NC STATE UNIVERSITY

SPRING/ SUMMER 2007

A global view

on climate change:

NC State faculty and students travel the world

in their quest to better understand global warming.

IN THIS ISSUE Supernovae secrets 6 Hurricane forecasts 17 Endowment surprises 18 Statistics and Homer Simpson 23

scope A LO O K I N S I D E THE COLLEGE OF PHYSICAL AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES

PAMS Foundation Board of Directors

PAMS Alumni & Friends

2006– 07 Advisory Board

Leigh Wilkinson, President

Benton Satterfield, Vice President

Carl Allen, Secretary

Cindy Clark

Floyd Green

Scott Guthrie

Larry James

Glenn Osmond

Wayne Pace

Jack Penny

Er Ralston

Pam Robinson

Kimberly Potter

Bill White

Chuck Wachtel

PAMS Campaign

Committee

Eric Bigham

Charles Case

Eric Doggett

Suzanne Gordon

Julie McVay

Connie Moreadith

Emily Mann Peck*

Mike Peirson

Ginger Sall*

John Sall*

* Co- chairs

Bob Jordan

Liaison, University Committee

scope

Officers

Don Johnson, President

Eric Doggett, Vice President

Anita Stallings, Secretary

Kathy Hart, Treasurer

Charles Leffler, Assistant Treasurer

General Members

Charles Case

Roy Cromartie

Maureen Droessler

Stephen Frye

Ned Guttman

Lawrence Ives

Charles Joyner

Rob Lindberg

Preston Linn

Marty Mascianica

Connie Moreadith

Dale Newton

Mo Ogburn

Mike Peirson

Tom Rhodes

John Ryals

John Sall

Cathy Sigal

Cecil Smith

Glen Snider

Herb Strickler

Bill Trent

Bill White

Leigh Wilkinson

Glen Williams

Meredith Williams

Mark Wyatt

Christian Wypasek

Miriam Zietlow

Emeritus

Richard Cook

Scope is published by the College of

Physical and Mathematical Sciences.

The College is made up of internationally

recognized departments:

Physics

Mathematics

Chemistry

Molecular & Structural Biochemistry

Statistics

Marine, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences

Dean

Daniel Solomon

Editor

Anita Stallings

Writer

Sally Ramey

Contributing Writers

Tracey Peake

Ryan Boyles

Matt Burns

Design

Zubigraphics

11,750 copies of this public document

were printed at a cost of $ 8,036.00

or 68¢ per copy.

On the cover:

Professor Dave DeMaster of the Department

of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

sits near a large group of Adelie Penguins

on Torgeson Island, which is located near

the U. S. Palmer Research Station on the

Antarctic Peninsula. Photo courtesy of

Dave DeMaster.

SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 in this issue...

6

10

13

18

Dean’s message

2 Humanity’s greatest challenge?

College news

4 Realizing Possibilities Dinner honors donors, teachers

20 PAMS honors Johnson, Zhang and Morrison

Research highlights

6 Big booms in astrophysics

8 NC State’s global view on climate change

8 Antarctic research seeks to filter out the noise

9 How fast can the ocean rise?

9 Listening to the ice

10 Water woes in the birthplace of hurricanes

11 Watching the clouds

11 Learning from the past

12 The phytoplankton effect

12 The complexity of air quality

13 Following the water

14 What does climate change really mean for North Carolina?

14 College participates in campus global warming activities

15 Focusing the view

17 NC State “ upstarts” shake up hurricane season forecasting

Honors

3 Notables

3 Swallow receives UNC System teaching award

16 Chemistry dominates recent patent awards

24 Four faculty receive NSF CAREER Awards

Alumni and Development news

18 Dicky Morrison’s excellent surprise

19 Donors, College plan endowment surprises

22 Hunter establishes two statistics professorships

22 Belins establish flexible professorship

23 Limited supply: Professorships 67% off!

 2007 PAMS Alumni & Friends Weekend: October 12– 13 ( see back cover)

Just for Fun

23 D’oh! Homer Simpson in statistics class?

When we think about society’s greatest

challenges, there are several notable contenders:

disease, world hunger and war, to name a few.

But in recent months, the vast majority of sci-entists

worldwide have agreed that global warm-ing

is real, it’s serious, and there is overwhelming

evidence that humanity has caused it.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change has outlined many expected outcomes

of global warming. While the timeframe is

debated, there is little argument that in the

not- so- distant future, coastal cities will be

flooded by rising seas, forcing the relocation

of much of the world’s population, which is

largely congregated in coastal communities.

And there are other projected effects – agri-cultural

productivity will eventually suffer,

severe weather events will become more fre-quent,

and there will be extinctions of plants

and animals as habitats change. Many parts of

the world are already seeing this occur. For

example, the polar bear is threatened by its

quickly changing habitat, and several tropical

frog species have disappeared.

Imagine what this means for our grand-children,

who must live in this new, warmer

world. And we can’t stop it – research indicates

that even if we were to stop all production of

greenhouse gases today, we have already set in

motion enough change that climate will take

400,000 years to return to what we think of as

normal.

The world’s climate has changed many

times due to natural processes. We can exam-ine

geological evidence for very good infor-mation

about what to expect from a warmer

planet. We also can generate computer mod-els

that can forecast the effects. But we need to

do more research. As quickly as we think we

know what’s happening, nature surprises us.

Just recently, scientists announced that glaciers

and ice packs were melting at a rate five times

faster than previously predicted.

We must also bring a local perspective to

the issue. Most research and computer mod-eling

have been done on a global level, but the

effects will be felt on a more local level, and

will vary significantly from place to place. We

need more research to better understand what

these localized effects of warming may be.

Closely related to climate change is the

world’s growing appetite for energy. This is

what got us into this predicament in the first

place. In a very short time, we have released

into our atmosphere immense amounts of car-bon

dioxide that had been stored away in other

forms for millions of years.

What will we do about our energy needs?

What new, cleaner technologies must be devel-oped

before we, and emerging economies, build

more fossil fuel- burning plants? We’ll explore

the energy issue in greater depth in a future issue

of Scope, and our guest speaker at the 2007

PAMS Alumni & Friends Weekend will speak

on this topic ( see back cover). This issue of Scope

contains a focus on global warming itself –

perhaps our greatest challenge as a species, and

as scientists. It is up to scientists to understand

these changes, which is the first step in figuring

out how to cope with them.

Recently, NC State has had several high-profile

lectures and seminars featuring lead-ing

figures in the global warming arena. While

the news has been sobering, particularly

regarding political reluctance to change public

policy, there are many reasons to feel optimistic

about our ability to adapt.

At NC State, we have many faculty who are

working to increase our knowledge about

climate change and its effects. I hope this

information will help you gain new insights

into this far- reaching issue.

Daniel L. Solomon, Dean

2  SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 | scope

PHOTO BY ROGER WINSTEAD

Dean Daniel L. Solomon

Humanity’s greatest challenge?

In a very short time, we have released into

our atmosphere immense amounts of

carbon dioxide that had been stored away

in other forms for millions of years.

scope | SPRING/ SUMMER 2007  3

William Swallow, professor of statistics,

recently received the University of North

Carolina ( UNC) Board of Governors’ most

prestigious award for teaching.

Swallow is one of 16 educators – one from

each UNC System campus – who was presented

the Award for Excellence in Teaching by UNC

System President Erskine Bowles and Board of

Governors Chairman Jim Phillips, Jr. during a

special awards luncheon. Winners received a

prize of $ 7,500 and a bronze medallion.

These awards were created in 1994 to under-score

the importance of teaching and to

encourage, recognize, and reward outstanding

teaching.

“ It is a great honor, privilege and responsi-bility

to be a teacher. We routinely have the

opportunity to show the beauty, importance

and excitement of our subject – or to snuff out

any spark of interest,” Swallow said of teaching.

His teaching methodology is centered on

the belief that using multiple teaching styles

and empowering students is critical.

Jimmy Doi ( MS ’ 98, PhD ’ 03 Statistics), now

a professor of statistics at California Poly-technical,

said in Swallow’s nomination,

“ Although he has a definite start and finish in

mind for his presentations, he actively involves

the class members in much of the lectures,

giving the impression that the students are the

driving force in navigating the class discussions.”

Even when he was a doctoral student at

Cornell, his teaching prowess was recognized,

and he was tapped to teach his department’s

large premier statistics service course for grad-uate

students from across the university, said

PAMS Dean Daniel L. Solomon, who was a

young assistant professor at Cornell at the time.

“ Many of the techniques that I used for

teaching throughout my career – I learned from

Bill Swallow,” said Solomon. “ Fortunately, I

watched him closely, for eventually he would

graduate – and eventually, I would be entrusted

with ‘ Bill’s course.’”

“ He encourages a healthy discussion of ideas

in his classes and allows the students to criti-cally

think and become problem solvers,” said

Sastry Pantula, head of the Statistics Depart-ment.

“ He not only has high expectations for

his students, but also has infinite energy to work

with them to reach their full potential.”

Swallow’s research interests include exper-imental

design and group testing. His work

has special significance in public health

research to determine frequencies of HIV

seropositivity in various populations. He has

directed the undergraduate and graduate pro-grams

in statistics, and advised more than 230

undergraduates, 40 master’s and 13 PhD can-didates,

as well as mentored five Park Scholars.

Before coming to NC State in 1980, Swallow

was professor of statistics at Rutgers University,

where he was named 1974 Cook College

Professor of the Year. He received the Out-standing

Teacher Award at NC State in 1988,

and was named Alumni Distinguished

Undergraduate Professor in 1999. He served

on the planning/ organizing committee and the

founding editorial board for The Journal of

Statistics Education.

Swallow received his bachelor’s degree in

social relations from Harvard University, and

his PhD in biological statistics from Cornell

University.

He is retiring after 27 years at NC State.

Swallow receives UNC System

teaching award

Alex Deiters

Notables

PHOTO BY ROGER WINSTEAD

PHOTO BY ROGER WINSTEAD

Bill Swallow

Robert Beichner ( Physics faculty)— 2007

Distinguished Service Citation, American

Association of Physics Teachers

Robert Bryant ( PhD ’ 74 Mathematics)—

Member, National Academy of Sciences and

Director, Mathematical Sciences Research

Institute

Daniel Comins ( Chemistry faculty)— NC

State Distinguished Service Award

Alexander Deiters ( Chemistry faculty)—

2007 Beckman Young Investigator Award

Rebecca Doerge ( PhD ’ 93 Statistics) –

Fellow, American Statistical Association

Brent Gunnoe ( Chemistry faculty)—

LeRoy and Elva Martin Award for Teaching

Excellence

Jacqueline Hughes- Oliver ( Statistics

faculty)— Fellow, American Statistical

Association

William Hunt, Jr. ( Statistics faculty)—

Outstanding Extension Service Award

Min Jeong Kang ( Mathematics faculty)—

Outstanding Teacher Award and NC State

Academy of Outstanding Teachers

Dean Lee ( Physics faculty)— Outstanding

Teacher Award and NC State Academy of

Outstanding Teachers

Kay Sandberg ( Chemistry faculty)—

Alumni Distinguished Undergraduate

Professor

John Seely ( BS ’ 68 Physics)— Fellow,

American Physical Society

Phil Summa ( MS ’ 75 Chemistry)— North

Carolina’s Legal Elite— patent law, Business

North Carolina magazine

Russell Wolfinger ( PhD ’ 89 Statistics)—

Fellow, American Statistical Association

4  SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 | scope

Since 1999, the

College has presented

a special dinner to cel-ebrate

two groups of

people who have

helped its students and

faculty achieve their

dreams: the K- 12 teachers who inspired its stu-dents,

and the donors who support the endow-ments

that in turn support its students, faculty

and programs.

