 11/ 2004 – 10/ 6/ 2008
2 From 1/ 1/ 2004 – 11/ 2004
3 From 1/ 5/ 2008– 10/ 6/ 2008
4 As of 9/ 27/ 2004
5 As of 10/ 4/ 2008
2 D ATA N E T
􀂇 􀂉 ! e big story in registration trends involves unaffiliated
voters, who now represent more than one- fifth of the North
Carolina electorate. While the actual numbers rose within
the major parties, both Democratic and Republican affiliation
decreased between late 2004 and October 2008 as a share
of the total electorate. Unaffiliated voters, meanwhile, now
account for 22.1 percent of all registrants, up from 18.5
percent in 2004.
􀂇 􀂉 ! is is an historic election in terms of gender and race,
in the nation and in North Carolina. Among the candidates
in the three major campaigns on the ballot, there are four
women: Sarah Palin, the Republican candidate for vice
president; Elizabeth Dole, the Republican candidate for the
U. S. Senate; Kay Hagan, the Democratic candidate for the
U. S. Senate; and Beverly Perdue, the Democratic candidate
for governor. In the presidential election, Barack Obama, the
first black candidate of a major political party, has targeted
North Carolina and made the state highly competitive in his
race against Republican John McCain.
􀂇 􀂉 North Carolina is among a minority of states that conduct
statewide elections simultaneously with presidential
elections. So the 2008 elections bring back a 12- year pattern:
elections for president, U. S. senator and governor at the top
of the ballot. ! e Republican Party last swept all three in
1984. ! e Democratic Party hasn’t won all three since 1960.
􀂇 􀂉 As was the case in 2000, metropolitan areas largely
account for statewide election turnout. In 2004, 15 of 100
North Carolina counties accounted for 51.1 percent of votes
in the presidential election. In 2000, Bush won 12 of the top
15 counties, while Gore took three. In 2004, however, Bush
won just six of the top 15 counties, and Kerry won 9. ! e
2008 presidential election will reveal whether Democrats can
continue to win in the state’s major metropolitan areas while
attracting new voters in rural areas.
􀂇 􀂉 ! e partisan line- up of North Carolina’s delegation to
the U. S. House currently stands at seven Democrats and six
Republicans. Incumbents are expected to win re- election
in 12 of the 13 districts. ! e 8th District re- match between
Republican incumbent Robin Hayes and Democratic
challenger Larry Kissell is considered a toss- up among
political analysts in a year in which polls have reported leads
for both candidates. In the 2006 election, Hayes defeated
Kissell by only 329 votes out of 121,523 cast.
Director’s Note
! is issue of North Carolina DataNet reflects the work of
! ad Beyle, associate director of the Program on Public Life who
recently retired from full- time teaching in the UNC Department
of Political Science. ! roughout his career, ! ad has compiled an
extensive data base on North Carolina politics. Justin Martin, a
third- year Ph. D. student in the UNC School of Journalism and
Mass Communication, and Todd Brantley, a master’s student in
the School of Journalism & Mass Communication and a graduate
associate in the Program, assisted in compiling charts and writing
the essay of findings.
We also thank Progress Energy for its sustained financial
assistance in disseminating DataNet and SouthNow newsletters. T
1968
1970
1966
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2002
2003
2004
2006
2008*
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
79.7% Democrats 17.8% Republicans 2.5% Unaffiliated
45.3% Democrats 32.4% Republicans 22.1% Unaffiliated
* As of October 6, 2008
Year Total NC
Voting Age
Population
# of
Voters
% of
Voting
Age
Pop.
# of Voters % of Reg.
Voters
% of
Voting
Age Pop.
Pres. Sen. Gov.