“ Saying ‘ thank you’ is just not enough,” said

Anita Stallings, executive director of Develop-ment

and College Relations. “ We started the

Realizing Possibilities ( RP) Dinner as a way to

recognize these individuals and to show them

that their efforts and support do produce con-crete

results, and are truly appreciated.”

Many times, donors contribute to various

causes, and never hear whether or not their

investment accomplished anything. Likewise,

K- 12 teachers watch their students graduate,

and may never know what happens to them

later. RP offers both groups a chance to see

the results for themselves.

Almost 200 people attended the 2007 RP

Dinner, which was held at Prestonwood

Country Club in Cary. About half of the atten-dees

are endowment donors, and the other

half includes students and faculty. Donors are

seated with the students or faculty who ben-efit

from the endowments they support.

“ This allows the donors an opportunity to

meet and visit with their award recipients,”

said Stallings. “ It also allows the students and

faculty a chance to personally express their

gratitude for the endowment support.”

Some donors develop relationships with

students that extend beyond the dinner.

“ Our endowments support a variety of

needs, which include scholarships, fellowships,

faculty support and The Science House,” said

Stallings.“ Through RP, our donors can main-tain

their connection to the College, and the

individuals or programs their funds support.”

Each year, about a half- dozen students have

the challenge of expressing gratitude that rep-resents

all of the endowment beneficiaries

within the College, and all of the students who

have been inspired by special teachers. Their

stories can be profound and touching, or

humorous and lighthearted.

Turhan Carroll explained to the crowd at

the 2006 RP Dinner that his father had died

when he was young, and his mother became

disabled. He and his brother worked to sup-port

their family while in high school, with

hopes to send Carroll to college … somehow.

Scholarships made it possible for Carroll

to attend NC State, where he double- majors

in mathematics and physics. Instead of work-ing

long hours to get by while in school,

Carroll has taken advantage of several out-standing

research opportunities.

“ Because of these funds, I have been able

to work less, and focus more on my studies,”

he said. “ I count it a blessing just to be able to

attend college, because it is very easy for some-one

in my situation to become a statistic. So

thank you for this opportunity, and thank you

for believing in me.”

Lara Pagano, a senior in meteorology, paid

tribute to her high school English teacher, Ann

Ennis of Mt. Airy, NC, at the 2007 dinner.

Severe vision problems that went undiagnosed

for several years left Pagano far behind on her

“ I learned that there are very

generous people in this world, who

recognize that some of us need a

little help starting out. By establish-ing

or supporting scholarships, you

make it possible for students to

pursue their dreams. Many of us

wouldn’t be here if it weren’t for you.

I know I probably wouldn’t be.”

Al Hopping, Physics

“ If future generations are going to realize their possibilities, schools must have

teachers like Nancy Hetrick to provide students with the potential to grow, the

passion to lead, and the power to make our world better. To Ms. Hetrick and

to all those here tonight, thank you for helping us realize our possibilities.”

Albert Blackmon, Mathematics

The Realizing Possibilities Dinner allows students and donors to get to know each other. Shown

here are Jessica Langford, Bill ( BS ’ 72 Mathematics) and Susan White and William Myers.

PHOTO BY BECKY KIRKLAND

RP

Realizing Possibilities Dinner honors donors, teachers

scope | SPRING/ SUMMER 2007  5

English skills. Ennis used innovative, personal

instruction strategies to help Pagano catch up.

“ Ms. Ennis taught me about patience and

believing in oneself. I never lacked motiva-tion–

I lacked confidence. She did not give up

on me and would not let me give up on

myself,” she said. “ In fact, because of her, I

became an even better student at math and

science, and it is because of her that my dream

of becoming a meteorologist will come true.”

Statistics major Jera Mendenhall was the

recipient of a SAS Scholarship, which also pro-vides

the opportunity to gain work experience

at the company. Her family also had financial

challenges, she told the 2005 dinner audience.

“ I started my time at NC State struggling

to collect enough financial support to make

it. And because of the generosity of one of

my College’s partner corporations, not only

am I making it, but I am living a dream I will

remember the rest of my life,” she said.

Some students explain that their scholar-ships

were the key reason they chose to attend

NC State.

“ This is an important point because our

students are frequently offered large scholar-ships

by other universities,” Stallings said.

Sarah Reising, a physics major, was one of

those students. She received the Thomas A.

Hill Scholarship and Nancy Chung Physics

Scholarship.

“ I was certainly interested in attending NC

State, but receiving these scholarships made

me feel appreciated as a student, and recog-nized

for all of my hard work during high

school.” Reising said in 2003. “ I can say that

receiving this support definitely helped me

decide to choose NC State.”

The students describe how they’ve spent

their time at NC State. Many use research

opportunities to gain experience working in

laboratories either on or off campus. Some

do field research in Iceland or other far- away

places. And still others take on leadership roles

of student organizations within PAMS or

elsewhere in the university.

“ I think it makes donors feel confident that

our students are learning to be well- rounded

participants in society,” Stallings said. “ And

that they’re taking advantage of all of the

opportunities afforded them within the

university environment.”

It’s not unusual to see a few tears at the RP

dinner, and hugs between donors, students

and faculty afterward.

“ Wherever their paths take them, our stu-dents’

ability to be successful will be directly

influenced by our donors’ support of the

College,” said Dan Solomon, dean.“ Someday,

they may make discoveries that change the

world, or save lives, or expand the frontiers

of science, or inspire the imaginations of

tomorrow’s children. We look forward to, and

celebrate, all of those possibilities.”

Frank Smith ( BS ’ 63 Applied Mathematics), center, visits with other guests at the pre- event social.

PHOTO BY BECKY KIRKLAND

“ I would really like to thank the

Mary Alice and Hubert Park

family, personally for giving me

a sense of freedom, achievement

and encouragement, but more

importantly, affording me the

opportunity to go for my goals and

live out my dreams.”

Eliza Britt, Mathematics

“ The Joyce Hall Aspnes Scholarship has allowed me to go to school without

having to work during the school year. This enables me to concentrate on

schoolwork more, without the worry of making money to help pay for

college. I will be able to graduate debtless, and that is a big plus for people

starting out on their own, especially in today’s economy. I have many

classmates who are not as fortunate as I am. “

Mary Snipes, Chemistry

“ I gained a great understanding for the subject of calculus that left me more

than prepared to enter college. But I learned a lot more than calculus from

Mrs. Norma Hill. She taught us to struggle and work hard. Nothing was

spoon- fed. She taught the facts, but more importantly – she taught me to

think.”

Karen Donaghy, Statistics

John Blondin, professor of physics, has

developed a three- dimensional computer

model that shows how pulsars obtain their

spin, which could lead to a greater under-standing

of the processes that occur when stars

die. The findings were published in the Jan. 4

edition of the journal Nature.

With colleague Anthony Mezzacappa at the

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Blondin used

the CRAY X1E supercomputer to develop a

three- dimensional model of a pulsar’s creation,

and in the process discovered that conventional

wisdom concerning the formation of these

celestial objects wasn’t correct.

Pulsars are rapidly rotating neutron stars

formed in supernova explosions, which occur

when a massive star reaches the end of its life

and explodes. The remaining matter is com-pressed

into a dense, rapidly spinning mass –

a neutron star, or pulsar – so called because

scientists first discovered them due to their

regularly timed radio emissions.

“ Picture something about the mass of the

sun being pushed down to the size of a small

American city, like Raleigh,” Blondin said.

“ That’s what happens when a neutron star is

formed.” Pulsars were discovered in the 1960s.

“ We can determine how fast they’re spin-ning

by how rapidly they pulse. It’s like a

searchlight on a lighthouse – as the pulsar

spins, a beam of radio waves sweeps the earth,

and we see a pulse. The period between the

pulses tells us how fast it’s spinning,” he said.

Pulsars spin very rapidly – 20 or more times

per second. Scientists assumed the spin was

caused by the conservation of angular momen-tum

from a star that was spinning before it

exploded.

“ Think about how figure skaters start a spin

with their arms and legs farther out from the

body, and increase their rotation speed when

they pull their limbs in more tightly,” Blondin

said. “ That’s the conservation of angular

momentum – if you take a large object with a

slight rotation and compress it down, the rota-tion

speed will increase.”

However, scientists had no idea if the stars

that produced pulsars were even spinning to

begin with. Blondin and his colleague decided

to create a computer model of a supernova

explosion using the new CRAY X1E super-computer

at the National Center for

Computational Sciences, the only computer

with enough processing power to accomplish

the task.

The resulting model demonstrated that a

pulsar’s spin doesn’t have anything to do with

whether or not the star that created it was

spinning; instead, the spin is created by the

explosion itself.

“ We modeled the shockwave, which starts

deep inside the core of the star and then moves

outward,” Blondin said. “ We discovered that

as the shockwave gains both the momentum

and the energy needed to blow outward and

Big booms in astrophysics

COURTESY OF NASA/ CXC/ NCSU/ S. REYNOLDS ET AL.

“ Supernova explosions produce many of

the heavy elements found on the periodic chart,

like gold,” he says. “ Understanding these

explosions can help us to better understand our

own planet and solar system.”

John Blondin

Two recent discoveries by NC State astrophysicists have expanded

our understanding of supernova explosions. In fact, their discov-eries

changed long- held beliefs about these massive explosions.

The Kepler

supernova remnant

6  SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 | scope

create the explosion, it starts spiraling all on

its own, which starts the neutron star at the

center of the star spinning in the opposite

direction. None of the previous two- dimen-sional

modeling of supernova explosions had

picked up on this.”

Blondin hopes that this new information

about the creation of pulsars will lead to a

greater understanding of supernova explosions.

“ Supernova explosions produce many of

the heavy elements found on the periodic

chart, like gold,” he says.“ Understanding these

explosions can help us to better understand

our own planet and solar system.”

Two other members of the Physics Depart-ment

faculty have shed even more light on

supernovae.

Professor Stephen Reynolds, Research

Associate Professor Kazimierz Borkowski and

a team of scientists from NASA, Rutgers

University and the Naval Research Laboratory,

set out to determine whether the Kepler super-nova,

which occurred in 1604 A. D., was a core

collapse supernova or a thermonuclear super-nova.

They revealed their results in a press con-ference

at the annual winter meeting of the

American Astronomical Society in January.

A core collapse supernova is the type that

leaves behind pulsars. It also tends to be sur-rounded

by circumstellar medium – leftover

material ejected earlier from the star that

collapsed, as well as large amounts of oxygen

and small amounts of iron. These supernovae

are usually located near “ star- forming” sites in

the plane of a flattened galaxy like our Milky

Way.

Thermonuclear, or Type Ia, supernovae

occur when a white dwarf star, which typically

travels through space with a companion star

that eventually “ leaks” its own mass onto the

dwarf, reaches its mass limit and explodes.

These supernovae can be found all over a

galaxy, are typically not associated with any

circumstellar medium, and produce large

amounts of iron.

The Kepler supernova has long puzzled sci-entists

because it has features that are com-mon

to both types of supernova: its location

and the presence of a lot of iron are typical of

a Type Ia supernova, but its dense surround-ings

and nitrogen- enriched circumstellar

medium indicate a core collapse.

Using the powerful Chandra X- ray telescope

to observe the Kepler supernova, the team dis-covered

that Kepler is something entirely new:

a Type Ia supernova in which the progenitor

of the white dwarf star that created it had

enough mass to create circumstellar medium.

“ We really don’t know much about Type Ia

supernovae, and they’re really important to

our understanding of the universe,” Reynolds

said. Scientists use the fact that they all have

similar brightness to calculate the distance of

galaxies and to determine how much and how

quickly the universe is expanding.

“ Type Ia’s also are the source of the major-ity

of iron in the universe, and can give us a

lot of information about its chemical history.

A new class of Type Ia supernova has huge

implications for our ability to understand the

source of the elements that create our

universe,” he said.

John Blondin and his simulation

of a shockwave within a star about

one second after the star begins

to explode.

scope | SPRING/ SUMMER 2007  7

PHOTO BY ROGER WINSTEAD; SUPERNOVA SHOCKWAVE COURTESY OF JOHN BLONDIN

8  SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 | scope

There’s a big difference between weather and

climate. Basically, weather is what happens on

a short- term basis – hours, days, weeks, months

and even a few years. Climate is the trend over

a much longer period.

It can be difficult to study global warming

because climate’s long- term trends are easily

obscured by the short- term “ noise” of weather.

Even in extreme climatic zones where

weather is more stable and global warming is

more obvious, detailed research must still

account for the “ noise.”

“ We think that ecosystems below the top

300 feet of water are suitable for tracking cli-mate

change because they are insulated to a

large extent from seasonal noise,” said Dave

DeMaster, professor and leader of a three- year

research project on the continental shelf in the

West Antarctic Peninsula region. Also partic-ipating

in the project are Carrie Thomas,

research assistant professor and co- principal

investigator, and three graduate students.

Currently, there is little information about

carbon cycling and bottom- dwelling life in this

area. The research project will provide baseline

information so that changes, such as those

responding to global warming, can be moni-tored.

In fact, bottom dwelling life may provide

a more accurate view of what’s happening across

the globe, because they are so efficiently pro-tected

from the effects of short- term trends and

events, said DeMaster.

Climate warming will reduce the duration

of winter sea- ice cover in the Antarctic

Peninsula region, which will alter the local

ecosystems and may even diminish bottom

water formation in this area. Sponsored by the

National Science Foundation, the project

includes three research cruises. The research

team will evaluate a broad range of ecological

and biogeochemical processes.

An added feature of the research project is a

Web site provided for high school students. It

will offer Antarctic- based, climate change- related

information, examples and opportunities to

communicate with researchers in the field.

From North Carolina to the South China

Sea, the ice pack of Antarctica to the jun-gles

of Costa Rica, researchers at NC State

are exploring the far- reaching effects of

global climate change.

“ Many of the Department of Marine,

Earth and Atmospheric Sciences’ ( MEAS)

research areas overlap with global warm-ing

and its effects,” said John Fountain,

department head. “ Because this is such

an important area, many of our faculty

have specifically included global climate

change in their work.”

One of the challenges facing scientists

is that the complex, and sometimes deli-cate,

relationships and connections

between earth systems were not fully

understood to begin with— and now, many

of these systems are undergoing profound

changes.

On pages 8 through 15, we review sev-eral

examples of the department’s global

warming- related research efforts.

Some may surprise you.

Moonrise over Antarctica’s Bransfield Strait

PHOTOS THIS PAGE COURTESY OF DAVE DEMASTER

Faculty member Carrie Thomas and graduate student Pam Price are shown sampling sediment

cores from the Antarctic continental shelf. The measurement of organic carbon contents in the

sediment and rates of microbial activity provide important information about how the seabed is

responding to seasonal changes in primary production and long- term climate variations.

Antarctic research seeks to filter

out the noise

NC State’s

global view

on climate

change

Perhaps the image most people visualize

when they hear about global warming is ice

breaking off glaciers into the ocean.

Scientists have monitored ice lost from

glaciers and surface ice packs for years – it

was one of the first signs that something was

amiss climatologically. Now we’re seeking

better ways to monitor it.

Del Bohnenstiehl, an assistant professor who

specializes in marine geology and geophysics,

is in the early stages of developing a new way

to listen to what the ice is telling us – literally.

“ Hydrophones– underwater microphones

– that are moored around Antarctica can be

used to monitor ice breakup and movement,”

he said. “ Ice- generated sounds can help us

track large icebergs.”

The overall level of ice- related noise may

show a long- term correlation with the rate of

ice breakup, he explained. If so, this remote

sensing- ability would prove useful in an inac-cessible

environment hostile to humans.

In addition to its relevance to climate

change, ice breakup can increase ocean noise,

which can negatively impact sound- sensitive

marine mammal populations. Bohnenstiehl

seeks to learn more about this, as well.

Climate change raises important questions

about the rise of the oceans. Will the sea level

rise slowly enough that societies can adjust to

them? How fast could the sea level rise during

the next 100 years?

Research shows that under current con-ditions,

the average rate of sea- level rise is

about 3 mm per year. Will this rate continue?

Using seismic equipment and coring devices

to study sediments on the shallow continental

shelf in the western Pacific marginal seas, Paul

Liu, Dave DeMaster and their colleagues are

trying to answer these questions.

“ The past is the key to the future,” said Liu,

assistant professor. More research is needed, but

there are indications that when the ocean has

risen very rapidly in the past, it has happened

in spurts.

“ Sedimentary and coral reef records have

shown there were at least five rapid sea- level

rising events during the last 20,000 years,” Liu

said.“ The maximum rate of the sea- level rise

reached up to 50– 70 mm per year, and lasted

200– 300 years, which caused extensive flood-ing

and damage to the coastal zone.”

“ If these events happened in the recent

past, they could happen again in the near

future,” said DeMaster, professor.

This is important because it has implica-tions

for coastal residents. Future sudden

rises may not give coastal communities time

to move homes and businesses farther

inland, and they may be at greater risk for

storm- related flooding.

In addition, barrier islands, like those of

North Carolina, may not be able to migrate

landward and may become inundated.

scope | SPRING/ SUMMER 2007  9

COURTESY OF DEL BOHNENSTIEHL

COURTESY OF PAUL LIU

Visual representation, or spectrogram, of an ice- generated sound recorded by an under-water

microphone deployed near the Antarctic Peninsula. The color scale reflects the

amplitude of the sound, with warmer colors indicating times and frequencies with the

greatest acoustic power. The banded, or harmonic, character of these signals indicates

resonance within the ice mass— much like an organ pipe or vibrating string.

Listening to

the ice

How fast can the ocean rise?

Paul Liu checks his Chirp Sonar System on the deck before sailing out from Keelung, Taiwan.

10  SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 | scope

PHOTO BY ROGER WINSTEAD

In Africa, said Semazzi, wave- like distur-bances

in the weather could provide clues as to

how tropical storms subsequently form in the

Atlantic.

As part of a five- year research project funded

by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration Educational Partnership

Program, Semazzi is using computer simula-tions

to help forecasters better understand the

genesis and evolution of hurricanes and

improve climate prediction models.

“ There may be linkages back across the

Indian Ocean,” he said.“ Weather is global, and

one small change on one side of the world

could have widespread effects.” Hurricanes

represent only a part of his research, however.

Semazzi models the role of regional climate

on the Nile River basin’s water resources. For

various reasons, international agreements– and

the latest plans to revisit the sharing of the

Nile’s waters – do not adequately take into

account the role of climate change on the pres-ent

and future seasonal rainfall, he explained.

International treaties are based on divert-ing

or sharing the Nile’s water, and Semazzi’s

computations show the river’s total volume

dropping over time.“ This could further desta-bilize

the area,” he said.

Semazzi is very familiar with political insta-bility,

having grown up in Uganda during the

reign of dictator Idi Amin. Escaping his home-land

was the reason he became a meteorolo-gist–

he had to choose an academic major that

wasn’t offered in any college in Uganda. He

received his bachelor’s, master’s and PhD in

meteorology from the University of Nairobi

in Kenya. Today, he is a professor with dual

appointments in the departments of Mathe-matics

and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric

Sciences.

His recent research indicates that a large area

of Eastern Africa has experienced an alarming

decline in rainfall of up to 20 percent during

the past 20 years. This area includes Lake

Victoria – one of the two sources of Nile waters.

If this trend continues, there could be dev-astating

implications for the social- economic

fabric of the Nile basin countries.

“ One of the major goals of my research is

to contribute to the search for a comprehen-sive

solution to the growing threat of an inter-national

water crisis in the Nile basin by clar-ifying

the contribution of global warming, and

subsequent climate change, to the regional

water problem,” Semazzi said.

Given weather’s global nature, Semazzi and

other meteorologists turn to high- perform-ance

computing to make predictions about

year- to- year climate variability and change.

Temperature, humidity, wind circulation, veg-etation

and other variables are fed into algo-rithms,

and millions of calculations are

performed to show changes that will occur

over a few days for short- term weather fore-casts–

or many years for long- range climate

projections.

“ We get solutions at many discrete spatial

points for as complete a picture as possible,”

Semazzi said.“ But we can never have a climate

model forecast for every location over the

entire world because of computer limitations

and gaps in the observed climate data.”

Much of Semazzi’s work is funded by the

U. S. Department of Commerce and the

National Science Foundation– both interested

Water woes

in the birthplace

of hurricanes

Every summer, as eyes turn to the

Atlantic Ocean for a six- month

hurricane watch, Fred Semazzi

looks farther east, to West Africa and

the highlands of Ethiopia.

scope | SPRING/ SUMMER 2007  11

in how climate affects various industries. For

simulations of potential climate changes

years from now, he factors in human actions,

such as deforestation or increased green-house

gas emissions.

“ Long- range models are really more pro-jections

than predictions,” he said. “ Some

dire projections may never come to pass

because society may respond with remedial

actions.”

Semazzi noted that NC State has all the

necessary ingredients to be a leader in pro-viding

the innovative training and mentor-ing

needed to produce the kind of diverse,

globally engaged scientific workforce needed

to tackle global warming.

“ Society needs future researchers and fac-ulty

who, in a collaborative environment, will

conceive, develop and implement ground-breaking

research to address the broad range

of interdisciplinary, ethical and societal issues

in climate change science,” Semazzi said.