1960 2,585,000 N/ A N/ A 1,268,556 --- 52.9 D D D
1962 2,647,000 N/ A N/ A 813,155 --- 30.7 - D -
1964 2,723,000 N/ A N/ A 1,424,983 --- 52.3 D - D
1966 2,798,000 1,933,763 69.1 901,978 46.6 32.2 - D -
1968 2,921,000 2,077,538 71.1 1,587,493 76.4 54.4 D D D
1970 3,043,000 1,945,187 63.9 932,948 63.9 30.7 - - -
1972 3,541,399 2,357,645 66.6 1,518,612 64.4 42.9 R R R
1974 3,725,037 2,279,646 61.2 1,020,367 44.8 27.4 - D -
1976 3,884,477 2,553,717 65.7 1,677,906 65.7 43.2 D - D
1978 4,053,977 2,430,306 59.9 1,135,814 46.7 28.0 - R -
1980 4,222,654 2,774,844 65.7 1,855,833 66.9 43.9 R R D
1982 4,416,444 2,674,787 65.1 1,330,630 49.7 30.1 - - -
1984 4,585,788 3,270,933 71.3 2,239,051 68.5 47.4 R R R
1986 4,738,687 3,080,990 65.0 1,591,330 51.6 33.6 - D -
1988 4,887,358 3,432,042 70.2 2,134,370 62.2 43.7 R - R
1990 5,016,747 3,347,635 66.7 2,070,585 61.9 41.2 - R -
1992 5,182,321 3,817,380 73.7 2,611,850 68.4 50.4 R R D
1994 5,359,333 3,635,875 67.8 1,533,728 42.2 28.6 - - -
1996 5,499,000 4,330,657 78.8 2,618,326 60.5 47.6 R R D
1998 5,620,000 4,740,272 84.3 2,012,143 42.4 35.8 - D -
2000 6,085,266 5,122,123 84.2 3,015,964 58.9 49.6 R - D
2002 6,085,281 5,043,334 82.9 2,330,454 46.2 38.3 - R -
2004 6,483,010 5,519,992 85.1 3,552,499 64.4 54.8 R R D
2006 6,490,000 5,567,424 85.8 2,036,451 36.6 31.4 - - -
2008 7,148,000 6,041,289 84.5 ----------- --- --- - - -
NC Voter Registration & Turnout in
General Elections, 1960 – 2006
NC Voters’ Party Registration: 1966– 2008
Total NC Registered North Carolina Turnout Party of Winner
Sources: Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa, ! e Almanac of American Politics ( Washington, DC: National Journal, 1972–
2004); US Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the United States ( various years); Federal Elections Commission;
Office of the Secretary of State, North Carolina Manual ( Raleigh: Department of State, since 1966); NC State Board of Elections
web site, “ General Voter Registration and Election Statistics”; ( Note: while the figure for NC voting- age population in 2008 was
pulled from the State Board of Elections web site on 10/ 7/ 08, the BOE did not report the month in 2008 in which the figure was
estimated); NC Center for Public Policy Research, North Carolina Focus ( 1989) and “ " e Two Party System in North Carolina,”
( Raleigh, December 1987); and Curtis Gans, Committee for the Study of the American Electorate.
OC TOB E R 2 0 0 8 3
Growth of NC Voters in Presidential Election Years, 1960 – 2004
Source: Source: NC State Board of Elections 2004, 2008
1960
1964
1968*
1972
1976*
1980
1984
1988*
1992
1996
2000*
2004
1,000,000
% Growth Over 1960 Election
% Growth Over Last Election
* No U. S Senate race this year.
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
12.3%
12.3%
11.4%
25.1%
- 4.3%
19.7%
10.5%
32.3%
10.6%
46.3%
20.6%
76.5%
- 4.7%
68.3%
22.4%
105.9%
0.2%
106.4%
15.2%
137.7%
17.8%
180.0%
Change in N. C. Voter Registration
by Party, 2004 – 2008
Party Identification
Percentage of Total Registered Voters
Republican Democrat Unaffiliated
Change in N. C. Voter Registration
by Race and Gender, 2004 – 2008
Jan 2008
Oct 4, 2008
Jan 2004
78% White
19% Black
0.2% Hispanic
0.8% American- Indian
75% White
21% Black
1% Hispanic
0.8% American- Indian
76% White
20% Black
0.7% Hispanic
0.8% American- Indian
55%
55%
54%
45%
45%
45%
4 D ATA N E T
1 Month and year the poll was conducted.
2 Pollster = who conducted the poll:
CP - Carolina Poll ( UNC- CH);
IR = Independent Research Poll;
LHP = Louis Harris Poll; MD Mason- Dixon Poll;
N& O - News & Observer/ FGI Poll;
R2 = Research 2000 Poll; SUSA Survey USA Poll.