– Adapted from NC State’s Results

magazine; Matt Burns, writer

Geologic evidence can reveal a lot of infor-mation

about climate changes that happened

millions of years ago. But what about the not-so-

distant past?

Rock that takes millions of years to form

can’t tell us what happened only thousands of

years ago – but the water within it can.

For example, eastern North Carolina lies

atop many alternating layers of sandstone, lime-stone,

clay and silt. The sandstone and lime-stone

layers function as aquifers and contain

groundwater that has flowed slowly through

the rock from higher elevations. Eventually,

after tens of thousands of years, this ground-water

reaches the coast. From there it flows sea-ward,

ultimately seeping into the ocean.

“ By studying concentrations of certain gases

dissolved in ancient groundwater, we can esti-mate

what air temperatures were when the

groundwater entered the aquifer system,” said

David Genereux, professor of hydrology, who

is working with student Casey Kennedy on a

paper about their research. “ Also, carbon- 14

dating of the groundwater can provide an age

to go along with the temperature estimate.”

While the work was done to better under-stand

groundwater flow, the results revealed a

significant increase of about 7.5° C in the state’s

ambient air temperatures since the last glacial

period. This increase is of an intermediate level

between other warming estimates, also based

on dissolved gases in ancient groundwater,

from Maryland and Florida.

This kind of research introduces opportuni-ties

to explore more paleo- climate information

hidden in groundwater. There are suggestions

that groundwater could even contain clues indi-cating

the season during which it entered the

aquifer system, and the changing contribution

to groundwater from cyclones.

How often do we look overhead and think

about what the clouds really mean?

Sandra Yuter, assistant professor, thinks

about clouds quite a bit. In fact, she was lead

author of a report on aerosol pollution impacts

on precipitation for the World Meteorological

Organization. The report concluded that

aerosol pollution can affect the amount, spa-tial

and temporal distribution of clouds, but

its impact on precipitation was inconclusive.

Clouds are known to play a major role in

climate through their direct interactions with

solar radiation. Precipitation from clouds is

overwhelmingly the most important mecha-nism

in replenishing ground water and com-pletes

the hydrological cycle. Changes in either

the amount or the spatial and temporal dis-tributions

of precipitating clouds may have

dramatic impacts on climate and society.

“ There are complex interactions among

environmental and meteorological parame-ters,

aerosols, and cloud microphysics and

dynamics,” said Yuter, whose focus is physical

meteorology.“ This makes it difficult to estab-lish

clear causal relationships between aerosols

and precipitation, or to determine signs of

changes in precipitation patterns.”

Yuter’s Cloud and Precipitation Processes

and Patterns research group is examining the

characteristics of low clouds and the effects of

aerosols on precipitation using satellite, radar

and other data sets.

Watching the clouds

COURTESY OF DAVID GENEREUX

Learning from the past

Doctoral student Casey Kennedy ( MS ’ 04)

prepares to collect groundwater samples

from a well in a deep NC Coastal Plain aquifer.

Measurements of carbon- 14 in the groundwater

give an estimate of the time elapsed since

the water entered the groundwater system,

and measurements of dissolved trace gas

concentrations allow estimation of the

temperature at the time the water entered

the groundwater system.

12  SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 | scope

“ The butterfly effect” might be a philosoph-ical

topic, but an NC State researcher has

discovered that tiny phytoplankton in the

world’s oceans actually do set in motion a

process that has implications for global climate.

These one- celled organisms can influence

clouds.

Nicholas Meskhidze, assistant professor,

discovered a direct link between gases released

from phytoplankton and cloud formation.

Meskhidze and colleague Athanasios Nenes

of the Georgia Institute of Technology pub-lished

their findings in the Nov. 2 issue of

Science Express, an online preview of select

articles from the journal Science.

Scientists have long thought that bloom-ing

phytoplankton play a large role in climate

control due to their production of dimethyl

sulfide, a chemical that produces aerosol

particles when exposed to oxygen in the

atmosphere. These aerosol particles in turn

are responsible for the formation of low- lying

clouds that reflect the sun’s rays.

Aerosol particles assist in cloud formation

by providing a surface for airborne water vapor

to “ stick” to so that it can form droplets.

“ In general, the more aerosols there are in

the atmosphere, the more droplets will be

formed within the cloud, and clouds with

more droplets are ‘ brighter’ and more effec-tive

at reflecting the sun’s rays, leading to a

cooling effect,” said Meskhidze.

Meskhidze and Nenes had been studying

NASA’s satellite images of clouds and ocean

color in the southern ocean, an area chosen

primarily because of its lack of human-produced

aerosol or water pollution.

“ While looking at the satellite pictures, I

noticed that cloud properties over large

phytoplankton blooms were significantly

different from those that occurred away from

the blooms,” Meskhidze said.

Meskhidze and Nenes used complex

numerical models of cloud droplet formation

to study the different ways in which phyto-plankton

may affect clouds. They discovered

that enhanced concentrations of marine

aerosols near the bloom region may be related

to the bloom’s production of isoprene gas.

When isoprene oxidizes, or combines with

oxygen in the atmosphere, it creates second-ary

organic aerosols, or SOAs. These SOAs can

“ help” aerosols to nucleate into cloud droplets.

Scientists have known that SOA from isoprene

can affect clouds, but until now, this source

was thought to be limited to terrestrial plants.

The team hopes that their study will lead to

a better understanding of the role that

ocean/ atmosphere interaction plays in climate,

and to more accurate global climate modeling.

A significant uncertainty in climate models is

the ability to predict how clouds respond to

changing particle levels– whether they originate

The phytoplankton effect

With so much attention on rising sea lev-els,

melting ice and other dramatic effects of

climate change, Yang Zhang focuses her

research on something largely unseen— the

quality of the air we breathe.

An associate professor specializing in atmos-pheric

chemistry, she works to understand the

relationships between air pollution and global

climate changes, including effects of global/

regional emissions and climate changes on

regional/ urban air quality, and effects of

regional air pollution on the global atmosphere.

If it all sounds cyclical and inter- related, it

is. That’s the problem.

“ To understand what to expect from the

responses of air quality to climate change, we

must first understand the complex two- way

interactions between regional and global

atmospheres,” she said. “ The impact of air pol-lutants

on global environments cannot be ade-quately

addressed without understanding

issues at smaller scales, and vice- versa.”

This research requires fully- coupled numer-ical

models of meteorology, climate and

atmospheric chemistry, some of which are

being developed by her research group.

Zhang’s work also involves estimating long-term

impacts of global changes on urban and

regional air quality over the next 50 years.

The complexity of air quality

These maps show predicted changes in isoprene

emissions ( A) and resulting ozone concentrations

( B) from 2001– 2051 in response to increases in

temperatures and other climate variables. Ozone

concentrations may increase up to 10 percent

over large areas in the US by 2051.

When a butterfly flaps its wings, does it set in motion a chain

of events that ultimately results in a powerful tornado?

Figure B – Ozone Concentrations

Figure A – Isoprene Emissions

S

Atlantic Oce

Antarctica

South

America

Chlorophyll- a concentration

indicates algal bloom intensity

COURTESY OF NICHOLAS MESKHIDZE

Deep in a lowland Costa Rican rainforest,

David Genereux and his students take water

samples from wells and measure stream flow.

They also climb 30- foot towers to take pre-cipitation

samples, and sometimes have to

work in mud and water to get the informa-tion

they’re after.

They’re interested in both the water itself,

and the carbon it contains.

Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse

gas responsible for global warming. A key to

understanding global warming is unlocking

the secrets of nature’s carbon cycle: trans-formations

of carbon between different

chemical forms, how it moves around in the

environment, and how it is stored long- term

in carbon “ sinks.” The ocean, which stores a

large amount of carbon, is a carbon sink.

Rainforests, because of the dense vegetation

that absorbs carbon dioxide during photo-synthesis,

are carbon sinks … or are they?

Tropical rainforests play a significant role in

the carbon cycle, but their effect on atmospheric

carbon dioxide is unclear. Global warming

raises more questions about this relationship.

Research shows that the optimal tempera-ture

for photosynthesis– the temperature at

which it is fastest– may be lower than previ-ously

thought for some tree species. In a warm-ing

climate air temperatures may rise beyond

these optimal temperatures, resulting in slower

forest uptake of carbon dioxide. Warmer

temperatures also increase the rate of decom-position

of organic matter to carbon dioxide.

These two factors mean that global warming

could turn rainforests from carbon sinks into

carbon sources, adding to the warming

problem– and to the loss of rainforest– instead

of helping alleviate it.

Genereux, professor and hydrologist, seeks

a better understanding of this Costa Rican

rainforest’s carbon cycle, and how it can vary

in response to differences in nutrient and water

availability. This requires research into the

chemistry of the water flowing into the forest’s

watershed, as well as the water flowing out.

Genereux’s research in the rainforest at La

Selva Biological Station is part of a multidis-ciplinary,

multi- institution project funded

through the Biocomplexity Program of the

National Science Foundation. His work has

shed light on an interesting feature of this jun-gle’s

carbon cycle.

“ In addition to the input of carbon dioxide

from the atmosphere, this rainforest receives

major inputs of carbon dioxide from below,

dissolved in deep groundwater that seeps

upward to streams and wetlands,” he said.“ The

carbon isotopes indicate that this carbon diox-ide

likely results from magmatic activity within

the earth’s crust.”

Costa Rica is located in a volcanically active

area, as are many other rainforests around the

globe. Some of this carbon goes into the

atmosphere, some leaves the watershed via

stream flow, and some may be taken up by

plants. Genereux wants to know how much.

“ The hydrogeologic transport of carbon is

another factor in the rainforest carbon cycle,”

he said.“ We need to understand the entire sys-tem

before we can understand its response to

climate change.”

scope | SPRING/ SUMMER 2007  13

from air pollution or biological activity. This

research revealed that marine biology can have

a strong influence on oceanic clouds.

The role of phytoplankton in cloud forma-tion,

related to its isoprene production, could

be a major factor in global climate– one that

is not included in current models, and that

seems to work in opposition to the many

factors leading to global warming.

But can blooming phytoplankton save the

earth from global warming? Maybe not, but

according to Meskhidze’s research, they do

produce cooling effects through removal of

carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and radi-ation

reflection by the clouds they produce.

“ There is still a lot we need to explore to

better understand the delicate balance in

nature,” said Meskhidze. “ It will require the

cooperative efforts of researchers from many

different fields to identify the chemical

components in these aerosols, to estimate the

amounts of this and other potentially impor-tant

gases emitted from the ocean, and to

better characterize the effect of organics on

cloud droplet formation.”

COURTESY OF YANG ZHANG

ISOPRENE is a gaseous organic compound

emitted from vegetation. Its emission rate is

highly dependent on temperature and sunlight.

Higher temperatures lead to higher emissions.

It is an important precursor for ozone forma-tion.

Higher emissions of isoprene typically result

in higher ozone episodes. It is used as an indicator

of how air quality responds to climate change.

COURTESY OF DAVID GENEREUX

Michael Jordan ( BS Geology ’ 00, MS MEAS ’ 03)

stands with an automated water sampling

device, on a metal catwalk at a stream sampling

site at La Selva Biological Station in Costa Rica.

The device collects stream water samples every

1– 2 hours during storms, for use in estimating

stream export of chemicals, including dissolved

organic carbon, from the rainforest watershed

during storms.

Using satellite data, researchers

Meskhidze and Nenes noticed

differences in properties of the

clouds that formed over the

phytoplankton bloom near South

Georgia Island in the South

Atlantic. The bloom is indicated

by the red, yellow and blue colors

near the island in these images.

South Georgia Island

ean

Following the water

Ryan Boyles is extension assis-tant

professor in the Department

ofMarine, Earth and Atmospheric

Sciences, NC State Climatologist,

director of the State Climate Office,

and a member of the NC Legis-lative

Commission on Global

Climate Change. Although many

questions remain, he provides an

overview of what local effects

North Carolinians could expect

from global warming, and reviews

challenges we already face.

The global climate models used to simu-late

global temperatures do a fairly good job

of simulating past global temperatures, so

scientists have some confidence in future fore-casts

of global average temperature. However,

while these models work well on a global

scale, they do not work well on a regional

scale. Until there are models that provide

good regional forecasts, scientists have low

confidence in any future temperature fore-casts

for North Carolina. But global warm-ing

will still likely impact the state.

Will it get warmer?

The southeast has not expe-rienced

much warming over the

past 100- plus years. Most south-eastern

states, including North

Carolina, have seen an overall

flat trend in annual average tem-peratures.

However, we have

experienced local warming in

urban areas, most likely due to

changes in local land- use pat-terns

and general urbanization.

Since the mid- 1970s, we have

seen an increase in annual aver-age

temperature, but the 1960s and 1970s

were relatively cool. But again, we don’t have

models that can provide good regional fore-casts,

so we cannot say with certainty what

temperatures we will see in North Carolina.

Recent changes in the Arbor Day tree har-diness

zone map were based on minimum

temperatures from 1991– 2005, which were

indeed much warmer. Minimum tempera-tures

are the one measure in which we’ve

seen a widespread, increasing trend in North

Carolina. Previous USDA maps included

data from the 70s, a cooler period, which are

excluded in the new Arbor Day map.

However, many horticulturists have told me

they are not recommending the new Arbor

Day map.

The National Climatic Data Center uses a

30- year period to define climate normals.

What about sea level rise?

The largest impacts will be associated with

sea level rise. The sea level along the coast has

been rising over the past century and is

expected to rise one to two feet in the next 100

years. This will likely influence the barrier

islands and immediate coastal areas, but there

are still many questions about how much

coastline may be lost. Substantial monitoring

of local sea level rise and impacts is needed.

Regardless of sea level rise, coastal devel-opment

is a point of environmental and

economic concern. How we live, work and

play along our coast is an issue we must face

even without sea- level rise. A rising sea level

will only exacerbate an already challenging

issue.

What does climate change really mean

for North Carolina?

NC State has sponsored several recent

events that focused attention on the issue of

global warming from a variety of perspectives.

PAMS and its Department of Marine, Earth

and Atmospheric Sciences ( MEAS) were

involved in some of these activities.

In response to reports issued by the United

Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change ( IPCC), NC State hosted, “ Global

Climate Change: Interdisciplinary Responses.”

The three- day February symposium came

shortly after the IPCC concluded that global

warming has begun, that it is very likely caused

by humans, and that the problem will con-tinue

for centuries. The IPCC warned that

immediate action must be taken to prevent

harmful consequences.

The symposium featured a lecture by

Elizabeth Kolbert, staff writer for The New

Yorker and author of the book, Field Notes from

a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate

Change. The book chronicles Kolbert’s global

travels and conversations with scientists and

politicians in an attempt to understand the

global warming debate.

A second lecture, co- hosted by MEAS and

PAMS, featured David Archer, a computational

ocean chemist at the University of Chicago,

and author of Global Warming: Understanding

the Forecast. The book provides a compre-hensive

overview of the issue in language

aimed at the general audience.

About 200 people attended the lecture,

which was followed by a panel discussion fea-turing

MEAS faculty David DeMaster,

Anantha Aiyyer, Nicholas Meskhidze, Yang

Zhang and Daniel Kamykowski.

In March, Ralph Cicerone, president of the

National Academy of Sciences and well- known

researcher on atmospheric chemistry and cli-mate

change, presented the 2007 Harrelson

Lecture, “ How Humans Can Cause Global

Climate Change.” Cicerone’s work has been

lauded for helping scientists better understand

greenhouse gases, ozone depletion, atmos-pheric

cycles and other elements of the climate

system.

Also in March, Waleed Abdalati, head of

NASA’s Cryospheric Sciences Branch at the

Goddard Space Flight Center, spoke as part of

NC State’s Millennium Seminar Series. He is

one of the world’s preeminent experts in cli-mate

change, overseeing NASA- funded research

on glaciers, ice sheets, sea ice and polar climate

with the goal of better understanding changes

in the Earth’s ice cover.

Abdalati also participated in a panel dis-cussion

on climate change in North Carolina

at the NC Museum of Natural Sciences.

Joining him were David Easterling of the

National Climatic Data Center in Asheville,

Fred Semazzi of MEAS and Stephen Culver of

East Carolina University.

College participates in campus global warming activities

Ryan Boyles

PHOTO BY ROGER WINSTEAD

14  SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 | scope

Will there be more frequent/ intense

hurricanes?

There are climatological factors that pro-duce

years- long cycles of greater hurricane

activity. We experienced an active period in

the 50s and 60s, and we’re experiencing one

now. Some studies suggest that overall hurri-cane

intensity and frequency may increase with

a warmer global climate. Hurricane intensity

is directly linked to ocean surface tempera-tures,

which are expected to continue rising.

However, other studies suggest we have not

seen any overall increases in intensity and fre-quency

in the past 100 years, and still others

suggest that other factors, including increased

wind shear, may prevent much or any increase

in hurricane intensity or frequency.

Either way, North Carolina is very sensi-tive

to hurricanes. We have many challenges

associated with these storms even without

global warming– again, global warming will

likely only complicate our current situation.

Will we have a shorter winter?

Trends over the past 30- plus years suggest

that winter is becoming shorter, as measured

by the number of days between the first fall

freeze and last spring freeze. But there are many

factors and complications in the historical and

future climate signals that prevent any confi-dent

conclusions.

Will we have less snow?

Snowfall is not very rare in North Carolina,

but it doesn’t happen every day, either. It takes

the right set of ingredients for snow here. A

possible scenario is that snow will still fall, but

the zones of more frequent snow may shift fur-ther

westward to higher elevations.

Will we have increased droughts? Floods?

Possibly– it is thought that precipitation, espe-cially

in the warm season, would become

more variable. There would be more dry days,

and when it did rain, it could be more intense.

However, this is very difficult to see in the his-torical

data, and models used to predict future

precipitation have very low confidence.

But North Carolina faces challenges with

drought and flooding today– even without

climate change. With increasing population,

we are placing new stresses on our fresh water

supplies. Indeed, availability and manage-ment

of our fresh water resources is likely the

biggest challenge we will face in the next 100

years– and that challenge is complicated more

by global warming.

Recent efforts have reduced the risk of

large river flooding by removing property

from flood plains, but there is increasing risk

of urban and street flooding as we continue

to grow our cities and suburban areas.

Will North Carolina’s climate become like that

of central or south Florida?

Not likely, if for no other reason than we will

continue to have consistent rainfall throughout

the year. Central and southern Florida, in con-trast,

have distinct wet and dry seasons.

The bottom line

While global warming will likely impact

North Carolina through sea level rise, and

possibly impact the state in many other ways,

North Carolinians face very important

weather and climate challenges already. More

research is needed– clearer guidance will

come with increased monitoring of our envi-ronment.

Environmental data collection is

the starting point for all future research and

improvements in both short- term and

longer- term forecasts.

It is natural to wonder how global warm-ing

will affect the area in which one lives. At

the moment, it’s hard to say.

“ Although global warming is a global

issue, its impacts are regional and non-uniform

from region to region,” said Lian Xie.

“ But there aren’t good models for this scale.”

Professor Xie specializes in the develop-ment

of climate and meteorological

computer models. He is using regional cli-mate

models and statistical methods to

scale down the effects of global climate

change to regional and local scales.

“ Information at this scale will be more

meaningful to the public, and more useful

to officials concerned about long- range plan-ning,”

he said.

Xie’s research includes assessment of the

effect of global warming on the activity of

Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons, as

well as the effect of global warming on East

Asia monsoons.

Focusing the view

scope | SPRING/ SUMMER 2007  15

The State Climate Office collects data through

environmental monitoring stations located

across the state, as well as stations operated

by other agencies. Here, a student does routine

maintenance on equipment at a station on

university property.

AVAILABILITY AND MANAGEMENT OF OUR FRESH

WATER RESOURCES IS LIKELY THE BIGGEST

CHALLENGE WE WILL FACE IN THE NEXT 100

YEARS— AND THAT CHALLENGE IS COMPLICATED

MORE BY GLOBAL WARMING.

PHOTO BY SALLY RAMEY

Discoveries at NC State fuel the economic

engine of North Carolina and the nation. In

fact, NC State is ranked as one of the best when

it comes to transferring technology to the

public. In 2006, IEEE, the world’s largest pro-fessional

technology association, ranked NC

State ninth in the nation for universities with

the most influential– and potentially most

lucrative– patent portfolio.

Each year, NC State honors university

inventors who have received U. S. Patents with

an awards banquet and ceremony. This year,

the Chemistry Department reigned supreme.

Chemistry faculty were named inventors on

11 of the 33 U. S. Patents issued to NC State in

2006. Professors Dan Comins received five, Jon

Lindsey received four, Stefan Franzen received

one, and Bruce Novak also received one.

Their achievement earned each a com-memorative

U. S. Patent plaque, presented at

the 18th Annual Inventors Awards Luncheon

and Ceremony in April.

Their patents cover a wide range of areas.

Comins’ patents relate to new chemistries that

are useful for producing novel nicotine deriv-atives.

Such compounds have potential as new

drug candidates for the treatment of neu-rodegenerative

and psychiatric disorders.

“ We would like to understand charge prop-agation

under control by light,” said Franzen

about his work.“ There is growing interest in the

use of transparent semi- conductors in a variety

of applications including sensing, information

technology and even energy production. This

invention is a demonstration of a novel set of

optical properties that provides new applica-tions

for known conducting metal oxides.”

Novak’s work involves synthesizing poly-mers,

or plastics, with a high degree of control

over their structures. Controlling the structure

lends better properties to the material such as

strength, durability and chemical resistance.

Lindsey’s patents are related to his work in

molecular data storage, which may lead to

smaller, faster and far more powerful com-puters

and other applications.

Because NC State benefits from income

generated by patents obtained by faculty, the

university and its students share in successful

innovations. From 1997- 2006, NC State col-lected

more than $ 40 million in royalties from

technology licensed to outside companies–

money that is shared with inventors and

invested in new intellectual property.