3 % Pos. = % of the respondents giving the governor
positive marks for his performance—
approve, excellent/ good, etc.
4 % Neg. = % of the respondents giving the governor
negative marks for his job performance—
disapprove, fair/ poor, etc.
Late Term NC Gubernatorial Job Approval Ratings in Polls
Late Term NC Presidential Job Approval Ratings in Polls
1 Month and year the poll was conducted.
2 Pollster = who conducted the poll:
CP - Carolina Poll ( UNC- CH);
EU = Elon University Poll;
KPC = KPC Poll for Knight Ridder Media;
MD = Mason- Dixon;
R2 = Research 2000 Poll;
VNS = Voter News services Election Day Exit Poll.
3 % Pos. = % of the respondents giving the president
positive marks for his performance—
approve, excellent/ good, etc.
4 % Neg. = % of the respondents giving the president
negative marks for his job performance—
disapprove, fair/ poor, etc.
Late Term NC US Senatorial Job Approval Ratings in Polls
1 Month and year the poll was conducted.
2 Pollster = who conducted the poll:
CP - Carolina Poll ( UNC- CH);
EU = Elon University Poll;
MD = Mason- Dixon Poll;
N& O - News & Observer/ FGI Poll;
R2 = Research 2000 Poll
3 % Pos. = % of the respondents giving the senator
positive marks for his or her performance—
approve, excellent/ good, etc.
4 % Neg. = % of the respondents giving the senator
negative marks for his or her job performance —
disapprove, fair/ poor, etc.
OC TOB E R 2 0 0 8 5
Race
Growth of NC Registered Voters, 1968 – 2008
2008 Congressional Districts in NC ( Ranked From Most Republican
to Most Democratic Districts by Party Registration)
CD# Incumbent2 Type3 Projection4 % White5 Rep. Dem. Una Pres. Gov.
6th Coble, R IRUP SR 89.2 46.5 32.9 20.5 30.7 46.4
5th Foxx, R IRUP SR 91.7 46.1 34.4 19.5 31.3 47.1
10th McHenry, R IR SR 90.1 43.3 35.9 20.8 32.1 46.3
9th Myrick, R IR SR 84.7 43.0 32.4 24.5 35.2 46.0
3rd Jones, R IR LR 82.4 36.4 42.4 21.3 32.8 50.6
11th Heath, D IRUP SW 93.8 35.2 40.3 24.5 40.8 53.1
8th Hayes, R IRUP SW 67.5 30.3 48.9 20.8 43.6 57.4
2nd Etheridge, D IRUP LD 65.7 30.3 50.9 18.9 44.1 58.8
7th McIntyre, D IRUP LD 72.7 30.0 50.4 19.6 43.7 58.7
4th Price, D IRUP LD 75.9 29.4 45.1 25.5 51.0 61.0
3th Miller, D IR SD 69.5 28.4 50.4 21.2 51.1 62.7
12th Watt, D IRUP SD 49.4 24.7 56.8 18.5 59.8 68.2
1st Butterfield, D IRUP SD 48.8 18.1 68.3 13.6 57.5 70.6
1 Party Registration, percent who were Republicans,
Democrats or Unaffiliated as of 1/ 2/ 08,
NC Board of Elections.
2 Current incumbent and party
3 Race Type = IR – incumbent running for reelection;
IRUP – incumbent running unopposed in party primary;
OP – open seat.
4 Proj. = projection of election outcome:
SR – Strong Republican; LR – Leaning Republican;
SW – Swing District; LD – Leaning Democrat;
and SD – Strong Democrat.
5 % White = percent of the registered voters who are
white as of 1/ 2/ 08, NC Board of Elections.
6 2004 Voting = % voting for the Democratic candidate
in the Presidential race [ Kerry] and in the Governor’s
race [ Easley].