Those activities led the Association of

University Technology Managers to rank NC

State ninth in the nation among all universi-ties

for cumulative active licenses in 2007.

NC State spun out six start- up companies in

2006 based on technologies developed at the

university. North Carolina’s economy benefits

when discoveries ignite technologies that lead

to new products, new companies and jobs.

16  SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 | scope

Chemistry dominates recent patent awards

PHOTOS BY ROGER WINSTEAD

Jon Lindsey Stefan Franzen Bruce Novak Dan Comins

EACH YEAR, NC STATE HONORS

UNIVERSITY INVENTORS WHO HAVE RECEIVED

U. S. PATENTS WITH AN AWARDS BANQUET

AND CEREMONY. THIS YEAR, THE CHEMISTRY

DEPARTMENT REIGNED SUPREME.

scope | SPRING/ SUMMER 2007  17

When graduate student Tingzhuang Yan

prepared to speak to an audience of meteorol-ogists,

climatologists and other scientists at the

2006 American Meteorological Society Tropical

Cyclone Conference in Monterey, California,

he knew he was about to create a stir.

The 2005 season had seen a record- break-ing

28 named storms, including Katrina, which

devastated the New Orleans area.

All available data indicate a trend toward an

increase in the number and severity of tropical

storms, much like the active seasons of the 1940s

and 1950s. And following the 2005 season, it

was not surprising that other research groups

involved in hurricane seasonal forecasting,

including the famed Bill Gray group at the

University of Colorado, predicted another very

active season in 2006…

… except the research team at NC State.

Yan, a member of the NC State team,

shocked the audience with a very different

forecast– the 2006 season would be unusually

mild, with only five or six hurricanes, one or

two of which would strike the coast.

“ There was definitely some skepticism, and

even some snickers in the room,” said Len

Pietrafesa, who was sitting on the front row

near Gray and other luminaries in the field.

“ We were definitely taking a chance,” said

Lian Xie, Yan’s advisor. “ All of the big names

were predicting an active season.”

The 2006 research team included Xie and

Pietrafesa, both professors in the Marine, Earth

and Atmospheric Sciences Department, along

with Dave Dickey, professor in the Statistics

Department, and Yan, whose PhD thesis was

the basis for the 2006 forecast.

The team based its forecast on a new

method for selecting important predictors.

The team was not only able to forecast the

number of storms, but also the number that

would make landfall in certain areas.

Specifically, the team found a 100- year

trend indicating a relationship between the

number and severity of storms forming in

the Atlantic and the difference in sea surface

temperatures between the North and South

Atlantic ( see figures at right). In fact, this

temperature differential also seems to play a

role in the chances of these storms striking

the East Coast.

“ When the tropical waters in the North

Atlantic are warmer than normal, and the trop-ical

waters of the South Atlantic are cooler than

normal, there will be a very active season,” said

Xie. This is the pattern the research team saw

in 2005, but the temperatures in the North and

South Atlantic were essentially equivalent in

2006, indicating a mild season.

The team’s forecast went largely ignored

until later in the season. Other teams had to

alter their forecasts as the mild season pro-gressed,

but NC State’s forecast held firm. By

the end of the season, it became clear that the

“ upstarts” at NC State had produced the most

accurate forecast.

This resulted, of course, in lots of media

attention at the end of the 2006 season. And

before year’s end, NC State began receiving

inquiries about when the 2007 seasonal fore-cast

would be available.

Such research is a work in progress. There

are many complex factors that can be fed into

models for greater accuracy. But which factors?

There are many from which to choose, so the

research team is now pursuing additional

strategies.

In April, Xie and graduate student Elinor

Keith issued a forecast for an active season,

with the possibility of 12– 14 named storms

forming in the Atlantic Basin, which includes

the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico

and the Caribbean Sea. Of those named

storms, eight or nine may become hurricanes,

four or five of which have the potential to

become major storms of Category 3 or higher.

They suggest that the Gulf of Mexico is

most likely to see storm activity this year, with

a higher- than- average probability of two or

three hurricanes forming in the Gulf Basin,

and one or two likely to make landfall. Closer

to home, the southeastern coast may see

between one and three named storms, with

one or two hurricanes making landfall.

Pietrafesa’s section of the team reported that

there will be 16– 18 named storms, with the

likelihood of eight or nine becoming hurri-canes

and two or three making landfall on the

Gulf Coast. Another two or three are predicted

to make landfall along the East Coast.

All in all, the research indicates a very busy

year. Batten down the hatches.

COURTESY OF LIAN XIE

2005

2006

2007

Other teams had to alter

their forecasts as the mild

season progressed, but

NC State’s forecast held firm.

The 2005 season experienced a significant

difference in sea surface temperatures between

the warmer than usual North Atlantic ( mostly

yellow/ orange) and the cooler than usual South

Atlantic ( mostly blue). The more mottled

temperature pattern of the mild 2006 season

indicated a less dramatic temperature difference.

Note that the 2007 pattern is more similar to

2005, indicating an active season.

NC State “ upstarts” shake up

hurricane season forecasting

18  SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 | scope

Anyone who lives in central North Carolina,

or who attended NC State within the last 26

years, is probably familiar with Greg Fishel,

chief meteorologist at WRAL- TV in Raleigh.

Dicky Morrison certainly is. A longtime

“ weather geek,” Dicky is a big fan. She has reli-giously

watched Fishel’s forecasts for years.

“ In our house, no one speaks while Greg is

speaking,” joked Dicky’s husband, Bob. “ We

cannot proceed with dinner while he is doing

the evening forecast, and we cannot retire until

his 11 p. m. forecast.”

While Dicky’s devoted monitoring of the

weather forecast may be the brunt of good-natured

family jokes, Dicky’s interest in

meteorology has always been sincere. So, Bob

decided to honor her hobby with a surprise,

and engaged the help of the College.

One evening in January, Bob gathered the

couple’s two children and their families together

for a large, private family dinner at the Cardinal

Club in downtown Raleigh. While they were

enjoying pre- dinner drinks, Dan Solomon, dean

of the College, and Anita Stallings, executive

director of Development and College Relations,

“ just happened” to wander in.

Because College officials participate in meet-ings

with donors, research partners, alumni

and others at various locations and times

around Raleigh, it seemed perfectly normal

that Stallings and Solomon would be at the

club for “ a meeting,” spot the Morrisons and

stop by to visit. Dicky didn’t suspect a thing.

The group socialized for a few more minutes.

Then Fishel walked in.

He was accompanied by Mike Trexler ( BS

’ 94 Meteorology, MS ’ 97 MEAS), a former

WRAL radio meteorologist.

The excuse for Fishel’s presence was that, as

chair of the State Climate Office advisory

board, he was the one “ meeting” with Solomon

and Stallings. Dicky was very professional

when introduced to Fishel and still did not

suspect a thing.

A few moments later, Stallings spoke up.

“ We’re actually here tonight because we

have an exciting announcement, and we want

Dicky Morrison’s excellent surprise

PHOTO COURTESY OF THE MORRISON FAMILY PHOTO COURTESY OF THE MORRISON FAMILY

Dicky Morrison, shown with Dean Dan Solomon, reacts to Greg Fishel’s announcement that her

husband, Bob, has established a meteorology scholarship endowment in her name.

Gathered for the Morrison family dinner were ( first row) Mandy Holt, Dicky Morrison, Bob Morrison, Michael Holt, ( back row) Emma Holt, Ann Nelson,

Robert Nelson, Brad Nelson, Trina Holt, Bill Nelson and Greg Fishel.

all of you to be the first to hear it,” she said,

turning toward Fishel.

Fishel then explained that in honor of

Dicky’s love for meteorology, Bob had estab-lished

the Dicky Morrison Undergraduate

Meteorology Scholarship Endowment.

Dicky, finally realizing that she had been

set up, squealed, “ Bob! Did you know about

this? Bob?”

After the announcement and before dinner,

Trexler, an alumnus of NC State’s a cappella

group, The Grains of Time, teamed with pianist

Laura Young for a medley of weather- related

songs. Both friends of the Morrisons, they

performed,“ They Call the Wind Maria,”“ The

Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow,”“ Blue Skies”

and others.

After some satisfied laughs, some personal

remarks, and a few photos, the group enjoyed

dinner together. Bob had thought of every-thing–

the menu was based on a weather

theme. Even the table’s floral arrangements

displayed flowers and greenery representing

all four seasons.

This is only the second meteorology

scholarship within the College, and because

of growth in that program, the scholarship

fills a critical need.

Morrison took advantage of his former

employer’s matching gift program – some cor-porations

match their employees’ charitable

contributions even after they have retired.

“ Because of our interest in supporting

higher education, and specifically PAMS, I

could think of no better way to honor Dicky’s

fascination with meteorology than through

this scholarship,” Bob said.

“ I really can’t believe this,” Dicky said.“ This

is just wonderful!”

“ Isn’t it great when a plan comes together?”

said Stallings. “ It isn’t every day that you can

throw a surprise endowment party.”

scope | SPRING/ SUMMER 2007  19

In retrospect, we should have seen it coming.

In the last issue of Scope, there was a story that

explained how PAMS recently began holding

endowment signing ceremonies. These events

allow the College to personally thank the donor,

and provide the donor with an opportunity to

express their thoughts about the gift, the per-son

they may be honoring by the gift, and what

they hope the gift will accomplish.

“ Many of our endowments were established

in memory or in honor of someone special or

inspirational to the donor,” said Anita Stallings,

executive director of Development and College

Relations. “ So we probably should have

expected that donors would see the ceremonies

as a way to surprise the person they wish to

honor with an endowment.”

Since January, PAMS has helped donors

secretly spring the news onto three unsuspect-ing

honorees. The story at left details the first

surprise, which did not include signing the

paperwork, but served the same purpose

through the remarks and sentiments shared.

The next “ victim” was David Haase, director

of The Science House. He thought he was going

to an evening meeting about fundraising and

donor stewardship. But when he walked into

the conference room, he found his wife, Jenny,

and son, Glen, PAMS and university officials,

coworker Sharon Schulze and refreshments

waiting for him. Dean Dan Solomon delighted

in taking away Haase’s cup of coffee and replac-ing

it with a flute of champagne.

Sharon Schulze, associate director of The

Science House, had been so inspired by Haase’s

commitment to K– 12 science and mathemat-ics

education that she established an endow-ment

in his honor. The David G. Haase

Endowment for The Science House will

support the organization and its outreach

programs, such as school demonstrations, stu-dent

science camps and teacher worshops.

“ I was so deeply touched,” Haase said.“ This

is an incredible honor and a huge surprise.”

The surprise almost wasn’t. Haase showed

up elsewhere in the building ahead of sched-ule

and only luck prevented him from seeing

his family arrive. They were quickly ushered

to the conference room so he wouldn’t run

into them.

The third surprise happened during the

spring luncheon for the PAMS Foundation

board of directors. Board member and former

foundation president Michael Peirson and his

wife, Lee, had chosen to share their endowment

signing ceremony with the board. Their endow-ment

also will support The Science House, and

Haase was there to participate in the ceremony.