Party Reg. 2004 Vote %
6 D ATA N E T
Political Lineage of US Senate Seat at Stake in 2008
Senator/ Party1 NC County Years In Senate
How Senator
Entered2 /
Left Office3
Matt Ransom, D Northampton 1872– 95 e / LG
Marion Butler, Pop Sampson 1895– 1901 e / LG
Furnifold Simmons, D Jones 1901– 31 e / LP
Josiah Bailey, D Wake 1931– 46 e / d
William B. Umstead, D Durham 1946– 48 a / LP
J. Melville Broughton, D Wake 1948– 49 e / d
Frank Porter Graham, D Orange 1949– 50 a / LP
Willis Smith, D Wake 1950– 53 e / d
Alton Lennon, D New Hanover 1953– 54 a / LP
W. Kerr Scott, D Alamance 1954– 58 e / d
B. Everett Jordan, D Alamance 1958– 73 a / LP
Jesse Helms, R Wake 1973– 2002 e / r
Elizabeth Dole, R Rowan 2003– e
1 Party: D = Democratic; Pop. = Populist; R = Republican.
2 How entered office: a = appointed; e = elected.
3 How left office: d = died; LG = lost in general election;
LP = lost in party primary; r = retired.
Presidential Voting in North Carolina, 1900– 2004
Year & Party1 NC Vote % [+] or [-] US Vote2 NC Vote % [+] or [-] US Vote3
1900- R 45.5 - 6.2 54.2 + 8.7
1904- R 39.7 - 20.3 55.2 + 17.6
1908- R 45.5 - 9.0 54.4 + 11.4
1912- D 12.0 - 12.9 4 59.2 + 17.4
1916- D 41.7 - 6.6 58.1 + 8.9
1920- R 43.2 - 17.1 56.8 + 20.6
1924- R 40.3 - 14.4 59.6 + 24.8
1928- R 54.9 - 3.3 45.1 + 3.9
1932- D 29.5 - 10.3 69.8 + 10.7
1936- D 26.6 - 9.9 73.4 + 10.9
1940- D 26.0 - 18.8 74.0 + 19.0
1944- D 33.3 - 12.6 66.7 + 12.9
1948- D 36.0 - 12.4 58.0 + 5.7
1952- R 46.1 - 9.0 53.9 + 8.3
1956- R 49.3 - 8.1 50.7 + 8.5
1960- D 47.9 - 1.6 52.1 + 2.0
1964- D 43.9 + 5.3 56.2 - 5.1
1968- R 44.2 - 3.9 42.5 - 6.7
1972- R 70.6 + 8.8 28.9 - 9.3
1976- D 44.4 - 3.8 55.3 + 4.2
1980- R 51.1 - 1.4 47.2 + 2.5
1984- R 62.0 + 3.1 37.9 - 2.9
1988- R 58.0 + 4.6 41.8 - 4.6
1992- D 50.5 + 6.0 49.5 - 4.0
1996- D 52.5 + 8.2 47.4 - 7.3
2000- R 56.5 + 6.6 43.5 - 6.6
2004- R 56.0 + 5.3 43.6 - 4.7
Republicans Democrats
1Election year and party winning the White House
2 The percentage point margin by which the NC Republican
share of the two- party vote for president exceeded [+] or
trailed [-] the Republican percentage nationally.
3 The percentage point margin by which the NC Democratic
share of the two- party vote for president exceeded [+] or
trailed [-] the Democratic percentage nationally.
4 Republican Party % of the 2- party vote as former Republican
President Teddy Roosevelt ran on the Progressive of “ Bull
Moose” Party ticket winning 30% of the vote nationally and
28.4% of the NC vote.
Sources: America at the Polls, 1996 [ Storrs, CT: The Roper
Center, University of Connecticut, 1997]: 92– 95; The State of 2
Parties [ Raleigh: NC Center for Public Policy Research, 1987]:
13– 14; Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa/ Michael C. Cohen,
The Almanac of American Politics [ Washington, DC:
The National Journal, various years].
OC TOB E R 2 0 0 8 7
Most Expensive Gubernatorial Races, 1968– 2004
1 Adjusted for inflation to the July 2008
value of the U. S. dollar.
2 CPV stands for “ cost per vote” in U. S. dollars.
Most Expensive U. S. Senate Races, 1972– 2004
1 Adjusted for inflation to the July 2008
value of the U. S. dollar.
2 CPV stands for “ cost per vote” in U. S. dollars.
The 12- Year Patter: Candidates Who
Won North Carolina When Top of the
Ballot Has 3 Major Races: 1948 – 1996
1948
President US Senate Governer
1960
1972
1984
1996
2008
Harry Truman, D Mel Broughton, D W. Kerr Scott, D
John F. Kennedy, D B. Everett Jordan, D Terry Sanford, D
Richard Nixon, R Jesse Helms, R Jim Holshouser, R
Ronald Reagan, R Jesse Helms, R Jim Martin, R
Robert Dole, R Jesse Helms, R Jim Hunt, D
John McCain, R
Barack Obama, D
Elizabeth Dole, R
Kay Hagan, D
Pat McCrory, R
Beverly Perdue, D
PROGRAM ON PUBLIC LIFE
The Center for the Study of the American South
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
CB# 3365
Chapel Hill, NC, 27599- 9127
southnow@ unc. edu
N O N $ P R O F I T
O R G A N I Z A T I O N
U . S . P O S T A G E
P A I D
P E R M I T N O . 1 7 7
C H A P E L H I L L , N C
Year Dem Rep Total Dem Rep Total CPV3 Winner
Party4 %
Spent5
Most %
1972 .470 .654 1.124 2.474 3.443 5.918 23.74 R- 54 R – 58
1974 .781 .386 1.167 3.488 1.721 5.209 5.15 D- 63 D – 67
1978 .264 8.123 8.387 .849 23.990 24.839 23.74 R – 55 R – 97
1980 .948 1.176 2.124 2.529 3.136 5.664 3.17 R – 50 R – 55
1984 9.462 16.918 26.379 20.046 35.842 55.889 25.09 R – 52 R – 64
1986 4.169 5.188 9.357 8.371 10.418 18.789 11.81 D – 52 R – 55
1990 7.812 17.762 25.573 13.151 29.902 43.052 20.80 R – 53 R – 69
1992 2.486 2.952 5.438 3.897 4.627 8.524 3.31 R – 50 R – 54
1996 7.993 14.589 22.582 11.210 20.462 31.672 12.57 R – 53 R – 65
1998 8.3331 9.376 17.707 11.243 12.653 23.896 11.88 D – 51 R – 53
2002 13.306 13.735 27.042 16.267 16.791 33.058 14.18 R – 54 R – 51
2004 13.360 12.853 26.213 15.553 14.963 30.516 8.79 R – 52 D – 51
Annual Dollars ( millions)
‘ Mother’s Milk’ and US Senate Races in NC, 1972– 20041
2008$ ( millions) 2
1The major party candidates in these elections were:
1972 - Nick Galifianakis, D and Jesse Helms, R;
1974 – Robert Morgan, D and William Stevens, R;
1978 – John Ingram, D and Helms, R;
1980 – Morgan, D and John East, R;
1984 – Jim Hunt, D and Helms, R;
1986 – Terry Sanford, D and James Broyhill, R;
1990 – Harvey Gantt, D and Helms, R;
1992 – Sanford, D and Lauch Faircloth, R;
1996 – Gantt, D and Helms, R;
1998 – John Edwards, D and R;
2002 – Erskine Bowles, D and Elizabeth Dole, R;
2004 – Bowles, D and Richard Burr, R.
2 The 2008 Dollar Equivalents are based on the
1982– 84 Consumer Price Index equal to 1000
and modified to July 2008 dollars. The value of the
July 2008 dollar on the 1982- 84 base was 2.19964.
The July 2008 equivalents for the above years are as
follows: 1972 dollars = .190 of the 2008 dollar;
1974 = .224; 1978 = .331; 1980 = .375; 1984 = .482;
1986 = .498; 1990 = .594; 1992 = .638; 1996 = .713;
1998 = .741; 2002 = .818; 2004 = .859.
3CPV = cost per general election vote, total amount spent
in 2008$ divided by total votes cast in the general election.
4Party% = party of winning candidate and the
winner’s % share of the vote.
5Spent most % = which party’s candidate spent the most
money in the campaign and the % share of that spending.
Sources: Michael Barone and Grant Ujifusa/ Richard E. Cohen,
The Almanac of American Politics, ( Washington, DC: National Journal)
published in the years following each of the elections, 1978 to
2008, and the Federal Elections Commission Web site: www. fec. gov