Solomon explained the purpose of endow-ment

signing ceremonies to the board. He

described, with some glee, Haase’s recent sur-prise

before introducing him to speak about

the Peirson’s gift.

That’s when Haase announced that the

tables had been turned– the Peirsons were

naming their endowment after Solomon, who

was– quite satisfyingly– shocked by the news.

“ Lee and I are grateful for the opportunity

to say thank you in a small way so your name

will forever be linked to The Science House,”

said Peirson.

Will the surprise endowment trend con-tinue?

Time will tell, but the College is happy

to conspire with donors.

“ It’s a little challenging to plan in secret, but

we’re delighted to help donors with surprises if

they feel it will make their endowment gift more

meaningful,” said Stallings.“ And it’s fun!”

Glen, David and Jenny Haase with Sharon Schulze

Donors, College plan endowment surprises

PHOTO BY DENISE HUBBARD

20  SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 | scope

PAMS honors Don Johnson as

2006 Distinguished Alumnus

W. Donald “ Don” Johnson was selected as

the College’s 2006 Distinguished Alumnus.

In addition to the College dinner, he attended

a university event where each college’s dis-tinguished

alumni were celebrated.

Established in 1990, this award recognizes

alumni whose exceptional achievements in

business, education, research or public service

have brought honor and distinction to the

College and NC State.

“ Don is an esteemed alumnus of our College,

a distinguished figure in his profession, and a

leader at the highest levels of one of the world’s

most prominent, innovative companies,” said

Daniel L. Solomon, dean of PAMS.

Johnson was raised on a farm in Buies

Creek, North Carolina. He attended Campbell

University for two years before transferring to

NC State in 1967. He graduated summa cum

laude in applied mathematics in 1969, and went

on to earn a master’s degree in mechanical

engineering in 1971, and a PhD in mechanical

engineering in 1974.

He began his career with DuPont in 1974

at a plant in Kinston, and has been with the

company ever since. He has held numerous

positions in management, and has held key

positions associated with several of the com-pany’s

key product lines, including Dacron

polyester, Tyvek and Teflon.

Johnson held corporate strategy and busi-ness

development assignments at corporate

headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, before

relocating to Geneva, Switzerland, where he had

responsibility for the European Nonwovens and

Advanced Fiber Systems businesses.

His other leadership posts have included

national and international executive positions

for Kevlar, DuPont Advanced Fiber Systems,

DuPont Nylon in North America, Nylon

Worldwide and DuPont Operations &

Services. In 2004, he was named group vice

president for DuPont Global Operations &

Engineering, which consolidated all global

operations and engineering into one unit.

Johnson was named to his current position

in April 2006. He now serves as chairman and

representative director for DuPont- Japan.

Johnson has played an active role in serv-ing

his community. He began this service dur-ing

graduate school as an on- campus solicitor

for the Wolfpack Club fund drive. He has held

positions on the boards of directors for the

Delaware Heart Association and the Delaware

United Way. He has served his profession

through director and chair positions with the

American Manmade Fibers Association.

Always remaining close to NC State,

PAMS honors Johnson, Zhang & Morrison

Family, friends and faculty gathered to see the College honor

three individuals at its annual awards dinner, held at the

Cardinal Club in downtown Raleigh.

Dean Dan Solomon, Don Johnson,

Ji Zhang and Bob Morrison

PHOTO BY SALLY RAMEY

Johnson has served as vice president, and cur-rently

as president, of the NCSU Physical and

Mathematical Sciences Foundation board of

directors, and has been a member of the board

since 1998. He also is a member of the

Chancellor’s Circle and has given generously

to programs of the College.

Ji Zhang receives 2006 Medal

of Achievement

Ji Zhang of Basking Ridge, New Jersey,

received the 2006 PAMS Medal of

Achievement. The award recognizes alumni

of the College who have excelled through their

chosen profession or public service, and

proven themselves destined to make a signif-icant

impact on science, government, educa-tion,

business or industry.

He received his BS in mathematics and MS

in mathematics and probability from Peking

University in Beijing, China, in 1982 and 1985.

After receiving his PhD in statistics from

NC State in 1990, Zhang spent 13 years as a

biometrician and senior director of biostatis-tics

at Merck Research Laboratories. While

there, he managed the statistical support for

the successful development and marketing of

several compounds. And he secured an ongo-ing

fellowship program from Merck for NC

State’s Statistics Department.

Zhang left Merck in 2003 to join the world’s

third largest pharmaceutical company. As vice

president of biostatistics at France- based Sanofi-

Synthelabo Research, he was responsible for

world- wide biostatistical and programming

support for discovery, preclinical and

clinical research. His title changed

to vice president of biostatis-tics

and programming in

2004 when the company

became sanofi- aventis.

Most recently, he was

promoted to vice pres-ident

of international

clinical operations and

international develop-ment,

which includes

responsibility for about

3,000 researchers and sup-port

personnel in R& D cen-ters

in 28 countries, and clinical

operational activities in many more.

Zhang is extensively published on statistical,

epidemiological methods and applications, and

medical and clinical research. The most com-mon

topics of his work involve clinical trial

development related to asthma research.

He has served his field as referee of several

journals, some for many years. He has spoken

at numerous conferences and meetings, and has

served as chair or organizer for invited sessions.

He is a member of several societies, such as the

American Statistical Association and Biometric

Society, and has contributed his time

and talents to many commit-tees

within those organiza-tions.

Zhang has main-tained

a close rela-tionship

with the

Statistics Depart-ment.

He always

attends depart-ment

socials at the

Joint Statistical

Meetings, and pro-vides

advice for the

department. Whenever

he receives an honorar-ium,

he donates it to the

department, with a match from his

company. He has hired a number of NC State

students both at Merck and now sanofi- aven-tis.

He always strives to improve relationships

between industry and academia, and looks for

funding opportunities for junior faculty and

students.

Zhang is leading a statistics

alumni fundraising effort

to establish the R. A.

Fisher Professorship

for the depart-ment.

“ We’re very

proud of Ji,

we’re excited

about his latest

achievement,

and we expect

even greater things

from him in the

future,” said Daniel L.

Solomon, dean.

Bob Morrison receives 2006

Zenith Medal for Service

Robert W. Morrison, Jr. received the 2006

Zenith Medal for Service, which recognizes

alumni or friends of the college for distin-guished

contributions or advocacy that sig-nificantly

advance the college’s ability to

make powerful impacts on science, the

economy, the environment and the quality

of human life.

“ This award recognizes our College’s

greatest champions,” said Daniel L.

Solomon, dean of PAMS.“ And

there are few individuals who

have championed our

cause with as much

determination, and

over as many years, as

Bob Morrison.”

Morrison, a long-time

senior executive

with Burroughs

Wellcome Co., has

maintained a close

connection with the

college since moving to

the area in the late 1960s.

Over the years, he served the

Chemistry Department as visiting

and adjunct faculty, and as a member of the

department’s board of visitors. A dedicated

student mentor, he advised countless students

over the years, many of whom made career

decisions based on his counsel.

Morrison has been an enthusiastic advo-cate

for the college, and was a vocal supporter

of the need to provide updated laboratory

facilities for students. The results are repre-sented

by the Marye Anne Fox Under-graduate

Science Teaching Laboratory

building, and a plaque in the Fox lobby that

bears Morrison’s name.

Morrison also obtained corporate fund-ing

for the Chemistry Department’s first

graduate student fellowships. After retiring,

he served the college through short- term

administrative assignments.

Morrison also established two scholarship

endowments for the college. One has been

supporting chemistry students since 1996. He

recently established a meteorology scholar-ship

in honor of his wife, Dicky, and her life-long

fascination with weather ( see related

story, page 18).

scope | SPRING/ SUMMER 2007  21

Each Distinguished Alumnus receives a handsome award at the university recognition ceremony and

a special gift from the College. Recipients of the Zenith Medal for Service and Medal of Achievement

receive medals, shown here smaller than actual three- inch diameter, displayed with a ceremonial

ribbon in a special case.

J. Stuart “ Stu” Hunter has established two

$ 1 million professorships in the Department

of Statistics.

“ Stu’s generosity will enable the department

to offer the J. Stuart Hunter Distinguished

Professorship and the Gertrude M. Cox

Distinguished Professorship,” said Sastry

Pantula, department head.

These are the first professorships established

for the Statistics Department. The professor-ships

will help the department recruit and

retain preeminent faculty.

Hunter originally intended to endow only

one professorship, using a matching fund

incentive offered by the state legislature to

encourage professorship endowments.

However, he was surprised to learn that there

was a double- match incentive available, mean-ing

that he could endow two professorships

instead of one ( see related story next page).

“ I was delighted that I was able to honor

Gertrude Cox with a professorship housed in

the department she built,” Hunter said. “ It is

important that we remember her legacy.”

Hunter’s own legacy also is one of which

NC State is very proud, explained Pantula.

“ We are truly fortunate to house professor-ships

named for two of our field’s most promi-nent

figures,” said Pantula.“ At NC State, we are

always mindful of our department’s history,

and the impact of our graduates and fellow

faculty on our profession.”

Hunter’s gift was celebrated at a dinner and

endowment signing ceremony at Second

Empire Restaurant & Tavern in Raleigh.

Among those attending were Statistics

Department faculty Pantula, Dave Dickey and

Peter Bloomfield, retired faculty member Al

Finkner, and department family members Vi

Rigney and Julie McVay.

“ The event brought together several of the

world’s most distinguished authorities in time

series analysis,” noted Dean Dan Solomon.“ But

the highlight of the evening was an original,

humorous musical tribute to Stu in Gilbert and

Sullivan style by our Development staff.”

Inspired by a conversation with Hunter about

Gilbert and Sullivan, Anita Stallings and Denise

Hubbard performed,“ I Am the Very Model of

a Man Who is Statistical,” rewritten by Hubbard

and Sally Ramey just for the occasion.

Hunter received his PhD in Experimental

22  SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 | scope

Jake and Betty Belin of Rancho Palos Verdes,

California, were the first to take advantage of

a unique double- matching incentive designed

to encourage professorship endowments ( see

related story at right).

The Belins have been active supporters of

the College for many years. Jake, a 1970 math-ematics

graduate, is president of Kern Oil &

Refining Company. A vocal advocate for youth

and education, he was named the PAMS 1993

Distinguished Alumnus.

In 2003, the Belins established a scholarship

endowment for students from Florida,

providing rare, out- of- state student support.

Their professorship also will provide a rare

type of support– it may be offered in four of

the college’s disciplines.

“ The Jacob and Betty Belin Distinguished

Professorship will provide incredible flexibility

in recruiting and retaining top- notch faculty in

any of these disciplines,” said Anita Stallings,

executive director of Development and College

Relations. “ We are very appreciative of their

continuing support, and this generous invest-ment,

which will allow us to compete more

effectively with other institutions.”

Dean Dan Solomon, Stu Hunter and Statistics Department Head Sastry Pantula

Betty and Jake Belin

Hunter establishes two statistics professorships

Belins establish flexible professorship

PHOTO BY DENISE HUBBARD

“ We are truly fortunate

to house professorships

named for two

of our field’s most

prominent figures.”

Sastry Pantula

scope | SPRING/ SUMMER 2007  23

Say you’re an aspiring statistician who has

just spent hours trying to figure out the answer

to a particularly thorny problem. As you plug

the final numbers into the computer program

you’re running in order to confirm your analy-sis,

an image takes shape on the screen …

Homer Simpson, working a problem on a

blackboard. What would your reaction be?

For students of Dr. Len Stefanski, profes-sor

of statistics at NC State, it’s usually more,

“ Whoa!” than, “ D’oh!”

Stefanski has developed a method for hiding

messages and pictures in data sets. These

images only appear when a student or statis-tician

correctly analyzes the data via regres-sion

analysis, a statistical process for studying

how one variable depends on others.

His innovative approach to making statis-tical

analysis fun was featured in the May

edition of The American Statistician.

“ Regression analysis is used in every sci-entific

field,” Stefanski said. “ It’s a way to

describe how one variable depends upon

other variables— for example, you can use

regression analysis to discover how blood

pressure is affected by cholesterol, weight,

diet and other risk factors. Or how tempera-tures

in different parts of the ocean might

affect the number of hurricanes that occur in

a given season.”

When statisticians do regression analysis,

they use computer programs to help them dis-cover

trends and variability within a given set

of data. The programs plot the data as dots in

an on- screen graph. A statistician looking at

the relationship between height and weight,

for example, would expect the general trend

in the graph to be that weight increases with

height— and that the majority of the dots in

the graph would fall along that trend. However,

there are always exception— people who don’t

fit the pattern or trend. These exceptions

would show up as “ scatter” in the computer

model, or random dots on the screen.

“ The challenge for the statistician is to find

the correct trend in a data set,” Stefanski said.

“ If you’ve done the analysis correctly and

extracted the trend from the data, then all you

should have on- screen when you’re finished

is the random scatter, and I wanted to find a

way to make the payoff for getting the right

answer a bit more interesting for students.”

Stefanski created a simple computer pro-gram

that allowed him to “ hide” images or

messages in data sets. When a student suc-cessfully

identifies and removes the trend data

from the set, the message or picture is

revealed in what is known as a residual plot.

He has made the data sets available to col-leagues

and the public on his Web site, and

will make the computer program he created

available soon as well.

“ It’s not a terribly efficient means of

encryption,” Stefanski said. “ But it certainly

makes statistical analysis more visually

interesting.”

D’oh! Homer Simpson in statistics class?

Opportunities remain to establish $ 1 mil-lion

professorships for $ 333,000 under a

unique double match.

The NC State Legislature provides funds to

the Distinguished Professors Endowment Trust

Fund to match endowed professorship gifts on

a 1: 2 basis. This match, managed by the UNC

Board of Governors, reduces the donor con-tribution

for a $ 1 million professorship to

$ 666,000.

However, the PAMS Campaign Committee

allocated $ 2 million as an additional match.

These funds were originally designated for

endowment in any category of need that was

unmet by the Achieve! Campaign for NC State.

Using the funds as an additional match further

reduces a donor’s professorship contribution

to $ 333,000.

The ability to establish a $ 1 million profes-sorship

at such a discounted level is an unusual

bargain for donors and a bonus for the College.

Professorships are crucial for attracting and

retaining outstanding faculty who in turn attract

top students and motivate the next generation

of scientists, scholars and policy makers.

While professorships require a minimum

endowment of $ 1 million, they are not lim-ited

to that amount. Larger endowments pro-vide

faculty with more discretionary income.

State matching funds provide up to $ 667,000

to encourage larger professorship gifts.

Limited supply:

Professorships

67% off!

Predicted

Residual

Statistics from NC State in 1954. He is profes-sor

emeritus, School of Engineering and

Applied Science, at Princeton University. He

has published extensively regarding the statis-tical

design of experiments and industrial qual-ity

control, and has served as author and editor

of several professional publications, journals

and books. Hunter has received many honors

on both the national and international level.

Hunter was the 2004 Distinguished Alumnus

of the College of Physical and Mathematical

Sciences. He also received an honorary Doctor

of Sciences degree from NC State in 2006.

Hunter continues as an active consultant to

industry and government, and is currently

developing seminars for industry in conjunc-tion

with the NC State College of Textiles. He

lives in Hightstown, New Jersey.

PHOTOS BY ROGER WINSTEAD

Four members of the PAMS faculty have

received National Science Foundation ( NSF)

Faculty Early Career Development ( CAREER)

Awards.

The NSF CAREER Award is one of the

highest honors given by NSF to young uni-versity

faculty in science and engineering, and

is intended to advance the development of

their research and careers.

Karen Daniels, assistant professor of

physics, received a five- year, $ 505,036 grant

for her proposal titled, “ State Variables in

Dense Granular Materials.” Her research

focuses on how temperature- like variables or

boundary compression impact the state of

granular systems. Systems composed of gran-ular

materials can act like either solids or liq-uids.

Improved understanding will someday

impact processing industries, geotechnical

engineering, and earthquake hazard estima-tion

by providing diagnostics to measure the

state of a granular system before it fails or jams.

Daniels received her bachelor’s degree from

Dartmouth College in 1994 and her PhD from

Cornell University in 2002. She joined the NC

State faculty in 2005.

Lin He, assistant professor of chemistry,

received a five- year, $ 590,000 grant for her

proposal titled, “ Amplification by Polymeri-zation

in DNA Biosensing.” This research

focuses on developing a new generation of

DNA biosensing technology, improving the

efficiency and accuracy of these important

medical diagnostic tools. Her research inter-ests

also include the development of nano-materials-

based mass spectrometric methods

in metabolite detection and surface- based

spectroscopic methods in membrane peptide

studies.

She received her bachelor’s degree from

Peking University in Beijing in 1996, and her

PhD in chemistry from Pennsylvania State

University in 2000. She joined NC State in 2003.

Paul Maggard, assistant professor of

chemistry, has received a five- year, $ 500,000

grant for his proposal titled, “ Synthesis of

Multifunctional Hybrids of Reduced

Rhenates and Related Systems.” His research

focuses on creating oxide/ organic hybrid

materials with an advanced structural flex-ibility

and functionality that will allow

scientists to access a wide range of new elec-tronic

and magnetic properties.

Maggard received his bachelor’s degree

from William Jewell College in 1995 and his

PhD from Iowa State University in 2000. He

joined the NC State faculty in 2002.

Hao “ Helen” Zhang, assistant professor of

statistics, received a four- year, $ 500,000 grant

for her proposal titled, “ Nonparametric

Models Building, Estimation, and Selection

with Applications to High Dimensional Data

Mining.” Her research focuses on statistical

model building and variable selection, non-linear

function estimation, and high dimen-sional

data analysis. The work has wide

applications for information extraction, data

mining, and other fields demanding massive

and complex data analysis such as biological,

medical and engineering sciences.

Zhang received her bachelor’s degree in

1996 from Peking University in Beijing and

her PhD from the University of Wisconsin-

Madison in 2002. She came to NC State in

2002.

Four faculty

receive

NSF CAREER

Awards

24  SPRING/ SUMMER 2007 | scope

Lin He

Hao “ Helen” Zhang Paul Maggard

Karen Daniels

How to

make a gift

You may remember how difficult it

was to manage the expense of higher

education. You may want to help

today’s students achieve their dreams.

The PAMS Foundation provides

many ways to support students, fac-ulty

and programs of the College.

Whether you want to contribute to an

existing scholarship, support a depart-mental

enhancement fund, make a

memorial gift or consider support in

other areas, our staff is available to

help you explore the options.

To support existing funds

To contribute to a scholarship, fellow-ship

or other fund, fill out our secure,

online gift form at https:// www3. acs.

ncsu. edu/ pams/ or mail a check to the

PAMS Foundation, Campus Box 8201,

Raleigh, NC, 27695. Make checks

payable to PAMS Foundation and write

the name of the fund on the “ notes” or

“ for” line.

If your employer provides matches

for charitable donations, please send

a completed matching gift form with

your contribution.

There are many funds not men-tioned

in this issue of Scope, and sev-eral

have specific designated uses. If

you would like information on our var-ious

funds to help you decide the best

fit for your support, please call us at

919- 515- 3462. For a list of funds, visit

www. pams. ncsu. edu/ development/

funds. php.

To explore other options

If you have questions about gift plan-ning,

we can help you identify tax ben-efits,

choose between permanent

endowment vs. one- time support, and

explore estate planning or life- income

options.

There are many ways to match your

interests with specific College needs,

and several possibilities for making

your vision a reality. Whether using

cash, appreciated stock, real estate

or a bequest, we can help you find the

best way to make the most of your gift.

Contact us at 919- 515- 3462 or by

e- mail at pamsalumni@ lists. ncsu.

edu.

Achieve! The Campaign for NC State

PAMS Campaign Goals Endowment Current Needs

Undergraduate and graduate student support $ 6,500,000 $ 3,500,000

$ 10 million will double the current level of support,

providing resources to compete for talented students

and meet financial needs

Faculty support 5,000,000

$ 5 million will endow professorships to recruit and

retain distinguished teaching and research faculty

The Science House/ K– 12 outreach 1,000,000 2,000,000

$ 3 million will create an endowment to provide

permanent support for The Science House, and fund

current teacher training and student science programs

Facilities and equipment 10,000,000

$ 10 million will support modern instructional methods

and technologies

Unrestricted support 2,000,000

$ 2 million in flexible, current gifts will allow us

to respond to exciting opportunities, urgent needs and

unexpected challenges

Research and program development 20,000,000

$ 20 million will enable us to conduct research and

develop academic programs leading to discoveries

and knowledge that enhance quality of life and

stimulate economic development

Total $ 12,500,000 $ 37,500,000

PAMS Campaign Needs $ 50,000,000

6%

The Science

House/ K– 12

outreach

20%

Facilities and

equipment

4%

Unrestricted

support

40% Research and program

development

10%

Faculty

support

20% Undergraduate and graduate

student support

Increasing endowment resources

to support students is an important

objective of NC State’s $ 1 billion

campaign. The article on page 4

highlights the impact of

scholarships, fellowships and

other endowments. At this time,

PAMS is at 67 percent of its

student support goal.

Physics Department Celebration

Rededication of Riddick Hall,

the Physics Department’s new home

Tours of Riddick labs and facilities

Alumni & Friends College

Fox Undergraduate Science Teaching Laboratory

Featuring special classes about exciting topics:

 Tsunami!

 How much does Big Brother know about you?

 North Carolina’s water challenges

 Energy options for tomorrow

 New discoveries in astronomy

 Messages from Antarctica

 Countertop Chemistry with The Science House

… and more!

Public Lecture

NC Museum of Natural Sciences

“ Powering the Planet: The Challenge for Science

in the 21st Century”

Daniel G. Nocera

W. M. Keck Professor of Energy

Professor of Chemistry

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Post- Lecture Reception & Silent Auction

NC Museum of Natural Sciences

Registration information will be mailed later this summer.

Visit www. pams. ncsu. edu/ weekend for more!